energy systems analysis

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis

Determinants 3: Environment

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

A Taxonomy of Environmental Problems (after WB, 1992):xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxPoverty Industrialization Affluence

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

A Word of Caution• Cross-sectional data (comparing

different countries) only first step• Longitudinal analyses needed too (track

changes across countries and in time).• Income is surrogate indicator and not a

causality driver!• Elasticity of impacts and peaks:

-- pollutant dependent-- exposure dependent-- time dependent (“leap-frogging”)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

2 Environmental Kuznets Curves for Particulates: Urban Concentration vs. Total Human Exposure

(Source: K. Smith, 2000, WEA Chapter 3)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Problems of Energy

1: Poverty, ignorance, and lack of capacity

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

London - December 1952Urban Air Quality and Mortality

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Particulate Concentrations and Human Exposure in 8 Environments

Exposure = People x Time x Concentration

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Urban Air Quality – Standards vs. Reality ca. 1990 (WHO&UNEP, 1993)

Urban Air Quality

in Megacities

(WHO, 1993)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Problems of Energy

2: Industrialization, growing awareness, regionalization

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Sulfur Cycle Local, Regional, and Global Impacts

Wetdeposition

Drydeposition

Acidification

Air quality(health,corrosion)

Stratosphere (cooling)

Based on Crutzen&Graedel, 1986.

* hydrogen sulfide (land)dimethyl sulfide (ocean)

*

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

IPCC WGI AR4 TS (2007)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

SO2 Emissions Scenarios SRES and IS92a (Schlesinger et al. 2000 TFSC 65:167-193)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Effect of negativeSO2 forcing (right)and positive GHGforcing (left) onglobal mean tempchange

Smith et al., 2000TFSC 65:195-204

SRES lower SO2emissions (compared to IS92)lead to amplified Warming!

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Excess Sulfur Deposition Above Critical Loads (high growth coal scenario A2 ca. 2020)

Sulfur Deposition

(gS/m2)

Europe, ca. 1990

China, A2 Projection for 2020

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Percent losses

Not assessed

No damage

< 10%10 - 33%33 - 75%

> 75%

A2 Acidification Impacts on Food Production Loss

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

World – Sulfur Emissions by Region (cumulative, MtS)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

European Sulfur Emission Reductions (MtS)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

S/C Emissions Ratio vs. Affluence (Sulfur Peak)Korea: 1975 at 3,000 $/cap UK, GER: 1965 at 10,000 $/cap

Japan

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Problems of Energy

3: Affluence, deep uncertainty, globalization

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa (IPCC, 1995)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Energy-related Carbon Emissions by Region

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

IPCC Projected Temperature Change in Absence of Climate Policies

Uncertainty:50 % climate (sensitivity) modeling25% emissions (POP+GDP influence)25% emissions (TECH influence)

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Energy – Environment Strategiesxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Improvements in Efficiency and Decarbonization: Diverse Paths

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Policy Trade-offs: No Single Energy Hammer for All

Environmental Nails

• Incremental (fast) radical (slow)• Partial (fast, cheap) 100% solutions• Add-ons (reinstating dominance of old)

New systems (new tech + infra +…)• Single-purpose (carbon)

multi-purpose (efficiency)• Local (100 flowers, fragmented)

Global (uniform, complete coverage)• Solving one problem, BUT creating a new one