energy and development china's strategy for the 1980s
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7/28/2019 Energy and Development China's Strategy for the 1980s
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7/28/2019 Energy and Development China's Strategy for the 1980s
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7/28/2019 Energy and Development China's Strategy for the 1980s
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ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT:
CHINA'S STRATEGY FOR THE 1 98 03
by
Thomas F ingar
An O c c a s i o n a l P a p e r o f t h e
NORTHEAST ASIA-UNITED STATES FORUM
ON INTERNATIONAL P OL IC Y
STANFORD UNI VE RS ITY
O c t o b e r 1 9 8 0
7/28/2019 Energy and Development China's Strategy for the 1980s
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Copyright© 1980
The Boar d o f T r us t ees o f t h e
L el an d S t a n f o r d J u n i o r U n i v e r s i t y
A l l R igh ts Reserved Under
Internat ional and Panamer ican Agreements
Pub l ished by Nor t heas t As ia - Un i t ed S t a t e s Fo rum
on I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i c y
S ta nf or d U n i v e r s i t yS t an f or d , C a l i f o r n i a 9 43 05
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PREFACE
I . INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1
A g r i c u l t u r e 2
I n d u s t r y 2
N a t i o n a l D e f en s e 2
S c i e n c e a n d T e c h n o l o g y 2
C o n s e r v a t i o n 3
Coal 3
C o n c e n t r a t i o n 3
C on ve nt io na l F a c i l i t i e s 3
C o o r d i n a t i o n 3
I n c e n t i v e s4
ORIGINS OF CH IN A' S STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THE 1980S 5
I I I . CHINA'S CURRENT STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT: S E V E N
PRINCIPAL THEMES 8
V. S U M M A R Y
FOOTNOTES
SELECTED BACKGROUND READING
TABLE OF CONTENTS
C om bi ni ng E l e m e n t s o f P l a n n e d a n d M a r k e t E c on o mi e s 8
Co mb in in g " A d m i n i s t r a t i v e " a n d " E co n om i c" C o n t r o l s 9
Combining C e n t r a l i z a t i o n a n d D e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n 1 0
Combin ing t h e S t a t e a n d C o l l e c t i v e S e c t o r s 1 1
Co mb in in g N ew a n d E x i s t i n g F a c i l i t i e s
Making F u l l Us e o f B o t h D om es t i c a n d F o r e i gn R es ou rc es 1 2
Combin ing S h o r t - Te r m a n d L on g- Te rm C o n s i de r at i o n s 1 2
I V, E N E R G Y P OL IC IE S AN D T HE STRATEGY O F DEVELOPMENT 1 4
20
P l a n n e d / M a r k e t E c ono m ies 2 0
A d m i n i s t r a t i v e / E c o n o m i c C o n t r o l s 2 0
C e n t r a l i z a t i o n / D e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n 2 0
S t a t e / C o l l e c t i v e 2 1
23
33
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11
7/28/2019 Energy and Development China's Strategy for the 1980s
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PREFACE
Th i s s ec on d i n a s e r i e s o f O c c a s i o na l P ap e r s i s s u e d b y S t a n f o r d ' s
N o rt h ea s t A s i a - U n i t e d S t a t es For um o n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i c y p r o v i d e s a t i m e l y
o v er v ie w o f C h i n a ' s a p pr o a c h t o e n e r g y - r e l a t e d p r ob l em s o f d e v e l op m e nt . I n
r ec en t y e a r s , C h i n a ' s l e a d e r s ha ve d ev i s ed a v a r i e t y o f p o l i c y r e f o r m s an d ,
d ur in g t h e s um m er o f 1 9 8 0 , c r e a t e d a n e w b u r e a u c r a t i c o r g a n i z a t i o n ( t h e
S t a te En e r gy C om mi ss io n) c h a r ge d w i t h c o o r d i n a t i n g a c t i v i t i e s a c r o s s a b r o a d
f r o n t . T h e t a s k s f a c i n g t h e n e w C om mi ss io n a r e f o r m i d a b l e , a mo ng o t h e r
reasons b e c a u s e i t w i l l b e d i f f i c u l t f o r o f f i c i a l s t o j u d g e h o w t o d r a w
upon t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f o t h e r n a t i o n s .
A lt ho ug h t h e A s i a n r e g i o n i s r i c h l y en dowed w i t h e n e r g y r e s o u r ce s ,
th e p o t e n t i a l h a s b a r e l y b e e n t a p p e d a n d i n d i v i d u a l n a t i o n s f a c e q u i t e
d i f f e r e n t e ne r gy p ro b l em s . T h e S o v i e t U n i on bo a s t s v a s t r e s e rv e s o f c o a l ,o i l , a n d n a t u r a l ga s a s w e l l a s u n t ap pe d h y d r o e l e c t r i c p o t e n t i a l i n S i b e r i a ;
y e t p h y s i c a l , f i s c a l , a n d t e c h n i c a l o b s t a c l e s h a v e h i n d e r e d l a r g e - s c a l e
e x p l o i t a t i o n o f t h e s e r e s ou r c e s . J a p a n p o ss es se s g r e a t e c o no mi c a n d t e c h -
n o l o g i c a l p ow er b u t i s e n e r gy - p o or an d m us t r e l y a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y o n i m -
p or te d f u e l . C h i n a , l i k e t h e S o v i e t Un io n, h a s v a s t r e s e r v e s b u t t h u s f a r
has b e en u n a b l e e v e n t o a s s e s s , m uc h l e s s e x p l o i t , i t s r e s o u r c e s f u l l y .
The c o n t r a s t b e t w ee n t h e e n e r g y p ro b le m s a n d p o l i c i e s o f J a p a n a n d C h i n a
a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r i k i n g a n d o f g r e a t i m po r t an c e t o a l l w h o w o u l d u n d e r -
s ta nd t h e a t t i t u d e s a n d d ev e l op me nt al o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e i r l e a d e r s .
I t i s a p p r o p r i a t e , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e f i r s t t w o O c c as i on a l P ap er s
p u bl i s h ed b y S t a n f o r d ' s N o r t h e a s t A s i a - U . S . F o r u m d e a l w i t h e n e rg y i s s u e s .
The f i r s t i n t h e s e r i e s , J a p a n an d t h e Wo r ld E ne rg y P ro bl em b y H e r b e r t I .Goodman, d e s c r i b e s t h e p r o b l e m s f a c i n g J a p a n a n d t h e m e a su r es a d o p t e d t o
m i t i g a t e t h a t c o u n t r y ' s e x t r e m e d e pe n de n ce o n i m p o r t e d o i l . T h e p r e s e n t
paper b y T h o m a s F i n g a r , A s s i s t a n t D i r e c t o r o f t h e F o r u m ' s U . S . - C h i n a
R e l a t i on s P ro gr am , e x am i ne s t h e v e r y d i f f e r e n t c h a l l e n g e s c o n f r o n t i n g t h e
P eo p l e ' s R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a a n d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e tw e en en e r gy p o l i c y a n d
t he b r oa d s t r a t e g y o f d e ve l op m en t be i n g u n v e i l e d b y t h e p o s t -M a o l e a d e r s h i p .
Th i s e s sa y i s a r e v i s e d a n d u pd at ed v e r s i o n o f D r . F i n g a r ' s p a p e r
f o r t h e " W or k sh o p o n E n e r g y an d t h e D e v e l o p i n g N a t i o n s " s p o n s o r e d i n M a rc h
1980 b y t h e E l e c t r i c P ow er R es ea rc h I n s t i t u t e ( P a l o A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a ) a n d
S ta n fo r d U n i v e r s i t y ' s I n s t i t u t e o f E n er g y S t u d ie s . P a p e r s f r o m t h e Workshop
w i l l s o on b e p u b l i s h e d i n a v ol um e e d i t e d b y c o n f e r en c e o r g a n i z e r P e t e r L .
Auer ( E PR I / C o rn e l l U n i v e r s i t y ) . H o w e v e r , s i n c e t h e s u b j e c t i s b o t h t i m e l y
and o f p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t t o s p e c i a l i s t s o n C h i n a a n d A s i a wh o n o r m a l l y
m ig ht n o t r e v i e w t h e e n e r g y l i t e r a t u r e , w e r e q ue s t e d p e r m i s s i on t o p u b l i s h
F i ng a r ' s a n a l y s i s a s a s e p a r a t e O c ca s io na l P ap e r . W e a r e g r a t e f u l t o P e t e r
Au er f o r g e n e r o u s ly g r a n t i n g t h a t p e r m i s s i o n .
7/28/2019 Energy and Development China's Strategy for the 1980s
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I n re c e nt y e a r s , m an y a r t i c l e s a b o u t C h i n a ' s e n e rg y p o t e n t i a l h a ve
appeared in t h e p opu la r m ed ia ; U . S . gove r nmen t agenc ies have p r oduced nu -merous and va luab l e s t a t i s t i c a l assessm en ts and , du r in g t he 1975- 78 pe r i od ,
s e v er a l c om pr eh en si ve s c h o l a r l y s t u d i e s w er e pu b l i s h e d i n b oo k fo r m . S i n c e
many o f t h e s e w o r k s , a l o n g w i t h r e p o r t s f r o m t h e C hi ne se me di a , a r e c i t e di n t h e f o o t n o te s t o D r . F i n g a r ' s p a p e r, t h e appended bi b l i o g r a p h y i s l i m i t e d
t o gene r a l wo r ks t ha t p r ov ide use f u l backg r ound .
i v
Douglas P. MurrayD i r e c t o r
Un i ted Sta tes-Ch ina Re la t ions Program
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I .
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW*
W hi le p eo p l e el s ew h er e d i s cu s s t h e h i g h c o s t s o f m o d e r n i z at i o n , t h em er its o f " s o f t e n e r g y p a t h s , " a n d t h e v i r t u e s o f d i s pe r s ed an d humane
development , Ch i na ' s l ea de r s and economic t he o r i s t s e x t o l l t h e im port ance o feconomies o f s c a l e a n d t h e n e e d t o b u i l d a c o n v e n t i o n a l e ne r g y s y s t e m . '
A lt ho ug h C hi ne se l e a d e r s s e e k t o a v o i d t h e " m i s t a k e s " o f o t h e r c o u n t r i e s ,t h e i r ba s i c d ev el op men ta l s t r a t e g y i s t o f o l l o w t h e b e a te n t r a c k r a t h e r
t han e x pe r im e nt w i t h un pr ov en t h e o r i e s a nd t e c h n o l o g i e s . A s a r e s u l t , t h e y
seem u n r e c e p t iv e , so me ti me s e v e n h o s t i l e , t o s u g g e s t i on s t h a t t h e P e o p l e ' sR ep ub li c o f C h i na (PRC) s h o u l d f o l l o w a d i f f e r e n t s t r a t e g y o f d e ve lo pm en t.
They a l s o s e em s l i g h t l y bemused a t t h e w a y t h e i r a p pr oa ch h a s o f t e n b e e n
cha r ac t e r i zed by f o r e ign obse r ve r s .
The f o l l o w i n g d e s c r i p t i o n o f C h i n a ' s p o l i c i e s a n d o v e ra r c hi n g s t r a -
te gy co n t r a s t s s h a r p l y t o t h e common p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e P RC 's a p p ro a c h t o
development . B u t t h e f a c t i s t h a t t he supposed "Ch inese m ode l " has en joyedmore s u p p o r t a b r o a d t h a n i n t h e P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c . D e s p i t e p a s t p ae an s t ol o c al s e l f - r e l i a n c e a n d s m a l l - s c a l e de ve l op me n t, f e w C h i n e se l e a d e r s o r
o rd in ar y c i t i z e n s h a v e e v e r c o n s id e r ed me th an e d i g e s t e r s a n d t i n y h y d r o -
g en er at or s m or e t h a n t e mp o ra r y e x p e d i e n t s o n t h e w a y t o " r e a l " m o d e r n i z a -t i on . M o d e r n i t y , a s u nd er st oo d i n C h i na , r e q u i r e s m uch m or e: e x t e n s i v e
i n d u s t r i a l d ev el op me nt ; v a s t i mp ro ve me nt s i n h o u si n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , a n dm a te r ia l w el l - b e i n g ; a n d m a s s iv e a mo un ts o f e n e r g y .
2 F o r a v a r i e t y
o f
m i l i t a r y , e co no mi c, i d e o l o g i c a l , a n d p o l i t i c a l r e as o ns , C h i n a a s p i r e s t o
great power s t a t u s a n d t o " a l l " t h e c o n d i t i o n s a s so c i a t e d t h e r e w i t h .3Seni or l ea de rs n o w re c o gn i z e t h a t t h e s e a s p i r a t i o n s m i g h t n o t b e f u l l y
r e a l i z e d f o r a v e r y l o n g t i m e , b u t t h e y se em a da ma nt ly o pp os ed t o l o w e r i n g
n a t i o na l o b j e c t i v e s . M e r e l y t o become l e s s ba ck wa rd i s n o t en ou gh ; C h i n amust s t r i v e t o b e " m o d e r n . "
4
A l though r ecen t comm ent ar ies have se ldom m ent ioned s p e c i f i c t a r g e t
da te s, c u r r e n t p o l i c i e s a r e s up po se d t o t r a n s f o r m C hi na i n t o a " p o w e r f u l ,
modern, s o c i a l i s t s t a t e b y t h e e nd o f t h i s c e n t u r y . " T o a c hi e ve t h i so b je c t i v e , C h in a m us t r e a l i z e t h e " f o u r m o de r n iz a t i o n s, " n a me l y, i n a g r i -
c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r y , n a t i o n a l d e f en s e, a n d s ci e n ce an d t e c h n o l o g y .
5 S p e e c h e snd c om me nt ar ie s r e v e a l a l a c k o f c l a r i t y a n d / o r ag re em en t o n p r e c i s e g o a l s
and d et a i l e d p o l i c i e s , b u t t h e o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e s s e e m q u i t e c l e a r :
*The a u t h o r w i s h e s t o a ck no wl ed ge t h e m any h e l p f u l s u g g e s ti o n s o f D o ug l a s
P. Mur ray and Joh n W. Lew is .
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2
A g r i c u l t u r e . M o d e r n i z a t i o n i s t o b e a cc om pl i sh ed t h r o u g h i n c r ea s e duse o f m ac hi ne ry a nd a g r i c u l t u r a l c he mi ca ls ( f e r t i l i z e r s , h e r b i c i d e s , p e s t i -
c id es , e t c . ) , a n d t h r o u g h s p e c i a l i z a t i o n b as ed o n c o mp ar at iv e a dv an ta ge .Peasant w e l l - b e i n g i s t o i mp ro ve s t e a d i l y t h r o u g h t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f l a b o r -saving d ev ic es an d g r e a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s u ch am en it ie s a s e l e c t r i c i t y ,gaseous f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g , co ns um er g o o ds , a n d m ore a n i m a l p r o t e i n . A f t e r
announcing a n a l l - o u t pu sh f o r f u l l - s c a l e me ch a ni za ti o n, o f f i c i a l s r e a l i z e dt h at t h e e c on om ic , s o c i a l , a n d e n e rg y c o s t s w e r e mu ch t o o h i g h a n d ha ve
si nce r e t r ea t e d t o c a l l s f o r " Ch in es e s t y l e " a g r i c u l t u r a l m o d e rn i z a t i o n .
6h is appears t o m ean a t y p e o f a g r i c u l t u r e t h a t r e ma in s l a b o r i n t e n s i v ebu t a v o i d s t h e ba ck br ea ki ng t o i l t y p i c a l o f p e as an t s o c i e t i e s .
I nd us tr y. C u r r e n t p o l i c i e s s t r e s s t h e i mp or ta nc e o f e x pa nd in gboth l i g h t a n d he av y i n d u s t r y , b u t m o st i n ve s tm en t c o n t i n ue s t o b e c h a n -
neled i n t o t h e pr od uc er g oo ds s e c t o r . O f f i c i a l s i n s i s t t h a t C h in a m us tf i r s t s t re ng th en t h e i n d u s t r i a l b a s e i n o r d e r t o p r od uc e t h e e qu ip me nt
needed b y o t h e r s e c t o r s ( e . g . , d e f en s e, t r a n s p o r t , m i n i n g , a g r i c u l t u r e )
4u t t h e y a l s o h av e a d op te d measures t o e xp an d l i g h t i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n . /
Such expans ion i s needed bo th t o meet t he h i gh and growi ng domest ic demand
f o r consum er goods and t o p r ov ide expo r t ab le com m od i t i es .6 O n e f r e q u e n t l yo te d a dv an ta ge o f l i g h t i n d u s t r i e s i s t h a t t h e y come o n s tr e a m f a s t e r a ndhave h i g h e r p r o f i t r a t e s t h a n do h ea vy i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s .
9 A n o t h e r i s t h a they r eq ui re l e s s e n e r g y b o t h t o b u i l d a n d t o o p e r a t e .
1 0 E x t e n s i v eevelopment o f t h e c o a l , p e t r o l e u m, e l e c t r i c p o w e r, t r a n s p o r t , c om mu ni ca -
t i on s , an d b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s i n d u s t r i e s h as r ec e iv e d s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n . ' '
W i th i n t he i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r a s a w ho le , t h e e mphasis i s o n c o n s o l i da t i o n ,s p e c i a l i z at i o n , an d c o n c en t r at i o n o f i n v e s t m e n t .
1 2 S m a l l - s c a l e
c o l l e c t i v e
e nt er pr is es a r e e nc ou ra ge d b u t s e e m in g ly a r e l e f t t o t h e i r o w n d e vi c eswhen i t comes t o f i n d i n g mo ne y, r e s o u r c e s , a n d e ne r gy s u p p l i e s .
1 3N a ti o na l D ef en se . U n d e r s t a n d a b l y , mu c h l e s s i n f o r m a t i o n h a s b e e n
released o n C h i n a 's p o l i c i e s a n d p l a ns i n t h e m i l i t a r y s e c t o r , b u t t h e
u l t im at e o b j ec t i ve i s t o t r a ns f o r m t h e P e o pl e ' s L i b e r a t i o n A rm y i n t o amodern f i g h t i n g f o r c e . I n t h e s h o r t t e i m , e mp ha si s i s o n i mp ro ve d t r a i n -i ng a nd t h e g r a d u a l a c q u i s i t i o n o f m od er n weapons s y s t e m s .
1 4 A s n a v a l ,i r , a nd g r o u n d f o r c e s a r e m od er ni ze d a n d t r a i n i n g i n c r e a s es , e n e r g ydemands w i l l i n c r ea s e s h a r p l y . " P e o p l e ' s w a r " h a s b ee n r e d e f i n e d t o l o o kv ery much l i k e c o n v e n t io n a l w a r fa r e a s u n de rs to od i n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s .
1 5
Science a nd Te ch no lo gy. T h e a nn o un ce d o b j e c t i v e s h e r e i n c l u d e"re ac hi ng o r s u r p as s i ng ad va nc ed w o r l d l e v e l s " i n m os t t e c h n i c a l f i e l d s
and t r a i n i n g a t o t a l o f 8 0 0 , 0 0 0 p r o f e ss i o n a l r es ea rc h e rs b y 1 9 8 5 .
1 6e c hn ol o gi c al ad va nce s i n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s h a ve c o n t r i b u t e d g r e a t l y t o t h ew id en in g g ap be tw e en t h e PRC a n d t h e a d va nc ed i n d u s t r i a l s t a t e s .
1 7 C o m -i t t ed t o c l o s i n g t h e g a p , C hi ne se o f f i c i a l s h av e a t ta c he d h i g h p r i o r i t yto t r a i n i n g s c i e n t i s t s a n d e n g i n e er s , p r o m o t i n g r e s e a r c h an d d ev el op me nt ,
and a c q u i r i n g a n d a b s o r b i n g a dv an ce d t e c h n o l o g i e s .
1 8 E n e r g y r e s e a r c h
w a s
inc luded i n t h e l i s t o f e i g h t c r i t i c a l a r e a s a p p r o v ed b y t h e N a t i on a l
Science Conference he ld i n March 1 9 7 8 .
