enrollment projections hazel h. reinhardt january 19, 2011
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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Hazel H. ReinhardtJanuary 19, 2011
AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT
EVALUATION OF PROJECTIONS
Total Enrollment 2010-11 Actual▪ 4,399 (10/01/10)
Projections▪ 4,399 High K/High Migration▪ 4,394 Middle K/High Migration▪ 4,352 Middle K/Low Migration▪ 4,352 Low K/Low Migration
EVALUATION OF PROJECTIONS
Kindergarten Actual▪ 363 (10/01/10)
Projections▪ 365 Low and Middle Assumptions▪ 370 High Assumption
PREDICTORS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE
Community characteristics Distribution of students by grade Resident births Education choice decisions Housing: type and increase by type
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Austin Public Schools’ enrollment growth in
the past four years is atypical in Minnesota White, not Hispanic, enrollment declined
while minority, especially Hispanic, enrollment increased Minority students are now 31% of the student
body District residents are less likely to chose
other education options than students statewide
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Austin Public Schools’ capture rate of district residents rose over the past ten years, which is also atypical in Minnesota
Resident births in Mower County and Austin City increased dramatically, which is a good indicator of future enrollment growth
The current grade distribution by grade predicts enrollment growth
Austin Public Schools are projected to grow
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Enrollment is projected to increase from 4,373 to 4,739 (2014-15) to 4,967 (2019-20) based on the lowest projection
Minority students will continue to be a large share of the student body and may account for nearly 40% of all students in five years
The net in migration of the past year may be an anomaly When used in projections, the
projections are high
K-12 ENROLLMENT
K-12 enrollment is 161 students higher than in 2000-01 Prior to 2005-06 enrollment declined 2005-06 was first year of all day
kindergarten Past four years, enrollment up 160
students or 3.8%
K-12 ENROLLMENT
Year K-12 Enrollment2000-01 4,2122001-02 4,0992002-03 4,0812003-04 4,0212004-05 4,0692005-06 4,2132006-07 4,2122007-08 4,2232008-09 4,2572009-10 4,3732010-11 4,399
RACE/ETHNICITYCHANGE
Change2000-01 2009-10 Number Percent
Total 4,212 4,373 161 3.8%White 3,666 2,998 -668 -18.2%Minority 546 1,375 829 151.8%Percent Minority
13.0% 31.4%
ENROLLMENT CHANGE
Natural increase Fall kindergarten class is larger than the
previous year’s Grade 12 Natural increase often results in
enrollment growth Net migration tends to be negative
Past year a big exception
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE
Fall to Fall TotalNatural
Increase/Decrease
Net Migration
2000 to 2001 -113 -33 -802001 to 2002 -18 11 -292002 to 2003 -60 -17 -422003 to 2004 48 40 82004 to 2005 144 92* 522005 to 2006 -1 30 -312006 to 2007 11 80 -692007 to 2008 34 85 -512008 to 2009 116 46 70
NONPUBLIC CHOICE
Nonpublic school enrollment decreased Nonpublic schools enroll:
8.1% of the district’s school age population 8.7% in Minnesota
Home schools enroll: 1.4% of the district’s school age population 1.7% in Minnesota
PUBLIC OPTIONS
Open enrollment in (128) 2.0% of Austin Public School enrollment
(2008-09) Open enrollment out (153)
3.0% of Austin’s school age population (2008-09)
4.9% of Minnesota students opt for open enrollment
PUBLIC OPTIONS
Charter schools (0) None of Austin’s school age population 3.6% of Minnesota students
DISTRICT SCHOOL AGE POPULATION
District’s school age population increasing 2003-04 to 2008-09▪ 192 or 4.2%
