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FOURTH QUARTER AND 2012 RESULTS8 MARCH 2013
LUCA BETTONTE, CEO
2
DISCLAIMER
This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based.There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.
3
AGENDA
2012 Highlights✓ Key Figures✓ Delivery and main Achievements
Results Review✓ Business Environment✓ 4Q 2012 Group EBITDA✓ Results by Segments
Key Financials✓ Profit & Loss✓ Investments ✓ Cash Flow Statement
2013 Guidance and ConclusionsAppendix
4
RC Ebitda Adj (€mn)
HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES
284
458
39%
27%
NFP Adj (€ mn)
Leverage
RC Net Profit (€ mn)
2011 4Q 2012
Strong Renewables and Power, still weak R&M bottom line back to positive
POWER & GAS
RENEWABLES
REFINING & MARKETING
CORPORATE
(49)0
0
239
696
(31) 29(11)(6)
12 10
2012 4Q 20112011 4Q 20122012 4Q 2011
55128
328
137
(28)21
89
3710(9)
1,179
722
31/12/2011 031/12/2012(1)
DERIVATIVESNFP EXCL. DERIVATIVES
1,125
638
(1) Adjusted Net Financial Position at 31/12/2012 does not include NFP of ISAB SrlHighlights
(17)
43
5484
5
458
2012 FCST
ACTUAL VS EARLY 2012 GUIDANCE
2012
165≈175
LIQUIDITY PF OTHER AT MLT
722≈900
EBITDA:
CAPEX:
NFP:
✓ -6% due to further rationalisation of R&M Capex
2012 Financials: strong delivery
RENEWABLES CORPORATER&MP&G
0
0
0
✓ -20% thanks to higher cash generation, lower Capex and
gimprovement in NWC
2012 FCST(2)
2012(2)
2012 FCST 2012
≈400(1)
✓ +15% driven by Power and Renewables
(1) Guidance announced in May 2012 (1Q 2012 Results), then revised to >420 in December 2012 (Business Plan 2013-2015) (2) 2012 investments include 20% ISAB investment (€7mn) as of September 2012, €7mn of wind acquisition in Romania, and €25mn ca. for the gggacquistion of Tcherga (Bulgaria)
Highlights
6
2012 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS
• Selected growth in Italy1: completion of Amaroni (24MW) and PsG (34MW)2 brought to construction
• Expansion in East-Europe: Bulgaria (40MW3 operative) and Romania (84MW3 under construction)
• Acquisition of Maestrale (636MW, 550MW in Italy and 86MW in Germany)
• Exiting gas projects (Ionio Gas and Rivara Storage)
• FY contribution from MSD (“Second Dispatching Market”)
Highlights
Renewables: keep growing
Power: streamlining business model
R&M: progressive reduction of refining activities
• 20% exercise of ISAB refinery
• Closure of Rome refinery and start-up of conversion works into a logistic hub
Financials: 2012 guidance well exceeded (both EBITDA and NFP)
1. FdL (98MW) in operation and Project Financed for €126mn in 1Q 20122. Palazzo San Gervasio applied for GSE auction in December 2012 and successfully bid in January 2013 with the lowest discount among competitors3. Considering 100% of LukERG Renew (50% ERG Renew)
• FY EBITDA and NFP considerably better than guidance given in early 2012
• Ongoing optimization of the Group’s indebtedneness allocation among businesses
• Value creation for shareholders through dividend (0.4€/share) and buy-back (5% own shares)
7
RESULTS REVIEW
FINANCE DIRECTOR
PAOLO MERLI
8
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012
ITALIAN PRICE ZONAL PRICE SICILY CIP6
Electricity Prices (€/Mwh)
106
123
94 91
79
66
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012
EMC Margin ($/bbl)
(2.29)
(1.10)
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012
Industry Retail Fuels Volumes (M tons)
6.39
5.78
Results Review
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012
FRANCE ITALY BULGARIA
Renewables: Electricity Prices (€/Mwh)
161
146
8790
94 96
9
1,292
2011
0
284
89
68
15 3