1 9 T h e i m p o r t a n c e
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R & D i s a l s o e v i d e n t i n t h e s c i e n t i f i c ex ch an ge a gr ee me nt s c o n c lu d e d w i t h
o th er c o u n tr i e s a n d b y t h e f a c t t h a t t ec h no l og y i m p o r t s a r e h e a v i l y c o n -c e nt r at e d i n t h e e n er g y s e c t o r . 2 0
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3
Even t ho ug h s e v e r a l s p e c i f i c m e a su re s h a v e b e e n a n no un ce d, a n do f f i c i a l s have c i t e d t h e n e e d f o r c ompre he ns i ve g u i d e l i n e s , i n d i v i d u a lre gu la ti on s have n o t y e t b e e n i n t e g ra t e d i n t o a f o r m a l e n e r gy p o l i c y .N e ve rt he le ss , t h e p o l i c i e s an no un ce d t h u s f a r f i t t o g e t h e r r e as o n a bl y w e l l ,
and i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a f u t u r e en er gy program w i l l d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l yfrom t h a t o u t l i n e d b el o w. H i g h l i g h t s o f t h e p ro gr am i n c l u d e :
C on se rvat i on. W a s t e i s s a i d t o b e t h e m o s t i m p o r ta n t p ro b le m o nthe energy f r o n t . A c c o r d i n g t o o f f i c i a l spokesmen, w a s t e e ns ue s f r o m
i na pp ro pr ia te use o f f u e l s , i n e f f i c i e n t eq ui pm en t, a n d c a r e l e s s p r o c e -dur es .21 I n con t r as t t o Am eri can com ment at or s who u r ge g r e a t e r use o f home
i n s u l a t i o n and r ed uc ed u s e o f p r i v a t e a u t om ob i le s, C h i ne s e o f f i c i a l s h a vefocused o n c o n s er v a t i on i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r w h er e mo re t h a n h a l f o f
a l l co mm er ci al e n e rg y i s consu med . T h e k e y t o mo re e f f i c i e n t u s e o f b o t h
f ue l and power i s sa id t o be b e t t e r managemen t.22
Coal. C u r r e n t p o l i c i e s c a l l f o r g r e a t l y i nc re as ed u se o f c o a l a san i n d u s t r i a l f u e l . B o i l e r s a r e t o b e c on ve rt ed f r om o i l - b u r n i n g t o c o a l -
burn in g, v i r t u a l l y n o n ew o i l - f i r e d p l a n t s a r e t o b e b u i l t , a n d new m in esare t o b e op en ed a s q u i c k l y a s p o s s i b l e. 2 3 F o r e i g n a s s is t a nc e a n d i m -
p ort ed equ ip me nt a r e t o p l a y a m a j o r r o l e i n b o t h ex pa nd in g a n d o p en i n gla r ge - sca le coa l m ines . 24
C on ce nt ra ti on . I n v e s t m e n t i n t h e en e r gy s e c t o r i s t o b e co n c e n -t ra te d i n r e l a t i v e l y f ew f a c i l i t i e s . 2 5 T h e s t a t e w i l l ch ann el i t s r es ou rc es
i n t o l a r g e c o a l m i n e s, t h e p e t r o le u m i n d u s t r y , a n d l a r g e - s c a l e t h e r m al a n d
h y dr o el e ct r ic ge ne ra t i ng f a c i l i t i e s . P r i o r i t y h as been a ss ig ne d t o r a i s i n gp ro du ct i on i n e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s t h r o u gh us e o f m ore e f f i c i e n t e qu ip me ntand t ec hn iq ue s; n e w f a c i l i t i e s w i l l b e b u i l t t h e r e a f te r . 2 6 T h e r en o va t i o n
of e x i s t i n g i n d u s t r i a l e n t e r p r i s e s a nd c o n s t r u c t i o n o f n e w o ne s m u st c o n -
s id er t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f u e l a nd pow er ; f o r t h e n e xt f ew ye a rs , a t l e a s t ,i nd us t r ia l development w i l l t e n d t o c l u s t e r a r o u n d e x i s t i n g c e n t e r s .
Convent ional F a c i l i t i e s . S t a t e r e so ur ce s w i l l b e u s e d p r i m a r i l yt o mo de rn iz e a n d e xp an d t h e p r o d u c t io n o f f o s s i l f u e l s a n d h y d r o e l e c t r i c
power.27 T o d e ve l op r e s e r v e s a s r a p i d l y a s p o s s i b l e , C h i n a h a s a c t i v e l ysought t h e as s i s ta nc e o f f o r e i g n f i r m s . E n e r g y e x po r ts ( e s p e c i a l l y o i l )a re e x pe c te d t o p r o v i d e a m a j o r s o u r c e o f f o r e i g n ex ch an ge a n d t h u s t o p a y
f o r a l a r g e p a r t o f t h e m o d er n iz a ti o n e f f o r t . 2 8 E v e n w i t h p ri ma c y a s si g ne dt o c o a l , d o m es t ic demand f o r o t h e r f u e l s w i l l i n c r e a se s t e a d i l y , a n d C hi n a
w i l l be ha r d p re ss ed t o s a t i s f y t h i s demand e ve n i f e x p o r ts a r e l i m i t e dand new f a c i l i t i e s come o n s tr e am q u i c k l y . 2 9 L i m i t e d r e s e a r ch s u pp o r t w i l l
be p r o v i d ed f o r w o r k o n un c o n ve n t i on a l f u e l s s u c h a s b i o g a s an d m i x t u r e s o fcoal and o i l , b u t , r e l a t i v e l y s pea ki ng , t h i s e f f o r t w i l l b e t r i v i a 1 . 3 0 B y
the same t o k e n , i n ve s t m e n t w i l l b e c o nc en t r a t ed i n l a r g e f a c i l i t i e s ;
a l thou gh s ma l l c o a l m in es a n d h y d r o f a c i l i t i e s w i l l b e en co ura ge d, s u c hdevelopment w i l l b e l e f t p r i m a r i l y t o l o c a l u n i t 5 . 3 1 C h i n a h a s r e c e n t l y
announced renewed i n t e r e s t i n n u c l e a r p o w e r p la n t s , b u t n o c o n c r e t e p l a n shave been rev eal ed. 32
Coord ina t ion . C h i n a w i l l h e n c e f o r t h p a y g r e a t e r a t t e n t i o n t omatching s up pl y a n d demand f o r f u e l a n d po w er . A c c o r d i n g t o o f f i c i a l
st ate me nts , many e n t e r p r i s e s o p e r a t e b e l o w c a p a c i t y be c au s e o f f u e l o r
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4
power s h o r t a g e s .
3 3
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have s u r e a nd ad eq ua te s u p p l i e s o f b o t h f u e l a nd p o w e r .
3 4 N e w e n t e r p r i s e si l l n o t b e a u t h o r i z e d a nd ex p an s io n pl a n s w i l l n o t b e a pp ro ve d u n l e s s a d e -
q ua te e n e rg y s u p p l i e s a r e a s s u r e d .
3 5
I n ce n ti v es . S i n c e demand s t i l l f a r exc ee ds s u p p l y , o f f i c i a l s ha ved ec id ed t o u s e e n e r g y a s a n i n c e n t i v e t o i m p r ov e e n t e r p r i s e a nd m a na g er i al
p er fo rma nc e. F o r e xa mp le , e n t e r p r i s e s t h a t t u r n o u t h i g h q u a l i t y p r od u ct sand show a p r o f i t w i l l o b t a i n a d d i t i o n a l e ne rg y. C o n v e r s e l y , f i r m s t h a t
o pe ra te a t a l o s s o r p ro du ce i n f e r i o r goods may f a c e re du ce d a l l o c a t i o n s .
3 6n t h e l a t t e r c as e, i t w i l l b e d i f f i c u l t f o r managers a nd w or ke rs t o o b t a i nbonuses, b e t t e r ho us in g, o r o t h e r b e n e f i t s . T h e g o a l i s c l e a r , b u t i t i sno t a t a l l c l e a r how t h i s p o l i c y w i l l w or k i n p r ac t ic e . T o n o te j u s t o ne
p o t e n t i a l d i f f i c u l t y , a n e n t e r pr i s e t h a t i s p un is he d b y h a vi n g i t s e ne rg ysupply reduced w i l l f i n d i t e v en m or e d i f f i c u l t t o s a t i s f y pe r fo rmancec r i t e r i a s i n c e i t w i l l h a ve t o o p e r a t e b e l ow c a p a c i t y u n l e s s t h e management
p er fo rm s t r u l y H e r cu le an f e a t s . A n o t h e r p r ob le m c on ce rn s t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r
c o n f l i c t between p la nn ed d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e n e rg y a n d p o l i c i e s t h a t s h i f t
f ue l and power t o pun ish o r r ewar d pe rf o rm ance .
The r em ai nd er o f t h i s p a p e r i s d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e s e c t i o ns . S e c t i o nI I e xa mi ne s t h e o r i g i n s o f t h e p r e s e nt s t r a t e g y o f d e ve lo pm en t; S e c t i o n I I I
focuses o n t h e de ve lo pm en ta l s t r a t e g y p e r s e ; a n d S e c t i o n I V o u t l i n e s
C hi na 's e me rg in g e n er g y p o l i c y f o r t h e 1 98 0s . T h i s o r g a n i z a t i o n r e f l e c t sthe o r de r a n d u n d e r l y i ng l o g i c o f C h i n a ' s a p p ar en t a pp ro ac h t o e n e rg yp o l i c y .
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ORIGINS OF CHINA'S STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THE 1980S
C hi na 's a p pr o ac h t o d e ve l op me n t o r , m o r e a c c u r a t e l y , t h e a p p r o ac h
f a v o r ed b y t h e d o m i n a n t l e a d e r s h i p g r o u p , d e r i v e s f r o m b r o a d l y s h a r e d
o b j e c t i ve s a nd a s s u m p t i o n s . T h e p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e s a r e t o s t r e n g t h e n
s e c u r i t y a nd i nd ep en de nc e, t o r a i s e l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s , a n d t o " c r e a t e c o n -
d i t i o n s f o r t h e t r a n s i t i o n t o c o m m u n i s m . " R e a l i z a t i o n o f a l l t h r e e g o a l s
i s s a i d t o d ep en d o n t h e p a c e a n d d e g r ee o f m o d e r n i z a t i o n .
3 7 N a t i o n a lx pe ri en ce , c om mu ni s t i d e o l o g y , a n d p e r c e p t i o n s o f f o r e i g n d e v e l o p m en t
u n d e r l i e b o t h t h e g e n e r a l o b j e c t i v e s a n d t h e c h a i n o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t
l e a ds , u l t i m a t e l y , t o a p a r t i c u l a r s e t o f d e v e l op m e n t a l a n d e n e r g y p o l i -
c i es . E a c h o f t h e s e e l em en ts m e r i t s a b r i e f e x p l a n a t i o n .
The c e n t u r y o f " n a t i o n a l h u m i l i a t i o n " w h i c h C h i n a s u f f e r e d a t t h e
hands o f s t r o n g e r p o we rs h a s h a d a p r o f ou n d i m p a c t o n t h e t h i n k i n g o f PRC
o f f i c i a l s . I n d e e d , a p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e o f t h e R e v o l u t i o n t h a t b e g a n
more t h a n e i g h t y y e a r s a g o h a s b e e n t o r e s t o r e C h i n a t o i t s p r o p e r p l a c e
i n t h e w o r l d an d t o e ns u r e t h a t i t w i l l n e v e r a g a i n b e v i c t i m i z e d b y o t h e r
n at io ns . I n a t t e m p t i n g t o e x p l a i n t h e p a s t a n d t o f r a me p o l i c i e s f o r t h e
f u t u r e , C h i ne se l e a d e r s h a v e f o c u s e d o n e c o n o m ic a n d t e c h n i c a l f a c t o r s .
A c c or d in g t o t h e i r a n a l y s i s , o t h e r n a t i o n s e n j o y e d m i l i t a r y - - a n d t h e r e f o r e
p o l i t i c a l - - s u p e r i o r i t y b ec au se t h e y w er e " mo re m o de rn . " T h e k e y t o m o de rn -
i t y i s a s t r o n g ec on om y b a s e d o n a dv an ce d t e c h n o l o g y. T h e c o n c l u s i o n i s
t ha t l a r g e - s c a l e i n d u s t r i a l f a c i l i t i e s , e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e d ev e l op m e n t , a n d
c o n t i n u o u s t e c h n o l o g i c a l a d v a n c e s a r e t h e s i n e q u a n o n o f s e c u r i t y a n di n d e p e n d e n c e .
3 8
C hi na 's p r e- 1 94 9 e x p e r i e n c e w a s g e n e r a l l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h M a r x i s t
d o ct r in e . O n e n e e d n o t a c c e p t M a r x i s t t e a c h i n g s t o a c kn ow le dg e t h a t PRC
o f f i c i a l s s t i l l c o n s i d e r b a s i c e co no mi c c o n d i t i o n s ( t h e " f a c t o r s o f p r o du c -
t i o n " ) t o b e o f f u n d a m e n t a l i m p o r t a n c e . D u r i n g t h e p a s t t h r e e y e a r s ,
s e n i o r l ea de rs h a v e s t a t e d r e p e a t e d l y t h a t t h e p o l i t i c a l , s o c i a l , a n d
ec onomic g o a l s o f t h e R e v o l u t i o n c an n ot b e a t t a i n e d w i t h o u t r a p i d m o d e r n i z a -
t i o n o f t h e e c o n o m y.
3 9 O n
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I de o l og y a l s o i s i m p o r t a n t i n a n o t h e r w ay. M o s t o f C h i n a ' s p r e s e n t
l ea d er s hi p r e c e i v e d t h e M a r x i s t g o s p e l f r o m R u s s ia n a p o s t l e s w h o o b s c u re d
t h e d i f f e r e n c e b et w ee n d o c t r i n e a n d S t a l i n i s t p r a c t i c e . y u l e a d e r s s t i l l
b e l i e v e i n t h e e s s e n t i a l w i s d o m o f t h e M a r x i s t ( r e a d S t a l i n i s t ) p a t h .
Whereas man y o f t h e K h r us h ch e v- B re z hn e v r e f o r m s h a v e b e e n e x c o r i a t e d b y
Ch ina, t h e r e h a s b ee n r e m a r k a b l y l i t t l e c r i t i c i s m o f S t a l i n ' s s t r a t e g y o f
de ve lopm en t . H i n t s t h a t t h e s t r a t e g y m i g h t n o t h a v e be e n c o m p l e t e l y c o r -
r e c t a r e b e g i n n i n g t o a p p e a r , b u t PRC c om me n t ar i e s s t i l l a ck no w le d ge an d
5
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7
C hi na 's l e a de r s h o p e t o t e l e s c o p e t h e m o d e r n i z a t i o n p r o c e s s - - t oenable t h e PRC t o g o t h r o u g h " a l l " t h e s t e p s t a k e n b y s u c c e s s f u l mo de rn -
i z e rs i n a much s h o r t e r t i m e . T h e e xa mpl e o f J a p a n i s c o n s id e r ed i n s t r u c -t i v e because i t p a ss e d t h r o u g h t h e r e s p e c t i v e s t a g e s m uc h m o r e q u i c k l yth an d i d t h e U n it ed S t a t e s . W h e t h e r mere r h e t o r i c o r r e a l b e l i e f , C h in e se
o f f i c i a l s a ss er t t h a t " t h e s u p e r i o r i t y o f t h e s o c i a l i s t sy st em " a n d t h ef ac t t h a t C hi na i s a l a t e s t a r t e r w i l l , i n c o mb in at io n, e na bl e t h e i r c o u n -t r y t o o u tp e rf o rm ev en J a p a n .
4 6There a r e a t l e a s t t w o "m i s t a k e s " i n f o r e i g n e xp e ri e nc e t h a t C h i n a
does n o t w a n t t o r e p e a t : e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage a n d " e x c e s s i v e " r e l i a n c e o n
o i l . E v e n w i t h b e ne f i t o f h i n ds i g h t , h ow e ve r, i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d i s t i n -
g ui sh "m i s ta k es " f r o m e s s e n t i a l c o mp on en ts o f t h e m o d e r n i z at i o n p r o c e s s .
I t i s f a r e a s i e r t o j u d g e w ha t s h ou l d b e d i f f e r e n t t h a n t o p r e s c r i b e waysto r e a l i z e p r e f e r r e d ou tcomes. I n t h e ca se o f C h in a , t h e d i f f i c u l t y i s
compounded b y a n u n de r st a nd a bl e d i s t r u s t o f " n e w " o r " r e v o l u t i o n a r y " s t r a -t eg ie s o f de ve lo pm en t. S u c h s t r a t e g i e s j u s t h a ve n o t w or ke d v e r y w e l l i n
t he PRC, a n d t h e o p e r a t i v e as su m pt io n i s t h a t C h i n a s h o u l d f o l l o w a l m o s te x ac t ly t h e same p a t h o f d ev el op me nt a s d i d o t h e r s s o t h a t i n f o r m e d j u d g -
ments a bo ut w h a t t o r e t a i n , c h a ng e , o r d i s c a r d c a n b e made f r o m d i r e c texper ience.
H i st o r i ca l , i d e o l o g ic a l , a n d p e rc e p t u a l i n c e n t i v e s t o f o l l o w ap a r t i c u l a r s t r a t e g y o f d ev el op me nt a r e r e i n f o r c e d b y t h e p e r s on a l b i a s e s
o f C h in a 's s e n i o r p o l i cy m ak e rs . M a n y o f t o d a y ' s l e a d e r s h e l d co mp ar ab lepos i t i ons du r in g wha t a r e now r ega r ded as t h e ha lcyon days o f t h e m id - 1950s .
I n many w a y s, t h e s e w e r e v e r y g o o d y e a r s f o r t h e PRC. E c o n o m i c p r o g r es swas s t e ad y a n d i m p r e s si v e , p o li c y ma k i n g w as s t i l l c o l l e g i a l a n d pr a gm a ti c ,and o f f i c i a l s h a d a c l e a r s e n se o f w h a t s ho u l d b e d on e t o o ver co me d e f i -
c i e n c i e s .
4 7
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overcome p ro bl em s i n h e r e n t i n t h e S o v i e t m o d el a n d t o t a k e a d v an ta g e o fnew o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n vi ro nm en t. O v e r t a k e n b y t h e G r e a t
Leap Fo rward i n 1958 , t hes e measur es wer e neve r r e a l l y im p lem ent ed. N e v e r -t h el e ss , t h o s e w h o h a d d e v i s e d t h e n e w s t r a t e g y - - m a n y o f w ho m h a v e n o wr et ur ne d t o p ow er -- re ma in ed c o nv i nc e d t h a t t h e i r p o l i c i e s w e r e e s s e n t i a l l y
c or re ct . F o l l o w i n g t h e G r e at Le ap , t h e y a t te mp te d, w i t h p a r t i a l s uc ce ss ,t o r e s u s c i t a t e t h e a p pr oa ch a n d p o l i c i e s d e v i s e d f o r t h e S ec on d F i v e - Ye a rP l a n .
4 8
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h ei gh te ne d d u r i n g t h e C u l t u r a l R e v o l u t i o n w he n many w e r e s u b j e c t e d t o p e r -s ona l h a r ds h i p a nd b an is he d t o t h e p o l i t i c a l w i l d e r ne s s . R e s t o r e d t o p o s i -
t i on s o f i n f l u e n c e d u r i n g t h e m i d- I 97 0 s, t h e s e " v e t e r a n c a d r e s " a t t e mp t edt o r e v i v e p o l i c i e s t h a t w o u l d a c c e l e r a t e t h e p ac e o f C h i n a ' s m o d er n i z a ti o n
and, n o t a t a l l c o i n c i d e n ta l l y, t o " p ro v e" t h a t t h e y ha d b ee n r i g h t a l l
along.
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I I I
CHINA'S CURRENT STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT:
SEVEN PRI NC IPA L THEMES
Ta ken a s a w h o l e , t h e d o m e st i c a n d f o r e i g n p o l i c i e s o f t h e P e o p l e ' s
R ep ub l i c o f C h i n a c o n s t i t u t e a c a r e f u l l y c o n c e i v e d a n d r e a s o n a b l y w e l l -
i n t e g r a t e d r e s p o n se
.
