ets electric feasibility study - edmonton · 1.3.1 customer perceptions of the e-buses 1:4 1.3.2...
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ELECTRICBUSFEASIBILITYSTUDYFORTHECITYOFEDMONTON
JUNE2016
A REPORT PREPARED BY
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
1 EXECUTIVESUMMARY
1.1 DESCRIPTIONOFMANDATE 1:11.2 CONCLUSIONS 1:11.3 MAINFINDINGS 1:41.3.1 CUSTOMERPERCEPTIONSOFTHEE-BUSES 1:41.3.2 ETSANDCITYSTAFFPERCEPTIONSOFTHEE-BUSES 1:41.3.3 DESCRIPTIONOFTHEFIELDTRIALS 1:51.3.4 EXPECTEDRELIABILITYOFE-BUSESINSERVICE 1:61.3.5 EXTERNALITIES 1:71.3.6 ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTOFE-BUSESATETS 1:81.3.7 THEELECTRICBUSTECHNOLOGYANDITSEVOLUTION 1:91.4 THEBUSINESSCASEFORE-BUSESINEDMONTON 1:101.5 RECOMMENDATIONS 1:13
2 DESCRIPTIONOFMANDATE
2.1 OBJECTIVESOFTHISSTUDY 2:12.2 METHODOLOGY 2:12.3 LIMITATIONSOFTHISREPORT 2:2
3 DESCRIPTIONOFFIELDTRIALS
3.1 THEELECTRICBUSESUSEDFORWINTEREVALUATION 3:13.2 DURATIONANDTIMINGOFTHETRIALS 3:43.3 DUTYCYCLESOFTHEBUSES 3:53.4 CLIMATICCONDITIONSDURINGTHETRIALS 3:63.5 DATACOLLECTIONDURINGTHEFIELDTRIALS 3:73.6 AVAILABILITYOFTHEBUSESDURINGTRIALS 3:73.7 EXTRAORDINARYEVENTS 3:73.8 ANALYSISANDSUMMARYOFTRIALS 3:83.8.1 RANGE,STATEOFCHARGE(SOC),ENERGYUSAGE(TOTALTESTAVERAGE) 3:83.8.2 TEMPERATUREANDENERGYUSAGE 3:103.8.3 ROUTEANALYSIS 3:133.8.4 IMPACTOFSLOPEONENERGYCONSUMPTION 3:143.8.5 INTERIORBUSTEMPERATUREANALYSIS 3:183.8.6 OTHERPERFORMANCEPARAMETERS 3:203.9 KEYFINDINGS 3:21
4 CUSTOMERPERCEPTIONSOFTHEE-BUSES
4.1 METHODOLOGY 4:14.2 E-BUSRIDERPERCEPTIONS(ASMEASUREDDURINGTRIALS) 4:24.2.1 BUSMODEL 4:24.2.2 NOTICEDADIFFERENTDESIGNOFETSBUS 4:24.2.3 RESPONDENTPROFILE 4:24.2.4 INTERESTINETSBUYINGELECTRICBUSES 4:34.2.5 WILLINGNESSTOPAYMOREFORBUSSERVICETOALLOWETSTOPURCHASEELECTRICBUSES 4:4
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4.2.6 EVALUATIONOFELECTRICBUSEXPERIENCED 4:54.2.7 TEMPERATUREEVALUATION 4:74.3 PRE-TRIALPERCEPTIONS(ETSRESEARCH) 4:74.4 KEYFINDINGS 4:9
5 ETSANDCITYSTAFFPERCEPTIONSOFTHEE-BUSES
5.1 METHODOLOGY 5:15.2 PRE-TRIALPERCEPTIONSOFOPERATORSANDMAINTENANCESTAFF 5:15.2.1 BUSOPERATORS 5:15.2.2 MECHANICALANDMAINTENANCESTAFF 5:25.3 POST-TRIALPERCEPTIONSOFOPERATORSANDMAINTENANCESTAFF 5:35.3.1 BUSOPERATORS 5:35.3.2 MECHANICAL,MAINTENANCEANDSERVICESTAFF 5:55.4 KEYFINDINGS 5:7
6 EXPECTEDRELIABILITYOFE-BUSESINSERVICE
6.1 METHODOLOGY 6:16.2 RELIABILITYOFE-BUSESINOTHERSYSTEMS 6:26.2.1 BATTERYELECTRICBUSRELIABILITY,CANADA 6:26.2.2 BATTERYELECTRICBUSRELIABILITY,USA 6:36.3 RELIABILITYEXPERIENCEINWINTERFIELDTRIALSINEDMONTON 6:46.4 IMPACTOFWINTERPERFORMANCEOFE-BUSESONETS’S 6:76.4.1 TEMPERATURE 6:76.4.2 SERVICING 6:76.4.3 BUSDRIVING 6:86.5 LESSONSLEARNED 6:8
7 EXTERNALITIESANDRELATEDCOSTS
7.1 METHODOLOGY 7:17.1.1 METHODOLOGYUSEDTOANALYZEGRIDIMPACTS 7:17.2 BATTERYDEPLETIONANDFUEL-USE 7:27.2.1 SPACEHEATINGANDITSIMPACTOFENERGYEFFICIENCY 7:47.3 ASSIGNMENTOF40E-BUSESFROMWESTWOOD 7:57.3.1 BLOCKSANDROUTES 7:57.3.2 INTERLINING 7:57.3.3 BLOCKASSIGNMENTSTRATEGYANDDUTYCYCLE 7:57.3.4 EXTERNALITIESASSOCIATEDWITHTHEUSEOFTRICKLE-CHARGEDBUSES 7:67.3.5 EXTERNALITIESASSOCIATEDWITHTHEUSEOFEN-ROUTECHARGEDE-BUSES 7:77.4 OTHEREXTERNALITIES 7:97.5 KEYFINDINGS 7:9
8 ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTOFE-BUSESATETS
8.1 METHODOLOGY 8:18.2 CARBONFOOTPRINTOFDIESELBUSES 8:38.3 CARBONFOOTPRINTOFELECTRICBUSES 8:38.4 CARBONFOOTPRINTREDUCTION 8:48.5 CARBONLEVY 8:58.6 OTHERENVIRONMENTALEXTERNALITIES 8:58.7 KEYFINDINGS 8:5
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9 THEBUSINESSCASEFORE-BUSESINEDMONTON
9.1 METHODOLOGY 9:19.2 ASSUMPTIONS–CAPITALCOSTS 9:29.2.1 BUSPRICESFORECAST(ELECTRICANDDIESEL) 9:29.2.2 FACILITIES 9:29.3 ASSUMPTIONS–OPERATINGCOSTS 9:39.3.1 ROUTES 9:49.3.2 DUTYCYCLEANDOPERATINGCONDITIONS 9:49.3.3 COSTOFENERGY(ELECTRICITYANDDIESEL) 9:59.3.4 ENERGYCONSUMPTION 9:59.3.5 ENVIRONMENTALCOST 9:59.3.6 MAINTENANCEANDSERVICE(M&S)COSTS 9:69.3.7 FINANCIALHYPOTHESES 9:69.3.8 TRAININGCOSTS 9:79.3.9 TOOLINGANDRELATEDCOSTS 9:89.4 LIFECYCLECOSTOFDIESELBUSESINEDMONTON(REFERENCECASE) 9:99.5 LIFECYCLECOSTOFTRICKLE-CHARGEDELECTRICBUSESINEDMONTON 9:109.6 LIFECYCLECOSTOFEN-ROUTECHARGEDELECTRICBUSESINEDMONTON 9:119.7 KEYFINDINGS 9:11
10 THEELECTRICBUSTECHNOLOGYANDITSEVOLUTION
10.1 FUELCELLELECTRICBUSES 10:210.2 BATTERIES 10:310.3 OTHERCHARGINGMETHODS 10:410.3.1 CONDUCTIVECHARGING 10:410.3.2 INDUCTIVECHARGING 10:510.3.3 BOOSTCHARGING 10:6
11 CONCLUSIONSANDOTHERCONSIDERATIONS
11.1 LIMITATIONSOFTHESCALINGUPOFTHEREPORTSINTHISSTUDY 11:111.2 EXPECTEDFINANCIALIMPACTOFUSING40ELECTRICBUSESINEDMONTON 11:211.3 EXPECTEDENVIRONMENTALIMPACTOFUSING40ELECTRICBUSESINEDMONTON 11:411.4 RISKSASSOCIATEDWITHTHEUSEOFELECTRICBUSESATETS 11:411.5 OTHERRISKSANDBENEFITSASSOCIATEDWITHTHEUSEOFE-BUSESATETS 11:511.6 KEYSUCCESSFACTORSFORTHEUSEOFELECTRICBUSESBYETS 11:5
