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© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy Day (IEA/IDB/WBCSD)
COP 20, Lima, Peru, Dec 5 2014
Philippe Benoit
Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment (Climate) Division
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2014
0
10
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2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear 7%
Renewables 30%
End-use fuel switching 9%
CCS 14%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
Gt CO2
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2%
Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions
© OECD/IEA 2014
0
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2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
Gt CO2
EE provides largest contribution to abatement
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2%
Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions
© OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy …
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20 000
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2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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5 P
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6DS
GDP (right axis)
© OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy …
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2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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© OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy …
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
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8 000
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2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
USD
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ion
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5 P
PP
Mto
e TPES
6DS
GDP (right axis)
© OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy …
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
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20 000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
USD
Bill
ion
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5 P
PP
Mto
e TPES
6DS
GDP (right axis)
BAU-Low EE
© OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy …
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
8 000
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14 000
16 000
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2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
USD
Bill
ion
s 2
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5 P
PP
Mto
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TPES
6DS
4DS
2DS
GDP (right axis)
BAU-Low EE
High Productivity
© OECD/IEA 2014
10 20 30 40 50 60
Trillion dollars (2012)
Long-term investment landscape for a 2 °C world
Cumulative Investment in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2014-2035
Efficiency spending is $6 trillion higher in the 450 scenario Total annualized average investment requirement in EE of
about $630 billion (for $14 trillion)
450 Scenario
New Policies Scenario
Fossil fuels Power T&D Low-carbon
~14 trillion
~8
trillion
Energy Efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2014
Global Energy Efficiency Market
Current market estimated to be between
USD 310-360 billion
© OECD/IEA 2014
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry Transport Power generation
Buildings
Realised energy efficiency potential
Unrealised energy efficiency potential
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario
Potential for EE scale-up is there …
© OECD/IEA 2014
Policies
Pricing
Strengthen the narrative
Helping EE to achieve its CC potential
© OECD/IEA 2014
Cross-sectoral 1. Energy efficiency data collection and indicators 2. Strategies and action plans 3. Competitive energy markets with appropriate
regulation 4. Private investment in energy efficiency 5. Monitoring, enforcement and evaluation of policies
and measures
Buildings 6. Mandatory building energy codes and minimum
energy performance requirements; 7. Aiming for net zero energy consumption in buildings 8. Improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings 9. Building energy labels or certificates 10. Improved energy performance of building
components and systems
Appliances and Equipment 11. Mandatory MEPS and labels for appliances and
equipment 12. Test standards and measurement protocols for
appliances and equipment 13. Market transformation policies for appliances and
equipment
Lighting 14. Phase-out of inefficient lighting products and
systems 15. Energy efficient lighting systems
Transport 16. Mandatory vehicle fuel efficiency standards 17. Measures to improve vehicle fuel efficiency 18. Fuel-efficient non-engine components 19. Improved vehicle operational efficiency through
Eco-driving and other measures 20. Transport system efficiency
Industry 21. Energy Management in industry 22. High efficiency industrial equipment and systems 23. Energy efficiency services for small and medium
enterprises 24. Complementary policies to support industrial
energy efficiency
Utilities and end-use 25. Energy Utilities and end-use energy efficiency
25 EE Policy Recommendations
© OECD/IEA 2014
Pricing:
towards a ‘fair and balanced’ pricing regime
• Removing fossil fuel subsidies
• Factoring-in negative externalities of fossil fuels
Climate
Air pollution
Etc.
Helping EE to achieve its CC potential
© OECD/IEA 2014
Policies
Pricing
Strengthen the narrative
Helping EE to achieve its CC potential
© OECD/IEA 2014
IEA fuel market reports
© OECD/IEA 2014
Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
© OECD/IEA 2014
Important for developing countries
Multiple benefits are of particular importance for emerging economies and developing countries
Energy access Helping countries to expand access, effectively enabling them to supply power to more people through the existing energy infrastructure.
Economic development
Supporting economic growth through various aggregate benefits, for example by improving industrial productivity and reducing fuel import bills.
Poverty alleviation
Increasing the affordability of energy services for poorer families by reducing the per-unit cost of lighting, heating, refrigeration and other services.
Combatting local pollution
Reducing the need for energy generation – and lower associated emissions – through energy efficiency measures on both supply side and demand side.
Climate change resilience
Reducing the need for energy infrastructure, energy efficiency reduces the amount of energy assets exposed to extreme weather events.
© OECD/IEA 2014
GHG abatement
Energy
CC
Finding and exploiting cross-disciplinary synergies outside climate
© OECD/IEA 2014
Finding and exploiting cross-disciplinary synergies outside climate
GHG abatement
Energy
CC
Air quality
Health
© OECD/IEA 2014
Finding and exploiting cross-disciplinary synergies outside climate
GHG abatement
Energy
CC
Road congestion
Health
Transport
Climate as the ‘co-benefit’
© OECD/IEA 2014
Finding and exploiting cross-disciplinary synergies outside climate
GHG abatement
Energy
CC
Fuel Imports
Transport
Health
Energy Dependence Climate as the
‘co-benefit’
© OECD/IEA 2014
EE and CC: Insights
Energy efficiency is a major component of the global energy system and …
EE is a big part of the CC mitigation solution, but …
Getting EE to meet our CC ambition will require more concerted effort to promote EE
© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014
Thank You
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