Power & GasRenewables Refining & Marketing Corporate 2012
458
FY 2012 GROUP EBITDA
Ebitda growth driven by Power, Renewables and improvement in R&M
Results Review
10
RC Ebitda (€ mn)
RENEWABLES RESULTS
113
128
35 43
740
350
Volumes (Gwh)
Solid and growing figures in Renewables
2937
2
26
3
34
0
0
Results Review
137
8
128
68
7
61
2011(1)
4Q 2011(1)2012
4Q 2012
20114Q 2011
20124Q 2012
272
1,222
1
1
22
13
ITALY FRANCE BULGARIA
(1) 2011 does not include Water Services (about €1mn)
627
1,072
237 294
11
86 87
2425
153
241
2064
RC Ebitda (€ mn)
POWER RESULTS
239
89
Volumes (Gwh)
Strong results, both at ERG Power and ISAB Energy
6,670ERG POWERISAB ENERGY
2011
4Q 2011
0
0
Results Review
6,997
1,4681,765
2012
4Q 2012
3,655
3,015
4,077
2,920
711
757
1,037
728
2011
4Q 2011
2012
4Q 2012
328
43
12
1610
5(1)
86
46
21
15
RC Ebitda (€ mn)
MARKETING RESULTS
102
56
2011
4Q 2011
4Q 20124Q 2011
EOS TOTALERG
Market Share (%)
Lower industry consumptions in a tougher competitive environment
EOSTOTALERG
1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012
12.0% 12.1%
1.1%0.8%
0
Results Review
26
14
20124Q 2012
13
RC Ebitda (€ mn)
REFINING RESULTS: COASTAL AND INLAND
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012
Margins ($/bbl)
(1.42)
1.83
(2.29)
4.54
2.60
5,1793,854
1,257384
(96)
(35)
10,090
8,333
2011 2012
20114Q 2011
Volumes(2) (k tons)
Refining improved, but still negative
(3)
(33)
(6)
(30)
0
0
(1) Inland Refining EBITDA includes Logistics(2) Volumes relate to 100% of TOTALERG stake in Rome (100%) and Sarpom (24%)
Results Review
EMC MARGIN
COASTAL REFINING MARGIN
INLAND REFINING MARGIN
4Q 2011 4Q 2012
2,5431,065
20124Q 2012
(20)
(76)
(1)(3)
(36)
(4)
INLAND REFININGCOASTAL REFINING
(1)
(1.10)
4,911
4,479
1,286681
14
KEY FINANCIALS
15
2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011
458 284 RC Adjusted EBITDA 128 55
(242) (247) Amortization and depreciation (57) (71)
216 37 RC Adjusted EBIT 70 (16)
(64) (48) Net financial income (expenses) (13) (12)
(0) (0) Net income (loss) from equity investments 1 (1)
152 (11) RC Results before taxes 58 (28)
(89) (7) Income taxes (34) 13
64 (18) RC Results for the period 24 (15)
(52) (31) Minority interests (14) (2)
12 (49) RC Net profit 10 (17)
PRO-FORMA REPLACEMENT COST P&L
Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures
Key Financials
16
ADJUSTED INVESTMENTS
77
58
20 20
53
71
10 17
22 35
815
(1) Renewables adjusted for LUKERG Renew (50%).(2) R&M adjusted for TOTALERG (51%) and for ISAB Srl (40% from January to August 2012).(3) 2012 Investments include 20% ISAB investments (€7mn) as of September 2012, and €7mn of wind acquisition in gg Romania plus €25mn ca. for the acquisition of Tcherga (Bulgaria)
Key Financials
156
39
20114Q 2011
(€ mn)
0
4Q 2012
165
52
2 1
CORPORATEREFINING & MARKETINGRENEWABLESPOWER & GAS
(2)
(3)
(1)
2012
35
(3)
1
17
722
513
39%
27%
21%
Adj. Net Debt
31/12/2011
Cash Flowfrom operation
WorkingCapital CAPEX(1) Financial
Charges
Adj. Net Debt
31/12/2012
NFP 51% TotalErg and
50% LUKERG Renew
Net Debt31/12/2012reported
Leverage
FY 2012 ADJUSTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
33(209)
0
Wind Acquisition in Bulgaria
and Romania
Taxesand Other
(378)
53
Key Financials
Dividends & Buyback
Cash-in 20% Put
ISAB
Change in representation
for ISAB Srl
1,179
(485)(85) 126
64
88
126
(1) CAPEX do not include 20% ISAB investments (€7mn) as of September 2012
18
2013 GUIDANCE AND CONCLUSIONS
CEO
LUCA BETTONTE
19
458
>500
2012
2013 GUIDANCE AND CONCLUSIONS
2013 FCST
165
≈190
2012(1)2013 FCST
2012 2013 FCST
LIQUIDITY PF OTHER AT MLT
722
≈1,300
✓2013 Economic guidance in line with BP:
