essential report 120326
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8/2/2019 Essential Report 120326
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26March2012
1531PelhamStreet
Carlton
Victoria3053
Phone0399299903
Mobile0416121969
Withdatasuppliedby
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8/2/2019 Essential Report 120326
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AboutthePoll
ThisreportsummarisestheresultsofaweeklyomnibusconductedbyEssentialResearchwithdataprovidedbyYourSource.Thesurvey
wasconductedonlinebetweenthe21stand25
thMarch2012andisbasedon1,045respondents.
Asidefromthestandardquestiononvotingintention,thisweeksreportincludesquestionsontheeconomy,theKony2012campaign,
takingsickdays,theAustraliandollarandtheminingboom.
Themethodologyusedtocarryoutthisresearchisavailableintheappendixonpage14.
Notethatduetorounding,notalltablesnecessarilytotal100%andsubtotalsmayalsovary.
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Federalpoliticsvotingintention
Q.IfaFederalElectionwasheldtodaytowhichpartywillyouprobablygiveyourfirstpreferencevote?Ifnotsure,whichpartyareyou
currentlyleaningtoward?
Q.Ifdontknow-Wellwhichpartyareyoucurrentlyleaningto?
Samplesize=1,923respondents
Firstpreference/leaningto Election21Aug10
4weeks
ago
27/2/12
2weeks
ago
12/3/12
Lastweek
19/3/12
Thisweek
26/3/12
Liberal 46% 46% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
TotalLib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 48% 47%
Labor 38.0% 32% 31% 32% 34%Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 10% 9% 9%
2PP Election
21Aug10
4weeks
ago
2weeks
ago
Lastweek Thisweek
TotalLib/Nat 49.9% 56% 57% 56% 54%
Labor 50.1% 44% 43% 44% 46%
NB.Thedataintheabovetablescomprise2-weekaveragesderivedfromthefirstpreference/leaningtovotingquestions.Respondents
whoselectdontknowarenotincludedintheresults.Thetwo-partypreferredestimateiscalculatedbydistributingthevotesoftheother
partiesaccordingtotheirpreferencesatthe2010election.
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TheEconomy-HeadingintheRight/WrongDirection
Q.Overall,fromwhatyouhavereadandheard,doyouthinktheAustralianeconomyisheadingintherightdirectionorthewrongdirection?
17May10
(Post2010budget)
9May11
(Post2011budget)
4Jul11 26Mar12 Vote
Labor
Vote
Liberal/National
Vote
Greens
Therightdirection 51% 45% 37% 36% 65% 19% 47%
Thewrongdirection 25% 29% 43% 41% 15% 64% 23%
Dontknow 24% 25% 20% 22% 21% 17% 30%
36%ofrespondentsthinkthatAustraliaseconomyisheadingintherightdirection41%thinkitisheadinginthewrongdirection.Opinions
havechangedlittlesincethisquestionwasaskedinJulylastyear-rightdirectionhasdropped1%andwrongdirectiondropped2%.
65%ofLaborvoters,19%ofLiberal/Nationalvotersand47%ofGreensvotersthinktheeconomyisheadingintherightdirection.
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PartyBestatHandlingEconomy
Q.WhichpartydoyouthinkwouldbebestathandlingtheAustralianeconomyintheinterestsofyouandpeoplelikeyou?
4Jul11 26Mar
12
Vote
Labor
Vote
Lib/Nat
Vote
GreensTheLaborParty 26% 29% 76% 1% 39%
TheLiberalParty 43% 41% 2% 89% 7%
Nodifference 23% 20% 14% 7% 45%
Dontknow 8% 10% 7% 4% 9%
41%(down2%sinceJulylastyear)thinktheLiberalPartywouldbebestathandlingtheAustralianeconomyintheirinterestsand29%(up
3%)nominatedtheLaborParty.20%thinkthereisnodifference.
Thereweresignificantdifferencesbyincome-thoseearningunder$600pwsplit38%Labor/30%Liberalwhilethoseearningover$1,600pwfavouredtheLiberalParty49%to23%Labor.
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TheEconomy
Q.Overthenext12monthsdoyouthinkeconomicconditionsinAustraliawillgetbetter,getworseorstaymuchthesame?