, t o t h e
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g e s
a n
do p p o r
t u n i t
i e s
c o n
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c o u n t r y . I n t e g r a t i o n a n d m u tu a l r e i n f o r c e m e n t d e r i v e , i n p a r t , f r o m p o l i -
t i c a l c o mp ro mi se s. a nd r e p e a t e d m a r g i n a l a d j us t m en t s o c c u r r i n g n a t u r a l l y
, i no th p l a n n i n g an d p o l i c y m ak i n g , b u t t h e y a l s o r e f l e c t a c o n s c i ou s a t t e m p t
t o f i t p o l i c i e s i n t o a s p e c i f i c s t r a t e g y o f d e v e l o p m e n t .
4 9
PRC l e a d e r s h av e f e l t i t n ec es s a ry t o i n s i s t t h a t , i r r a t i o n a l i t i e sand f a i l u r e s n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g , t h e r e i s a " s c i e n t i f i c " p a t h o f d ev el o pm e nt
t h a t c a n b e d i s c o v e r e d a n d f o l l o w e d .
5 0 F o l l o w i n g
t h i s
" s c i e n t i f i c "
p a t h
r e q u i r e s d e f i n i t i o n s o f a n d a dh er en ce t o a s e t o f i n t e r c o n n e c t e d p r o p o s i -
t i on s o r " l i n e s . " T h e f u n d am e n t a l d e t e r m i n a n t o f s p e c i f i c p o l i c i e s i s
supposed t o b e t h e " i d e o l o g i c a l l i n e . " S t r i p p e d t o i t s e s s e n t i a l s , t h e
c o r r e c t i d e o l o g i c a l l i n e " f o r t h e p r e s e n t s t a g e o f d ev el o pm e nt " , i s t h a t
e v e r y t h i n g d e pe nd s o n t h e l e v e l o f e c on om ic d ev e l op me n t . T h e " p o l i t i c a l
l i n e " d e r i v e d f r o m t h i s " i d e o l o g i c a l l i n e " c a l l s f o r u n i t i n g w i t h a l l wh o
can h e l p t o r e a l i z e t h e " f o u r m o d e r n i z a t i o n s . "
5 1 I n o t h e r
w o r d s ,
r a t h e r
t h a n p ur su e " c l a s s s t r u g g l e " f o r i t s o w n s a k e o r e x c l u d e a l l b u t a s m a l l
g r o up o f p u r i s t s f r o m t h e d ev e l op m e nt a l e f f o r t , t h e P a r t y ( a n d t h e S t a t e )
s h o u l d u t i l i z e t h e t a l e n t s o f a l l w h o c a n c o n t r i b u t e . M o r e s p e c i f i c a l l y ,
t h i s means t h a t c a d r e s a r e n o t t o d i s c r i m i n a t e a g a i n s t s c i e n t i s t s a n de n g i n e e r s t r a i n e d i n " b o u r g e o i s " o r " r e v i s i o n i s t " c o u n t r i e s ;
5 2 n o n - P a r t yp e c i a l i s t s a r e t o c l a y a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n f o r m u l a t i n g a n d m o n i t o r i n gd e v e l o p m e n t a l p l a n s ;
) 3 a n d
" f r i e n d l y
"
f o r e i
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m e n
t s
a r e t o b e d r a wn i n t o C h i n a ' s d r i v e f o r r a p i d m o d e r n i z a t i o n .
5 4 A d h e r e n c eo t h e s e " l i n e s " h a s p r o d u c e d a " s t r a t e g y " o f d e ve lo p m en t w i t h s e v e n
g e n e r a l t h e m e s . T h e s e t h em e s a r e s u mm a ri z ed b e l o w .
C om bi ni ng E l e m e n t s o f P l a n n e d a n d M a r k e t E c o n o m i es . E v e n t h o u g h PRC
o f f i c i a l s c o n t i n u e t o a s s e r t t h e v a l u e o f c e n t r a l p l a n n in g an d t h e ne ed f o r
o v e r a l l c o o r d i n a t i o n , t h e y n o w a d d t h a t i t i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e , e v e n i m p o s -
s i b l e
4
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Mucl iao, H u Q i ao m u, a n d o t h e r e c o no mi c t h e o r i s t s . T h e n , a s n o w , l e a d i n g
e co no mi st s a r g u e d t h a t p r e m at u re o r o v e r l y a m b i t i o u s p l a n n i n g w a s b o u nd t o
have d e l e t e r i o u s r e s u l t s . R a t h e r t h a n a t t e mp t t h e i m p o s s i b l e , t h e y a r gu ed ,
c e n t r a l p l a n n i n g or g a n s s h o u l d c o n c e n t r a t e o n a r e as o f d e c i s i v e i m p o r t a n c e
t o t h e o v e r a l l d e ve lo pm en t o f t h e c o u n t r y .
5 6 D u r i n g t h e
1 9 5 0 s ,
a d v o c a t e s
o f t h i s v i e w m a i n t a i ne d t h a t a l l a c t i v i t i e s n o t c o ve r e d b y t h e p l a n s h o u l d
8
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9
be l e f t t o m ar ke t f o r c e s , a l b e i t w i t h c l o s e m o n i t o r i n g b y c e n t r a l a u t h o r i -
t i e s . A f t e r a n e i g h t - y e a r e f f o r t t o r e s t o r e co mp re he ns iv e p l a n n i n g m od el ed
on t h e F i r s t F i v e - Ye a r P l a n , PRC o f f i c i a l s h a ve n ow r e t u r n e d t o t h e a l t e r n a -
t i v e a p p r o ac h s u gg e st e d i n 1 9 5 5- 5 6.
The s h i f t t o p o l i c i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e Se co nd F i v e - Ye a r P l a n was
n o t h e r a l d e d w i t h a n o f f i c i a l an n o un c e m e n t ; i n d e e d , i t a p p e a r s t o h a v e
o cc ur re d i n c r e m e n t a l l y a s o f f i c i a l s b eg an t o g r a p p l e w i t h s p e c i f i c p r ob l em s .
E f f o r t s t o b e " co mp re he ns iv e" h a d l e d t o p a r a l y s i s a n d / o r t o t a l l y u n r e a l i s -
t i c t a r g e t s . T o esc ape f r o m t h i s d i l em ma , p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s b eg an t o s t r e s s
the p o s i t i v e r o l e o f t h e m a r k e t .
5 7 O v e r a l l
c o o r d i n a t i o n
a n d
d e t a i l
e d
p l a n
-
n in g i n c e r t a i n a r ea s o f a c t i v i t y c o n t i n u e t o b e em ph as iz ed , b u t t h e s c o pe
has b e en g r e a t l y r e d uc e d. T h e e n e r g y s e c t o r i s amon g t h o s e s i n g l e d o u t f o r
c on t i nu e d, e v e n s t r e n g th e n ed , c o n t r o l b y c e n t r a l p l a n n e r s .
S ince t h e e n e r g y s e c t o r i s r e l a t i v e l y w e l l - d e f i n e d a n d i n v o l v e s
few u n i t s ( i f u n c o nv e n t io n a l f u e l s a n d s m a l l m i ne s an d hy d ro g en e ra t or s a r e
e xc lu de d) , i t s e em s m o re s u s c e p t i b l e t o p l a n n i n g t h a n , s a y , a g r i c u l t u r e o r
commerce. T h a t a s s es sm en t m ay b e w r o n g , b u t i t i s c l e a r l y w h a t C h i n a ' s
l e ad er s b e l i e v e . E n e r g y a l s o q u a l i f i e s f o r c o mp re he ns iv e c e n t r a l p l a n n i n gbecause i t i s c r i t i c a l t o a l l o t h e r s e c t o r s o f t h e e c o n o m y ; i t i s s i m p l y
too i m p o r t a n t t o b e l e f t t o t h e m a r k e t . E v e n t ho ug h o f f i c i a l s a p p e a r r e -
s i gn e d t o t h e n ee d f o r c o n t i n u e d , e v e n ex pa nd ed , r e l i l a n c e o n " r e g u l a t i o n
t h r o u g h t h e m a r k e t , " t h e y d o n o t r e a l l y t r u s t t h e " i n v i s i b l e h a n d , " a n d
a r e r e l u c t a n t t o e n t r u s t c r i t i c a l p a r t s o f t h e economy t o f o r c e s t h e y c a n -
n o t c o n t r o l . T h e i r r e l u c t a n c e i s t r a c e a b l e , i n p a r t , t o t h e p o l i t i c a l
j ud gme nt , w h i c h i s p r o b a b l y c o r r e c t , t h a t t h e y m us t d e mo n st r a te t h e a d v a n -
tages o f t h e c u r r e n t de ve lo pm en t a l s t r a t e g y i f t h e r e g i m e i s t o r e t a i n
p op u l ar s u p p o r t .
5 8 A s
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t os u c c
e s s ,
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c o n t r o l l e d b y t h e c e n t r a l g o ve rn me n t.
Combin ing " A d m i n i s t r a t i v e " a n d " Ec o no mi c " C o n t r o l s . T h i s t h e m e i s
r e l a t ed t o , b u t d i s t i n c t f r o m , c o m b i n i n g t h e e l em en t s o f p l an n e d a n d m a r -k e t e c o n o m i e s . R e c e n t P R C c o m m e n t a r i e s o f t e n d e p i c t " a d m i n i s t r a t i v e "
methods a s a k i n d o f b u r e a u c r a t i c t y r a n n y wh e r eb y s u p e r i o r u n i t s m e r e l y
i ss ue o r d e r s a n d i mp os e t a r g e t s .
5 9 H o w e v e r ,
o t h e r
s t a t e m e n t
s
i n s i s
t
t h a
t
c e r t a i n b u r e a u c r a t i c c o n t r o l s a r e e s s e n t i a l f o r r a p i d m o de r n i z a t i o n . T h e y
a re h e n c e f o r t h t o b e c om bi ne d w i t h " ec o no m ic " m et h od s s u c h a s f l e x i b l e p r i c -
i ng mec ha nis ms a n d r e w a r d s a n d p e n a l t i e s b a s e d o n e c o no m ic p e r fo r m a n c e .
For e xa mp le , r a t h e r t h a n s i m p l y o r d e r i n g e n t e r p r i s e s t o p r o d uc e m or e o f a
p a r t i c u l a r c om mo di ty, r e s p o n s i b l e o f f i c i a l s a r e s up po se d t o s e c u r e d e s i r e d
ends b y p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l i nd uc em en t s ( e . g . , h i g h e r p r i c e s t o r e c o v e r
c os ts o r a u t h o r i t y t o r e t a i n a h i g h e r pe rc en ta ge o f p r o f i t s e a r n ed ) . M a n i -
p u l a t i o n o f t a x r a t e s a n d t h e " m a r k e t " an d i m p o s i t i o n o f f i n e s a n d b on us es
a re b e i n g s u b s t i t u t e d f o r c r u d e r - - a n d pr es u ma b l y l e s s e f f e c t i v e - - m e a n s o f
c o n t r o 1 .6 0
B u t ,
r h e
t o r
i c
t
o
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n t
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t h e v e r t i c a l b u r e a u c r a t i c s t r u c t u r e i n h e r i t e d f r o m C h i ne se t r a d i t i o n a n d
r e i n f o r ce d b y a d o pt i on o f t h e S o v i e t m od e l . U n t i l t h e s t r u c t u r e i s c ha ng ed ,
t he r e w i l l b e a t en de nc y t o r e l y o n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e m e th od s.
P ub l i c al l y -a nn o un ce d e ne r gy p o l i c i e s i l l u s t r a t e h ow a d m i n i s t r a t i v e
and e co no mi c m ea su re s a r e t o b e u se d . T h e a l l o c a t i o n o f f u e l a n d p o we r t o
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10
v a r io u s c on su me rs i s s up po se d t o b e c o n t r o l l e d p a r t i a l l y b y p la n ne d a l l o c a -t i o n ( a d m i n i s t r a t i ve measures r e f l e c t i n g p r i o r i t i e s a nd p o l i t i c a l c o ns i de r a-t i o n s ) a n d p a r t l y o n t h e b a s i s o f ec on om ic p er fo rm an ce .6 1 E n t e r p r i s e s t h a t
produce h i g h q u a l i t y g o od s a n d p r o f i t s a r e t o b e r e wa rd ed w i t h i n c r ea s eda l l o c a t i o n s . T h i s i s d e s c r ib e d a s a n e co no mi c m ea su re b ec au se i n c r e a s e d
energy w i l l e n a b le t h e e n t e r p r i s e t o e a r n e ve n h i g he r p r o f i t s , w h i c h , i nt u rn , w i l l t r a n s l a t e i n t o h i g h e r w ag es , m o re money f o r i n v es tm en t i n n e w
p l a n t s, eq ui p me nt , o r i mp ro ve d h o u si n g f o r w o r k e r s , a n d mo re h i g h - q u a l i t y
goods f o r t h e S t a t e . A d m i n i s t r a t i v e an d e con omi c c o n s i d e r a t io n s w i l l c o n -f l i c t whenever t h e e n e r g y demand o f p r o f i t a b l e e n t e r p r i s e s e xc ee ds t h euna l l oca ted s up pl y. C u r r e n t p o l i c i e s c a l l f o r r e du c i ng t h e am ou nt o f
energy s up pl i ed t o u n p r o f i t a b l e a n d / o r b a d l y managed e n t e r p r i s e s . I n
t h eo r y, t h i s w i l l f r e e s u p p l i e s f o r b e t t e r - r un f a c i l i t i e s , b u t pr ob le msand c o n f l i c t s s ee m i n e v i t a b l e . H o w , f o r e xa mp le , s h o u l d o f f i c i a l s c ho os e
between m ee ti ng t h e e n e r g y r eq u i r e me n t s o f t h e b e s t / m o s t p r o d u c t i v e e n t e r -p r i ses and s a t i s f y i n g t h e n ee d s o f c o l l e c t i v e l y r u n s e r v i c e f a c i l i t i e semploying many p eo pl e? G i v e n r e a l i t i e s i n C h i na a nd i n h e r e n t l y c o n t r a -
d ic to ry g ui de l i ne s, t h e c h o i c e w i l l b e n e i t h e r e a s y n o r u nc on te s t ed .
Combining C e n t r a l i z a t i o n an d D e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n . C e n t r a l i z a t i o n a n dd e ce n t r a l i z a ti o n , l i k e t h e o t h e r d i ch ot om ie s i n t h i s su mma ry, a r e v a g ueterms p r o v i d i n g o n l y i m p r e c i s e g u i d a n c e t o p o l i c y m ak e r s a n d t h o s e c h a r g ed
w i t h i mp le me nt in g p o l i c y d e c i s io n s . O f f i c i a l s o f t e n u s e t h e ab ov e f o r m u l at o make t h e r a t h e r s i mp le p o i n t t h a t a c t i v i t i e s s h ou l d be n e i t h e r c o m pl e te l y
" ce nt ra l i ze d" ( i . e . , c o n t r o l l e d b y a u t h o r i t i e s i n B e i j i n g ) n o r co mp l et e l yi n t he ha nds o f " l o c a l " u n i t s ( pr o v in c e s, m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , e n t e r p r i s e s, o r
p ro du ct io n t ea ms , among o t h e r s ) , b u t t h e y r a r e l y p r o v i d e u s e f u l g u i d an c eon how t o s t r i k e a p r o p e r b a la n ce . 6 2 N e v e r t h e l e s s , o p e r a t i v e g u i d e l i n e s
are emerging.
B a s i c a l l y , t h e l a r g e r , m o re c om pl e x, a n d m or e i m p o r t a n t a n a c t i v i t yor i n s t a l l a t i o n , t h e g r e a t e r t h e " ap p r op r i at e " d eg re e o f c e n t r a l c o n t r o l .
C on ve rs el y, a c t i v i t i e s o r u n i t s t h a t h av e o n l y l o c a l i m p a ct , o r t h o se t h a tcannot b e managed e f f e c t i v e l y f r o m t h e c e n t e r , s h o u l d e n j o y a h i g h d e gr e eof autonomy. W h i l e C h i n a ' s p e t r ol e um i n d u s t r y a n d l a r g e h y d r o e l e c t r i cf a c i l i t i e s a r e c on si de re d p r o pe r ob j e c ts o f c l o s e c e n t r a l c o n t r o l a n d s u p e r -
v i s i o n , s m a l l - s c a l e h y d ro g en e ra t or s an d b i og a s u n i t s a r e t o b e managed i n a
h i g h l y d e c e n t r a l i z e d f a s h i o n .
Current p o l i c i e s c a l l f o r f u r t h e r d e c e n t r al i z a t io n o f some a c t i v i -t i e s a nd f o r c o n s ol i d a t i o n o r g r e a t e r c e n t r a l i z a t i o n i n o t h e rs . T h e d o m i-
nant t r en d i n a g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e xamp le , i s c l e a r l y to wa rd d e c e n t r a l i z a
- i o n .
6 3
C o
m m
e n
t a t
o r
s
a
l
s
o
h
a
ve
c
most i n d u s t r i a l f i e l d s ; f a c t o r y managers a r e h e n c ef o rt h t o h av e mo re l a t i -tude t o d e c i d e w h a t t o p ro du c e, h o w t o p ro du ce i t , a n d h ow t o d i s t r i b u t e
p r o f i t s .6 4 A t t h e same t i m e , h ow ev er, o f f i c i a l s h av e c a l l e d f o r t h e c o n -s o l i d a t i o n a nd a ma lg ama ti on o f i n d i v i d u a l f a c t o r i e s . " S m a l l a nd co mp le te "
e n t e r pr i s e s t h a t a t t e m p t t o d o e v e r y t h i n g t h e ms e l ve s a r e n o w d en ou nc ed a sa m a n i f e s t a ti o n o f t h e " s m a l l p ro d uc er m e n t a l i t y " ; s p e c i a l i z a t i o n a nd c l e a r
d i v i s i o n s o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y a r e s t r o n g l y en co ur ag ed .6 5
Although th e ma gn it ud e o f c e n t r a l i z a t i o n / d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n v a r i e sw i t h t h e a c t i v i t y o r s e c t o r i n q u e st i o n, t h e common o b j e c t i v e i s t o f o s t e rl oc a l i n i t i a t i v e , t o b r e ak down b u re a uc r at i c r i g i d i t y , a n d g e n e r a l l y t o
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m in imi ze o b s ta c l e s t o r a p i d ec on om ic a n d t e c h n i c a l m o d e r n i z a t i o n .
6 6 E a c he v el o r u n i t i s s upp os ed t o c o nc e nt r at e o n r e l a t i v e l y f e w m a t te r s , a n d
the d eg re e o f c e n t r a l i z a t i o n i s t o b e n o h i g h e r t h a n n ec es sa ry t o e n su r er a pi d a t ta i n me n t o f d e ve lo pm en ta l g o a l s . N e i t h e r c e n t r a l i z a t i o n n o r de c e n-t r a l i z a t i o n i s de sc r i be d a s i n h e r en t l y g oo d o r b a d ; t h e g o a l i s t o u s e
whatever f or mu la p ro du ce s t h e b e s t r e s u l t s . A s n o t e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h e" b es t" r e s u l t s , i n t h e p r es e n t c a l c u l u s , a r e t h o s e t h a t pr od uc e t h e h i g h e s tp r o f i t s , t h e g r e a t es t o u t p u t , t h e m os t r a p i d i n t r o d u c t i o n an d a b s or p t io n o f
advanced t e ch n ol o gi e s, a n d t h u s t h e m o s t " m o d e rn i z a t i o n . " E q u a l i t y a n do th er s o c i a l v a l u e s o nc e t o u t e d b y PRC o f f i c i a l s a n d t h e i r f o r e i g n b o o st e rs
no l on ge r w e i g h s o h e a v i l y i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s .
Combining t h e S t a t e a n d C o l l e c t i v e S e c t o r s . F o r e i g n o b s er v er s ha v eo ft en co nt ra st ed t he v i t a l i t y o f c o l l e c t i v e e n t e rp r is e s t o t h e i n e r t i a and
i n e f f i c i e n cy o f t h e S ta t e s e c t o r .