12 RECOMMENDATIONS
12.1 RISKSANDBENEFITSFORTHEE-BUSCASEINEDMONTON 12:112.2 E-BUSTECHNOLOGY 12:112.3 TIMING,NUMBERANDRATEFORTHEINTRODUCTIONOFE-BUSESATETS 12:112.4 CHANGESREQUIREDFORASUCCESSFULTRANSFORMATIONOFETS 12:212.4.1 ESSENTIALCHANGES 12:212.4.2 IMPORTANTCHANGES 12:212.4.3 PREFERABLECHANGES 12:312.5 OTHERRECOMMENDATIONS 12:312.6 NEXTSTEPS 12:4
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LISTOFTABLES
TABLE1.1 COMPARATIVELIFECYCLECOSTOFDIESELANDE-BUSTECHNOLOGIES(NPV) 1:11TABLE3.1 TESTBUSDETAILS 3:3TABLE3.2 TESTDURATION 3:4TABLE3.3 TESTROUTEBOOK-OUTSCENARIO 3:5TABLE3.4 SAMPLETESTBOOK-OUTDETAIL 3:5TABLE3.5 AVAILABILITYDATAFROMJAN7-FEB5 3:7TABLE3.6 ENERGYCONSUMPTIONANDRANGE 3:9TABLE3.7 BUSRANGEVS.BLOCKLENGTH 3:9TABLE3.8 ENERGYUSEDATAFROMOTHERSOURCES 3:10TABLE3.9 OTHERPERFORMANCEPARAMETERS-COMPARISON 3:20TABLE4.1 OPINIONOFRIDERSREGARDINGTHEPURCHASEOFE-BUSESBYETS 4:3TABLE4.2 EMPLOYMENTSTATUSOFRESPONDENTS 4:3TABLE4.4 WILLINGNESSTOPAYMOREFORBUSSERVICE 4:5TABLE4.5 WILLINGNESSTOPAYMOREFORBUSSERVICEBYSIZEOFINCREASEBYAGECATEGORY 4:5TABLE4.6 NOISECOMPARISON 4:6TABLE4.7 FUMESCOMPARISON 4:6TABLE4.8 SMOOTHNESSOFRIDECOMPARISON 4:7TABLE4.9 TEMPERATUREONBUS 4:7TABLE5.1 PREANDPOSTTRIALQUALITATIVERESEARCHWITHSTAFF 5:1TABLE5.2 POSITIVEANDNEGATIVEPERCEPTIONSOFOPERATORS 5:4TABLE5.3 PERCEIVEDCHANGESTOOPERATIONSREQUIREDTOENABLEADOPTIONOFELECTRICBUSES 5:5TABLE5.4 POSITIVEANDNEGATIVEPERCEPTIONSOFM&SSTAFF 5:6TABLE6.1 MAINTENANCEEVENTS-ELECTRICBUSES 6:4TABLE6.2 OTHERMAINTENANCEORDESIGNISSUES-ETSELECTRICBUSES 6:5TABLE6.3 BATTERYELECTRICBUSCOMPONENTSANDATTRIBUTES 6:6TABLE7.3 SUBSTATIONCAPACITYLIMITATIONS 7:7TABLE7.4 TRANSITCENTRECHARGINGPOTENTIAL 7:8TABLE8.1 YEAR2013GRIDINTENSITY 8:1TABLE8.2 PROJECTED2034GRIDINTENSITY(WITHOUTCOAL) 8:2TABLE8.3 TOTALLIFEGHGEMISSIONSOFE-BUSES 8:4TABLE9.1 COSTOFBUSES 9:2TABLE9.2 COSTOFFACILITIESUPGRADE 9:2TABLE9.3 ESTIMATEDCOSTOFEN-ROUTECHARGINGSTATIONS 9:3TABLE9.4 MAINTENANCEANDSERVICECOSTFOR40’BUSESINEDMONTON 9:6TABLE9.5 MISCELLANEOUSASSUMPTIONS 9:6TABLE9.6 TRAININGCOSTS 9:8TABLE9.7 COSTBREAKDOWNOFTOOLINGREQUIRED 9:9TABLE9.8 REFERENCECASE:40’DIESELBUSES 9:10TABLE9.9 TRICKLE-CHARGEDE-BUSES,LIFECYCLECOST 9:10TABLE9.10 EN-ROUTECHARGEDE-BUSES,LIFECYCLECOST 9:11
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LISTOFFIGURESFIGURE1.1 CUMULATIVECOSTSOFDIESELANDE-BUSES 1-12IGURE3.1 TECHNOLOGYREADINESSASSESSMENTGUIDE-COMMERCIALIZATIONPROCESS 3:1FIGURE3.2 LITHIUMIONBATTERYFLOW 3:3FIGURE3.3 TEMPERATURESANDSNOWDAYCHART 3:6FIGURE3.4 TEMPERATUREVS.ENERGYFORBYDE-BUS 3:11FIGURE3.5 TEMPERATUREVS.ENERGYUSEFORNFIE-BUS 3:11FIGURE3.6 TEMPERATUREVS.STATEOFCHARGEBUS#6013 3:12FIGURE3.7 ENERGYUSEBYROUTEATTEMPERATUREBUS#6011 3:13FIGURE3.8 ENERGYUSEBYROUTEATTEMPERATUREBUS#6013 3:14FIGURE3.9 BUS#6013STATEOFCHARGEROUTE7 3:15FIGURE3.10BUS#6013STATEOFCHARGEONHILLS-ROUTE7 3:16FIGURE3.11BUS#6013STATEOFCHARGEUPHILL 3:17FIGURE3.12MAPOFROUTE7 3:17FIGURE3.13INTERIORBUSTEMPERATUREONCOLDDAY 3:18FIGURE3.14 INTERIORTEMPERATUREOFDIESELHEATEDBUSES 3:19FIGURE3.15INTERIORTEMPERATUREOFDIESELBUS 3:20FIGURE4.1 RIDERSURVEYQUESTIONNAIRE 4:1FIGURE4.2 SHOULDETSPURCHASEELECTRICBUSES? 4:4FIGURE4.3 WILLINGNESSTOPAYMOREFORBUSSERVICETOALLOWETSTOPURCHASEELECTRICBUSES 4:4FIGURE4.4 IMPORTANCEOFGREENFOCUS 4:8FIGURE4.5 CUSTOMEREVALUATIONOFELECTRICBUSFEATURESCOMPAREDTOOTHERETSBUSES 4:9FIGURE8.1 ALBERTAPOWERGRIDFORECASTEDINTENSITY 8:2FIGURE9.1 YEARLYREFERENCEDISTANCEFORECASTEDFORDIESELBUSESINEDMONTON 9:5FIGURE10.1HYDROGENFUELCELLBUS 10:2FIGURE10.2COSTOFLI-IONBATTERIES2010-2030 10:3FIGURE10.3FIXEDPANTOGRAPH 10:5FIGURE10.4MOBILEPANTOGRAPH 10:5FIGURE10.5FIXEDINDUCTIONPLATE 10:5FIGURE10.6MOBILEINDUCTIONPLATE 10:5FIGURE11.1CAPITALEXPENSES(CAPEX)FORDIESELANDE-BUSES(20YEARSLIFE) 11:2FIGURE11.2OPERATINGEXPENSES(OPEX)FORDIESELANDE-BUSES(20YEARSLIFE) 11:3
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LISTOFAPPENDICESAPPENDIX1: LEXICONANDOTHERUSEFULINFORMATION 1APPENDIX2: BLOCKANALYSISOFTHEWESTWOODGARAGE(SAMPLE) 5APPENDIX3: MID-LIFECOSTREBUILD–DETAILEDCOSTS 7APPENDIX4: DETAILEDMAINTENANCECOSTS 9APPENDIX5: LESSONSLEARNEDFROMTHEFIELDTRIALS 11
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1 ExecutiveSummary
1.1 DescriptionofMandateTheprimaryobjectiveofthisstudy,undertakenbyMARCON,wastodeterminewhetherornotitisfeasibletointroducebatteryelectricbuses(“e-buses”)inserviceinEdmonton.Shoulde-busesreliablyoperateinEdmonton’swinterconditionswithoutmajorrestrictions,thenMARCONwastaskedtoassesstheeconomicandenvironmentalimpactsofintegratingthemintotheEdmontonTransitSystem(ETS)fleet.