1Dec08
15Jun09
5Oct09
28Jun10
18Oct10
4April11
4Jul11
3Oct11
26Mar1 VoteLabor
VoteLib/Nat
VoteGreens
Totalbetter 21% 43% 66% 33% 40% 27% 22% 16% 25% 42% 17% 26%
Totalworse 61% 37% 15% 31% 30% 37% 49% 58% 46% 29% 60% 37%
Getalotbetter 2% 5% 8% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 3% 5% 2% 1%
Getalittlebetter 19% 38% 58% 28% 34% 23% 19% 14% 22% 37% 15% 25%
Getalittleworse 45% 28% 11% 23% 20% 27% 31% 41% 31% 25% 36% 34%
Getalotworse 16% 9% 4% 8% 10% 10% 18% 17% 15% 4% 24% 3%
Staymuchthesame 13% 17% 15% 30% 24% 27% 25% 22% 21% 24% 19% 26%
Noopinion 5% 3% 4% 7% 6% 8% 4% 4% 7% 4% 4% 12%
Confidenceintheeconomicoutlookhasstrengthenedwiththepercentageofrespondentsbelievingconditionstobegettingbetter
increasing9pointsto25%,from16%inOctoberlastyear.Thosebelievingthateconomicconditionswillgetworseoverthenext12months
hasfallen12pointsfrom58%to46%.
Laborvotersareoptimisticoverall-42%better/29%worse.Coalitionvotersarethemostpessimistic,with60%believingthatthingwillget
worseoverthenext12monthsandonly17%better.
Therewaslittledifferenceacrossincomegroups.
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Personalfinancialsituation
Q,Overthenext12monthsdoyouthinkyourpersonalfinancialsituationwillgetbetter,getworseorstaymuchthesame?
28Jun
10
18Oct
10
4April
11
4Jul
11
3Oct
11
26M ar12 Vot e
Labor
Vote
Lib/Nat
Vote
Greens
Totalbetter 29% 33% 32% 28% 24% 28% 34% 25% 36%
Totalworse 31% 29% 31% 36% 41% 37% 29% 42% 34%
Getalotbetter 5% 6% 7% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 14%
Getalittlebetter 24% 27% 25% 23% 20% 23% 29% 21% 22%
Getalittleworse 21% 21% 22% 23% 27% 27% 22% 30% 27%
Getalotworse 10% 8% 9% 13% 14% 10% 7% 12% 7%
Staymuchthesame 37% 32% 32% 32% 32% 29% 32% 31% 25%
Noopinion 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 5% 5% 2% 5%
28%(up4%sinceOctoberlastyear)ofrespondentsbelievethattheirpersonalfinancialsituationwillgetbetterinthenext12monthsand
37%worse(down4%).29%(down3%)expectittostaymuchthesame.However,theseresultsareverysimilartothoseofJuly2011.
Greensvoters(36%better)andLaborvoters(34%)arethemostlikelytobelievethattheirpersonalfinancialsituationwillgetbetterover
thenext12months,whereasCoalitionvotersarethemostlikelytobelievethattheirswillgetworse(42%).
Peopleonlowerincomesweremorepessimisticabouttheirpersonalfinancialoutlook-thoseearningunder$600perweeksplit22%
better/49%worse-comparedtothoseearningmorethan$1,600pwwhosplit36%better/30%worse.
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Jobsecurity
Q.Howconcernedareyouthatyouorsomememberofyourimmediatefamilywilllosetheirjobinthenextyearorso:veryconcerned,
somewhatconcerned,ornotatallconcerned?
8Jun
09
5Oct
09
28Jun
10
18Oct
10
4Apr
11
4Jul
11
3Oct
11
26Mar
12
Vote
Labor
Vote
Lib/Nat
Vote
Greens
Totalconcerned 52% 49% 43% 40% 43% 45% 47% 49% 43% 55% 34%
Veryconcerned 13% 14% 9% 11% 11% 13% 14% 13% 9% 16% 8%
Somewhatconcerned 39% 35% 34% 29% 32% 32% 33% 36% 34% 39% 26%
Notatallconcerned 35% 40% 38% 42% 43% 39% 37% 36% 44% 31% 51%
Dontknow 6% 6% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 7% 9%
Noemployeesinthe
immediatefamily
8% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%
Concernoverjobsecurityhasrisenslightlysincethelasttimethequestionwaspolled,increasing2pointsupfrom47%inOctober2011to49%(totalconcerned).
Inthe12monthsfromApril2011,totalconcernhasincreasedfrom43%to49%.