6 7 P R C
o f f i c i a l s
a p p a r e n t l y
h a v e
r e a c he d
a s i m i l a r j ud gm en t, r e c e n t l y a f f i r m i n g t h e i mp or ta nc e o f c o l l e c t i v e u n i t st o t h e m o de r ni z at i on pr oc es s. A d m i n i s t r a t i v e c o n t r o l s , p l a n n i n g , a n d c e n -t r a l i z a t i o n t en d t o p re do mi na te i n t h e S t a t e s e c t o r , w h i l e e c on om ic c o n -
t r o l s , m ar ke t f o r c e s , a n d d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n a r e m or e i m p o r t an t i n t h e c o l -
l ec t i ve e nt er pr is es . C u r r e n t p o l i c i e s c a l l f o r t a k i n g f u l l a dvan tage o fthe f l e x i b i l i t y a nd v i t a l i t y o f c o l l e c t i v e s . " T h e i mpor t ance a t t ac he d t othe c o l l e c t iv es i s s t r i k i n g b e c a u s e ( a ) v i r t u a l l y a l l l a r g e , c a p i t a l -i n t en si ve , a nd en e rg y - i n te n si v e e n t er p r is e s f a l l w i t h i n t h e S t a t e s e c t o r ,
and ( b ) t h e s t r u c t u r a l a n d p r oc e du r al l e g a c y o f t h e " S o v i e t m od e l " i s
most pronounced i n S t a t e e nt e r p r i s e s . T h i s i s t r u e n o t o n l y i n t e rm s o f
s iz e, r e l i a n c e o n q u o ta s , a n d a mou nt o f d i r e c t i n v es t me n t ( a s o p po se d t oloans ) , b u t a l s o i n t e r ms o f w a st e a nd e f f i c i e n c y . A l t h o u g h t h i s p o i n ts ho ul d n o t b e p us he d t o o f a r , C h i n e se co mm en ta to rs ha v e i m p l i e d t h a t p r o b -lems o f w o r ke r m o t i v a t i o n , i n e f f i c i e n t u s e o f f u e l a n d r a w m a t e r i a l s , a n d
i r r a t i o n a l expans ion o f f a c i l i t i e s h av e b e en mo st s e r i ou s i n t h e S t a t es e c t o r .
6 9
Co l l ec t i v e e n t e r p r i ses a r e now be ing g i v en an unpr eceden ted m anda tet o e x p l o re n ew p ro c ed u re s , ma n a g e ri a l f o r m s , a n d p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s .
Recent p o l i c y c ha ng es h a ve r emo ved t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o n w ag es w i t h i n c o l l e c -t iv e e nt er pr is es , e n ab l ed c o l l e c t i v e s t o r e c r u i t w o r ke r s w i t h o u t g o i n g
t h rough t he Labo r Bu r eau, assu r ed adequat e supp l i es o f f u e l and power whenthe e n t er p r i s e me et s c e r t a i n c r i t e r i a , a n d a u t h or i z e d p r i c e a d j us tm en ts ,
a l t e re d p ro d u c t i o n r u n s , a n d a c ce s s t o n e w m a r k e t s .
7
° T h e s e p o l i c i e s
a r e
designed t o f o s t e r e n t r e pr e n eu r i al a c t i v i t y b y ma ki ng i t e a s i e r f o r a b l e ,t al en te d, an d a m bi t i ou s i n d i v i d u a l s t o o r g an i z e ec onomic a c t i v i t i e s . B u t
s i nce l a r ge - sc a l e e ne rg y f a c i l i t i e s a r e S t a t e - r u n , t h e o b s t a c le s t o t h e i r
r a pi d a dva nc e ma y b e mo re f o r m i d a b l e t h a n i n t h e c a s e o f s m a l l - s c a l e c o l -l e c t i v e p r o j e c t s .
Combining New a nd E x i s t i n g F a c i l i t i e s . I n 1 9 77 7 78 , P RC p l a n s a n dstatements s t re s s ed t h e i m p o rt a n c e o f e xp a nd i ng c a p a c i t y t o s a t i s f y t h e
l ar ge a nd gr o wi n g demand f o r c om mo di ti es o f a l l t y p e s . O n e h u nd r ed a n dt wen ty m aj o r new p r o j e c t s ( i n c l u d i n g t e n new o i l f i e l d s , f i v e m a j or h ar b o rs ,and s ev er al n ew s t e e l m i l l s ) w e r e b a l ly ho oe d a s t h e c e n t e r p i e ce o f t h e
moderni zat i on s t r a t e g y, b u t n umero us s m a l l e r f a c i l i t i e s w e r e a l s o t o b e
c on st ru ct ed " i m m e d i a t e l y . "
7 1 T h e r e a f t e r ,
o f f i c i a l
s
r e a l i z
e d
t h at
be i m p o s s i b l e t o i m p l e me n t s u c h g r a n d i o s e c o n s t r u c t i o n p l a n s a n d t h a t e v en
11
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12
t r y in g c o u ld be d i s a s t r o u s .
7 2 T h e y
a l s o
c o n c l u d e d
t h a t
s i z e a
b l es h o r t
- t e r m
i nc re ase s c o u l d b e r e a l i z e d b y i mp ro vi n g t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i -t i e s , a c c o u n t i n g f o r t h e c u r r e n t e mp ha si s o n m od er n m a n ag e m en t .
73 I n d e e d ,en ova ti on and m or e e f f i c i e n t u s e o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s h av e n o w b e enaccorded h i g h e r p r i o r i t y t h a n c o n s t r u c t i o n o f ne w i n s t a l l a t i o n s .
Renovat ion has t h e advan t age o f be in g f a s t e r and cheaper t han c on -s t r u c t i o n o f new f a c i l i t i e s ; i t a l s o a t t a ck s e n e rg y -r e l at e d p ro bl em s. O f f i -c i a l s h a ve a ck no wl ed ge d t h a t f u e l a n d p ow er s u p p l i e s c a n n o t b e i n c r e a se d
s i g n i f i c a n t l y f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s an d t h a t s h o r t - t e r m g a i n s m us t b e a ch ie ve dp r i m a r i l y t hr ou gh c o n s e r v a t i o n .
7 4 R e t r o f i t t i n g
e x i s t i n g
p l a n t s
w i l
l
m a k
e
them m ore e ne r g y e f f i c i e n t , t h e r e b y e n a b l i n g C h i n a t o a c c o m pl i s h mo re w i t hthe same e n er g y i n p u t s an d d i s t r i b u t i o n n et wo rk . T h e o t h e r s i d e o f t h i sp a r t i c u l a r co i n i s t h a t , i f n ew f a c i l i t i e s we re b u i l t b ef or e s u b s t a n t i a l l y
more e n e rg y c o u l d b e s u p p l i e d , p o w e r w o u l d h a ve t o b e d r aw n f r o m t h a t n o wsupp l ie d t o e x i s t i n g p l a n t s . R o b b i n g P e t e r t o p a y P a u l w o u ld n o t o n l y
r e s u l t i n e conomic c o s t s f a r i n e xc es s o f p r o d u c t i v i t y g a i n s b u t w o ul d a l soe n t a i l h i g h p o l i t i c a l an d s o c i a l c o s t s because e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , many o f
w hi ch a l r e a d y o p e ra t e i n e f f i c i e n t l y a n d / o r a t a l o s s , w o u l d f i n d t h em se lv es
i n even more d i f f i c u l t s t r a i t s .7 5 T h i s
w o u l d
h a v e
a
p r o n o u n c
e d
i m p a
c t
o n
b oth th e l i v e s o f t h e w o rk er s i n t h e e f f e c t e d f a c t o r i e s a n d o n p er ce p ti o nsof reg i me per fo rmance.
Making Fu l l Use o f Bo t h Domest i c and Fo r e ign Resou rces . I n manyways, t h i s s i m p l y r e s t a t e s t h e g e n e r a l p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t C h i na must d o e v e r y -
t hi n g p o s s i bl e t o s pe ed u p mo de rn i za t i on , b u t i t a l s o h a s s p e c i f i c p o l i c yi m pl i ca t io n s. F o r e xa mp le , t h e i n j u n c t i o n t o m ake f u l l u se o f i nd ig en ou s
re so urce s r e q u i r e s , i . a . , t h a t s k i l l e d a n d e xp er ie nc ed pe o pl e b e a ss ig ne dt o p o s i t i o n s commensurate w i t h t h e i r t r a i n i n g . " V e t e r a n " c a dr e s a r e b e i n g
r es to re d t o p o s i t i o n s o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y ; " b o u r g eo i s " t ea c he rs , s c i e n t i s t s ,and e n g in e e rs a r e b e i n g r e as s i gn e d t o s u i t a b l e p o s i t i o n s ; a n d " f o r m e r l a n d -
l o rd s a n d c a p i t a l i s t s " a r e u r ge d t o c o n t r i b u t e w h at t h e y c an t o t h e m od er n-
i z a t i o n e f f o r t . I n s h o r t , C h i n a w i l l ma ke " f u l l u s e " o f i t s hu m anr e s o u r c e s .
7 6
Foreign r es ou rc es i n c l u d e e v e r y t h i n g f r o m l o a n s a n d c r e d i t s t ot r a in i n g o pp o r tu n i t i e s a n d a dvanc ed te c hn o l og i e s. N a r r o w d e f i n i t i o n s o f
" s e l f - r e l i an ce " a r e condemned f o r hav ing w idened t he ga p be tween China andthe i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d .
7 7
T e c h n o l o g y ,
s c i e n t i f
i c
k n o w l e
d g e ,a n
d
o t
h e
r
e lement s t h a t can con t r i b u t e t o t h e m oder n iza t i on o f Ch ina a r e now desc r ibed
as p a r t o f t h e u n i v e r s a l h e r i t a ge o f m an ki nd , a n d a s b e i n g " w i t h o u t c l a s sc o n t e n t . "
7 8
C h i n
a ,t h
e
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u m
e n t
h
o l
d
s ,
s
h
ou
e v er y th i ng , w h e t he r l o u n d a t home o r a br oa d, t h a t w i l l c o n t r i b u t e t o r a p i ddevelopment and in crea sed na ti on al independence.
Comb in ing Shor t - Te r m and Long -Te rm Cons ide r a t i ons . F r o m t h e e a r l y1970s u n t i l l a t e 1 9 7 8, PRC p o l i c y l o o k e d t o t h e l o n g t e r m an d g e n e r a l l y
s l ighted t he ex i s t i ng human and mat er i a l base . B y f ocusi ng on t he f u t ur e ,
o f f i c i a l s miss ed o p p o r t u n i t i e s a n d f r u s t r a t e d p o p u l a r e x p e ct a t io n s . B u t
by t h e e n d o f 1 9 7 8 , t h e y h a d be g un t o c o n c e n t r a t e o n m or e i m me d i at e p r o b -lems.79
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7/28/2019 Energy and Development China's Strategy for the 1980s
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I V.
ENERGY PO LI CI ES AND THE STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT
U nl i ke m o st d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , C h i n a i s r i c h l y en d o w e d w i t h
e ne rg y r e s o u r c e s .
8 4
B e c a u s e
m u c h
o f
t h
e
c o u
n t ry
r e
m a
i n s
u n e
x p l
o r e
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t h e q u a l i t y o f d a t a i s u n e v e n , t h e r e i s g r e a t u n c e r t a i n t y a b ou t t h e ma g-
n i t u de o f F R C r e s e r v e s , b u t u n q u e s t i o n a b l y t h e y a r e s u b s t a n t i a l . C o a l
r es er ve s, r e c e n t l y e s t i m a t e d a t s o m e 6 0 0 b i l l i o n m e t r i c t o n s ( b u t t ) , a r e
o f t h e s am e g e n e r a l m ag n it ud e a s t h o s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d t h e S o v i e t
U n i o n .
8 5
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b u t , o n t h e b a s i s o f c u r r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e y p r o b a b l y f a l l w i t h i n t h e
range o f 3 - 1 0 b m t .
8 6 I n1 9 7 9 ,
C h i n
a
p r o d
u c e d
1 0
6 .
1
m i l
l i o
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t r
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o f c r u d e .8 7
A f t e r 1 9 65 , t h e p e t r o l e u m i n d u s t r y g r e w d r a m a t i c a l l y f o r s e v e r a l
y ea rs , b u t t e c h n i c a l a n d ec on om ic c o n s t r a i n t s h a v e be g un t o t a k e h o l d a n d
a nn ua l p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e s ha v e become q u i t e m o de st . O i l o u t p u t i n c r e a s e d
by o n l y 1 . 9 p e r c en t i n 1 9 7 9 .
8 8 S i n c e
o i l
p r o d u c t i o n
h a s
f a i l e
d
t o
r e a
c h
p r
o -
j e c te d l e v e l s , C h i n a h a s b e e n u n a b l e t o s a t i s f y g r o w i n g d o m es t i c demand o r
t o p r ov i d e e v e n t h e m o d e s t q u a n t i t i e s p l e d g e d t o J a p a n a n d T h a i l a n d . "
L i t t l e i s k no wn a b o u t t h e m a gn i t ud e o f n a t u r a l g a s d e p o s i t s , b u t
t h e y t o o a r e s i z e a b l e . O p t i m i s t i c e s t i m a t e s p l a c e C h i n a ' s r e s e r v e s o n a
p ar w i t h t h o s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , a n d ev e n t h e m os t c o n s e r v a t i v e p r o j e c -
t i o n s i n d i c a t e v a s t r e s e r v e s .
9 0 W h a t e v e r
t h e i r
e x t e n t ,
t h e
c o u n t r
y ' s
g a
s
r e s e r v e s a r e s t i l l v i r t u a l l y u n t ap p e d , i n p a r t b ec au se t h e l a r g e s t k n ow n
f i e l d s a r e i n S i c h u an p r o v i n c e , f a r f r o m C h in a ' s m a j o r i n d u s t r i a l c e n t e r s .
C hi na 's h yd ro en er gy p o t e n t i a l o f m o r e t h a n 5 0 0 m i l l i o n k i l o w a t t s
( t h e o r e t i c a l ) i s t h e l a r g e s t i n t h e w o r l d . H o w e v e r , o n l y a b ou t 3 p e r c e n t
has y e t b e e n t a p p e d , a n d f o r m i d a b l e d i f f i c u l t i e s m u s t b e s u r mo un te d t o
e x p l o i t e v en o n e - q u a r t e r o f t h i s p o t e n t i a 1 .
9 1 N e a r l y t h r e e -
q u a r t e r s
o f
t o t a l c a p a c i t y i s l o c a t e d i n t h e s o u t hw e s t , f a r f r o m i n d u s t r i a l a nd p o p u -
l a t i o n c e n t e r s . T h e e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y h ea vy s i l t l o a d c a r r i e d b y t h e H ua n g
He ( Ye l l o w R i v e r ) a n d o t h e r m a j o r r i v e r s m a k e s i t d i f f i c u l t a n d e x p e n s i v e
t o e x p l o i t t h a t p o r t i o n l o c a t e d c l o s e s t t o ( b u t s t i l l q u i t e f a r f r o m )
i n d u s t r i a l c o ns um er s.
I n a gg re ga te t e r m s C h i n a ' s s o l a r p o t e n t i a l i s v e r y l a r g e , b u t t h e
areas t h a t r e c e i v e t h e m o s t s u n l i g h t ( e . g . , X i z a n g [ T i b e t ] a n d X i n j i a n g )
a r e r e m o t e a n d s p a r s e l y p o p u l a t e d . W i t h o u t m a j o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l b r e a k -
t h r o ug h s , t h i s p o t e n t i a l w i l l r e m a i n l a r g e l y u n t ap pe d . A d v a n c e s i n s o l a r
engineeri ng make i t poss i b l e , i n theory, t o i n s t a l l co l l e c tors i n the morep o p u l a t e d r e g i o n s o f t h e c o u n t r y , b u t t h e p r e r e q u i s i t e s a n d o p p o r t u n i t y
c o s ts o f d o i n g s o a r e e n o r mo u sl y h i g h .
14
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15
I n d i r e c t u t i l i z a t i o n o f s o l a r en er gy i n t h e f o r m o f bi om as s ( wo od ,
crop r e s i d u e , l e a v e s , e t c . ) i s a n d w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e e x t re m e ly i m p o r ta n t .
Most i s b ur ne d d i r e c t l y a s f u e l f o r c o ok in g , b u t a s m a l l p o r t i o n o f t h ebiomass i s c o n v e r t e d t o m e th an e i n h o us e ho l d o r c o mm un it y d i g e s t e r s .
9 2China p r obab ly has s i zea b le geo t he r m a l r esou r ces ( a l m os t com p le t e l y
untapped) a s w e l l a s s i g n i f i c a n t d e p o s i ts o f u r an iu m. A l t h o u g h r e se r ve s o f
these e ne rg y r es ou rc es a r e s u b s t a n t i a l , t h e p r e s en t r a t e o f e x p l o i t a t i o n
cannot b e i n cr e as e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h o u t m a j o r i n f u s i o n s o f c a p i t a l a n dtechnology.
T hr ou gh ou t m os t o f t h e 1 9 7 0 s , P RC l e a d e r s a p p a r e n t l y r e g a r d ed o i las t h e p a na ce a f o r C h i n a ' s e n e r g y a n d d e ve l o pm e nt a l w o es . A n n u a l p r o d u c -
t i o n was i n c r e a s i ng a t t h e r a t e o f 2 0 p e r c e n t , OPEC -l ed p r i c e i n c re a s esopened t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f u s i n g p et ro le um e xp o rt s t o f i n a n c e t h e d r i v e f o rm od e rn i za t io n , a n d ad va nc es i n C h i n a ' s p e t r o l e u m i n d u s t r y w e r e b e i n g m ade
w i th m in im al f o r e i g n a s si s ta n ce . C o n t i n u e d g r ow t h o f t h e o i l i n d u s t r y w as
expec ted t o cove r i nc r eased dom es t i c demand, p r oduce s i z eab le su r p luses f o r
e xp or t, a nd a l l o w C h i n a t o f o l l o w t h e same g e n e r a l p a t h o f d ev el op me nt a s
coun t r i es t ha t had a l r eady "m oder n ized . "
Unwarranted e u p h or i a a b o u t t h e g r o w t h p o t e n t i a l o f t h e p e t r o l e u mi nd us tr y ( f e d , i n p a r t , b y p o l i t i c a l c on s i de r at i o ns t h a t so me ti mes o v e r -
r ul ed t e c h n i c a l j u d g m e n t s )
9 3 a n d a
s t r o n g
d e s i r e
t o
f o l l o
w
t h
ep r o
v e n
p a
t h
l ed PRC l e a de r s t o a s e r i e s o f u n f o r tu n a t e e ne r g y - re l a t e d p o l i c i e s . S w i t c h -i ng f ro m c o a l t o o i l a s t h e p r ef e r re d i n d u s t r i a l f u e l i s n ow r eg ar de d a s a
m is ta ke . T h e " m i s t a k e " h a s b e e n b la me d o n t h e " ga ng o f f o u r , " b u t i n t h i scase th e hap less co ho r t s o f Madam Mao were prob ab l y j o i n ed b y many members
of t h e p r e s en t l e ad e r s h i p . C o n v e r s i o n f r o m c o a l t o o i l w as r e ga r de d a s ap r oper, even necessar y, s t ep on t h e p a t h o f developm ent t r av e r s ed by o t he r s .
The f o l l o w i n g e x c e r pt i l l u s t r a t e s t h e c u r r e n t v i ew :
F or some t i m e w e l a c k e d a n a d eq u at e un d e rs t an d i ng o f t h e s t r a t e g i cimportance o f o i l a s o ne o f t h e v i t a l e n er gy r es ou rc es . O u r l o p -
sided v i ew o f t h e e ne rg y s t r u c t u r e , w i t h a number o f i n d u s t r i a l l y
advanced c o u n tr i e s h a v i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f 6 0 o r 7 0 p e r c e n t i n
the use o f o i l a n d g as a n d w i t h o u r s a l i t t l e o v e r 1 2 p e rc en t ,made u s t h i n k t h a t o u r c o u n t r y ' s e n er g y s t r u c t u r e wa s r a t h e r b a c k -
ward and r e q u i r e d a n i n cr e as e d p r o p o r t i on o f o i l a nd g a s. A f t e rd i sc ov er i ng new o i l a n d g a s f i e l d s , w e i n a p p r o p r i a t e l y en co ur ag edcoal consuming e n t er p r is e s t o s w i t c h t o u s i n g o i l a s f u e l . A s a
r e su l t , t h e a mou nt o f o i l consumed b y t h e c o u n t r y ' s i n d u s t r i a l
e n te r pr i se s a nd t r a n s p o r t d e pa r tm e nt s r o s e m o r e t h a n 1 6 t i m e s i nt he 11 y e a r s b et we en 1 96 6 a n d 1 9 7 7 . . . . O v e r 65 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a lamount o f o i l c onsumed w as u s ed t o h e a t b o i l e r s , w h i l e o n l y a b o u t
35 p er ce nt w as u se d f o r i n d u s t r i a l p ur po se s. T h i s w as i r r a t i o n a land caused se r i ous w a s t e .