- Renewables: full year contribution of IP Maestrale
- Power: still favourable local market conditions
- R&M: lower exposure to refining
EBITDA:
CAPEX:
NFP:
✓2013 Capex guidance confirmed and in line with BP
Strong growth through a sustainable business model
RENEWABLES CORPORATER&MP&G
0
0
0
Guidance and Conclusions
✓2013 NFP guidance confirmed and in line with BP
(1) 2012 investments include 20% ISAB investment (€7mn) as of September 2012, €7mn of wind acquisition in Romania, and €25mn ca. for the gggacquistion of Tcherga (Bulgaria)
20
APPENDIX
21
2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011
12,463 11,145 Adjusted Revenues 2,652 2,968
458 284 RC EBITDA Adjusted 128 56
137 69 - Renewables 37 29
328 239 - Power & Gas 89 43
21 6 - Refining & Marketing 10 (11)
(28) (31) - Corporate (9) (6)
FY AND 4Q 2012 RESULTS
Stronger Renewables results, solid in Power, improved in R&M
Appendix
22
1,292
4Q 2011
0
56
46
9
21 (3)
Power & GasRenewables Refining & Marketing Corporate 4Q 2012
128
4Q 2012 GROUP EBITDA
Ebitda growth driven by Power, Renewables and improvement in R&M
Appendix
23
2012 2011 4Q 2012 4Q 2011
596 548 Installed capacity (end-period) 596 548
1,222 740 Electricity Production (GWh) 350 272
128 113 of which in France (GWh) 43 35
151 154 ERG Renew price - Italy (Eu/MWh) 142 159
70 71 Electricity price (Eu/MWh) 62 77
80 82 Green Certificates price (Eu/MWh) 80 82
89 87 ERG Renew price - France (Eu/MWh) 90 87
137 69 RC EBITDA (Eu mn) 37 29
(66) (50) Depreciation (Eu mn) (18) (21)
71 19 RC EBIT (Eu mn) 20 8
RENEWABLES: KEY FIGURES
Appendix
24
2012 2011 4Q 2012 4Q 2011
4,077 3,655 Sales (Gwh) 1,037 711
631 513 Sales (€ mn) 162 107
241 153 RC EBITDA (Eu mn) 64 20
192 102 RC EBIT (Eu mn) 52 7
88% 79% Net capacity utilization (%) 88% 61%
123 106 CIP6 tariffs (Eu/MWh) 123 106
149 72 EBITDA IT GAAP (Eu mn) 44 3
ISAB ENERGY: KEY FIGURES
Appendix
25
2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011
2,920 3,015 Electricity Production (GWh) 728 757
87 86 RC EBITDA 25 24
(27) (33) Depreciation (7) (9)
61 53 RC EBIT 18 15
ERG POWER: KEY FIGURES
Appendix
26
2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011
53 82 Adjusted RC EBITDA 11 19
56 102 - Marketing 14 26
(3) (20) - Inland refining and logistics (3) (6)
(59) (60) Adjusted Depreciation (14) (15)
(6) 22 Adjusted RC EBIT (3) 4
37 38 Investments 13 13
11.2% 11.8% TOTALERG retail market share(2) 12.1% 12.0%
1.0% 1.0% EOS retail market share 0.8% 1.1%
INTEGRATED DOWNSTREAM: KEY FIGURES(1)
Appendix
(1) Figures are adjusted for 51% stake in TOTALERG as of October 1, 2010(2) Estimated market share referring to 100% of TOTALERG
Tough scenario led to weak Marketing results
27
2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011
107 89 Gross refining margin 21 6
(32) (76) Adjusted RC EBITDA (1) (30)
(38) (49) Adjusted Depreciation (6) (13)
(70) (124) Adjusted RC EBIT (7) (43)
21(2) 39 Investments 7 7
COASTAL REFINING: KEY FIGURES(1)
Appendix
(1) Figures are adjusted for ERG’s stake in ISAB Srl (40% from January to August 2012)(2) 2012 investments include 20% ISAB investments (€7mn) as of September 2012
Improved Refining environment
28
1,179 1,023
68334%
27%21%
Adj. Net Debt30/09/2012
Cash Flowfrom operation
WorkingCapital
CAPEXFinancial Charges
Adj. Net Debt31/12/2012
NFP 51% TotalErg and
50% LUKERG Renew
Net Debt31/12/2012reported
Leverage
4Q 2012 ADJUSTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
37(209)
0
1,02313 7
Wind Acquisition in
Romania
Taxesand Other
(108)
(349)99
722
513
Appendix
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