Theprojectalsoaimedatgaugingtheperceptionsoftheriderswithregardstoe-busesaswellastheattitudeofETSandFleetServicesstafftowardsthem.
Finally,MARCONexaminedthepotentialimpactofe-busesonfactorsexternaltoETS:theCity,itscitizensandthepowergrid.
Basedonthefindingsofthisstudy,MARCONwasaskedtoformulaterecommendationsforconsiderationbytheTransportationCommitteeoftheCityregardingtheadoptionofelectricbusesintheETSfleet.
1.2 ConclusionsBasedontheinformationavailableatthetimethisreportwasprepared,MARCONpredictsthatelectricbusesusedinserviceinEdmontoncanperformasreliablyastherestofthefleetofdieselbusesbutwillrequirethoroughplanning,training,andresourcestoensuretheCityofEdmontonderivesthefullbenefitsoftheiruse.
Electricbusesgenerateenvironmentalandpotentialeconomicbenefits.Ane-busoperatingtodaywillemitapproximately38-44%lessCO2
e-(fromthepowergenerators)thanitsdieselequivalent.Althoughimportantfromthestart,theenvironmentalbenefitsforEdmontonwillincreaseovertime,asthepowerusedtochargethebusesoriginatesfromanincreasinglycleansource.Itisalsoexpectedthattheeconomicbenefitsofusinge-busesrelativetousingthedieselbuseswillgrowinthefutureasthecostofoperatingdieselbuseswilloutpacethatofe-busesduetodieselfuelpriceincreases,torisingcarboncostandtoelectricitypricescontinuingtoprogressataslowerpacethanthatofdiesel,ashasbeenthecaseinthepast.
E-busesareabetterchoicefortheenvironmentthanthecurrentdieselfleet.Investmentinelectricvehiclesimprovesairqualityinthecity,andintheatmosphere.Theelectrictransportationmodalshiftisexpectedtoaccelerateasthecostofbatteriesdecreasesandelectricvehicleperformanceimproves.ETScanbeacatalystforthistransitionbydemonstratinghowelectricvehiclescanoperatereliablyinEdmonton’swinterclimate,andbycausingtheutilitiesandregulatorstoplanfortheinfrastructuremodificationsthatarerequiredfortheiruse.
BasedontheresultsofthefieldtrialconductedinEdmontonandontheexperienceofotherCanadiantransitsystems'evaluationsduringwintermonths,e-busescanbe
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expectedtooperateeffectivelyinEdmontoninwinterwithintheoperatinglimitationsofthetechnology.
Whileelectricmotorshavelongbeenusedinindustry,batteriesasamainsourceofenergymadetheirentryinthetransitmarketlessthan10yearsagowiththeadventofdiesel-electrichybridbuses.Fromareliabilityperspective,theyhaveperformedverywell.Batteriesinstalledondiesel-electrichybridbuseshaveinfactexceededindustryexpectationsintermsoftheirlifeanddegradationperformances.Butnewbatterychemistriesarereachingthemarket,sometimeswithoutthebenefitofaproventrackrecord.ThisrepresentsariskforETSbutatleastonemanufacturerhasexpressedawillingnesstoofferinnovativefinancingtermsfortheirbusesthatmightmakeitpossibletoshifttheriskofownershipoftheenergystoragesystemtothemanufacturer.
Handlingbatteriesinthemaintenancegarageorinthecontextofaccidentsrequiresthatoperators,firstrespondersandmaintenancestaffknowtherisksassociatedwiththebatterychemistryselectedwhene-busesarepurchased,andthatallpersonnelbetrainedaccordinglytomitigatesuchrisks.
Adoptinganewtechnologyinvariablypresentsoperationalrisksaswell.Ifnothingelse,timeisrequiredforstafftoadapttothenewvehicles.Thefieldtrialhasshownthatoperatorshavequicklyadaptedtothetestvehicleswithaminimalamountoftrainingandunderconditionsthatwerenotidealgiventheequipmentprovidedbymanufacturerswasavailableforsuchashortperiodoftime.Theadaptationperiodwillbelongerformaintenancestaffastechnicianswillhavetolearntodealwithissuescurrentlyunfamiliartothem.
Thecurrentshorterrangeofe-busescomparedtodieselbusestheoreticallyimpliesthatmoree-busesmayberequiredtoprovidealevelofserviceequivalenttodieselbuses.However,MARCON’sevaluationofcurrentserviceplansshowsthatETSoperatesasufficientnumberofblocks1withtotaldistancewellwithintherangeofe-buses(evenwitha15%to20%energyreservemargin)thatitcanplacee-busesinservicewithoutconcernorsignificantchangetoitsoperations.
Trickle-chargedbusescanservicealmost85%oftheweekdayblocksbut,becausetheblockscallforlongerdistancesduringtheweekend,thesesamebusescanbeassignedtoonlyathirdofthecurrentblocksonSaturdaysandSundays.Aconsiderablylargerproportionoftheweekendblockscouldbeallocatedtotrickle-chargede-busesifthedesignofblockswasoptimizedforelectricbuses.Futuregenerationsofelectricbusesarealsoexpectedtototallymitigatethissituation.Asforen-routechargede-buses,theycanservicealltheblockscurrentlyservicedbytheWestwoodgarage,provideden-routechargersarelocatedatallthetransitstationswherethee-buseswillvisit.
1 Blocks:thesetofrouteassignmentstobeservicedonasingletripbyabus(fromdepartingthegaragetoreturningtothegarage).
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Althoughfieldtrialsrevealedthate-busesareabletonegotiatethesteepesthillsintheETSserviceareawithoutsufferinganadverseimpactonrange,theyalsodemonstratedthattheuseofdieselheatersonane-busprovidesmorecertaintyregardingtherangeofthevehicle,withminimalenvironmentalimpact.Theoperationofelectricheatersrequiresabout20%oftheenergystoredinthebatteries,furtherreducingtheeffectiveoperatingrangeofthebus.EvidenceatotherCanadiantransitagenciesthatevaluatedthebusesinsummerindicatesairconditioninghasasimilarnegativeeffectonrange.
Twochargingtechnologieswereappraisedduringthisproject:(rapid)en-routecharging(pantographsinstalledattransitcentresprovideaquickchargetothebuses-5minutes)and(slow)tricklecharging(busesarechargedatthegarageovernightand/orbetweenblocks).Theuseofen-routechargede-busespresentsrisksthataredifferentthanthoseofoperatingtrickle-chargedbuses.Withtheformer,thecharginginfrastructurerequiredcanberestrictiveintermsofrouteplanningflexibilityasthecostofmovingthechargingequipmentonceinplaceishigh.Withtrickle-chargedbuses,anelectricitygridfailurewherethegarageislocatedmaycripplethee-busfleetforthedurationofthefailure(unlessasufficientlylargebackupgeneratorisinstalled).Thecurrentrangeoftrickle-chargede-busescanalsolimittheblocksthatcanbeassignedtothosebuses.