Austin Public Schools’ capture rate 87.2% in 2008-09 85.8% in 2003-04
ENROLLMENT BY GRADE
Predictor of enrollment change Kindergarten up in the past four years▪ 2005-06 with all day kindergarten, kindergarten
was 384 students. Since then, ranged from 356 to 376
Grade 12 largest in 2009-10 (361 students) followed by 2008-09 (325 students)
Elementary grades (K through 5) larger than current high school grades▪ Predicts enrollment increase
ENROLLMENT BY GRADEGrade 2000-
012001-
022002-
032003-
042004-
052005-
062006-
072007-
082008-
092009-
10
K 272 268 302 260 299 384 356 376 367 3711 292 298 285 313 294 321 371 350 372 3662 307 295 285 263 289 287 306 351 349 3893 313 310 294 287 278 287 293 307 346 3574 335 316 308 292 285 274 292 289 296 3535 311 350 324 311 302 290 280 286 297 3166 308 303 353 344 341 323 301 293 300 3107 347 309 314 356 347 335 320 302 289 3018 337 341 317 309 350 348 343 322 303 2869 375 366 366 338 328 389 396 366 311 310
10 366 340 352 368 322 322 347 366 348 31911 348 312 304 321 342 327 311 333 354 33412 301 291 277 259 292 326 296 282 325 361
Total 4,212
4,099
4,081
4,021
4,069
4,213
4,212
4,223
4,257
4,373
FUTURE
Trends where confidence is high Aging Decrease in the school age population
per household Shift in size of key adult age groups,
which will affect demand for housing Low fertility Enrollment cycles
FUTURE
Unknowns Duration of the collapse of the housing
market and tight credit▪ Affects mobility▪ Housing supply
Economic recovery▪ Affects immigration
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Two methods Cohort survival▪ Kindergarten (births as proxy)▪ Migration (survival rates)
Housing unit▪ Housing units▪ School age child per dwelling unit ratio▪ Public school capture rate
RESIDENT BIRTHSYear Minnesota Mower County Austin City1994 64,277 453 2681995 63,259 430 2701996 63,681 404 2451997 64,491 430 2501998 65,207 467 2961999 65,953 475 3072000 67,451 523 3562001 66,617 535 3632002 68,037 539 3832003 70,053 536 3652004 70,617 509 3462005 70,950 538 3852006 73,515 575 4352007 73,675 549 3582008 72,382 633 460
KINDERGARTEN POOL
What is it? Adjusting births to required age to enroll in kindergarten Births reported by calendar year Must be 5 as of September 1 enroll in
kindergarten▪ About one-third born six years earlier and
two-thirds born five years earlier
KINDERGARTEN POOLBirth Years Pool Percentage Kindergarten1994; 1995 437 62.2% 2000-011995; 1996 411 65.2% 2001-021996; 1997 420 71.9% 2002-031997; 1998 455 57.1% 2003-041998; 1999 472 63.3% 2004-051999; 2000 507 75.7%* 2005-062000; 2001 531 67.0% 2006-072001; 2002 538 69.9% 2007-082002; 2003 537 68.3% 2008-092003; 2004 518 71.6% 2009-102004; 2005 528 2010-112005; 2006 563 2011-122006; 2007 558 2012-132007, 2008 605 2013-14
MOWER COUNTY BIRTH PROJECTIONS
Projected BirthsYear Low High2008 633 6332009 544 5562010 542 5612011 540 5642012 539 5682013 537 5722014 534 576
MINNESOTA PROJECTED BIRTHS
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
69,00070,00071,00072,00073,00074,00075,00076,00077,00078,00079,000
Births
Births
KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS
Low Middle High2010-11 365 365 3702011-12 390 390 3942012-13 386 386 3912013-14 419 419 4242014-15 397 403 4072015-16 376 387 3912016-17 374 390 3942017-18 373 392 3972018-19 372 394 3992019-20 370 398 403
NET MIGRATION SUMMARY
NET MIGRATIONFALL TO FALL
00 to 01
01 to 02
02 to 03
03 to 04
04 to 05
05 to 06
06 to 07
07 to 08
08 to 09
K-5 50 9 -8 33 14 -11 -35 -13 516-8 -13 22 18 27 16 16 16 11 119-12 -117 -60 -53 -52 22 -36 -50 -49 8Total -80 -29 -43 8 52 -31 -69 -51 70
NET IN MIGRATION BY GRADE
Change in net flow Kindergarten to Grade 1 until all day
kindergarten; now a small net flow out Net inflow from
Grade 5 to Grade 6 Grade 8 to Grade 9
