energy challenge: overview & technology issues

Energy Challenge:Overview & Technology

IssuesNational Space Grant

Directors Meeting27 October 2008

Sam V. Shelton, Ph.D.Strategic Energy Institute

Georgia Institute of Technology

1960’s U.S. Space Initiative

Created Generation of Engineers & Scientiest

I am a Product of Sputnik:– Graduate School on National Defense Education Act

First Career Position– Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Research Engineer

Energy & The Economy

Oil Price Increase

01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008

• 22 Percent per Year Average

Coal Price Increase

01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008

• 20 Percent per Year Average

Natural Gas Price Increase

01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008

• 15 Percent per Year Average

Energy Burden on Economy US Energy Expenditures as % of GDP

– 2004: 3%– 2008: 7%

Energy Costs Created Current Economic Crisis?

“The Oil Factor”, 2004, Stephen Leeb

Energy Challenge

Energy Drivers Working Together

Economics

Environment

Fossil Fuel Production Limitations

National Security

Environment and Energy

U.S. Natural Energy Resources Use

U.S. Oil Demand & Production

US Oil Production & UtilizationEIA Annual Energy Report (1949-2006)

Consumption

Production

Imports

Production

U.S. Oil Production with ANWRUS Oil Production

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Year

Th

ou

san

d B

arr

els

per

Day ANWR

Alaska

Lower 48

ProjectedActual

World Oil Production

World Oil Production PeakingPredicted: 2006 - 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Pro

duct

ion,

Gbo

e/a

Conventional Heavy Polar Deep Water

World Oil Peaking is Driving Oil Prices UP

2006 Predictions:$100 per Barrel Oil Predicted

by end of 2010

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil

National Security&

Economic

Issues

Supplier of Last Resort

Saudi Arabia 20%Canada 14%Iran 10%Iraq 9%Kuwait 8%UAE 7%Venezuela 6%Russia 5%Libya 3%Nigeria 3%Kazakhstan 2%U.S. 2%

U.S. 25%China 8%Japan 7%Germany 3%Russia 3%India 3%Canada 3%South Korea 3%Brazil 3%France 2%Mexico 2%Italy 2%

Have OilHave Oil Use OilUse Oil

The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.

The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.

CIA Factbook 2007 EIA 2007

Foreign Energy Tax

National Balance of Payments– $1 Billion per DAY Going Out of US for Oil

U.S. Energy Policy Could be Stated As:“Leave No Saudi Prince or Iranian Mula Behind.”

Oil Demand

Primarily Transportation

Transportation is the Oil Issue

Very Large Transportation Fleet Huge Investment in Fleet

Evolves Very Slowly– 17 Years to Replace 50% of Vehicles

Vehicle Efficiency Improvements Change Vehicle Culture

– Smaller Cars– Hybrid Vehicles– Turbo Diesels Engines– Plug In Hybrids– All Electric Cars

ALL HAVE IMPACT IN ~2025– IF WE START SELLING THEM NOW

Is Aviation Fuel Inefficient?

Rutan Long EZ

Space Ship I

Space Ship I Landing

Natural Gas Supplies

N. American Gas DemandExceeding

N. American Gas Production

U.S. Natural Gas Production

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

U.S

. Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion,

Tr

illio

n B

tu's

Importing Natural Gas

LNG Imports– Liquified

– -260F

Same as Oil Imports

Paid with Foreign Held Debt

National Security Costly to Transport

Electric Power Plants

Fuel Type Use for Electric Power

Electricity Uses Very Little Oil

Oil & Electric Power New Nuclear/Wind/Solar Electric

Power Will Save No Significant Oil

Oil Use is 2% of Current Electric Fuel

Electric Cars can be Charged from Current Non-Oil Night Base Load Plants

Conventional Power Plant Issues Coal Fired Power Plants

– Coal Mining Environmental Impact– Air Quality

Nuclear Power Plants– Economics: High Construction Cost– High Level Radioactive Waste