9 4
Slower g r ow t h t h a n e xp e ct ed i n t h e o i l i n d u s t r y a n d t h e i n c r e a s e d
s e ve r i ty o f e n e rg y b o t t l e n e c k s p ro mp te d a f u n d am e nt a l r e t h i n k i n g o f t h e
d ev el op me nta l s t r a t e g y t h a t h a d b e en p ur su ed , a l b e i t i n t e r m i t t e n t l y , s i n c ethe e a r l y ' 7 0 s . C o mm e nt a to r s b e ga n t o c o m p l ai n ab o ut f u e l a n d e l e c t r i c i t y
sh or tag es i n e a r l y 1 97 7 , b u t i t t o o k t wo m or e y e a r s o f s l o w e n er g y g r o w t h
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16
b ef or e o f f i c i a l s d e c id e d t o p l a ce en er gy a t t h e t o p o f t h e n a t i o n a l a g e n d a .
9 5t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o s p e c u l a t e a b ou t t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h PRC o f f i c i a l s b e -
came c on ce rn ed w i t h t h e " e n e r g y c r i s i s " a s a r e s u l t o f d e ve lo pm en ts a n d
a l a r m i s t p r e d i c t i o n s e l s e w h e r e ; b u t t h e r e a l s o w e r e c o m p e l l i n g d o m e s t i c
reas ons f o r f o c u s i n g o n e n e r g y p o l i c y d u r i n g 1 9 7 9 .
9 6 O f f i c i a l s b e g a n
t o
t a l k a bo ut t h e n e e d f o r a c om pr eh en s i ve e n e r g y p o l i c y a n d f o r c o n c r e t e
measures t o s o l v e b o t h s h o r t - a n d l o n g - t e r m p ro b l em s o f s u p p l y .
9 7 B e f o r eu mma r i z i ng t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t s o f t h e r e s u l t a n t p o l i c y , i t i s u s e -
f u l t o n o t e o ne a d d i t i o n a l a nd r a t h e r s u r p r i s i n g f e a t u r e o f e ne r g y p o l i c y -
m ak in g i n C h i na : u n t i l t h e S p r i n g o f 1 9 8 0, w he n t h e S t a t e E n er g y C om mi ss io n
was c r e a t e d , t h e r e w as n o o r g a n i z a t i o n a l e q u i v a l e n t o f t h e U . S. D e pa r tm en t
o f E n er g y. T h e n e w c om mi ss i o n i s h e ad ed b y Y u Q i u l i , a V i c e P r e m ie r wh o
p r e v i o u s l y s e rv e d a s h e ad o f t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g C o m m i s s i o n . "
The l o n g d e l a y i n c r e a t i n g t h e S t a t e E n er gy C om m is si on i s s t r i k i n g
because PRC o f f i c i a l s u s u a l l y a t t a c k h i g h l y - v i s i b l e p r o b l e m s b y c r e a t i n g
new, s p e c i a l i z e d o r g a n i z a t i o n s . T h u s , f o r e x a m p l e , w h e n a g r i c u l t u r a l
m ec ha n i za t i on was e l e v a t e d t o p a ra m o u nt i m p o r t a n c e , t h e y ( r e ) c r e a t e d t h e
M i n i s t r y o f A g r i c u l t u r a l M a c h i n e r y. T h e u n d e r l y i n g p h i l o s o p hy seems t o b e
t h a t a s p e c i a l i z e d a ge n c y, a s o pp os ed t o a n i n t e r a ge n c y t a s k f o r c e , w i l la s su r e t h a t t h e p r o b l em r e c e i v es p r o p e r a t t e n t i o n a n d t h a t g u i d e l i n e s a r e
p r o p e r l y i m p l e m e n t e d . C r e a t i o n o f a s p e c i a l co m m is s i o n s i g n a l s t o a l l
t h a t en e r g y h a s r i s e n t o t h e t o p o f t h e p o l i c y m a k i n g a ge nd a.
P r i o r t o e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f t h e S t a t e E n e r g y C om m is s i on , e n e r g y
d ec is io ns w er e m a de i n s e v e r a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s o p e r a t i n g a t m an y d i f f e r e n t
l e v e l s o f t h e s y s t em . T h e h i g h e s t s u c h b od y w as t h e S t a t e Ec on om ic C om mi s-
s i o n ( SE C) h ea de d b y V i c e P r e mi e r K an g S h i ' e n . A l t h o u g h n e i t h e r h e n o r t h e
SEC wa s i d e n t i f i e d a s h a v i n g s p e c i a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r e n e r g y q u e s t i o ns ,
Kang e me rg ed a s a p r i n c i p a l s po ke sm an o n s u c h m a t t e r s .
9 9 Y u p r e s u m a b l yi l l p l a y s u c h a r o l e i n t h e f u t u r e a nd t h e n ew c om mi ss io n w i l l assume t h e
t as k o f c o o r d i n a t i n g t h e e f f o r t s o f a l l a g e nc ie s a n d a c t i v i t i e s i n v o l v i n g
t h e p r o d u c t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n , a n d c on su mp t i on o f e n e r g y. T o d o s o , i t w i l lhave t o t a k e o v e r r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s a n d p o we r p r e v i o u s l y e x e r c i s e d b y m any
o t h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g t h e m i n i s t r i e s o f c o a l , p e t r o l e u m , an d po we r,
t h e S t a t e S c i e n t i f i c a n d Te c h n i c a l C o mm is s i on , t h e S t a t e Co mm is s i on o n
F or e i gn I nv e s t m en t , a n d t h e M i n i s t r y o f F o r e i g n T r a de , a s w e l l a s b y t h e
a d m i n i s t ra t i v e o rg an s o f r e g i o n a l p o w e r n e t w o r k s . R e g i o n a l , p r o v i n c i a l ,
and m y r i ad s u b - p r o v i n c i a l u n i t s h a v e p l a y e d a n d p r es um ab ly w i l l c o n t i n u e
to p l a y a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e ( e . g . , i n d e c i s i o n s t o c o n s t r u c t s m a l l h y d r o -
g en er at or s o r t o p r o v i d e f u e l a n d p ow er f o r l o c a l i n d u s t r i e s ) .
A lt ho ug h C h i na o n l y r e c e n t l y c r e a t e d t h e S t a t e E n e r g y C om mi ss io n
and s t i l l l a c k s a f o r m a l " e n e r g y p o l i c y , " i t d i d d e ve lo p a •
‘
s e r i e s o f r e l a -
t i v e l y w e l l - i n t e g r a t e d mea su r es t o e n s u re t h a t e n e r gy b o t t l en e c k s a r e o v e r -
come a n d t h a t e n e r g y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e g i v e n p r o p e r w e i g h t i n t h e d r i v e
f o r m od er n i za t i on . T h e c e n t r a l i n g r e d i e n t s o f C h i n a ' s e n e r g y p o l i c y f o r
t he 1 98 0s w e re o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n I I ; t h e p a ge s t h a t f o l l o w d e s c r i b e t h e
r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h o s e g u i d e l i n e s a n d C h i n a ' s o v e r a l l s t r a t e g y o f
deve lopm en t .
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C oa l, p e t r o l e u m, a n d e l e c t r i c p ow e r h a v e e me rg ed a s a r e a s o f p r e -eminent i m po rt a nc e. O n e i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e i r i mp o rt an ce a nd o f t h e s i g n i f i -
cance o f e n e r gy more g e n e r a l l y i s t h a t e f f o r t s t o a c q u i r e f o r e i g n t e c h n o l o g yare f oc us ed p r i m a r i l y i n t h e en e rg y s e c t o r .
1 0 0 O f f i c i a l s
s e e m i n g l y
h a v e
concluded t h a t t h e f i n a n c i a l a n d t e c h n i c a l ob s t ac l e s t o r a p i d e x p l o i t a t i o n
o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s e ne r gy r e s o u r ce s a r e s o f o r m i d a b l e t h a t d ev e lo p me n ta l o b -
j e c t i v e s c an no t b e r e a l i z e d w i t h o u t l a r g e - s c a l e f o r e i g n i n v ol v em e nt . W h a t -eve r t he cos t s o f r e l y i ng on f o r e i gn f i r m s and gover nm en ts , t h e cos t s o f s lowg ro wth i n t h e en er gy s e c t o r a r e h i g h e r , a t l e a s t a c c o r d i n g t o t h e v i e w w h ic hnow ho lds sway i n Be i j i n g .
W hi le s e e ki n g f o r e i g n a s s i s t a n c e i n l o n g - t e r m d ev el o pm en t p r o j e c t s( e. g. , c o a l m in es , o f f - s h o r e a n d o n -s h or e o i l f i e l d s , a n d h y d r o e l e c t r i cf a c i l i t i e s ) t h e PRO a l s o i s p u r s u i n g s e v e r a l p o l i c i e s de s ig n ed t o p r od uc esu bs t a nt i al r e su l t s i n t h e s h o r t t e r m .
1 0 1 T h e m o s t
i m p o r t a n t
o f
t h e s e
measures c e n t e r o n t h e d r i v e f o r e n e rg y c o n s e r v a t i o n l a un c he d i n l a t e 1 9 79 .Because i t w i l l t a k e s e v e r a l y e ar s t o b r i n g n ew f i e l d s i n t o p r o d u c t i o n , a n d
b ot h p o l i t i c a l a nd e co no mi c f a c t o r s p r e cl u d e s i g n i f i c a n t o i l i m p o r t s , i mm e-
d ia te su pp ly d i f f i c u l t i e s c a n b e s t b e a l l e v i a t e d b y ma ki ng mo re e f f i c i e n t
use o f a v a i l ab l e s u pp l i es . T h e s e v e r i t y o f t h e s h o r t f a l l i s i n d i c a t e d b yan a r t i c l e p u b l i s h e d i n May 1 9 79 .
China p os se ss es e x t r e m e l y a bu n d an t e n e r g y s o u r c e s , b u t t h e r e a r e
s er io us p ro bl em s i n t h e f i e l d o f e n e rg y s u p p l y . D u e t o s h o rt a ge so f f u e l a n d e l e c t r i c p ow er, m an y e n t e r p r i s e s a r e u n a bl e t o o p e r a t e
at f u l l c a p a c i t y . T h i s a f f e c t s t h e s pe ed o f deve lopment o f t h e
n at io na l economy. I t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o f u l l y meet t h e f u e l an dpower needs o f t h e p e op l e i n u r b a n a n d r u r a l a r e a s . T h i s a f f e c t s
normal l i f e . T h e e n e r gy p ro bl e m i s t h e r e f o r e a p r ob le m w h i c h w e
must t a k e u r g e n t s t e p s t o s o l v e .
1
°
2
Speaking a t a r a l l y h e l d i n O ct ob er 1 97 9 t o h a i l t h e s t a r t o f t h e
" f i r s t n a t i o n w i d e ' e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n m o n t h , ' " K an g S h i ' e n e xp re ss ed a l a r ma t t h e e x t e n t t o w h i ch s ca r ce s u p p l i e s o f e n er g y w er e b e i ng wa st ed . A l l o w -
i n g f o r t h e h y p e r b o l e a n d u s e o f e x t re m e e xa mp le s t h a t a r e common i n PROsta te men ts, t h e f o l l o w i n g pa ss ag es p r o v i d e u s e f u l i n s i g h t s i n t o b o t h t h emagnitude o f t h e p r o bl em a nd t h e t h i n k i n g o f s e n i o r o f f i c i a l s .
17
Why d o w e p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r e s s e n e r g y c o n s e r va t i o n a t p r e s en t ? A s
everyone k no ws , d u e t o i n t e r f e r e n c e a n d s a b ot a ge b y L i n B i a o a n dthe g an g o f f o u r , t h e management o f e n e r g y i s n o w i n a s t a t e o fc on fu si on , t h e e f f e c t i v e e ne rg y u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e i s v e r y l o w , a n d
w a st e fu l l o s s e s o f c o a l , p e tr o l e u m, a nd e l e c t r i c i t y a r e f r i g h t e n i n g .China now consumes 40 - 5 0 m i l l i o n t o n s m o re c o a l , 3 - 4 m i l l i o n t o n s
more o i l , a n d 2 0 -3 0 b i l l i o n k i l o w a t t s mo re e l e c t r i c i t y t h a n i s
nece ssary e ac h y e a r . T h i s w a s t e i s e v e n m or e s h o c k i n g wh e n c o m-pared w i t h t h e e f f e c t i v e e n e r g y u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e i n a d va nc e d
f o r e i gn c ou nt r i es . I n C h i n a t h e e f f e c t i v e u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e o fthermal e ne rg y d e r i v e d f r o m f u e l i s o n l y a b o u t 2 8 p e rc e n t , w h i l e
i n t h e d ev el op ed c o u n t r i e s i t h a s r e ac h ed ar o un d 5 0 p e r c e n t , a l m o s tdoubl e o u r s . . . . W e a r e c on su mi ng t o o m uc h p e t ro l e u m a nd n o t c o n -
serv ing o ur n a t u r a l r es ou rc es i n a r a t i o n a l w a y. V a r i o u s e n t e r -p r i ses on t he i nd us t r i a l and comm un ica tions f r o n t a r e now consuming
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18
over 3 0 m i l l i o n to ns o f o i l . O v e r t e n m i l l i o n t on s o f t h i s p e t r o -
leum a r e consumed d i r e c t l y . M o s t o f t h e d i r e c t co ns um pt io n o f o i l
may b e e l i m i n a t e d th r o ug h us i n g c o a l . I f w e c a n s av e o v e r 1 0 m i l -l i o n t o n s o f p et ro le um f o r e x p o r t , w e c a n e ar n more t ha n 2 b i l l i o nUS d o l l a r s i n f o r e i g n e xchange a y e a r . W e r e a l l y c an no t a f f o r d t h econsumption o f o i l i n t h i s m a n n e r .
1 0 3At p res ent Ch ina 's t o t a l energy consumpt ion amounts t o approx imate ly600 m i l l i o n t o n s o f s t a n d a r d c o a l [ c o a l e q u i v a l e n t ] , a l m os t e q ua l -
l i n g t h a t o f J ap an . H o w e v e r , J a pa n 's n a t i o n a l o u t p ut v a l u e i s t h r e e
t im es h i g h e r t h a n o u r c o u n t r y . . . . T h e S t a t e demands t h a t i n 1980 a l lt ra d es a n d p r o f e s s i o n s m u s t a c h i e v e a 1 0 p e r c e n t s a v i n g s i n p e t r o -
leum, 5 p e r c e n t i n c o a l an d 3 p e r c en t i n e l e c t r i c i t y . 104
To i m pl e me n t t h e c a l l f o r e n e r gy c o n s er v a t i o n , " a l l d ep ar tm en ts an dl o c a l i t i e s " we re i n s t r u c t e d t o p r ep a re c on c r et e p l a n s t o r e du c e w a s t e f u l
c o n s u m p t i o n .
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and s t r i v e t o r ed uc e c on su mp ti on p e r u n i t o f o u t p u t a t l e a s t t o t h e b e s tr a t i o ac hi ev ed i n t h e p a s t .
1 0 6 I n e f f i c i e n tf a c t o r i e
s
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i z e d ,
presumably b y h a v i n g t h e i r a l l o c a t i o n s o f e n e r g y r e d uc e d , a n d t h o s e a b l eto u se e ne rg y m os t e f f i c i e n t l y w i l l b e g i v e n a d d i t i o na l s up p l i e s i f t h ea d di t io n w i l l e n ab le t hem t o op e ra te a t h i g h er c a p a ci t y. T h i s i s i n k e ep -
ing w i t h t h e s h i f t t o " ec on om ic " m e th od s d e sc r ib e d i n S e c t i o n I I I .
Other c ons er v at i on measur es i n c l u d e t h e r e f i t t i n g o f e x i s t i n g
f a c i l i t i e s a s p a r t o f t h e emphasis o n t a pp i ng t h e f u l l p o t e n t i a l o f e x i s t i n g
en t e r p r i ses , t h e i n t r odu c t i on o f "m odern " p r i nc ip le s o f management and t ec h -n iques assoc ia t ed w i t h syst em s eng inee r ing and ope r a t i ons r ese a r ch , and t h ei n s t a l l a t i o n o f me te r s s o t h a t e n e r gy co nsu mp ti on c a n b e m o n i t o r e d .
1 0 7To c on se rv e o i l , o i l - b u r n i n g i n d u s t r i a l b o i l e r s a r e t o b e co nv er te d
t o b ur n c o a l . C u r r e n t p o l i c y s p e c i f ie s t h a t " a l l " o i l - f i r e d b o i l e r s m u st
be c o nv e rt e d a n d n o n e w o n e s m ay b e c o n s t r u c t e d e x c e p t i n e x t r a o r d i n a r yc a s e s .
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e x po r t, o t h e r f o r m s o f d o m es ti c c on su mp ti on , a n d f o r t a k i n g f u l l a dv an ta geof C hi na 's l a r g e c o a l r e s e rv e s , b u t t h e r e a r e a l s o c o s t s a n d pr ob le ms
associated w i t h t h i s p o l i c y . F o r exam p l e, i n c r e as e d u s e o f c o a l w i l l
r e qu i re a d d i t i o n a l t r a n s p o r t c a p a c i t y , o p e n i n g a n d / o r e x pa n di n g m i ne s , a n d
g re at er a t t e n t i o n t o p o l l u t i o n p ro bl em s- -n ot t o m en t io n t h e d i r e c t c o s t sof c on ve rs io n. T h u s f a r , o f f i c i a l s seem t o b e p ay in g l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n t o
t he n e g a t i v e c o n s e q u e n c e s .
1
°
9
China m us t ove rcom e eno rm ous p r ob lems on t he ene r gy f r o n t i f i t i sto " r e a l i z e t he f o u r m od er ni za ti on s. " T h e e f f o r t t o e n l i s t f o r e i g n s u p -
p o r t t o e xp an d e x i s t i n g m i ne s a n d o p e n n ew o n e s , t o s e a r c h f o r a n d e x t r a c tpet roleum, a n d t o d e s i g n a n d c o n s t r u c t n e w h y d r o e l e c t r i c i n s t a l l a t i o n s
suggests t h a t o f f i c i a l s a r e w i l l i n g t o g o f u r t h e r t o s o l v e t he s e p ro bl em st han anyone wou ld have p r ed i c t ed a f ew yea r s ago , b u t t he y may no t be w i l l -
ing t o g o f a r e no ug h. F o r e xa mp le , a l t h o u g h f o r e i g n o i l c om pa ni es h a v ebegun s ei sm ic e x p l o r a t i o n i n o f f - s h o r e a r ea s , i t i s n o t a t a l l c l e a r t h a t
they w i l l a gr ee t o e x t r a c t t h e o i l u n de r t h e t er ms t h a t C h i na h as p ro po se d.S i m i l a r l y, r e c e n t e f f o r t s t o e n t i c e f o r e i g n f i r m s t o h e l p de ve lo p o n -s h or e
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f i e l d s l o c a t e d dee p i n t h e i n t e r i o r h av e b e en l a r g e l y u n s u cc e s sf u l b ec au seo f t h e c o s t s i n v o l v e d , a n d b e c au se t h e c om pa ni es w a n t t o s e e w h a t ha pp en sw i t h r e s p e c t t o o f f - s h o r e n e g o t i a t i o n s b e f o r e co m m i t ti n g t he ms el v es f u r t h e rto C h in a 's mo de rn i za t i on e f f o r t .