Net outflow from Grade 10 to Grade 11 Grade 11 to Grade 12
NET MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS
Two assumptions Low is the average of survival rates of
the past four years High is the average of survival rates of
the past two years
MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS
GradeSurvival Rates
Low High
K to 1 0.984 0.9931 to 2 0.986 1.0222 to 3 1.008 1.0053 to 4 0.997 0.9924 to 5 1.024 1.0485 to 6 1.044 1.0476 to 7 0.996 0.9957 to 8 1.006 0.9978 to 9 1.019 0.9959 to 10 0.948 0.98910 to 11 0.963 0.96411 to 12 0.952 0.998
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
YearLow K
Low MigMiddle KLow Mig
Middle KHigh Mig
High KHigh Mig
2009-10 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,3732010-11 4,352 4,352 4,394 4,3992011-12 4,405 4,405 4,470 4,4792012-13 4,481 4,481 4,571 4,5852013-14 4,614 4,614 4,718 4,7372014-15 4,739 4,745 4,870 4,8942015-16 4,823 4,840 4,993 5,0202016-17 4,898 4,931 5,110 5,1422017-18 4,951 5,002 5,210 5,2472018-19 4,961 5,034 5,258 5,3012019-20 4,967 5,067 5,311 5,360
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
K-5 6-8 9-12 Total2009-10 2,152 897 1,324 4,373
2014-15 Low K/Low M 2,292 1,185 1,262 4,739 Middle K/Low M 2,298 1,185 1,262 4,745 Middle K/High M 2,371 1,218 1,281 4,870 High K/High M 2,394 1,218 1,281 4,8942019-20 Low K/Low M 2,227 1,245 1,495 4,967 Middle K/Low M 2,327 1,245 1,495 5,067 Middle K/High M 2,404 1,321 1,587 5,311 High K/High M 2,431 1,337 1,592 5,360
HOUSING UNIT METHOD
Change in age of adults 2010-2020▪ Population in household formation years (20-
34 yrs) increases less than from 2000-2010 ▪ Decrease in population in the “move up”
housing years (35-54 yrs)▪ Usually have children in the household▪ Prefer single-family detached units
▪ Huge increase in population 65+ years
ADULT POPULATIONMINNESOTA
Age 2000 2010 2020 2000-2010
2010-2020
20-34 yrs 995,621 1,148,080 1,155,370 152,459 7,29035-54 yrs 1,489,878 1,567,580 1,520,860 77,702 -46,72055-64 yrs 404,869 631,090 788,290 226,221 157,20065+ yrs 594,266 677,270 947,520 83,004 270,250
Sum 3,484,634 4,024,020 4,412,040 539,386 388,020
ROLE OF HOUSING Dwelling unit type affects the school age
child per household ratio Only single-family detached units have a high
yield of school age children New dwelling units yield more students
than older units As existing units turnover (sold), the school
age child per household goes down, except for the very newest units
Value of units affects school age child ratio
HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS
540 additional households by 2019-20
Increase school age child per household 0.41 in 2008 0.44 in 2014-15 0.45 in 2019-20
Increase public school capture rate 87.2% in 2008-09 88% in 2014-15 and 2019-20
HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS
HOUSING UNIT METHOD ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Assumptions
ResidentsAUSTIN District
Nonresidents
TotalEnrollmen
tHousehol
dsTotal APS
2014-15(+240 units)@0.44; 88%
5,210 4,585 130 4,715 11,840
2019-20(+540 units)@0.45; 88%
5,463 4,807 130 4,937 12,140
PROJECTIONS COMPARISON
2014-15Residents Attendin
g APS Nonresidents
Total Enrollment Households
Housing Unit(+240 units)@0.44; 88%
4,585 130 4,715 11,840
CohortLow K/Low Mig 4,609 130 4,739 11,905
Middle K/Low Mig 4,615 130 4,745 11,918
Middle K/High Mig 4,740 130 4,870 12,241
High K/High Mig 4,764 130 4,894 12,305
PROJECTIONS COMPARISON
2019-20Residents Attending
APS Nonresidents
TotalEnrollment Households
Housing Unit(+ 540 units)@0.45; 88%
4,807 130 4,937 12,140
CohortLow K/Low Mig 4,837 130 4,967 12,216Middle K/Low Mig 4,937 130 5,067 12,467Middle K/High Mig 5,181 130 5,311 13,084High K/High Mig 5,230 130 5,360 13,207
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