energy revolution and sustainable society · 2017-11-28 · energy revolution and sustainable...
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TOKYO, MARCH 8, 2017, RENEWABLE ENERGY INSTITUTE - RE VISION 2017
Energy Revolution and Sustainable Solutions Rajendra Iyer, ABB Group Vice President
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 2
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The energy revolution
Elements of the evolving grid
Grid interconnection Digitalization Power quality & demand mgmt.
Residential roof top solar plus Micro- and Nano-grids New business models Energy storage
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 3
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The energy revolution
Take away message
* units <50 MW connected to MV/LV grids, source: governmental plants, ABB analysis
Changing power generation balance
Renewables expected to be dominant source for electrical power generation
Power balance tipping towards renewables, driven by policy & disruptive technology cost reduction
Main growth in variable renewables such as wind and solar
Two growth paths
– Mainly centralized renewables
– Mainly distributed renewables
Power generation Centralized vs decentralized
RE
S c
on
trib
uti
on
to
an
nu
al
tota
l d
em
an
d [
%]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distributed RES* contribution to annual total demand [%]
C-RES D-RES
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2015
2020
2030
2030
2020
2015
DK, Ministry of Energy
DE, Energiewende
IN, 5-years dev’t plan
CN, Government plan
CH, Energy Strategy 2050
100
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 4
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1 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance & pv.energytrend.com 2 Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Batteries & photovoltaic
– Dramatic cost reduction – to be continued
– Scalability of technologies
– Consumer investment across market segments accelerating developments
The energy revolution
Disruptive developments driving key changes in future grids
Price history of silicon PV cells1 Yearly demand for EV batt. power2 Cost for lithium-ion battery packs2
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
gigawatt hours
Estimated
Actual
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
$1,200 per kilowatt hour 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
$76.00
$0.30
$/
wa
tt
197
7
198
1
198
5
199
0
199
5
20
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20
05
20
10
20
15
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 5
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The energy revolution
Volume development of Variable renewable brings it to more affordable cost levels for consumers
Microgrids and integration of renewables
Source : Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Grid – an evident enabler for the future
The energy revolution
March 8, 2017
1 Germany may operate at very high V-RES levels due to strong connections to the ENTSO-E grid. 2 Ireland limits instantaneous percentage of non-synchronous resources (SNSP) by 60% in 2017. The plan is to reach SNSP=75% in 2020. Slide 6
Technical challenges countries encounter
0%5%10%
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2012 2040 Now
Germany1
% of occurrence in
Germany
2016
2040
Ireland2
Conventional operation
System inertia & grid voltage
Short circuit capacity & V-RES utilization
Grid capacity & reserve
Investments in grid and flexible technologies required to address challenges
2030 2020
Technology options1 at different system level
Energy Revolution Need for more flexible power system
March 8, 2017
1. Not exhaustive list 2. Converter controlled 3. Behind the meter 4. Wholesale energy market, ancillary services, capacity markets, p2p retail markets, etc.
Slide 7
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Low RES utilization
Low short circuit capacity
Low system inertia
Higher voltage variation
Limited power reserves
Limited grid capacity
Market based options4
Impact:
High
Moderate
Low
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 8
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The energy revolution
Grid interconnection
Renewable integration across regions
– Fluctuations during the day
– Seasonal variations
Optimal use of reserve and peaking capacities
Diversification of electricity supply
Reduction of wholesale electricity price volatility
Strengthening grid operation in case of fault conditions
Increase capacity utilization factor of conventional generation
Opportunities Challenges
Political factors
Economic framework
Technological capabilities
Coordinated operation (global harmonization of standards, grid codes and operational practices)
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 9
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The energy revolution Grid interconnection: Ultra High Voltage
World’s most powerful UHVDC link
Chiangji-Guquan, China
1100kV DC
12000MW
>3000km
UHVAC transmission
Bina Substation, India
1200kV Circuit breaker
& transformer
World’s first multi-terminal UHVDC link
North-East Agra, India
800kV DC
6000MW
>1700km
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 10
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The energy revolution
Resilient and cost-effective technology
Grid code compliant integration of wind & solar
Stabilizing weak grids
Microgrids acting as one controllable generator or load
Access to power in remote locations
Microgrids and integration of renewables
Kodiak Island,
Alaska, USA
– Wind (9MW)
– Diesel
– Flywheel (2 x 1MW)
AusNet,
Victoria, Australia
– Weak grid support
– Diesel (1MW)
– Battery (1MWh)
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 11
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The energy revolution
Energy storage – a key element across the power value chain
Load leveling
ESS
ESS ESS
ESS
ESS
ESS
Peak shaving
Frequency regulation
Solar PV time shift
Stabilization
Integration of renewables
Load leveling
Industry/Large commercial
Residential/Small commercial
Microgrid
ESS
HV sub- transm.