Oneofthebenefitsofusingeithertypeofe-busistheexpectedincreaseincustomersatisfaction.Alargemajorityofcurrentcustomersexpressedtheirpreferencefortheseclean,quiete-buses.Almosttwo-thirdsofthesurveyrespondentsareevenwillingtopayapremiumtoridethem.
Usingthelatestgenerationofe-buseswillalsohaveanimpactontheimageofEdmontonasbeingaprogressive,environmentallyconsciouscity.
Theintroductionofasmallfleetofe-busesatETScanbeaccommodatedbythecurrentcapacityoftheelectricitygridinEdmonton;particularlyattheproposednewNorthEastTransitGarage(NETG).However,ife-busesareintroducedinlargenumbers,portionsoftheelectricitygridinEdmontonmayneedtobeupgradedtoensurethereissufficientpoweratthelocationswherethelargefleetwouldbecharged.
Electricbusesusedinthefieldtrialweresimplyassignedtoexistingblocks.TheseblockswerecreatedtoserveETSclienteleusingdieselbuses.ThedutycycleusedfortheeconomiccalculationsperformedbyMARCONwasnotoptimizedfore-buses.Consequently,theeconomiclifecyclecostforecastpresentedinthisstudymustbeconsideredconservative.Thelifecyclecostassociatedwithpurchasingandoperating40e-busesoutofthenewNETGiscomparabletothatofusingthelatestgenerationofdieselbusesonthemarketasitfallswellwithinthemarginoferrorprovidedinthisreport.Thenetpresentvalueofthelifecyclecostofafleetof40latestgenerationdiesel,tricklechargedelectric,anden-routechargedelectricbusesisrespectively$69,596,176,$69,916,319and$89,859,999.Thereisnosignificantdifferenceinthelifecyclecostofsubstitutingdieselbusesbytrickle-chargede-buses.MARCONthereforeconcludesthatitistechnicallyandeconomicallyfeasibletointroducee-busesintheETSfleet.
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1.3 Mainfindings
1.3.1 Customerperceptionsofthee-buses
Asurveyofriderswasundertakento:
• Assessbususers’perceptionsofelectricbuses• Determinehowelectricbusfeaturesimpactthequalityandcomfortoftheride• DetermineifriderswouldlikeETStopurchaseelectricbuses• AscertainriderwillingnesstopaymoreforbusservicetoallowforETStopurchase
electricbuses.
Intotal,2,825questionnaireswerecollectedfromETScustomersridingontheelectricbusesthatwerebeingtested.Socio-demographicinformationwascollected(age,employmentstatusandnumberofone-waytripspertypicalweek)todeterminepotentialstatisticallysignificantdifferencesbypopulationsegment.
Theresultsofthesurveyarestatisticallysignificantataconfidencelevelof95%withamarginoferrorof±1.8.TheresultsofthesurveywerecomparedtotheAugust2014ETSsurvey"StealthBusCustomerSurvey-InterimToplineReport".
BothsurveysfoundthatEdmontonbusridersareveryfavourabletoe-buses.E-buseswereconsideredsuperioroneveryperformanceaspectevaluatedbycustomers.
1.3.2 ETSandCityStaffperceptionsofthee-buses
MARCONundertookqualitativeresearchwiththestaffthatwasinvolvedinthefieldtest.Focusgroupdiscussionsandin-personinterviewswereundertakenwithbusoperatorsandwithmaintenanceandmechanicalstaff,preandposttheelectricbustrials.
Fromastaffperspective,integratinge-busesintotheETSfleetandoperationswillrequire:• Relevanttrainingofbusoperationsandmechanical,maintenanceandservicestaff• Preparationwithunionstoresolvepotentialissuesrelatedtocompensationand
responsibilities• Busdesignthatreflectstheneedsofdriversandriders.
Adequatetrainingwillbekeytoensuringstaffbuy-inandasmootherintegrationofthenewtechnology.Thestaffinterviewed,particularlythebusoperators,areconfidentthatwithsufficienttraining,“gettingaccustomedtothisnewtechnologywillbelikegettingaccustomedtoanynewbus”.Generally,busoperatorsareverypositiveconcerningtheadoptionofe-busesinEdmontonastheyfeelitwouldbeanimprovementfortheirpassengersandforthemselves.MaintenanceandservicepersonnelremainedcautiouswithregardstotheirintegrationinETS’fleet.
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1.3.3 DescriptionoftheFieldTrials
Twomodelsofelectricbuseswereevaluatedduringthefieldtrials:oneBYD40-foot(40’)SecondGenerationbus;and,oneNewFlyer40’bus.TheBYDbushada324kWhLithiumIronPhosphatebatteryandanauxiliarydieselheatertoprovideheattothepassengercompartment.TheNewFlyerhada200kWhLithium-nickel-manganese-cobaltbatteryandwasheatedwithadiesel/electricheatercombination.TwoNewFlyerXcelsiordieselbuses(modelyear2013)wereprovidedfromtheETSfleettoprovideacontrolbaselineforcomparisonpurposes.NewFlyerIndustriesisbasedinWinnipeg(MB);BYDisaChineseownedcompanybutmanufacturesitse-busesfortheNorthAmericanmarketatitsplantinLancaster(CA)and,accordingtoBYD,68%oftheircomponentsaresourcedin
NorthAmerica.AsecondBYDbuswithanelectricheaterarrivedinEdmontonattheendofJanuaryandwasnotaformalpartofthefieldtrialalthoughoperatingdatawascollectedbyETS.BusesfromthetwoothermanufacturersinNorthAmerica,NovaBusandProterra,werenotavailableforthefieldtrials.
Despitetherelativelyshortevaluationperiodoffiveweeks,MARCONwasabletomakereasonablecomparisonsbetweenthebusesbycarefullydesigningthetestroutesandcapturingoperatingdata,alongwithrouteandweatherfactorsforameaningfultestatETS.
TheBYDbusaccumulated3,750km,theNFIbus2,834km,andthetwodieselcontrolbuses5,082and4,464kmrespectively.Thetestprogramwasdesignedtoanswerseveralquestions,butmainly:cane-busesperformonallroutesinwinterconditionsinEdmonton?Serviceblockswerechosenforeachtestroutethatcoveredbothmorningandafternoonpeakserviceoverthesteepesthillsinthenetwork.Asmuchaswaspractical,thetestblocksalsooperatedonhighercapacityroutes,andthroughtherivervalleyupanddownhills.Thesetestroutesincludedserviceonweekdaysonly.Thetestbuseswereoperatedonsomeweekendsasoperatorandbusavailabilityallowed.
Temperatureandsnowdatafortheevaluationperiodwererecordedwithobservationsnotedtwicedailyonweekdays,andonceonweekendsattimesthatcorrespondedapproximatelytothemiddleoftheselectedrouteruntimesforthebuses.Edmontonexperiencedanunseasonablywarm2015-2016winter,andformostofthetestperiod.Colderdayswereexaminedcloselyandcomparedtowarmerdaysforenergyusedata.Onboardtemperaturedatawasalsorecordedandthee-busesallmaintainedtemperaturesabove15oCthroughouttheirruns,evenonverycolddays.
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Theelectricbuseswerequitereliableandoperatedmostdaysatover90%availabilityduringthefieldtrial.Problemswerecorrectedwithinareasonableamountoftime.Noelectricpropulsionsystemproblemsoccurredduringthefieldtrialsandallmaintenanceitemswererelatedtonon-propulsionsystemsduringthetestperiod.