1 1 0
The d ev el op me nt o f c o a l r e s e r v e s h a s l i k e w i s e p r o v e d t o b e a m o r e
p ro t ra ct ed , c om pl ex , a n d c o s t l y p r o c e s s t h a n h a d b e e n e n v i s i o n e d . N e wmines c an c e r t a i n l y b e op en ed , a n d p r o d u ct i o n e v e n t u a l l y w i l l r i s e , b u tdevelopment w i l l b e s l o w .
1 1 1 T h i s
i m p o s e s
s i g n i f i c
a n t
s h o r t
- t e r m
c o
n -
s t r a i n t s o n t h e g ro w th an d m od er ni za ti on o f C h i n a ' s economy. I f , a s o f f i -c i a l s a s s e r t , t h e y p l a n t o b a se t h e economy o n c o a l a n d s e v e r e l y t o l i m i t
the r o l e o f o i l ( a n d , p re su ma bl y, g a s , a l t h o u g h he r e c o s t a n d t e c h n i c a l
cons ider a t i ons appea r more s ig n i f i ca n t t ha n any consc ious dec is ion t o expo r tor c on se rv e e n e rg y r e s o u rc e s ) , t h e n e xp an si on o f i n d u s t r i a l c a p a c i t y m a y
occur more s l o w l y t h a n i f t h e c o u n t r y r e l i e d o n o i l . O v e r t h e l o n g r u n ,C hi na 's c o al - ba s ed s t r a t e g y i s p r o b a bl y w i s e ; i n t h e s h o r t r u n i t w i l l makei t d i f f i c u l t f o r t h e PR C t o r e a l i z e o t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t a l o b j e c t i v e s .
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SUMMARY
W hi l e v i r t u a l l y a l l o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t a l t h e m e s d e s c r i b e d i n
S e c t i o n I I I a r e r e f l e c t e d i n e n e r g y p o l i c y , t h e f i r s t f o u r a r e p a r t i c u -
l a r l y r e l e v a n t .
P l a n n ed / M a r ke t E c on o m i e s . E n e r g y i s c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d a s a c r i -
t i c a l a r e a , t h a t " m u s t " b e c o n t r o l l e d a n d s u b j e c t e d t o m o re c om pr eh en si ve
p l a nn in g t h a n o t h e r l e s s i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r s . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e f o r
t he d ev e l op me nt o f l a r g e c o a l m i ne s , t h e o i l a nd ga s i n d u s t r i e s , a n d l a r g e -
s c a l e h y d r o f a c i l i t i e s . S i n c e e n e r g y i s s c a r c e , i t m us t b e a l l o c a t e d i n a
p l a nn e d w ay. C u r r e n t p o l i c i e s s p e c i f y t h a t l i g h t i n d u s t r i e s ( a n d p o s s i b l ya g r i c u l t u r e ) a r e t o h a v e p r i o r i t y i n t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f f u e l s a n d p o we r
because t h e y r e q u i r e l e s s , p r o d u c e g oo ds f o r e x p o r t , m e e t p a r t i c u l a r d om es -
t i c demands ( e . g . , f o r c on su me r g oo ds t h a t w i l l g i v e v a l u e t o i n c e n t i v e
bonuses n ow b e i n g p a i d t o w o r k e r s ) , a n d p r od uc e h i g h r a t e s o f p r o f i t f o r
r e i n v e s t m e n t . O t h e r r e g u l a t i o n s s p e c i f y t h a t n o n e w f a c i l i t i e s c a n b e
c o n st r u c t e d a n d n o e n t e r p r i s e s c a n b e e xp an de d w i t h o u t a s s u r e d s u p p l i e s o f
f u e l a n d e l e c t r i c i t y . S u p p l i e s m u s t b e r e g u l a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o p l a n i n
o rd er t o e n s u r e t h a t " k e y " f a c i l i t i e s a r e n o t d e p r i v e d o f e n e r g y. E n e r g y
s u p p l i e r s c a nn o t a l l o c a t e f u e l o r e l e c t r i c i t y s i m p l y o n t h e b a s i s o f a b i l i t yto pay.
A dm in i s t r a t i v e / E c on om ic C o n t r o l s . S i n c e e ne rg y i s a c r i t i c a l s e c t o r
and r e q u i r e s c e n t r a l i z e d p l a n n in g , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e m e th od s m u st p l a y a n i m -p o r ta n t r o l e . E c o n o m i c c o n t r o l s w i l l p l a y a m i n o r r o l e , f o r e xa m p l e , i n
t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e n e r g y o n t h e b a s i s o f p e r fo rm an ce , b u t i n g e n e r a l
b u r e a uc r a t i c r e g u l a t i o n w i l l b e m o r e i m p o r t a n t t h a n p r i c i n g a n d s i m i l a rmechanisms.
C e n t r a l i z a t i o n / D e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n . T h i s i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e e n e r g ys ec to r b y t h e f a c t t h a t l a r g e c o n v e n t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s a r e t o b e c o n t r o l l e d
by u n i t s a t o r n e a r t h e c e n t e r ; b u t u n co n v e n t i o n a l i n s t a l l a t i o n s s u c h a s
s m al l h y dr o ge n e ra t or s a n d b i o g a s d i g e s t e r s r e m ai n un d er l o c a l j u r i s d i c t i o n .One reason f o r p l ac ing l a rge energy f ac i l i t i e s under d i re c t cent r a l co nt ro l
i s t h a t f o r e i g n i nv e st m e n t i s s up po se d t o p l a y a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e . B o t h t h e
d e l i c ac y o f d e a l i n g w i t h f o r e i g n e r s a n d t h e n ee d t o m a i n t a i n c o o r d i n a t i o n
m i l i t a t e a g a i n s t m uc h d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n , a t l e a s t i n t h e C h i ne s e c o n t e x t .
S t at e /C o l l e ct i ve . S i n c e l a r ge - sc a l e e ne rg y i n s t a l l a t i o n s f a l l
w i t h i n t h e S t a t e s e c t o r , i n v e s t m e n t w i l l b e a d m i n i s t e r e d d i r e c t l y b y t h e
r e l e va n t m i n i s t r i e s , a n d t h e k i n d o f b u r e a u c r a t i c c o n t r o l s a n d p r o c e du r e s
n o te d a bo ve w i l l a p p l y . A t t h e s am e t i m e , t h e c o l l e c t i v e s e c t o r i s a l mo s t
c o m p l e t e l y f r e e t o d e v e l o p a n d e x p l o i t s m a l l
-
s c a l e f a c i l i t i e s .
I t i s
n ot y e t c l e a r h ow m uch l a t i t u d e t h e c o l l e c t i v e s w i l l h av e i n s u c h m a t t e r s
20
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as t h e p r i c e s c h a r g e d f o r l o c a l l y p r o d u ce d e l e c t r i c i t y o r c o a l , b u t i t
seems p o s s i b l e t h a t p r i c e s c a n b e r a i s e d t o g e n e r a t e m o re r e ve n ue a nd t o
encourage c o ns e r v a t i o n . T h a t w i l l r e q u i r e i m p o r t a n t c ha ng es i n s o c i a l a s
w e l l a s e co no mi c p r a c t i c e . I n t h i s , a s i n many o t h e r a r ea s , p o l i c y ch an ge s
have o pe ne d m y r i a d p o s s i b i l i t i e s t h a t m ay b e u n p a l a t a b l e b ec au se t h e y a r e
u n f a m i l i a r . D e s p i t e a l l t h e r h e t o r i c a b o u t r e v o l u t i o n a n d s o c i a l c h a n g e ,
Ch ina i s e x t r e m e l y c o n s e r v a t i v e . C h a n g i n g t h e n a t i o n ' s e n e r g y " s y s t e m "
w i l l b e a l o n g , e x p e n s i v e , a n d p o l i t i c a l l y d i f f i c u l t p r oc e s s .
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FOOTNOTES
I . T y p i c a l d i s c u s s i o n s o f C h i n a ' s d e ve l o pm en t a l an d e n e r g y n e ed s i n c l u d e
Yu Q i u l i , " M o b i l i z e t h e W h o l e P a r t y a n d t h e N a t i o n ' s W o r k i n g C l a s s a n d
S t r i v e t o B u i l d D a q in g -Ty p e E n t e r p r i s e s T h r o u g h o u t t h e C o u n t r y , " R e n m i n
Ribao ( h e r e a f t e r RH RB) , M a y 1 8 , 1 9 7 7 , i n P e ki n g R ev ie w ( h e r e a f t e r P R ) , N o .
22 ( Ma y 2 7 ) , 1 9 7 7 , p p . 5 - 2 3 ; Y u Q i u l i , " R e p o r t o n t h e D r a f t o f t h e 1 9 79
N a t i o n a l E co no mi c P l a n , " RMRB, J u n e 2 9 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a -
t i o n Se r v i c e , D a i l y R ep o r t : P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c o f C h i na ( h e r e a f t e r F B I S ) ,
J u l y 2 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L I 3 - 2 8 ; a n d C h en X i , H ua ng Z h i j i e , and X u J u nz h an g , " T h e
E f f e c t i v e U s e o f E n e r g y i s a n I m p o r t a n t I s s u e i n D e v e l o p i n g t h e N a t i o n a l
Economy," RMRB, M a y 1 3 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , Ma y 2 9 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 7 - 1 0 . S e e a l s o
Yang Z h i r o n g , Z h u B i n , X u J u n z h an g , a nd Z ha ng Z h en g mi n , " S e v e r a l T e c h n i c a l
and E co no mi c Q u e s t i o n s o n I n c r e a s i n g E n e r g y S o u r c e s , " RH RB , F e b r u a r y 2 8 ,
1980, i n F B IS , M a r c h 2 7 , 1 9 8 0 , p p . L I 4 - 1 7 .
2. V i s i o n s o f C h i n a ' s f u t u r e a r e o u t l i n e d i n Hua Gu of en g, " U n i t e a n d S t r i v e
t o B u i l d a M o d er n , P o w e r f u l , S o c i a l i s t C o u n t r y ! " ( R e p o r t a t t h e F i r s t
Se ss io n o f t h e F i f t h N a t i o n a l P e o p l e ' s C o n gr e s s, F e b r u a r y 2 6 , 1 9 7 8 ) , RMRB,
March 7 , 1 9 7 8 , i n PR, N o . 1 0 ( M a r ch 1 0 , 1 9 7 8 ) , p p . 7 - 4 0 ; X u e Yu n y i n g , " T h e
A cc om pl is hm en t o f t h e F o u r M o d e r n i z a t i o n s i s a P r o f o u n d R e v o l u t i o n , " RMRB,
J u l y 4 , 1 9 7 8 , i n F B I S , J u l y 1 4 , 1 9 78 , p p . E 7 - 1 0 ; a n d E d i t o r i a l , " L e t t h e
Whole P a r t y a n d t h e W h ol e N a t i o n U n i t e a s i f w i t h On e H e a r t a n d Wo r k To -
g e t h e r t o A c h i e v e S o c i a l i s t R e v o l u t i o n , " H o n g Q i ( h e r e a f t e r H Q ) , N o . 1
( J a n u a r y ) , 1 97 9, p p . 2 2 - 2 6 , i n F B I S , F e b r u a r y 2 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . E 1 2 - 1 6 .
3. S e e , f o r e x a m p l e , T ho ma s F i n g a r , e d i t o r , C h i n a ' s Q u es t f o r I nd e p e n -
dence : P o l i c y E v o l u t i o n i n t h e 19 70 s ( B o u l d e r : W e s t v i e w , 1 9 8 0 ) .
4. O n e o f t h e c h a r g e s l e v e l l e d a t t h e " g a n g o f f o u r " ( a s o b r i q u e t f o r
J ia ng Qi ng a n d o t h e r s p u r g e d a f t e r t h e d e a t h o f M ao Z ed on g; c u r r e n t u s a ge
r e f e r s m o r e t o a w a y o f t h i n k i n g t h a n t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l s w ho we r e r em ov ed
f r o m o f f i c e i n O c t o b e r 1 9 7 6 ) i s t h a t o f s e e k i n g t o k e e p C h i n a w ea k a n d
back ward . S e e , f o r e x am pl e, " ' O n t h e T e n M aj o r R e l a t i o n s h i p s ' i s a P o w e r f u l
I d eo l o g i c a l Weapon t o C r i t i c i z e t h e Ga ng o f F o u r " ( s e c o n d i n a s e r i e s o fs i x te e n l e c t u r e s o n Ma o' s " O n t h e T e n M a j or R e l a t i o n s h i p s " ) , B e i j i n g R a d i o ,
F eb ru ar y 1 , 1 9 7 7 , i n F BI S, F e b r u a r y 1 0 , 1 9 7 7, p p . E 2 - 7 .
5. T h e g o a l o f t r a n s f o r m i n g Ch in a i n t o a p o w e r f u l , m od er n, s o c i a l i s t s t a t e
was f i r s t p r oc l a i m ed i n e a r l y 1 9 7 7 , b u t i t d i d n o t r e c e i v e w i d e a t t e n t i o n
u n t i l Hu a G uo fe ng u s e d t h e p h r a s e i n h i s r e p o r t a t t h e F i r s t S e s s i o n o f
t he F i f t h N a t i o n a l P e o p l e ' s C o ng r e s s ( N E C ) i n F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 8 . S e e H u a
Guofeng, s u p r a n o t e 2 ; a n d "T he B a s i c P o l i c y f o r B u i l d i n g a P o w e r f u l S o c i a l -
i s t C o un t ry i s t o M o b i l i z e A l l P o s i t i v e F a c t o r s , " B e i j i n g R a di o , J a n ua r y 3 1,
1977, i n F BI S, Fe b r u a r y 9 , 1 9 7 7 , p p . E 6 - 1 0 . T h e " f o u r m o d e r n i z a t i o n s " w e r e
announced b y Z h o u E n l a i i n h i s r e p o r t t o t h e F o u r t h N a t i o n a l P e o p l e ' s
Congress ( J a n u a r y 1 3 , 1 9 7 5 ) . H i s s p e e c h w as p r i n t e d i n RMRB, J a n u a r y 2 1 ,
1975; a n d i n P R, N o . 4 ( J a n u a r y 2 4 ) , 1 9 7 5 , p p . 2 1 - 2 4 .
23
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6. T h e p us h f o r f u l l - s c a l e m e c ha n i za t i on i s d e s c r i b e d i n Y u Q i u l i , " M o b i l -
i z e t h e W ho le P a r t y , Wa ge a D e c i s i v e B a t t l e f o r T h r e e Y e a r s , a n d S t r i v e
f o r Ba s i c R e a l i z a t i o n o f A g r i c u l t u r a l M e c h a n i z a t i o n " ( Su m m a ry R e p o r t a t
t he T h i r d N a t i o n a l C o n fe r e nc e o n A g r i c u l t u r a l M e c h a n i z a t i o n ) , RMRB, J a n u a r y
29, 1 9 7 8 , i n F BI S, Ja n u ar y 31 , 1 9 7 8 , p p . E 6 - 2 5 . F o r d i s c u s s i o n s o f " C h i n e s e
s t y l e m o d e r n i z a t i o n , " s e e F a n g Y u a n , " T a l k i n g B r i e f l y A b o u t S t u d y i n g t h e
E xp er ie nc es o f A g r i c u l t u r a l M e c h a n i z a t i o n A b r o a d , " Gu an gm in g R i ba o ( h e r e -a f t e r GMRB), A p r i l 2 9 , 1 9 7 9 , e x c e r p t e d i n F B I S , M a y 2 3 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 8 - 9 .
F or a m o re g e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n o f " C h i n e s e s t y l e " d e v e l o p me n t , s e e Su n Ye f a n g ,
" A T a l k o n t h e N e e d t o R e f o r m a n E q u ip m e n t M an ag em en t S y s t e m W h i c h ' R e p r o -
duces A n t iq u e s a n d F r e e z e s Te c h n i c a l P r o g r e s s , ' " H Q , N o . 6 ( J u n e ) , 1 9 7 9 ,
pp. 2 4 - 3 1 ; a n d Z ha ng B i z h on g , " We M u s t S t a r t f r o m C h i n a ' s S p e c i a l C h a r a c -
t e r i s t i c s i n C a r r y i n g O u t t h e M o d e r n i z a t io n P ro g ra m ," Go ng re n R i ba o , M ay 3 ,
1979, i n F B IS , M ay 2 1 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . E 5 - 7 .
7. S e e , f o r e xa mp le , Z ho u S h u l i a n a nd Wu J i n g l i a n , " A c c o r d P r i o r i t y S t a t u s
t o t h e D ev el op me nt o f L i g h t I n d u s t r y , " RMRB, A u g u s t 3 1 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S ,
Sep te mbe r 1 2 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 8 - 1 1 ; " I t i s N e ce ss a ry t o H a n d le P r o p e r l y t h e R e l a -
t i o n s h i p B e tw ee n H ea vy I n d u s t r y , o n t h e One H an d, a nd L i g h t I n d u s t r y , o n t h e
O t h e r, " B e i j i n g R a d i o , F e b r u a r y 2 , 1 9 7 7 , i n F B I S , F e b r u a r y 1 0 , 1 9 7 7 , p p .E 8- 1 2; a n d H u a G u of e ng , " R e p o r t o n t h e Wo rk o f t h e G o ve rn me nt " ( D e l i v e r e d a t
t h e S e co n d S e s s i o n o f t h e F i f t h NPC, J u n e 1 8 , 1 9 7 9 ) , RMRB, J u n e 2 6 , 1 9 7 9 , i n
B e i j i n g R ev ie w, N o . 2 7 ( J u l y 6 ) , 1 9 7 9 , p p . 5 - 3 1 . A l s o s e e , Thomas F i n g a r ,
D ev el op me nt s i n PRC S c i e n c e a n d Te c h n o l o g y P o l i c y : J a n u a r y - J u n e 1 9 7 9 , e s p e -
c i a l l y p p . 2 1 - 2 3 . ( N u m b e r 1 0 i n a s e r i e s o f s u mm a ri es p u b l i s h e d b y t h e
U n i t e d S t a t es -C h i na R e l a t i o n s P r o g r a m a t S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y . F u t u r e
r ef er en ce s w i l l c i t e t h e a u t h o r , De ve lo pm e nt s, a n d t h e p e r i o d c o v e r e d . )
8. S e e F an g Ya n, " L i g h t a n d T e x t i l e I n d u s t r i e s M u st Be D ev el op ed a t a R e l a -
t i v e l y F a s t R a t e , " RMRB, M ay 2 5 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , J u n e 2 1 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 1 8 - 2 1 .
9. E d i t o r i a l , " L i g h t I n d u s t r y M u s t De ve lo p M or e R a p i d l y , " RMRB, F e b r u a r y
20, 1 9 7 9 , i n F BI S, F e b r u a r y 2 3 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . E 8 - 1 1
10. E d i t o r i a l , " L i g h t I n d u s t r y Mu st G ro w b y a R e l a t i v e l y B i g M a r g i n , " RMRB,
December 3 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S, D e ce mb e r 1 9 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 1 0 - 1 4 .
11. H u a G uo fe ng , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 7 , p p . 1 5 - 1 6 ; a n d F i n g a r , D e v e l o p -
me nt s: J a n u a r y - J u n e 1 9 7 9, p p . 2 3 - 2 5 .
12. H ua Gu o f en g , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 7 , p p . 1 1 - 1 3 ; a n d Z h an g J i n g f u ,
" Re po rt o n t h e F i n a l S t a t e Ac co un ts o f 1 97 8 a nd t h e D r a f t S t a t e B u d ge t f o r
1 9 7 9 , " RMRB, J u n e 3 0 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , J u l y 3 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 6 - 1 9 , e s p e c i a l l y
p. L 1 8 . A l s o s e e t h e B e i j i n g X i nh ua b r oa d ca s t o f J u l y 2 6 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F BI S ,
J u l y 3 0 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 6 - 8 .