HV sub- transm.
MV
LV
LV
MV HV transmission
Conventional central generation
Variable renewable generation
HV transm.
HV sub- transm.
ESS
Spinning reserve
Load center
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 12
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The energy revolution
Power quality & demand management
Distributed renewables
Smart control
Power electronic technologies (e.g. FACTS)
Transformer based technologies (e.g. Line Voltage Regulators)
Demand response
management
Frequency regulation through short term balancing of supply and demand
Smart home and building management
Electric vehicle (charging) infrastructure
Bulk renewables
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 13
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1 NCIT – Non Conventional Instrument Transformers
The energy revolution
From conventional to a digital substations
CAPEX reduction
– Reduced footprint (AIS)
– Up to 80% less copper cabling
Reduced engineering & installation time
Improved safety
OPEX reduction
– Asset health & predictive maintenance
– Up to 50% reduction in outages
Safety
Fast & easy reconfiguration
Fit for future grid requirements
275 kV digital substation with digital sensors & 61850 digital communication bus, in operation since 2011
Queensland, Australia
Enabling flexibility for new and existing substations
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 14
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– Different perspectives of the SAME asset are observed / monitored / controlled by different roles in organizations
– Without consolidation, multiple perspectives seldom yield a “complete” picture of the asset
– Each perspective has its own strength, but together the perspectives can create a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts
Multiple products, multiple industries, diverse and overlapping functionality
Connected Asset Lifecycle Management
Enterprise Asset Management
Asset Performance Management
Mobile Workforce Management
Business Information Model (BIM)
Executive Dashboard
Network Mgr SCADA
EAM WFM
Operations
APM
[Asset Health Center]
[Ellipse or Asset Suite] [Service Suite]
Information
Technology (IT)
Operations
Technology (OT)
The energy revolution
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 15
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Interconnectors help countries realize the full benefits of the internal energy market
The energy revolution
Benchmark highlighted by the
European Commission in January
2014:
“All Member States to have a level
of electricity interconnection
equivalent to at least 10% of their
installed production capacity” Import capacity
as a % of net
generation
capacity in 2011
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 16
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European scenario 2000
The energy revolution
HVDC 2000 – a solution for
Energy trading
Security of supply
Integration of renewables
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 17
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European scenario 2015
The energy revolution
HVDC 2015 – a solution for
Energy trading
Security of supply
Integration of renewables
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 18
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European future plans
The energy revolution
HVDC a future solution for
Energy trading
Security of supply
Integration of renewables
Balancing of intermittent power
Closing nuclear and fossil
Optimizing total grid efficiency
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 19
— System issues in South Australia
February 09, 2017 - 3:45 PM High temperatures across the eastern states is increasing electricity consumption levels in South Australia and New South Wales, placing additional strain on the national power system. This has resulted in reduced generation reserves within these two states. AEMO is in discussion with a number of generators within New South Wales and the New South Wales government to mitigate the need for local load shedding. Load shedding can sometimes be required when there is an imbalance between electricity demand and electricity supply. When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need to reduce demand very quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the electricity network becoming unstable. Under the National Electricity Rules, AEMO has authority to implement emergency rotational load shedding during power system emergencies to ensure the system remains secure and to avoid prolonged power outages. Load shedding arrangements vary from state to state, but the objective of rotational load shedding is to minimise the impact on any one group of customers. Sometimes rotational load shedding is not an option – for example, if the supply-demand balance changes rapidly, then load shedding can happen almost instantly. The safety of the community is the energy industry’s number one priority during power system emergencies, and AEMO is working closely with industry to restore and maintain reliable, secure electricity supply to affected regions in the National Electricity Market as quickly as possible.
South Australian Grid
March 8, 2017 Slide 20
Weakly interconnected system
Lack of capacity reserves to meet exceptional demand (e.g. heat wave periods).
system will be upgraded to accommodate more renewables
Key South Australia power system properties
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 21
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Proposal for regional interconnections
System issues in South Australia
“Additional interconnection between National Electricity Market (NEM) regions can result in greater competition between generation sources, thereby delivering lower overall energy prices for customers, in addition to facilitating an increase in renewable generation and addressing security of supply concerns associated with energy market transition.”
- South Australian Energy Transformation, a report by ElectraNet
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 22
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Source : Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation organization
The world is already connect by cables for internet…..why not for energy
The energy revolution
December 7, 2016
©ABB
Slide 23
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