Coalitionvotersarethemostlikelytobeconcernedthattheyoramemberoftheirimmediatelyfamilywilllosetheirjobinthenextyearor
so(55%totalconcerned),whereasGreensvotersarelesslikelytobeconcerned(34%totalconcerned).
Therewerenomajordifferencesacrossincomeoragegroups-exceptfortheunder25swhere41%wereconcernedand48%notatall
concerned.
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AwarenessofKony2012
Q.Overthepastcoupleofweeksavideomadebythenon-for-profitorganisationInvisibleChildrencalledKony2012wasputuponthe
internet.HaveyouheardoftheKony2012videoorcampaign?
Total Men Women Aged
18-34
Aged
35-54
Aged
55+
Yes 68% 68% 68% 78% 68% 56%
No 27% 27% 27% 19% 28% 37%
Notsure 5% 4% 5% 3% 5% 7%
68%saidtheyhadheardoftheKony2012videoorcampaign.
Youngerrespondentsweremostlikelytobeawareofthecampaign-althoughamajorityofalldemographicgroupssaidtheyhadheardofit.
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InvolvementwithKony2012Campaign
Q.Whichofthefollowingapplytoyou?
Total Men Women Aged
18-34
Aged
35-54
Aged
55+Iwassentanemaillink,Facebookmessageortweetaboutthisfroma
friend
41% 36% 45% 63% 32% 18%
IhavereadaboutKony2012inthemedia 75% 73% 76% 73% 74% 78%
Isearchedonlineforthevideo 19% 18% 20% 31% 14% 8%
IwatchedallofthevideoKony2012 24% 20% 28% 37% 17% 15%
IwatchedpartofthevideoKony2012 29% 28% 29% 34% 26% 25%
IvisitedtheKony2012website 13% 10% 15% 17% 11% 7%
Ipledgedsupporttothecampaignonthewebsite 7% 6% 8% 10% 6% 4%
Ihavedonatedorboughtthekit 5% 6% 5% 9% 4% 3%
Isentamessagetothepolicymakersandculturalmakers 5% 6% 3% 7% 4% 3%BeforethisvideoIhadnotheardofInvisibleChildrenorJosephKony 63% 57% 70% 64% 63% 62%
Ihavepreviouslysupportedinternationalaidorganisationsor
campaigns
42% 38% 46% 43% 38% 49%
*BasedonthosewhohaveheardofKony2012
Ofthoseawareofthecampaign/video,morethanhalfsaidtheyhadwatchedallorpartoftheKony2012video-althoughthemost
commonwayofhearingaboutthecampaignwasinthemedia(75%).
63%saidtheyhadneverheardoftheInvisibleChildrenorJosephKonybeforethevideo.
However,onlyasmallproportiontookanyformofactionasaresultofthecampaign-7%pledgedsupportonthewebsiteand5%saidthey
donatedorboughtthekit.
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TakingSickDays
Q.Whichofthefollowingapplytoyouoverthelast12months?
Total Men Women Aged
18-34
Aged
35-54
Aged
55+Ihavetakenasickie(thatis,adayoffworkwhenyouwerentreally
sick)
23% 23% 22% 30% 21% 8%
Ihavetakenadayoffsickwithoutadoctorscertificate 51% 49% 52% 55% 53% 34%
Ihavetakenadayoffsickwithadoctorscertificate 47% 49% 44% 49% 49% 33%
IhavegonetoworkwhenIwassick 81% 83% 78% 83% 82% 70%
*basedofthosewhoworkedinpaidemploymentoverthelast12months
Morethanthreetimesasmanyrespondentssaidthat,overthelast12months,theyhadworkedwhentheyweresickthanhadtakenasickie.81%saidtheyhadgonetoworkwhentheyweresickand23%saidtheyhadtakenadayoffworkwhentheywerentreallysick.
Men(83%)werealittlemorelikelythanwomen(78%)togotoworkwhentheyweresick.
Thoseagedunder35werealittlemorelikelytotakeasickie(30%)butwerealsomorelikelytogotoworkwhentheyweresick(83%).
Olderrespondentsseemtobelesslikelytogetsickatall-70%saidtheyhadworkedwhensick-andonly34%hadtakenadayoffwitha
doctorscertificateand33%withoutadoctorscertificate.
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ImpactofDollaronIndustry
Q.TheAustraliandollarisnowat$1.05USandhasbeenhistoricallyhigherthanthenormalrangeof60c-80cUS.IsthehighAustraliandollar
isgoodorbadforthefollowingindustries?