Operatingrangeandenergyusewereprimaryfactorsindeterminingbusoperatingstrategyandcostanalysis.TheBYDbusconsumedlessenergyperkm(1.04-1.25kWh/km)thantheNFIbus(1.25-1.38kWh/km)resultinginrecommendedeffectiverangefortheBYDbusof220-264kmandtheNFIbusof116-128km(themostconservativefigurewasusedinoureconomicandenvironmentalimpactcalculations).Thedifferenceinrangeisexplainedbythedisparityinbatterysizeandbythetechnologiesusedforheatingtheinteriorofthebuses.Thedieselcontrolbuseshaveamaximumrangeof800km.TheseresultswerecomparabletothosearrivedatinothertrialsinCanadaandtheUS.Nodirectcorrelationwasobservedbetweenenergyusageandambientoutdoortemperature,whichreachedbelow-20oConseveraldays.However,ifelectricheatersareused,rangecoulddecreasebetween15and25%.
Theinteriornoiselevelfortheelectricbusesatidleisnoticeablylowerthanfordieselbuses.Underacceleration,thenoiselevelsarecomparable.TheaccelerationoftheNFIe-busismarginallyfasterthantheBYDbusandthedieselbus.Howevertheaccelerationofboththeelectricbusesismuchsmootherwithmoretorquethanthedieselbusesavailableatlowerspeeds.Brakingdistancesarecomparable.
1.3.4 Expectedreliabilityofe-busesinservice
E-buseshaveonlybeenoperatinginCanadaonatestbasisbutthereareafewlargerfleetsinoperationintheUSA,inAsia,andinEurope.Areviewofthesetestsandreportsandtheanalysisofthedifferencesbetweenstandarddieselbusesande-busesprovidedareasonablemeasureandqualifiedcommentariesonthegeneralreliabilityofe-buses.
DuringtheETStestprogram,therewereanumberofmaintenanceandoperatingproblemsnotdirectlyrelatedtobatterypropulsiontechnologyoritsaccessoriesthatkeptthebusesofftheroadformaintenancepurposes.Somedowntimewasattributabletotechnicianandoperatorunfamiliarityorunavailabilityofsomesparepartsforthevehicles.Inalargerin-servicefleet,significanteffortswouldbemadetospecifybusesindetail,arrangetrainingforoperators,serviceandmaintenancestaffs,andprovideservicesupport,partssupply,andwarrantyterms.
MARCONreviewedmanyaspectsofbusreliabilityfromnumeroussources:TheETStest,othertestliterature,communicationwithmanufacturersandbusproperties,fieldmeetings,personalbusmaintenanceandoperatingexperience,amongothers.Thisstudyhasfoundthatbatterye-busreliabilityisatanacceptablelevelforETSbusoperationsandmaintenance,beingatleastasreliableasdieselbuses.
TheotherCanadianevaluationsofelectricbusesinrevenueserviceconfirmedthatthebusestestedwerereliable.InWinnipeg,itwasconcludedthatbatteryelectrictransitbusesperformreliablyandefficientlyinManitoba’sextremecoldclimate.TheSociétéde
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transportdel'Outaouais(STO)andSociétédetransportdeMontréal(STM)evaluationsconcludedthattheperformanceofe-busesintermsofautonomy,operatingtimeandregularitywouldallowtheiruseoveralargeportionoftheMontréalandOutaouaisnetworks.TheSociétédetransportdeLavalconcurredwiththisconclusion.
Theinformationavailableregardingthereliabilityofe-busestestedorevaluatedintheUSAconfirmstheresultsobtainedbyCanadiantransitproperties.TheAltoonatestsofelectricbusesidentifiednumerousdeficienciesfoundwithallthreeelectricbusestested(BYD,NFIandProterra).Ofthethreetestsconducted,theNewFlyerXE40wasfoundtohavethefewestdeficiencies.TheBYDbuswasfoundtohavethemost.BYDimmediatelydesignedremediationmeasurestocorrectallthedeficienciesfound.ThelatestgenerationoftheBYDbusesisexpectedtohavefarfewerreliabilitydeficienciesasaresultofthesedesignchanges.
Electrificationoftransitbuseshasbeenevolvingformanyyearsinvariousforms.Trolleybuseshavebeenoperatingwithelectricalcomponentsallovertheworldfordecades.Hybridbuseswithelectricalcomponentshavebeencommonandabundantforseveralyears,andfuelcellinsmallerdemonstrationfleetsaroundtheworld.Thisexperienceallowsrapiddevelopmentofe-buses,usingwell-knownandgenerallyreliabletechnologies.
Theliteraturereview,theinformationobtainedfromotherNorthAmericantransitpropertiesaswellastheresultsfromthefieldtestinEdmontonrevealedthate-busesastestedare,fromanelectricdriveviewpoint,atleastasreliableasdieselbusescurrentlydeployedatETS.
1.3.5 Externalities
Externalitiesrefertocostsandbenefitsassociatedwiththechoicetoinvestine-busesthatarenotincurreddirectlybyETSbutthatmustbeconsideredinabroaderperspectivebyamunicipalgovernment.Ascenarioof40e-busesassignedtotheproposednewNETGwasusedforthispurpose.Onelimitingfactorwhenconsideringlarge-scaledeploymentofe-busesistheimpactontheelectricalgrid,andtheassessmentofavailablepoweratpotentialcharginglocations.
EPCORprovideddatafromwhichMARCONwasabletocalculatethemaximumnumberofbusesthatthispoweravailabilitycouldservice.AnanalysiswasthenconductedtodeterminetheenergyrequiredtosupportserviceblocksoperatingfromtheNETG.Fromthisanalysispotentialblocksthate-busescouldservicewereidentified.Finally,theoptimalassignmentofe-busestopotentialblockswasdetermined.Thestateofcharge(SoC)ofabusanditstotalbatterycapacitydeterminethechargingrequiredtosupplyasufficientamountofenergytothebatterysoitcan(minimally)serviceitsnextblockassignment.
Fromanexternalitiesviewpoint,thereareadvantagestoeache-bustechnology.En-routechargedbusescanbededicatedtothelongerblocks.Thisissignificantbecausethemoredistanceane-buscovers,thegreaterfinancialbenefitityieldscomparedtoits
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diesel-fuelledcounterpart.Themostsignificantadvantageofdistributedchargingstrategiesfromariskmitigationperspectiveisthattherearemorephysicalconnectionstotheelectricalgrid.Consequently,thereisgreaterredundancyintheinfrastructuresystem.Asfortricklecharging,itsmainbenefitisthelowerinitialinvestmentrequired.Charginginfrastructurewouldbelocatedinthegarageaccommodatingthee-buses.Addingchargingstationstothisfacilitywillnotrepresentasubstantialinvestmentcomparedtothecostofmodifyingeighttransitcentresinadditiontotheplannedgarage.
Distributingthechargingprocessofbusesthroughoutthecityhasmanypositivebenefitsforthecity’selectricalinfrastructure,deliveringEPCORwithabetterdistributionoftheadditionalloadoveritsexistingpowergrid.ThiscanprovideopportunitiesforEPCORtoimprovethereturnontheirinfrastructureinvestment.
1.3.6 Environmentalimpactofe-busesatETS
TheGHGintensityofAlberta’sgridisexpectedtodecreaseovertimeasolderand“dirtier”powerplantsaredecommissioned.Toprojectafuturegridintensity,MARCONextrapolatedutilizationofinstalledcapacitybasedonAlberta’s2014electricityproductionreportsandAESO’slong-termoutlookestimates,bothfutureinstalledcapacitiesandtotaldemandinyears2019,2024,and2034.Thegridintensitywouldbeexpectedtodropfrom0.81tonsofCO2equivalentpermegawatt-hour(TCO2
e-/MWh)in2014to0.46TCO2e-
/MWhin2034.