13. C o mm e nt a to r, " A p p r a i s e a n d T r e a t U r b a n C o l l e c t i v e O w n er s hi p C o r r e c t l y , "
RMRB, A u g u s t 4 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , A u g u s t 2 3 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 1 0 - 1 6 ; L i a o n i n g R a d i o ,
A ug us t 2 6 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , A u g u s t 3 0 , 1 9 7 9 , p . S 6 ; a n d Q i n g h a i R a d i o , D e ce m-
b er 1 4 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , D ec em be r 1 9 , 1 9 7 9 , p . T i .
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14. S e e t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n J o h n W. L e w i s , " C h i n a ' s M i l i t a r y D o c t r i n e s a n d
Force P o s t u r e , " i n F i n g a r , e d i t o r , s u p r a n o t e 3 , p p . 1 4 7 - 1 9 8 ; a n d J o n a -
t ha n P o l l a c k , " T h e M o d e r n i z a t i o n o f N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e , " i n R i c h a r d Baum, e d i -
t o r , C h i n a ' s F o u r M o d e r n i z a t i o n s : T h e Ne w Te c h n o l o g i c a l R e v o l u t i o n ( B o u l d e r :
W es tv i ew, 1 9 8 0 ) , p p . 2 4 1 - 2 6 1 .
15. S e e L e w i s , s u p r a n o t e 1 4 , p p . 1 8 0 - 1 8 1 , a n d s o u r c e s c i t e d t h e r e i n .
16. S e e F a ng Y i , " R e p o r t a t t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e C o n f er e n c e , " RMRB, M a r c h
2 9, 1 9 7 8 , i n F B I S, M ar c h 2 9 , 1 9 7 8 , p p . E 1 - 2 2 ; a n d Th om as F i n g a r a n d G e ne v i e v e
Dean, De v e l o p me n t s : J a n u a r y - M a r c h 1 9 7 8 .
17. S e e , f o r e x am p le , Q i a n X ue se n, " S c i e n c e a n d Te c h n o l og y M u s t C a t c h U p
W it h an d S ur p as s A dv an ce d Wo r l d L e v e l s B e f o r e t h e E n d o f T h i s C e n t u r y , " H Q,
No. 7 ( J u l y ) , 1 9 7 7 , p p . 1 4 - 1 8 , i n F BI S, J u l y 8 , 1 97 7 , p p . E 2 - 5 .
18. I h a v e d i s c u s s e d t h i s p o i n t i n " R e c e n t P o l i c y T r e n d s i n I n d u s t r i a l
Sc ience a n d Te c h n o l o g y , " i n B a u m, e d i t o r , s u p r a n o t e 1 4 , p p . 6 1 - 1 0 1 .
19. S e e F an g Y i , s u p r a n o t e 1 6 .
'75
20. F o r i n f o r m a t i o n o n s c i e n c e e x ch an ge a gr e em en ts a n d o n FRC t e c h n o l o g y
i mp or ts i n r e c e n t y e a r s , s e e i s s u e s o f C h i n a A k t u e l l ( Ha mb ur g) ; a n d C h i n a
Bus iness R ev ie w. A l s o s e e , " W e s t e r n Te c h no l o gy i n t h e P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c
o f C h i n a , " i n U . S . C o n g re s s , O f f i c e o f Te c h n o lo g y A ss es sm en t , Te c h n o l o gy
and E as t -W es t T r ad e ( Wa s h in g to n , D . C . : G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1 9 7 9 ) ,
p p. 2 4 5 - 2 8 3 .
21. T y p i c a l a ss e s s me nt s i n c l u d e K a ng S h i ' e n ' s s p e ec h a t t h e B e i j i n g r a l l y
f o r " En e r gy C o n s e r v a t i o n M o n t h , " r e p o r t e d b y B e i j i n g R a d i o , O c t o b e r 3 1 ,
1979, i n F B1 S, N ov em be r 1 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L I 2 - 1 8 ; a n d C h e n X i , H ua ng Z h i j i e ,
and X u J un z ha n g , s u p r a n o t e 1 .
22. S e e , f o r e xa mp le , i b i d . , e s p e c i a l l y p . L 9 ; a n d C om m en ta t o r, " S t r e n g t h -
en C e n t r a l i z e d Ma na geme nt O v e r E l e c t r i c P o w e r , I n c r e a s e G e n e r a t i o n a n d S a ve
E l e c t r i c i t y , " RMRB, F e b r u a r y 2 7 , 1 9 8 0 , i n F B I S , F e b r u a r y 2 8 , 1 9 8 0 , p p .L10 -12 .
23. K a n g S h i l e n , s u p r a n o t e 2 1 ; C h e n X i , H ua ng Z h i j i e , a n d X u Ju nz ha ng ,
s up ra n o t e 1 ; a n d f o r m e r M i n i s t e r o f C o a l X i a o H an ' s c omm en ts o n t h e d e v e l o p -
ment o f c o a l p r o d u c t i o n , B e i j i n g R a di o , J a n u ar y 3 , 19 7 8 , i n F BI S, J a n u a r y 5 ,
1978, p p . E 9 - 1 I .
24. S e e , f o r e x a m pl e , t h e K y od o r e p o r t o n P r i m e M i n i s t e r O h i r a
r
s m e e t i n g
w i t h P r em i er H u a G u o fe n g , D ec e mb e r 8 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , D ec e mb e r 1 0 , 1 9 7 9 ,
p . D l .
25. T h e " r e a d j u s t m e n t " s t r a t e g y an no un ce d a t t h e S e co n d S e s s i o n o f t h e
F i f t h NPC i n J une 1 97 9 c a l l e d f o r c o n c e n t r a t i on o f i n v es t me n t i n a l l a r e a s ,
n ot j u s t i n t h e en e rg y s e c t o r . S e e H ua G uo fe ng , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 7 ,
pp. 1 1 - 1 3 ; a nd M a n g J i n g f u , s u p r a n o t e 1 2 , p . L I 8 .
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26
26. S e e H ua Gu of eng , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p ra n o te 7 , p . 1 2 ; E d i t o r i a l , " E x i s t i n g
E n t e rp r i s e s A r e t h e B as e f o r M o d e r n i z a t i o n , " RMRB, M a y 1 0 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS ,
May 1 5 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 4 - 6 ; a n d " A s s i s t O l d e r E n t e r p r i s e s t o T r a n s fo r m T he m-
s e l v e s , " RMRB, M ay 1 2 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F BI S , M a y 1 5 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 7 - 8 .
27. S e e t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f e n e r g y - r e l a t e d measures i n Y u Q i u l i , " R e p o r t . . . , "
s up ra n o t e 1 , e s p e c i a l l y p p . L 1 9 - 2 0 .
28. T h i s i s i m p l i e d i n K an g S h i ' e n , s u p r a n o t e 2 1 , p . L 1 3 . A l s o s e e
K ev i n F o u n t a i n , " T h e De ve lo pm en t o f C h i n a ' s O f f s h o r e O i l , " C h i n a B us i ne s s
Review ( J a n ua r y - Fe b r ua r y 1 9 80 ) , p p . 2 3 - 3 6 . F o r a m or e m od es t p r o j e c t i o n o f
FRC e x p o r t p o t e n t i a l , s e e K i m Wo od ar d, " C h i n a ' s E n e r g y P r o s p e c t s , " P r o b le m s
o f Communism ( J a n ua r y - Fe b r ua r y 1 9 8 0 ) , p p . 6 1 - 6 7 . C h i n a e x p o r t e d a p p r o x i -
m at el y 1 2 . 7 m i l l i o n m e t r i c t o n s o f o i l i n 1 97 9.
29. S e e g e n e r a l l y V a c l a v S m i l , " C h i n a ' s E n e r g e t i c s : A S ys te m A n a l y s i s , "
i n U . S . C o n g r e s s , J o i n t E c o n o mi c Co m m i t t e e , C h i n e s e Ec on om y P o s t - Ma o ( W a s h -
i n g t on , D . C . : G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1 9 7 8 ) , p p . 3 2 3 - 36 9 .
30. S e e F a n g Y i , s u p r a n o t e 1 6 , p p . E 9 - 1 0 ; Z h u S h i d a , " E f f i c i e n c y : K e yt o C h i n a ' s E n e r g y P o l i c y , " B e i j i n g X i nh u a b r o a d c as t , J a n u a r y 1 2 , 1 9 8 0 , i n
FBIS, J a n u a r y 1 4 , 1 9 8 0 , p p . L 1 - 2 ; a n d t h e r e c e n t c a l l f o r r e s e a r c h o n
n u c l ea r p ow er i s s u e d b y J i a n g S h e n j i e a t t h e F i r s t C on g re s s o f t h e C h in e s e
N u c l e a r S o c i e t y, B e i j i n g X i n h u a b r o a d c a s t , F e b r u a r y 2 3 , 1 9 8 0 , i n F B I S ,
F e br u ar y 2 5 , 1 9 8 0 , p p . L 2 - 4 .
31. T h a t i s t h e i m p l i c a t i o n o f H u a G u of e ng , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 7 ,
p . 1 2 ; a n d B e i j i n g X i nh u a b r o a d c a s t , J an u a r y 2 0 , 1 9 80 , i n F BI S, J a n u a r y 2 2 ,
1 9 8 0 , p p . L 2 - 3 .
32. H u a G uo fe ng a n n o un c e d p l a n s t o b u i l d n u c l e a r p o w e r p l a n t s i n h i s
ad d r e ss a t t h e F i r s t S e s s i o n o f t h e F i f t h NPC ( s u p r a n o t e 2 , p . 2 7 ) a n d
o rd er s w e r e p l a c e d f o r t w o F re nc h p l a n t s i n l a t e 1 97 8. T h i s o r d e r was c a n -
c e l l e d i n J u l y 1 97 9 ( s e e A s i a n W a l l S t r e e t J o u r n a l We ek ly , J u l y 2 3 , 1 9 7 9 ,
p . 6 ) . A n e w c a l l f o r n u c l e a r p o w er w as i s s u e d i n e a r l y 1 9 8 0 ( X i n h u a ,
F eb r ua r y 2 3 , 1 9 8 0 , s u p r a n o t e 3 0 ) .
33. C h e n X i , H ua ng Z h i j i e , a n d X u J un zh an g, s u p r a n o t e 1 , p . 1 7 .
34. Y u Q i u l i , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 1 , p . 1 1 9 .
35. I b i d . , p . L 2 0 .
36. I b i d . R e d u c e d s u p p l i e s a r e i m p l i e d i n K an g S h i ' e n ' s w a r n i n g t o f i r m s
w h i c h f a i l t o u s e re s o u r c es e f f i c i e n t l y . S e e K an g S h i ' e n , s u p r a n o t e 2 1 ,p . L 1 7 .
37. I h av e d i s c u s s e d t h i s p o i n t i n " I n t r o d u c t i o n : T h e Q ue s t f o r I n de p e n -
d e n c e , " i n F i n g a r , e d i t o r , s u p r a n o t e 3 , p p . 3 - 8 ; a n d i n " C h i n a ' s Q ue s t
f o r Te c hn o l o g y : T h e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r ' A r m s C o n t r o l I I , ' " i n J o h n B a r t o n
and R y u k i c h i I m a i , e d i t o r s , A r m s C o n t r o l I I ( C a m b r i d g e : O e l g e s c h l a g e r ,
Gunn a n d H a i n , f o r t h c o m i n g ) .
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38. S e e , f o r e x a m p l e , Q i a n Xu es e n , s u p r a n o t e 1 7 ; C o m m e n t a t o r , " G e t
M o bi l i z e d an d A c c e l e r a t e t h e M o d e r n i z a t i o n o f S c i e n c e a n d Te c h n o l o g y , " HQ ,
No. 7 ( J u l y ) , 1 9 7 7 , p p . 3 - 5 , i n F BI S, J u l y 5 , 1 9 7 7 , p . E 5 ; a n d J o i n t E d i -
t o r i a l , " F o s t e r L o f t y I d e a l s , S e t H i g h G o a l s a n d M ar ch f o r t h e M o d e r n i z a -
t i o n o f S c i e n c e a n d Te c h n o l o g y, " RMRB, M a r c h 1 8 , 1 9 7 8 , i n F B I S, M a r c h 2 0 ,
1 97 8, p p . E 1 4 - 1 7 .
39. S e e , f o r e xa m p le , H u a G uo fe ng , " U n i t e a n d S t r i v e . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 2 ,
p . 1 4 .
40. F o r e x a m p l e , X i n C u an gm i n , " R e a d i n g a S p e e c h b y S t a l i n , " G M R B ,
November 1 2 , 1 9 7 8 , i n F B I S, No v em be r 2 0 , 1 9 7 8 , p p . E 2 6 - 2 8 .
41, C l a n X ue se n, s u p r a n o t e 1 7 .
42. E l e m e n t s o f t h e " M a o i s t " s t r a t e g y a r e s y m p a t h e t i c a l l y d e s c r i b e d i n
John G . G u r l e y , C h i n a ' s E con omy a n d t h e M ao is t S t r a t e g y ( Ne w Yo r k : M o n t h l y
Rev iew P r es s , 1 9 7 6 ) . A l s o s e e t h e s p e c i a l i s s u e e n t i t l e d " C h i n a ' s R oa d t o
D e ve l op m en t ," W o r l d D e v e lo p me n t ( J u l y - A u g u s t 1 9 7 5 ) .
43. H u a G u o fe ng , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 7 , p p . 8 - 9 . A l s o s e e Y u Q i u l i ,
" M o b i l i z e . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 1 , p p . 1 6 - 1 8 .
44. S e e , f o r e x am pl e, X i Z he n g y on g , " I n t r o d u c t i o n t o Q u a l i t y C o n t r o l i n
F or ei gn C o u n t r i e s , " GMRB, O c t o b e r 2 1 , 1 9 7 8 , i n F B I S , N ov e mb e r 2 , 1 9 7 8 ,
p p. E 1 2 - 1 4 .
45. S e e , f o r e x am p l e , Zh a ng Q i h u i , " H o w D o R om an ian F a c t o r i e s E f f e c t N e t
Ou t pu t Va lu e? " R M R B , J u n e 2 5 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , J u l y 7 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . H 1 - 2 .
46. O n t h e " s u p e r i o r i t y o f s o c i a l i s m , " s e e , f o r e xa mp le , C om m en ta to r, I t
i s N ec es sa ry t o U p h o l d t h e F o u r P r i n c i p l e s t o A c h i e v e t h e F o u r M o d er n i za -
t i o n s , " HQ, N o . 5 ( M a y) , 1 9 7 9 , p p . 1 1 - 1 5 , i n F B I S , M ay 2 2 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 1 - 6 .
47. O n t h e 1 9 5 0 s , s e e , f o r e x a m p le , J a n S . P r y b y l a , T h e P o l i t i c a l E c o n -
omy o f C omm un is t C h i na ( S c r a n t o n ; I n t e r n a t i o n a l Te x t b oo k s , 1 9 7 0 ) , c h a p t e r s
4 - 8; a n d Thomas F i n g a r , P o l i t i c s a n d P o l i c y M ak in g i n t h e P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c
o f C h i na , 1 95 4- 19 55 ( u n pu b l i s h e d P h . D . d i s s e r t a t i o n , S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y ,
1977) ,
48. F o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e Se co nd F i v e Ye a r P l a n , s e e Z ho u E n l a i , " R e p o r t
on t h e P r o p o s a l s f o r t h e Se co nd F i v e - Y e a r P l a n f o r D ev el op me nt o f t h e N a t i o n -
a l E c on om y" ( S e p te m b e r 1 6 , 1 9 5 6 ) , i n C om mu ni st C h i n a , 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 5 9 ( C a m b r i d ge :
H ar va rd U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s, 1 9 6 2 ) , p p . 2 1 6 - 2 4 1.
49. A l t h o u g h i t i s t r u e t h a t b o t h e x p l i c i t a n d i m p l i c i t s t r a t e g i e s d o
shape p o l i c y , " s t r a t e g y " o f t e n e mer ge s p o s t h o c a s t h e s um ma ti on o f a c t i o n s
and d e c i s i o n s t a k e n w i t h o u t r e g a r d f o r o v e r a rc h i n g g u i d e l i n e s o r f u nd a me n ta l
p r i n c i p l e s . M u c h o f w h a t a pp e a r s t o b e p u r p o s i v e a n d c o o r d i n a t e d t o t h e
o ut si de o b s e r ve r m ay, i n f a c t , r e p r e s e n t l i t t l e m o re t h a n t h e a g g r e g a t i o n
o f s e q u e n t i a l e v e n t s . C h i n a d oe s h av e a " s t r a t e g y " o f d ev e l op me nt , b u t i t
i s a s m u c h t h e p r o d u c t a s t h e d e t e r m i n a n t o f s e q u e n t i a l p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s .
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50. C o m me n t at o r, " I t i s N e c e s s a r y . . . , " s u pr a n o te 4 6.
51. A l t h o u g h d o c t r i n a l u n d er p in n i ng s h a ve b e e n r e f i n e d i n r e c e n t m on th s,c ur re nt p o l i c i e s d a t e f r o m e a r l y 1 9 7 7. S e e , f o r e xa mp le , Thomas F i n g a r
and Ge ne vi eve D e a n , D e v e l o p m e n t s : J a n u a r y -M a r c h 1 97 7, a n d r e f e r e n c e sc i t e d t h e r e i n .
52. S e e , f o r e x a mp l e , " C om p re h en s i ve l y a n d A c c u r a t e l y U nd e rs t an d t h eP a r t y ' s P o l i c y o n I n t e l l e c t u a l s , " RMRB, J a n u a r y 4 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , J a n u a r y5, 1979 , pp . E7 - 13 .
53. S e e t h e d i s c u s si o n a n d so u rc e s c i t e d i n F i n g a r a n d D ea n, D e v el o p -
ments: J u l y - S e p t e m b e r 1 97 7, p p . 1 5 - 1 7 ; D e v e l o p m e n t s : O c to b er -D e ce mb e r
1977, pp . 13-20; and Deve lopments : Ju ly -December 1978, pp . 22-24.
54. Y a o Z h ua ng , " T h e P o s i t i v e R o l e o f t h e L aw o n J o i n t V e nt ur es U si n gChinese and Fo r e ign I nves t m en t s , " RMRB, Ju l y 2 4 , 197 9 , i n FB I S , Augu s t 8 ,
1979, pp. L8-11.
55. S e e , f o r exam p le , Xue Mucl iao, "How Can We E f f ec t P lanned Managemento f t h e Na t io na l Economy, " RMRB, June 15 , 1979 , i n FB I S , June 2 0 , 1979 , pp .
L10 -16; and Yu Guangyu, "C e r t a i n Economic Po l i c i es and Theo r ies a r e Wor t h
E x p l o r i n g , " B e i j i n g X in hu a b r oa d ca s t, A p r i l 9 , 19 7 9, i n F BI S, A p r i l 1 2 , 1 9 79 ,
pp. L8 -10 .
56. X u e Muct iao, s u p r a n o t e 5 5 ; a n d " A p p r a i se a n d T r e a t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e13.
57. X u e Mucl iao, s u p r a n o t e 5 5 . R e c e n t s ta t em e nt s a r e v e r y s i m i l a r t othose made- -o f ten by th e same spokesmen-- in th e m id-1950s. D o r o t h y So l inge r
( U ni v er s i ty o f P i t t s b u rg h ) i s p r ep a r i n g a n a r t i c l e o n t h i s p o i n t a nd w as
k in d enough t o s h a r e w i t h me a p r e l i m i n a r y d r a f t w i t h t h e w o rk i ng t i t l e"Economic Reforms V i a R eform ula t ion : W h e r e Do R ig h t es t Id ea s Come From?"
58. O n t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e tw e e n p e rf or ma n ce a n d l e g i t i m a c y , s e e Thomas
F i ng a r, " C h i n a ' s Q u es t f o r Te c h n o l o g y . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 3 7 ; a n d F r e d e r i c k C .Te iw es , " T h e L e g i t i ma c y o f t h e L ea d er i n C h i na : M a o , H u a , a n d t h e S h i f t i n g
Bases o f A u t h o r i t y , " p a p e r p r ep a re d f o r t h e C a l i f o r n i a R e g i o na l Se m in a r,
B e rk e l ey, C a l i f o r n i a , M a rc h 1 5, 1 9 8 0.
