epidemics on networks ii · compartmental models summary model early time late time epidemic...

Epidemics on networks II

Leonid E. Zhukov

School of Data Analysis and Artificial IntelligenceDepartment of Computer Science

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Network Science

Leonid E. Zhukov (HSE) Lecture 13 20.03.2020 1 / 1

Global contagion: Coronavirus COVID-19

from NYT

Global contagion: Coronavirus COVID-19

from NYTLeonid E. Zhukov (HSE) Lecture 13 20.03.2020 3 / 1

Coronavirus COVID-19

from Mark Handley, UCLLeonid E. Zhukov (HSE) Lecture 13 20.03.2020 4 / 1

Modeling SARS outbreak

SARS 2003: > 8, 000 cases, 37 countries

Simulated SIR model:gray lines - passenger flow, red symbols epidemicslocation

D. Brockmann, D. Helbing, 2013

Modeling SARS outbreak

Shortest path tree from Hong Kong

D. Brockmann, D. Helbing, 2013

Flight routes of the world

Flight routes form a scale free network

Alessandro Vespignani et all, 2006

Compartmental models summary

Model early time late time Epidemic threshold

SI i0eβt 1 -

SIS (1− γβ )e(β−γ)t 1− γ

β ; 0 R0 = 1

SIR exponential 0 R0 = 1

from Barabasi, 2016

Probabilistic node-level model

network of potential contacts (adjacency matrix A)

probabilistic model (state of a node):si (t) - probability that at t node i is susceptiblexi (t) - probability that at t node i is infectedri (t) - probability that at t node i is recovered

β - individual transmission/infection rate (probably to get infected ona contact in time δt) f transmitting contacts per unit time; βc = β〈k〉γ - recovery rate (probability to recover in a unit time δt). Incompartmental model βc - transmission/infection rate, number o

from deterministic to probabilistic description

connected component - all nodes reachable

network is undirected (matrix A is symmetric)

Probabilistic model

Two processes:

Node infection:

Pinf ≈ βsi (t)∑

j∈N (i)

xj(t)δt

Node recovery:

Prec = γxi (t)δt

SI model

SI ModelS −→ I

Probabilities that node i : si (t) - susceptible, xi (t) -infected at t

xi (t) + si (t) = 1

β - infection rate, probability to get infected in a unit time

xi (t + δt) = xi (t) + βsi∑j

Aijxjδt

infection equations

dxi (t)

dt= βsi (t)

Aijxj(t)

xi (t) + si (t) = 1

SI model

System of differential equations

dxi (t)

dt= β(1− xi (t))

early time approximation, t → 0, xi (t)� 1

dxi (t)

dt= β

dt= βAx(t)

Solution in the basisAvk = λkvk

x(t) =∑k

ak(t)vk

SI model

vk = β∑k

Aak(t)vk = β∑k

ak(t)λkvk

dak(t)

dt= βλkak(t)

ak(t) = ak(0)eβλk t , ak(0) = vTk x(0)

Solutionx(t) =

ak(0)eλkβtvk

t → 0, λmax = λ1 > λk

x(t) = v1eλ1βt

1 growth rate of infections depends on λ1

2 probability of infection of nodes depends on v1 , i.e eigenvectorcentrality

SI model

Fractions of susceptible and infected vertices of various degrees in the SImodel.The highest values of k give the fastest growthimage from M. Newman, 2010

SI simulation

1 Every node at any time step is in one state {S , I}2 Initialize c nodes in state I

3 On each time step each I node has a probability β to infect itsnearest neighbors (NN), S → I

Model dynamics:

I + Sβ−→ 2I

SI model simulation

β = 0.5

SI model simulation

β = 0.5

SI model simulation

β = 0.5

SI model simulation

β = 0.5

SI model simulation

β = 0.5

SI model simulation

β = 0.5

SI model

SIS model

SIS ModelS −→ I −→ S

Probabilites that node i : si (t) - susceptable, xi (t) -infected at t

xi (t) + si (t) = 1

β - infection rate, γ - recovery rate

infection equations:

dxi (t)

dt= βsi (t)