Hydro– Environmental Impact - Permitting Issues

Natural Gas Power Plants– Environmentally Relatively Clean– High Cost of Natural Gas-Economics– National Security: Importing LNG

Comparison of Levelized Costs

10

6

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

¢/kWh

nuclear (referencecase)

coal CCGT

Levelized Costs of Electricity (Traditional Plant Model)

MeetingNew Electric Power

Demand

New Power Plant Technologies New Generation Nuclear Plants

– Permits being Prepared for 2017 Start Up– Capital Cost is Uncertain– Waste Fuel Disposal is Issue: Yucca Mountain???

Coal Gasification with Combined Cycle– Higher Efficiency use of Coal (40% vs 35%)– Coal Strip Mining Environmental Impact– A Winning Coal Technology with CO2 Limits

(cont) New Power Plant Technologies

Wind Energy– Cost can be Competitive with Conventional:

• 6 to 8 cents/kWhr

– Permitting is Issue Solar Photovoltaics (PV)

– High Cost:• Silicon Technology:30 to 50 cents/kWhr

– Better Economics predicted since 1970’s– Good for Off Grid

Economics of RenewableElectrical Power Technologies

“Change” PV Technology

Thin Film PV Technology– First Solar

• www.spectrum.ieee.org

– Nanosolar• www.nanosolar.com

– Reduced PV Power into Grid from $0.40/kW to $0.25/kW?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Cen

ts p

er k

W-H

ou

r

Coal Nuke Gas CCGT Wind Solar

Relative 2006 Electric Power Generation Costs Estimates

(cont) Conclusions Oil is Near Term Problem:

– Supply vs. Demand

Electric Power Technology will Not Impact Oil

Economics is Prime Technology Driving Force

PV has Potential for Change Technology

Potential Solutions

Technology is Core

Solutions are Diverse

Thousands of Technology Improvements

Public Policy to Avoid Disruptions– Economic, Social, International

Long Term Electric Power

Space Power

Recent Thin Film PV Technolgy

Moves the Ball Forward

Georgia TechStrategic Energy Institute

Interdisciplinary Energy Innovation

PolicySciences

Engineering

SEI

Strategic Energy Planning

Identify High Impact Technologies

Identify Economical Technologies

Engage Industry Partnerships

Develop Near Term High Impact Technology

Build Demonstration Projects with Industry

SEI Major Projects

Southern Pine Cellulosic Ethanol– C2BioFuels

Off Shore Wind Energy– Southern Company

Broad Based Alternative Fuels– Chevron: $12 million Agreement

Ethanol from Pulp Wood

Only One Near Term High Impact Option for Oil

Develop Ethanol from Cellulosic Biomass

Ethanol as a Transportation Fuel

Uses existing gasoline distribution infrastructure

All Vehicles can Burn 10% Ethanol

Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV)– Can Use 85% Ethanol (E85)

– 6 million FFV’s currently on the road

– 1 million FFV’s produced annually

Conventional Energy Inputs for Ethanol Production

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Corn Wood

% o

f E

than

ol E

nerg

y O

utp

ut

Petroleum

Other

Natural Gas

Coal

Georgia TechStrategic Energy Institute

Off-Shore Wind Energy

Pro

pose

d W

ind

Tu

rbin

e S

ite

Loca

tio

n Courtesy of: Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Geographic Information Systems

Denmark Horns Rev: 80 Turbines, 160 MWatts

Optimistic: Convergence of Drivers

Fossil Fuel Production Limitations Economics Environment National Security

Solutions Technology Need National Public Policy

Thank You

Questions?

Conclusions

World Conventional Oil Production will Peak Energy Prices will Increase to Destroy Demand There is No Silver Bullet Solution Develop Near Term Transition Energy Technologies Economics is Primary Driver for Energy

Technologies Economic Development Opportunities for Georgia

– Ethanol from Southern Pine Pulpwood Long Term Energy Technology Development