Totalgood
Totalbad
Verygood
Good Neithergood
norbad
Bad Verybad
Dontknow
Miningindustry 29% 29% 10% 19% 20% 24% 5% 22%
Farming&GrazingIndustry 16% 49% 4% 12% 16% 36% 13% 19%
FinanceIndustry 38% 15% 9% 29% 25% 12% 3% 21%
ConstructionIndustry 24% 26% 4% 20% 28% 22% 4% 23%
Manufacturingindustry 15% 50% 3% 12% 14% 29% 21% 20%
RetailIndustry 23% 47% 6% 17% 14% 30% 17% 16%
AustralianTourismIndustry 20% 56% 8% 12% 10% 31% 25% 14%
Overall,respondentsthinkthatthehighAustraliandollarhasonlybeengoodforthefinanceindustry(38%good/15%bad).
Theybelievethatithasbeenparticularlybadforthetourismindustry(20%good/56%bad),themanufacturingindustry(15%/50%),the
farmingandgrazingindustry(16%/49%)andtheretailindustry(23%/47%)
Ontheminingindustry,theyweresplit29%good/29%bad.
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ImpactofMiningBoomandDollar
Q.Hastheminingboomandthehighdollarbeengoodorbadfor-
Total
good
Total
bad
Very
good
Good Neither
goodnor
bad
Bad Very
bad
Dont
know
Theeconomygenerally 52% 12% 11% 41% 22% 10% 2% 15%
Jobsgenerally 42% 18% 8% 34% 26% 15% 3% 14%
Youpersonally 23% 10% 5% 18% 55% 8% 2% 10%
Amajority(52%)thinkthattheminingboomandthehighdollarhasbeengoodfortheeconomyandaremorelikelytothinkithasbeen
goodforjobs(42%good/18%bad).
61%ofLaborvoters,53%ofGreensvotersand51%ofCoalitionvotersthinkithasbeengoodfortheeconomy.
55%thinkithasbeenneithergoodnorbadforthempersonally.Forthoseonincomesover$1,600pw,32%thinkithasbeengoodforthem
personallyand9%bad.
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AppendixOneMethodology
ThedatagatheredforthisreportisgatheredfromaweeklyonlineomnibusconductedbyYourSource.YourSourceisanAustraliansocial
andmarketresearchcompanyspecializinginrecruitment,fieldresearch,datagatheringanddataanalysis.YourSourceholdsInterviewerQualityControlAustralia(IQCA)accreditation,AssociationMarketandSocialResearchOrganisations(AMSRO)membershipandWorld
AssociationofOpinionandMarketingResearchProfessionals(ESOMAR)membership.SeniorYourSourcestaffholdAustralianMarketand
SocialResearchSociety(AMSRS)membershipandareboundbyprofessionalcodesofbehavior.
EssentialResearchhasbeenutilizingtheYourSourceonlinepaneltoconductresearchonaweekbyweekbasissinceNovember2007.Each
Monday,theteamatEssentialMediaCommunicationsdiscussesissuesthataretopical.Fromthereaseriesofquestionsaredevisedtoput
totheAustralianpublic.Somequestionsarerepeatedeachweek(suchaspoliticalpreferenceandsocialperspective),whileothersare
uniquetoeachweekandreflectprominentmediaandsocialissuesthatarepresentatthetime.
YourSourcehasaself-managedconsumeronlinepanelofover100,000members.Themajorityofpanelmembershavebeenrecruited
usingofflinemethodologies,effectivelyrulingoutconcernsassociatedwithonlineself-selection.YourSourcehasvalidationmethodsin
placethatpreventpanelistoveruseandensurememberauthenticity.YourSourcerandomlyselects18+malesandfemales(withtheaim
oftargeting50/50males/females)fromitsAustraliawidepanel.Aninvitationissentouttoapproximately70008000oftheirpanel
members.Theresponseratevarieseachweek,butusuallydelivers1000+responses.TheYourSourceonlineomnibusislivefromthe
TuesdaynightofeachweekandclosedonthefollowingSunday.Incentivesareofferedtoparticipantsintheformofpoints.
EMCusestheStatisticalPackagefortheSocialSciences(SPSS)softwaretoanalysethedata.ThedataisweightedagainstAustralian
BureauofStatistics(ABS)data.
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