Aijxj(t)− γxi

xi (t) + si (t) = 1

SIS model

Differential equation

dxi (t)

dt= β(1− xi (t))

Aijxj − γxi

early time approximation, xi (t)� 1

dxi (t)

dt= β

Aijxj − γxi

dxi (t)

dt= β

(Aij −γ

βδij)xj

dt= β(A− (

β)I)x(t)

dt= βMx(t), M = A− (

SIS model

Eigenvector basis

Mv′k = λ′kv′k , M = A− (

β)I, Avk = λkvk

v′k = vk , λ′k = λk −γ

Solution

x(t) =∑k

ak(t)v′k =∑k

ak(0)v′keλ′kβt =

ak(0)vke(βλk−γ)t

λ1 ≥ λk , critical: βλ1 = γ-if βλ1 > γ, x(t)→ v1e

(βλ1−γ)t - growth-if βλ1 < γ, x(t)→ 0 - decay

SIS model

Define epidemic threshold R:

if βγ > R - infection survives and becomes epidemic

if βγ < R - infection dies over time

In compartmental SIS model βc

In network SIS model βγ :

λ1, λ1 − largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix

R =〈k〉〈k2〉

SIS simulation

1 Every node at any time step is in one state {S , I}2 Initialize c nodes in state I

3 Each node stays infected τγ =∫∞

0 τe−τγdτ = 1/γ time steps

4 On each time step each I node has a prabability β to infect itsnearest neighbours (NN), S → I

5 After τγ time steps node recovers, I → S

Model dynamics: {I + S

β−→ 2I

Iγ−→ S

SIS model simulation

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIS model

β = 0.2, τ = 2

SIS model

SIR model

SIR ModelS −→ I −→ R

probabilities si (t) -susceptable , xi (t) - infected, ri (t) - recovered

si (t) + xi (t) + ri (t) = 1

β - infection rate, γ - recovery rate

Infection equation:

= βsi∑j

Aijxj − γxi

= γxi

xi (t) + si (t) + ri (t) = 1

SIR model

Differential equation

dxi (t)

dt= β(1− ri − xi )

Aijxj − γxi

early time, t → 0, ri ∼ 0, SIS = SIR

dxi (t)

dt= β(1− xi )

Aijxj − γxi

Solutionx(t) ∼ v1e

(βλ1−γ)t

SIR model

image from M. Newman, 2010

SIR simulation

1 Every node at any time step is in one state {S , I ,R}2 Initialize c nodes in state I

3 Each node stays infected τγ = 1/γ time steps

4 On each time step each I node has a prabability β to infect itsnearest neighbours (NN), S → I

5 After τγ time steps node recovers, I → R

6 Nodes R do not participate in further infection propagation

Model dynamics: {I + S

β−→ 2I

Iγ−→ R

SIR model

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.5, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.2, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.2, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.2, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.2, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.2, τ = 2

SIR model

β = 0.2, τ = 2

SIR model

5 Networks, SIR

Networks: 1) random, 2) lattice, 3) small world, 4) spatial, 5) scale-free

image from Keeling et al, 2005

5 Networks, SIR

Networks: 1) random, 2) lattice, 3) small world, 4) spatial, 5) scale-free

Keeling et al, 2005

References

Epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks. Y. Moreno,R. Pastor-Satorras, and A. Vespignani., Eur. Phys. J. B 26, 521?529,2002.

Networks and Epidemics Models. Matt. J. Keeling and Ken.T.D.Eames, J. R. Soc. Interfac, 2, 295-307, 2005

Simulations of infections diseases on networks. G. Witten and G.Poulter. Computers in Biology and Medicine, Vol 37, No. 2, pp195-205, 2007

Small World Effect in an Epidemiological Model. M. Kuperman andG. Abramson, Phys. Rev. Lett., Vol 86, No 13, pp 2909-2912, 2001

Manitz J, Kneib T, Schlather M, Helbing D, Brockmann D. OriginDetection During Food-borne Disease Outbreaks - A Case Study ofthe 2011 EHEC/HUS Outbreak in Germany. PLoS Currents, 2014

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