59. S e e , f o r e x a mp l e , H u Oi ao mu , " A c t i n A c co rd an ce w i t h Ec on omi c L a ws ,Step Up th e Four Mo der niz at i ons , " RMRB, October 6, 1978, i n FB1S, October 11,1978, pp. E1-22; and Xue Mucl iao, supra note 55.
60. I b i d .
61. S e e , f o r e x am pl e , t h e X i n h u a b r o a d c a s t o n t h e S t a t e Ec on om ic C om mi s-s i o n ' s December 2 n d C i r c u l a r t o I n d u s t r i a l a n d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n D ep ar tm en ts ,
December 6, 1979 , i n FBIS, December 13, 1 979 , pp . L 4- 7 .
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62. E x a m p l e s i n c l u d e " I t i s N e ce s sa ry t o B r i n g i n t o F u l l P l a y t h e I n i t i a -
t i v e o f B o t h C e n t r a l a n d L o c a l A u t h o r i t i e s , " N i n t h B e i j i n g R a d i o Commen-
t a r y o n M a o' s " O n t h e Te n Ma j o r R e l a t i o n s h i p s , " F e b r u a r y 8 , 1 9 7 7 , i n F B I S ,
F eb ru ar y 2 4 , 1 9 7 7 , p p . E 1 - 5 ; a n d Hua G uo fe ng , " U n i t e a nd S t r i v e . . . , " s u p r a
n ot e 2 , p . 2 5 .
63. H u a G u of en g, " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 7 , p . 1 4 ; a n d " C e n t r a l Co mm it te e
D e ci s io n on So me Q u e s t i o n s C o n c e r n i n g t h e A c c e l e r a t i o n o f A g r i c u l t u r a l
D ev el op me nt " ( S e p t em b e r 2 8 , 1 9 7 9 ) , R HR B, O c t o b e r 6 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S, O c t o b e r
25 , 1 9 7 9 , S u p p l e me n t , p p . 1 - 1 8 .
64. E d i t o r i a l , " I t i s N e c es sa ry t o G i v e M or e A u t h o r i t y t o E n t e r p r i s e s , "
RMRB, F e b r u a r y 1 9 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , F e b r u a r y 2 6 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . E 9 - 1 2 ; a n d Q i n g
Wen a nd X u G u an g , " H o w C a n t h e D e c i s i o n - M ak i n g P o w e r o f E n t e r p r i s e s b e
Expanded?" RMRB, J u n e 4 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , J u n e 2 1 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 1 6 - 1 8 ,
65. S e e , f o r e x am pl e , L i X i a n n i a n , " S pe e c h a t t h e Op en in g S e s s i o n o f t h e
N a t i o n a l C on fe re nc e o n L e a r n i n g f r o m D a q i n g a n d D a z h a i i n F i n a n c e a n d
Trade W or k , " RMRB, J u n e 2 7 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , J u n e 2 8 , 1 9 7 8 , p p . E 1 - 1 1 ; H u
Qiaomu, s u p r a n o t e 5 9 ; a n d J i D i , " B r i n g A b o u t I n d u s t r i a l M o d e r n i z a t i o n , "RHRB, M a y 2 3 , 1 9 7 8 , i n F B I S , J u n e 1 , 1 9 7 8 , p p . E 1 3 - 1 5 .
66. T h i s t he m e w a s r e v i v e d i n l a t e 1 9 7 6 w i t h t h e f i r s t o f f i c i a l p u b l i c a -
t i o n o f Mao Ze d on g 's 1 95 6 sp ee c h e n t i t l e d " O n t h e Te n M a j o r R e l a t i o n s h i p s . "
Th at s pe ec h w a s p u b l i s h e d i n RMRB, D e ce mb er 2 6 , 1 9 7 6 , a n d i n P R , N o . 1
( Ja n ua ry 1 ) , 1 9 7 7 , p p . 1 0 - 2 5 .
67. S e e , f o r e x am pl e , " T h r e e P e o p l e ' s C h i n a , " T h e Ec o no m is t , D ec em be r 3 1 ,
1 9 7 7 , p p . 1 3 - 4 2 .
68. S e e , f o r e x am pl e , t h e X i n h u a b r o a d c a s t o n L i X i a n n i a n ' s r e m a r k s t ot he N a t i o n a l F o ru m o f D i r e c t o r s o f Commerce B u r ea u s , A u g u s t 8 , 1 9 7 9 , i n
F IT S, A u g u s t 9 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 5 - 6 .
69. C o m m e n t a t o r , " C o l l e c t i v e l y O wn ed E n t e r p r i s e s H a v e R e a l V i t a l i t y , "
RMRB, J u l y 3 0 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS , A u g u s t 7 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 4 - 7 ,
70. I b i d .
71, H u a Gu of e ng , " U n i t e a nd S t r i v e . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 2 ; a n d E d i t o r i a l , " I t
i s N e c e s s a r y t o G r e a t l y D e v e l o p Commune a n d B r i g a d e - R u n E n t e r p r i s e s , " RMRB,
A p r i l 4 , 1 97 8 , i n F B IS , A p r i l 6 , 1 9 78 , p p . E9 - 1 3 .
72. C a u t i o u s i n j u n c t i o n s a g a i n s t t r y i n g t o d o e v e r y t h i n g a t o n c e b e g a n t o
appea r i n e a r l y 1 9 78 , b u t t h e p o i n t w a s n o t e m p ha si z ed f o r a n o t h e r y e a r .
See, E d i t o r i a l , " I n C a p i t a l C o n s t r u c t i o n I t i s N e c es sa ry t o C o n c e n t r a t e
our F o r ce s an d F i g h t a B a t t l e o f A n n i h i l a t i o n , " RMRB, M ay 9 , 1 9 7 8 , i n F BI S ,
May 1 0 , 1 9 7 8 , p p . E 1 - 5 ; a n d E d i t o r i a l , -
M a k e A d j u s t m e n t s
i n t h e
C o u r s e
o f
A dv an ce , A d v a n c e i n t h e C o u r s e o f M a k i n g A d j u s t m e n t s , " RMRB, M a r c h 2 4 , 1 9 7 9 ,
i n F B IS , M a r c h 2 7 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 1 0 - 1 4 .
73. E d i t o r i a l , " E x i s t i n g E n t e r p r i s e s . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 2 6 ; a n d " I n c r e a s e
P r od u c t i o n b y P r a c t i c i n g E c o no my, " X i n h u a b r o a d c a s t , M ay 1 2 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S,
May 1 7 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 9 - 1 I .
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74. E d i t o r i a l , " F i r m l y G r a s p E n e r g y C o n s e r v a t i o n a s a M a t t e r o f G r e a t
I m p o r t a n c e , " RMRB, N o ve m be r 1 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , N o ve m be r 7 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 8 - 1 1 ;
and Yu Q i u l i , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 1 , p . L 1 9 .
75. I n h i s r e p o r t t o t h e S e co nd S e s s i o n o f t h e F i f t h NP C, H u a G uo fe ng
r e v e a l e d t h a t t w e n t y - f o u r p e r c e n t o f s t a t e i n d u s t r i a l e n t e r p r i s e s w e r e
o pe ra t i ng a t a l o s s . S e e H ua G uo fe ng , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 7 , p . 1 2 .
76. S e e , f o r e x a mp le , H uo S h i l i a n , " C o n t i n u e t o F i r m l y G ra sp a n d I mp le me nt
th e P a r t y ' s P o l i c y o n C a d r es , " H Q, N o . 5 ( M ay ) , 1 9 7 8 , p p . 1 9 - 2 3 , i n F B I S ,
May 2 2 , 1 9 7 8 , p p . E 5 - 1 2 ; " B o l d l y P r o m o t e P r o f e s s i o n a l s Who A r e K no w le d ge a bl e
i n Te c hn o lo g y t o S e r v e i n L e ad i ng G r o u ps , " RMRB, M a r c h 2 1 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B IS ,
March 2 2 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 8 - 1 2 ; a n d " C om p re h en s iv e ly a n d A c c u r a t e l y . . . , " s u p r an o t e 5 2 .
77. J i n Y i n g , " C om m e nt in g o n t h e S o c i a l A u t o c r a c y o f L i n B i a o a n d t h e
'Gang o f F o u r , ' " GMRB, F e b r u a r y 1 1 , 1 9 7 9 , e x c e r p t e d i n F B IS , F e b r u a r y 2 8 ,1 97 9, p p . E 2 0 - 2 2 .
78. S e e , f o r e x a m p l e , C om m e n t a t o r , " C o m b i n e t h e I m p o r t o f A d v a nc e dTe ch no lo gy w i t h t h e S p i r i t o f S e l f - R e l i a n c e , " RMRB, J u n e 2 9 , 1 9 79 , i n F BI S ,
J u l y 6 , 1 9 7 9 , p p . L 2 0 - 2 1 . I h a ve d is c u s s ed t h e v i e w o f FRC l e a d e r s o n q u e s -
t i o n s o f t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r i n " T r a n s f e r r i n g Te c h n o l o g y t o C h i n a : P a t -
t e r n s , P r o s p e c t s a n d P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s , " U . S . C o n g r e s s , H o us e C o mm i t t e e
on S c ie n c e a n d T e c h n o l o g y, H e a r i n g s b e f o r e t h e S u bc om mi t t ee s o n S c i e n c e ,
R es ea rc h an d Te c h n o l o g y , a n d o n I n v e s t i g a t i o n a n d O v e r s i g h t , N ov em be r 1 3 - 1 5 ,1979.
79. T h i s p o i n t i s d i s c us s e d i n F i n g a r , D e ve lo pm en ts : J a n ua ry - J un e 1 97 9.
80. S e e , " E x i s t i n g E n t e r p r i s e s . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 26 ; a n d M a n g J i n g f u , s u p r an ot e 1 2 , e s p e c i a l l y p p . L 1 5 - 1 6 .
81. S e e t h e X i nh ua b r o a d c a s t o n a n i n t e r v i e w w i t h a n o f f i c i a l o f t h e
S t a t e E c on o mi c C o m m is s i o n , N o v em b er 1 8 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , N o v em b e r 1 9 , 1 9 7 9 ,
pp. L 1 4 - 15 ; C om me n t a t o r , " R e s o l u t e l y C u r t a i l t h e C on su mp t i on o f F u e l O i l
and P r a c t i c e Ec on om y i n O i l , " R MRB, S e p te m b e r 1 2 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S , S e p te m b e r
25, 1 9 79 , p p . L 5 - 7 ; a n d t h e X in h u a r e p o r t o f a p r e s s c o n f e re n c e g i v e n b y
Yang B o , F e b r u a r y 8 , 1 9 8 0 , i n F B1 S, F e b r u a r y 1 2 , 1 9 8 0 , p . A 4 .
82. T h i s seems t o b e o ne o f t h e i m p l i c a t i o ns - - a n d m o t i v a t i o n s - - o f t h e m e e t -
i n g o n s m a l l h y dr op ow er s t a t i o n s c o nv e ne d b y t h e M i n i s t r y o f W a t e r C o n s er -
v an cy, t h e P e o p l e ' s Ba n k o f C h i n a , a n d t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l B an k o f C h i n a ( b u t
n o t t h e M i n i s t r y o f P o we r ) . S e e t h e X in hu a b r o a dc a s t o f J a n u a r y 2 0 , 1 9 8 0,
e x ce r pt e d i n F B I S, J a n u a r y 2 2 , 1 9 8 0 , p p . L 2 - 3 .
83. Y u Q i u l i , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 1 , p . L 1 8 .
84. S e e t h e i n v e n t o r y o f r e s o u r c e s a n d l i s t o f s o u r c e s i n S m i l , s u p r an o t e 2 9 .
85. S e e t h e X i n hu a br o a d c a st r e p o r t o f a n a d d re s s b y Ca o Ya ngw en M i n i s t e r
o f C o a l ) , M a rc h 3 , 1 9 8 0 , i n F BI S, Ma r c h 5 , 1 9 8 0 , p p . L 4 - 5 .
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86. S m i l , s u pr a n ot e 29 , p . 3 4 7 .
87, S e e X i n h ua E n g l i s h r e l e a s e , De ce mb er 3 1 , 1 9 7 9 , i n F B I S, D ec em be r 3 1 ,1979, p . L 1 3. I t s h ou l d b e n o te d t h a t t h i s i s a l mo st e x a c t l y t h e f i g u r e
(106 mint) p r e d i c t e d b y Y u Q i u l i i n h i s r e p o r t a t t h e S econ d S e s s i on o f t h e
F i f t h NPC ( J un e 21 , 1 9 79 ) . S e e Yu Q i u l i , s u p r a n o t e 1 , p . L 1 9 .
3
,
1
88. X i nh u a , Decem ber 31 , 1979 , su p r a no t e 87 .
89. S e e S a i l , s u p r a n o t e 2 9 , p p . 3 6 0 - 3 61 ; a nd t h e Ky od o r e p o r t o f J a nu a ry
23, 1 9 80 , i n F B IS , J a n u a r y 2 3 , 1 9 8 0 , p . D 3 . T h e a m ou nt s p l ed g ed f o r 1 97 9
were 7 .5 mat t o Japan and .7 3 mint t o Tha i lan d.
90. S a i l , s u p ra n ot e 2 9 , p . 3 4 7 .
91. S e e S m i l , s u p r a n o t e 2 9 , p . 3 4 8 ; a n d t h e X in hu a E n g l i s h r e l e a s e o fNovember 18, 1 979 , i n FBIS, November 19 , 1979 , p p . L 14- 15.
92. S m i l , s u p r a n o t e 29 , p p . 3 3 1- 3 32 .
93. I ha ve d is cu ss ed a n e xamp le i n " P u r s u i t o f P o l i t i c a l I n t e r e s t : S c i e n -
t i s t s , P o l i c y Ma ke rs , a n d P o l i c y M ak in g i n t h e FR C, " p a p e r pr e se n t ed a tthe Workshop o n t h e P u r s u i t o f P o l i t i c a l I n t e r e s t i n t h e P e op l e' s R ep u b l i c
o f Ch ina sponsored by th e Jo i n t Commi ttee on Contemporary Ch ina , Ann Ar bo r ,M ich igan , Augus t 10 - 17 , 1977 , pp . 1 9 - 22 .
94. C om m ent a t o r, " R e s o l u t e l y C u r t a i l . . . , " s u p r a n o t e 8 1 ( t r a n s l a t i o nco r r ec t ed t o co rr espond t o Chinese t e x t ) .
95. F o r a n e a r l y commentary o n e n e rg y b o t t l e n e c k s , s e e " A f t e r t h e MassesWere I nf or me d o f D i f f i c u l t i e s , " RMRB, M a rc h 1 1 , 1 9 77 . A l s o s e e t h e X i n hu a
r el ea se o f Dec emb er 1 8 , 1 9 7 7 ( r e p o r t i n g o n t h e N a t i o n a l Co n f er e n ce o n
Power ), i n FBIS, December 19 , 1977, pp . E 2-3 .
96. PR C commentators have d isc usse d U.S. ener gy problems. See, f o r example,Bao J i nh ua, "U .S. Energy Problems and Energy P o l i c y, " RMRB, Febr uary 5, 1980,
i n F B IS , F e b r u a r y 2 1 , 1 9 80 , p p . 3 2 - 4 .
97. S e e , K u Shoubo, " A P ro po sa l f o r I n i t i a t i n g S c i e n t i f i c R es ea rc h o nEnergy P o l i c y , " RMRB, M a r c h 3 , 1 9 8 0 , i n F B IS , M a r c h 1 4 , 1 9 8 0 , p p . L 2 1 - 2 3 ;
and Yu Q i u l i , " R e p o r t . . . , " s u pr a n o te 1 , p . L 2 0 .
98. S e e " En e r gy : A B o t t l en e ck i n C h i n a ' s I n d u s t r i a l D r i v e , " Bu s i ne ssWeek, M ay 19, 1980 , p . 59 ; Lo B ing , "Yu Q i u l i Dep r i ved o f Pa r t o f H i s Power , "
Cheng M i ng , N o . 3 3 ( J u l y 1 ) , 19 80 , p p . 7 - 8 , i n F B I S, J u l y 9 , 1 9 8 0 , p p . U 3 - 6 ;
and t h e X i n hu a r e l e a s e o f A u g u s t 2 6 , 1 9 8 0 , i n F B IS , A u g u s t 2 6 , 1 9 8 0 , p p .L1-9.
99. S e e , f o r e xa mp le , K an g S h i
t
e n , s u p r a
n o t e
2 1 ;
a n d
t h e
X i n h u
a
r e p or t
September 5 , 1 979, i n FBIS, September 6 , 197 9, p . L6 .
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32
100. S e e t h e X i n h ua r e p o r t o f Ya ng B o ' s p r e ss c o n fe r e n c e i n G en ev a, s u p r anote 81 .
101. I n c r e a s i n g e mp ha si s o n s h o r t - t e r m p r ob le ms a n d s h o r t - t e r m s o l u t i o n si s d i scussed i n F in ga r , Developm ent s : Jan ua r y - J une 1979.
102. C h e n X i , Hu an g Z h i j i e , a n d X u Junz hang , s u p r a n o t e 1 , p . L 7 .
103. K a n g S h i ' e n , s u p r a n o t e 2 1 , p p . L 1 2 - 1 3 .
104. B e i j i n g X inhua b r oadcas t, Janua ry 25 , 1980 , i n FBI S, Janua r y 30 , 1980 ,
p . L i .
105. F a n g S h i ee n , s u p r a n o t e 2 1 , p p . L 1 5 - 1 6 .
106. I b i d .
107. I b i d . ; a n d E d i t o r i a l , " F i r m l y G r a s p . . . , " s up ra no t e 7 4.
108. C o m me n t at o r, " R e s o l u t e l y C u r t a i l . . . , " s u p r a n o te 8 1 .
109. S o m e p e op l e a r e a t l e a s t t h i n k i n g a b o u t t h e p r o bl e m; s e e , X u S ho ub o,supra no te 97 .
110. S e e , B a r r y K r am er, " C h i n a Se ek i ng H e l p F ro m F o re i gn e rs i n E f f o r t t oE xplore f o r I n l a n d O i l , " A s i a n W a ll S t r ee t Jo ur na l We ek ly, F e b r u a r y 2 5 ,
1980, p. 2 .
111. F o r a s i m i l a r assessment , s e e S m i l , s u p r a n o t e 2 9 , p p . 3 3 9- 3 41 .
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Much h as b e e n w r i t t e n a b o u t e n e r g y i n C h i n a a n d a c om pr e he ns i veb i b l i og r ap h y w ou ld r u n t o s e v e r a l p ag e s . H o w e v e r , m a n y a r t i c l e s p r e s e n t
e s s e n t i a l l y t h e s am e i n f o r m a t i o n a n d s om e o f t h e o l d e r p i e c e s w e r e p r e -
pa red a t a t i m e w he n p o l i t i c a l r h e t o r i c an d f r ag m en t a r y s t a t i s t i c s s u b s t i -
t u t e d f o r h a r d d a t a . T h e i t e m s l i s t e d b e l o w p r o v i d e e x c e l l e n t su m m a r y
a na ly se s a s w e l l a s mo re e x te n s i v e l i s t s o f d a t a c o m p i l a t i o n s a nd s ec o n da r y
a n a l y s e s .
Va cl av S m i l . " C h i n a ' s E n e r g e t i c s : A S ys t e m A n a l y s i s , " i n J o i n t Ec on om i c
C om mi tte e, Ch i n e s e Ec onomy P os t -M ao . W a s h i n g t o n : G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g
O f f i c e , 1 9 7 8 .
C hi na 's E n er g y : A c h i e v e m e n t s , P r o b l e ms , P r o s p e c t s . N e w Yo r k :
P r a e g e r, 1 9 7 6 .
SELECTED BACKGROUND READING
Bobby A . W i l l i a m s . " T h e C h in es e P e t r o l e u m I n d u s t r y : G r o w t h a n d P r o s p e c t s , "
i n J o i n t E c o n o m i c C o m m i t t e e , C h i n a : A Reassessmen t o f t h e Ec onom y.
Wa sh in gt on : G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1 9 7 5 .
Kim Woodard . T h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l En er gy Re l a t i o n s o f C h i n a . S t a n f o r d :
S ta n fo r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , f o r t h c o m i n g .
33
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