In2015,theETSfleetof40-footdieselbusesemitted61,230TCO2e-fromthecombustionofdiesel,andafurther23,300TCO2
e-fromupstreamemissionsassociatedwithitsproduction.IntheEdmontonfieldtrial,the2013Xcelsiorbusesachievedanaveragefuelefficiencyof49L/100km.DataprovidedbyETSforcalendaryear2015indicatesthatthese2013Xcelsiorbusesaredrivenanaverageof49,497km/year.Atthemeasuredconsumptionrate,acontemporarymodeldieselbusdrivingthatdistancewillgenerateemissionsof89TCO2
e-peryearor1,781TCO2e-initslifetime.Basedonthe2013Alberta
gridintensityfactor,ane-busoperatingtodaywillemitapproximately38-44%lessCO2e-
(fromthepowergenerators)thanitsdieselequivalent.By2034,thee-buswillemit72-74%lessCO2
e-.WhenusedaccordingtotheusagepatterndefinedbyETS(drivingonaverage49,450km)aBYDwillgenerate684TCO2
e-andtheNFI,776TCO2e-respectivelyin
lifetimeemissionsassociatedwithupstreamemissionsfrompowergeneration.Onacomparativebasis,thelatestavailablemodelofXcelsiordieselbusrunningonaverage49,450kmperyearfor20yearswouldemit89TCO2
e-/yearor1,761TCO2e-duringits20-
yearlife.
MARCONalsoconcludesthatitispreferabletoequipelectricbuseswithdieselheatersratherthantolosethepotentialrangeresultingfromthepowerconsumptionofelectricheaters.Theuseofadieselheated,BYDtrickle-chargedelectricbuswouldreducethebus’carbonfootprintby60%over20yearsofitslifewhilstreplacingadieselbusbyadieselheated,en-routechargedNFIelectricbuswouldreducetheGHGfootprintby56%.
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1.3.7 Theelectricbustechnologyanditsevolution
AlthoughitmayseemtheirarrivalontheCanadianmarketwasrathersudden,today’sbatterye-busesaretheresultofseveralgenerationsofvehicletechnology,whichhasbeenextendedtoincludeelectrictrains,tramways,trolleybuses,diesel-electrichybridbusesandfuelcellbuses.Thekeychallengefore-buseshasalwaysbeentheenergystoragesystem(ESS),inparticular,developingabatterychemistrythatmeetstheoperationalrequirementsofe-buses.Whilethereiscertainlyimprovementexpectedwiththecurrentoffering,today’sbatteriesalreadyallowe-busestocompetewiththecostoftraditionaldieselbusesonalifecyclebasis.
Theworldmarketforelectricandhybrid-electricbusesamountedtonearly15,000unitsin2014.Salesareexpectedtogrowatacompoundedannualgrowthrateof19.6%overtheperiod2015-2020.Attheendof2015,Chinaalonewasexpectedtooperateapproximately500,000plug-inhybridelectricandpure-electricvehicles.NearertoCanada,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofTransportationhasannouncedaninvestmentof$24.9million(USD)forthedevelopmentofzero-emissionbuses.Alargeshareofthisincentivewillfuelthedevelopmentofimprovedbatteries.
FuelcellbusesarewellknowninCanadaastwooftheworldleadingmanufacturersofhydrogenfuelcellsarelocatedinthecountry:BallardPowerSystems(inBritishColumbia)andHydrogenics(inOntario).Morethan2,000organizationsthroughouttheworldareactivelyinvolvedinfuelcelldevelopment.Busmanufacturers,suchasDaimler,areworkingonmakingthesehydrogen-poweredvehiclesmoreaffordablebutthecomplexityofhandlingthesevehicleshaskeptmosttransitpropertiesawayfromthemtodate.Withtherapidprogressbeingachievedinbatterychemistry(improvementsinefficiencyandcost),mostexpertsagreethatitwillbechallengingforhydrogenfuelcellbusestocatchuptobatteryelectricbuses.
ThekeytoawideracceptanceofEVsingeneral,andbattery-powerede-busesinparticularisbatterycostandperformance.Severalbatterymanufacturers,includingBoschandBYD,arepredictingthecapacityofbatteriescurrentlybeingdevelopedwilldoublewithin18to48months(dependingonthesource).ReputablefinancialanalystsprojectthecostofbatterieswilldropfromtheircurrentUS$350/kWhtolessthan$120/kWhonaverageby2030.
Therearetwofamiliesofbatterychargingsystems,bothofferingtrickleandrapidchargingoptions:
• Conductive• Inductive
Conductionchargingimpliesaphysicalcontactbetweenthechargingsystemandthebattery.Chargersareeitherinstalledattransitfacilitiessuchasbusbarnsortransitcentres.Inductivechargingallowsforelectricitytomovetoabatterywithoutphysical
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contact.Inductivechargingplatesareusuallylocatedatgroundlevel.Thesecanbelocatedatbusdepots,busstopsandtransitcentres.Theinductivesystem'smainadvantageisthatitiseasierforoperatorstoparkoveraplatethantolineupthebuspreciselyunderpantographs.
1.4 Thebusinesscasefore-busesinEdmontonMARCONcalculatedtheeconomicimpactofshiftingfromdieseltoelectricbusesusingtheirproprietarylifecyclecostforecastingmodel(TLCBu$TM)andperformedacomparativeanalysisofdieselandelectricbusesrelativetocapitalcosts,facilityupgrades(electricalcapacityandother)costs,andoperationalcostsincludingthecostofelectricityandfuel,maintenanceandothercosts.Giventheearlystageoftheelectricbusindustry,thelackofcertaintyrelatedtofuelandenergycosts,andtheshortamountoftimethebuseswereinfieldtrialinEdmonton,theaccuracyofthebusinesscaseislimitedto±25%.
ETSandtheFleetServicesbranchoftheCityofEdmontonprovidedMARCONwithalltheinformationrequestedtoestablishareferencecasebasedonthelatestmodelof40’dieselbusesinthefleet(Xcelsior2013model).Wheneverpossible,datafromEdmonton’sfieldtestwithe-buseswasusedbut,giventheshortdurationofthetest,missingdatawassubstitutedby:
• theresultsofevaluationsconductedinothermunicipalities,and/or• Altoonatestresults,and/or• MARCONteammembers’experiencewithotherelectricbuses,
inordertobuildacostforecastingmodelreflectiveofEdmonton’sownoperatingcharacteristics.
TheSteeringCommitteedirectedMARCONtoundertakeits“calculationsonthefeasibilityof40buses,withdetailsabouthowthestudyarrivedattheconclusionthatcouldbeextrapolatedtosupportdecisionmaking”.MARCONwasnotrequiredtodeterminetheoptimalsizeofanelectricbusfleetinEdmontonwithinthescopeofthisstudy.TheCityshouldbeawarethatMARCON’sconclusions,whicharebasedoncalculationsforafleetof40buses,maynotapplytoasmallerprocurementofbuses.
TheinvestmentrequiredbytheCitywasestimatedonthebasisofthepricesprovidedbymanufacturersforbusesandchargingstations.ThecostofadaptingtheNETGtoe-busrequirementswasprovidedbyanarchitectfirm(MorrisonHershfield)andthecostofen-routechargingstationswasbasedontherecentexperienceatWinnipegTransitCorporation.
TheoperatingcostsfordieselbuseswereprovidedbyETSbasedonitsexperiencewiththenewestbusesintheirfleet.MARCONevaluatedthedetailedcostsofoperationsfore-busesusingtheexperienceoritsteammemberswithelectricvehiclesandtheinformationprovidedbyothertransitproperties.Maintenance,training,tooling,andfacilityupgradecostswereevaluatedbyMARCONaswell.
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Thecurrent(contractual)pricesofdieselfuelandelectricitywereprovidedbytheCityand,attherequestoftheCity,werepeggedatcurrentlevels.TheannouncedProvincial“CarbonLevy”ontransportationfuelwasfactoredinMARCON’scalculationsandtherefore,thelevyondieselfuelwassetatthe2018rateof8.03¢/litreastheprocurementprocessforthevehiclesandtheconstructionofthenewgaragefacilityisunlikelytoresultine-busesbeingputinservicemuchbeforeJanuary2018.Asforthepriceofdiesel,thecostofthelevywaskeptconstantforthe20yearsofthebuses’life.Therewasnocarbontaxaddedtothecostofelectricityasitisalreadybuiltintotheprice.
