energy stakeholder meeting theme: nuclear energy as an option for sustainable supply of energy

ENERGY STAKEHOLDER MEETING THEME: NUCLEAR ENERGY AS AN OPTION FOR SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY OF ENERGY

Prospects of nuclear energy – a global and continental perspective

Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013

• China accounts for more than 40 % of the global net increase in nuclear capacity 17 (32)

• Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 % per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 % of world energy use through 2040

•Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States

•Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries

(2 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 )

World electricity demand is likely to grow by over 80% by 2040, and nuclear energy capacity will need to double

Nuclear energy must be a significant part of the mix if India is to grow electricity supply by 625% to meet development goals

Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 % by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040

Africa - increased will and political commitment by the African countries to advance the application of nuclear technology for power generation

” Africa's most populous country, Nigeria, is seen as making real progress towards the introduction of nuclear power, having started up its first research reactor at Ahmadu Bello University in 2004

Other African nations with rapidly growing power demand and a declared interest in nuclear energy include Kenya, Senegal, Ghana, Sudan and Yemen

Forum of Nuclear Regulatory Bodies in Africa (FNRBA),

Developments in the Local Environment

March 2011 decision by Cabinet that 9600 GW will be nuclear

IAEA Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) completed early 2013

NNEECC restructured and now headed by the president + 6 ministers

Finalisation of nuclear procurement roadmap by November 2013

CONTENT - Key considerations

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•Is it safe•Is it affordable•Is there a measure and process for accountable and transparent procurement •Can the public be convinced – will they buy into the option

Is nuclear an option – viability!

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There are many issues surrounding nuclear power not withstanding safety and waste management Which should we be worried about? Q. Are we likely to run out of uranium? Q  Why should we consider nuclear energy when sun and wind are effectively free and will be with us for ever?

Q Why not cheap base load – coal and/or gas  

Is nuclear an option – viability!

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 Q What are the (environmental) risks and implications of going nuclear?

Q What are the financial implications of going nuclear?

Q Can South Africa do it?

Is there enough Uranium

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  No – however, with breeder reactors and thorium resources we have enough fuel for maybe thousands of years

What are the implications environmental and other of going

nuclear?

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Very favorable relative to other technologies.  Effectively no CO2, vastly better than coal, visually acceptable, no land contamination, base load viability for an economy even more poised for industrialization and manufacturing

  Why should we tangle with nuclear energy when sun and wind are effectively free and

will be with us for ever?

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Actually they are far from free but SA does have excellent sun.  Sun during the day and nuclear running day and night could be good combination

  What are the financial implications of going nuclear?

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 Very difficult question.  Give capital and operating costs as best we know them.  Only way really to find is to issue enquiry documents

Delays - Decision Making – Regulatory – The hidden costs / cost overruns

Financial Aspect

Well known high cost of capital to put the nuclear infrastructure!

The power plant itself, the regulatory environment and the skills required!!

The associated industrial development, employment creation plus transformation !!!

Management of large infrastructure projects !!!!!

GREAT OPPORTUNITY – apex field, cost of electricity,STEM cliff hanger, jobs/skills – CATALYST

Can South Africa do it? !

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 We’ve done it before. Koeberg has be a great success and is now producing electricity more cheaply than any other Eskom power station

THE PUBLIC

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 •Engagement•Public Participation•Models from across the world

THE PROCESS

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 •NNEECC•Parliament •DPE•DOE Not an exclusive list

Paramount – Industry big and small – no space for a dialogue between the real time players who are in the field in the roll out to share inform highlight -in the interest of the push for PPP we would welcome a conversation in this regards

Closing

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We have reached a suspended moment in our energy history – what will be the legacy , ours as NIASA, your legacy as this committee, our FUTURE inclusive growth and development

Caught between an intractable present /an irrecoverable past

Between things that are no longer and things that are not yet?

Closing

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Nuclear is not the answer

BUT

It has to be part of the answer

THE END

Thank You!!!

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Judi Nwokedi NIASA Board Member

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Project Plan Assumption - Estimated timeline for the 9,600MWe nuclear new build programme