AllcostswereenteredinTLCBu$TMtoarriveatthecomparativelifecyclecostsforthediesel,trickle-chargedandfast-chargede-buses.
Thereferencebasecaseforthelifecyclecostof40standarddieselbusesovera20-yearlifeusedinregularservicefor989,000kilometreswasdeterminedtobeaNetPresentValue(NPV)of$69.6millionincurrent(nominal)dollars2.
Table1.1Comparativelifecyclecostofdieselande-bustechnologies(NetPresentValuein2016dollars)
Costelementsforafleetof40buses Dieselbuses
Trickle-chargede-buses
En-routechargede-buses
CapitalInvestmentCosts Busacquisition&rebuild(40units) $28075180 $45865569 $57281973BuildingandInfrastructurecost Nonerequired $750000 $1154992Chargingstationscosts Nonerequired Includedwithbus $6767923Othersoft,nonrecurringcosts Nonerequired $119843 $126822
Capitalexpensestotal $28075180 $46861434 $65331710OperatingCosts Maintenance&ServiceCosts $26201313 $18260531 $18064388Charging/Fuellingequipmentmaintenance Negligible $66899 $1131926Fuel&ElectricityCost $14015707 $4831981 $5310479CarbonLevy $1303976 $21496 $21496
OperatingExpensestotal $41520996 $23159937 $24528289TotalNPVLifecycleCost $69596176 $69916319 $89859999%differencewithdieselbuses - +0.46% +29.12%
Source:MARCON,2016.
Theestimatedlifecyclecostof40trickle-chargedelectricbusesinEdmontononanidenticaldutycycle(foratotalof989,000km)willcost44%lessinoperations,mainlyduetolowerfuelandmaintenancecosts.Butthepriceoftrickle-chargedbusesandoftheirchargingstationsrequirecapitalinvestments67%greaterthanthatofdieselbuses,therebyoffsettingtheoperatingcostadvantagesofthee-bus.TheresultingNPVlifecyclecostof40trickle-chargedelectricbusesis$70million,thesameasthecostofrunningdieselbuses.
2 MARCONdidnottakeinflationintoconsiderationforitscalculationsbutdiscountedthefuturecashflowtoobtainanetpresentvalue.
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ThelevelofprecisionrequiredfromMARCONforthisforecastbeing±25%,theoverallcostdifferencefallswellwithinthemarginoferrorandMARCONcanthereforestatethatthereisnosubstantialadditionalcostassociatedwiththeuseoftrickle-chargede-busesintheETSfleet.TheconservativeapproachMARCONhastakentostudythebusinesscaseindicatesthatifamoreaccurateassessmentwereundertaken,itwouldlikelyrevealthatoperatingtheseelectricbuseswouldprovidetheCitywithsubstantialsavings.
Figure1.1Cumulativecostsofdieselande-buses(Inthousandofconstantdollars)
Thelifecyclecostofsubstitutingdieselbusesbyen-routechargede-busesamountsto$95.6millionor,innetpresentvalue,$89.9million,thisis29.1%morethandieselbuses.Thisexceedsthemarginoferrorandindicatesthatasignificantincreaseintheoperatingcostwouldoccurifen-routechargedbuseswereselected.
Therearehoweverseveralopportunitiestoreducethecostofusinge-buses.First,usinginnovativecontractualtermsregardingthee-buses’energystoragesystemcanmitigatetheirhigherpurchaseprice.Reducingtheinitialcashoutlayrequisitefortheirpurchasebyrentingorleasingbatterypackswouldgenerateattractivesavings.Usingthisstrategywouldspreadthecashflowrequirementsoveralongperiodoftime(possiblythelifeofthebus),therebymatchingtheadditionalcapitalcostassociatedwithe-buseswiththesavingsfromlowerenergycosts.
Anotherwayofgeneratingsavingswithelectricbusesconsistsinfavouringtheminthedailyallocationofblocksinsuchawayastoincreasethedistancethee-buseswillcovereachyearfortheirentirelife.Themoredistanceane-buscovers,thegreaterthesavings.Thisisduetothehighercostofoperationsofdieselbuses($1.05/km)comparedtothatoftrickle-chargede-buses($0.59/km)andofen-routechargede-buses($0.62).
Thecalculationspresentedinthisreportarebasedonseveralveryconservativehypotheses.Forexample,thepriceofdieselfuelisheldatcurrentcontractuallevelsforthenext20years,whichishighlyunlikelytohappen.Althoughthepriceofelectricitywillalsorise,petroleumproductspricesexperiencemuchgreatervariationsand,theprice
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currentlypaidbytheCityresultsformthefavourablemarketconditionsthatareunlikelytoholdforthenext20years.
1.5 RecommendationsAtpresent,theeconomicbenefitsofadoptingelectricbusesconservativelycalculatedbyMARCONareslim.Withtime,thesebenefitswillmostlikelyincreaseandyieldinterestingsavings.Theenvironmentalbenefitsassociatedwithe-buseswillalsomakethemmoreattractiveinthefuture.Therearesomerisksassociatedwiththeintroductionofe-busestotheETSfleet,buttheseriskscanbemitigated.
Thetechnologyassociatedwithe-busesiscontinuouslyimproving.FourNorthAmericanmanufacturerswillhavetransitproductsofvariousconfigurationscommerciallyavailableforCanadiantransitfleetswithinthenextyear:NewFlyerIndustries,BYD,NovaBusandProterra.Whileelectricbustechnologyisnotasmatureastheincumbentdieseltechnology,therebypresentingsomerisks,thereisagrowingconsensusintheindustrythatelectricvehicles,includingbuses,willlikelydominatethemarketoverthecomingdecades.InthatcontextandwiththeresultsofthefieldtrialsconductedinEdmonton,MARCONrecommendsthatETSprocurese-busesandaddsthemtotheservicefleetinordertodevelopinternalexpertiseandfamiliaritywiththisbustechnology.
Priortoprocuringe-buses,MARCONfurtherrecommendsthatETSstaffdevelopperformancespecificationsassoonaspossible.Thesespecificationsshouldincludedieselheatersforspaceheatingonboardeachbusinordertoprovidemorecertaintyineffectiverangeforserviceplanning.Giventheamountandnatureofthepreparatoryworkrequiredtoprocurethesebusesandintegratetheminthefleet,entryinserviceinlate2017,orearly2018isreasonablyachievable.
Thefirste-busespurchasedshouldallbelocatedinasinglegaragedesignedormodifiedtoaccommodatethem.Thespecificrequirementsforspaceandequipmentwithinthatfacilityshouldbedeterminedusingafunctionalanalysisbutmustincludeconsiderationspertainingtothesizeofthebackupgeneratorandtheclearanceofthebuswash.Otheritemssuchasthepossibilityofusingcogenerationand/orsolararrayswouldfurtherimprovetheirenvironmentalperformance.
Athoroughevaluationofserviceblocksmustbeundertakeninparallelwiththeprocurementprocesstoidentifywhatchangeswouldoptimizetheuseofe-busesand,therefore,theeconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsofthetechnology.Thegoalwillbetoassignthesebusestothelongestblockstheycanpossiblyhandleinordertoreducetheirfixedcostperkilometre.
MARCONfurtherrecommendsthat:• acomprehensiveengineeringandmaintenancefleetmonitoringprogrambe
designedpriortoanyelectricbusfleetprocurementtoensureprocessesaredevelopedthatwillcapturechangesrequiredtothecurrentmaintenance,servicingandsupportsystemstoensurethesuccessoftheintroductionoftheelectricbusfleet;
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• acomprehensivereviewofallserviceplanningbeundertakentoensurethatserviceblocksareoptimizedforuseoftheelectricbusfleettoachievethebestenvironmental,economicandsystembenefits;and,
• ETSworkwiththesuccessfulbusmanufacturerandapotentialthirdpartytechnicaltraininginstitutiontodevelopthenecessarytrainingpackagestoensureallstaffinvolvedwithoperatingtheelectricbusfleetreceivescomprehensivetrainingpriortocommissioningthenewbuses.
IftheCityintendstoexpandthesizeoftheelectricbusfleetafterafewyears,itisstronglyrecommendedthatathoroughanalysisofthechargingandfacilityupgraderequirementsbecarriedoutforeachtransitgarageintheETSsystem.Thisshouldbeundertakeninparallelwiththeintroductionoftheinitialfleetofe-buses,andthefacilitydevelopmentplanforalltheoperatingfacilities.Thiswillensurethatthepowerrequirementscanbemetandcapitalinvestmentneedsidentifiedinadvanceofanypurchasesofe-buses.
ItisalsorecommendedthatETScontinuetomonitorothertrialsbeingconductedwithe-busesattransitpropertiesinNorthAmericaandinvestigatesourcesofsubsidiesforprocurementofcleantechnologiesthatmaybeavailablefromFederalandProvincialgovernments.
Thereareanumberofactivitiesthatfollow:• TheCitymustdecidewhetheritwillproceedwiththeacquisitionofe-busesor
not;ifso,itmustalsodecidewhensuchapurchasemusttakeplacekeepinginmindtheleadtimerequiredfordelivery.
• ETSmustresolvehowthee-buseswillbeusedinthefleetandhenceforthdeterminewhatperformancethee-busesareexpectedtoachieve.
• Ideallypriorto,butpossiblyconcurrentlywiththeprocurementprocess,ETSmustdefine:
o Theroutesthee-buseswillserviceo Howtheblockassigningprocesswillbemodifiedtooptimisetheiruseo Whattheirspaceassignmentwillbeintheassignedgarageo Howserviceandmaintenanceprocedureswillbeadaptedtoe-buses
• ETSmustthendevelopdetailedspecificationsfortheprocurementofe-busesthatarecompatiblewiththewayETSintendstooperatethemindependentlyfromthosecurrentlypromotedbybusmanufacturers
• TheCitymustthenengageintheprocurementprocessinawaythatmightbedifferentfromitsusualpracticesasnegotiationswithoneorseveralsupplierswillingtoadapttheirvehiclestoETS’specificationswillbethebestwaytoprocurevehiclesthatwillmeettheCity’sexpectations.Thelowestbiddermaynotbethebestsupplier,asthelifecyclecostoftheprocurementshoulddictatethechoiceofsupplier.
• AninternalandexternalcommunicationsstrategymustbecraftedtoillicitmaximumcollaborationfromallCitystaffandtoinstilprideintheorganisationonthepartofallEdmontoncitizensandstaffmembers.
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2 Descriptionofmandate
2.1 ObjectivesofthisstudyTheprimaryobjectiveofthestudywastoexaminetheimpactofadoptingelectricbusesintheEdmontonTransitSystemasfollows:
a. Economic:analyzetheeconomicimpactofshiftingtoelectricbusesusingMARCON'sproprietarylifecyclecostforecastingmodel,comparingdieselandelectricbusesoncapitalcosts,facilityupgrades(electricalcapacityandother),andoperationalcostsincludingthecostofelectricity,fuel,maintenanceandothercosts;
b. Environment:assesstheenvironmentalimpactoftheadoptionofelectricbuses;c. Externalities:evaluatetheexternalimpactsontheCity,itscitizensandthepowergrid;d. ETSStaff:assesstheimpactsofadoptingelectricbusesonETSstaff;e. CustomerPerceptions:evaluatecustomerperceptions;f. Reliability:evaluatethereliabilityofthebuses;and,g. RecommendationsonthefeasibilityandapproachforadoptingelectricbusesintheETS
fleet.
2.2 MethodologyTwoelectricbusesfromtwomanufacturerswereevaluatedduringtheperiod7January2016to5February2016-onefromBYDandtheotherfromNewFlyerIndustries.AsecondBYDbuswithelectricheaterarrivedinlateJanuaryandwasrunafter5February.
MARCONusedacomprehensiveandflexiblemodularapproachtoundertaketheevaluation.Studymodulesreflectingtheobjectiveslistedabovewereestablishedandcanbeusedasindependentdocuments.AllmodulesarehoweverinterlinkedinordertomaximizeefficiencyandprovideacompletepictureofallthefacetsofintroducingelectricbusesintoserviceinEdmonton.Whileconsideringallsourcesofinformationavailable,eachsourcewasassessedindependently,verified,characterizedandweightedinthefinalanalysis.Informationsourcesincluded,amongothers:
a. RedRiverCollegeandWinnipegTransitb. BCTransitc. Sociétédel'Outaouais(STO)inconjunctionwiththeSociétédegestionetd'acquisitionde
véhiculesdetransport(AVT)andtheSociétédetransportdeMontréal(STM)d. PennsylvaniaTransportationInstitute(Altoona)e. NationalResearchEnergyLaboratories(NREL),FTAandtheUSDepartmentofEnergy
(DOE)f. OCTranspo,SociétédetransportdeLaval(STL)andotherpastclientsatMARCONg. ChicagoTransitAuthority(CTA)andCaliforniaAirResourceBoard(CARB)h. Busmanufacturers
TheeconomicanalysiswasperformedbyMARCONusingdataprovidedbyETSfromtwosources:thefieldtrialsandETS’historicalcosts.Thiseconomicdatawasreviewedinconjunctionwithinformationgainedfromothermunicipalitiesandagenciesthathaveevaluatedelectricbuses,asidentifiedabove,toassessandconfirmperformanceandoperationalimplicationsthatwerethenbuiltintothecostforecastingmodel.
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TheenvironmentalanalysiscomparedtheGreenHouseGas(GHG)emissionsproducedbynewer(2013)dieselbusesagainsttheGHGemissionsassociatedwiththeproductionofelectricitycurrentlyusedbytheCityofEdmonton,electricitythatwouldeventuallypowertheelectricbuses.ResearchwasconductedtodeterminethecurrentgridimplicationsandprojectthefutureblendedgridintensityofAlberta'spowergeneration.
TodeterminetheexternalimpactsontheCity,itscitizensandpowergrid,researchandworkwasundertakenwithrelevantpartnerstoassessimpactsoutsideofmunicipaloperatingcostsandenvironmentalimpactsthatcanbeprojectedtooccurifelectricbusesareadopted.
EngagementwithOperationsandMaintenancestaffwasdonethroughdiscussions,focusgroups,andsurveystoassessoperationalimpactsassociatedwithintroducingelectricbusesandtheirperceptionsofdoingso.Similarly,aconsultationbysurveywasundertakenwithcustomerstoobtainacomparativeassessmentoftheirperceptionsofelectricbusescomparedtodieselbuses,andtomeasuretheirpropensitytoadoptsuchatechnology,evenatapremiumprice.
Thedatacollectedduringthefieldtrialwasanalysedtoassessthereliabilityofelectricbustechnologyandtoidentifymaintenanceissues.
2.3 LimitationsofthisreportOperatingdata,driverandcustomerfeedbackwasobtainedinEdmontonovertheevaluationperiod.Theevaluationpresentslimitationsresultingfrom:
• Theshortonemonthperiodofdatacollection;• Havingonlytwoofthethreecommercialmanufacturersrepresentedonthesetests;and,• Havingonlyoneoftheonlytwomanufacturers’busavailableforthesameperiod.
Consequently,informationonbusdurability,maintainability,andenergyefficienciescollectedduringthefieldtrialshadtobevalidatedusingmaterialfromothersourcesthathaveconductedevaluations.However,theperiodwhentheelectricbuseswereavailableforevaluationunderthesameoperatingenvironmentprovidedagoodbasisforcomparingdynamicperformance,driverandcustomerexperienceofthetechnologiesathand.
ThebusmodelsavailablefortheevaluationhavebeentestedthroughtheAltoonaBusTestCentreatthePennsylvaniaTransportationInstitute.Detailedtestreportsareavailableforeachofthebuses.TheBYDe-busisalsobeingevaluatedinserviceoveralongtermbytheSociétédetransportdel'Outaouais(STO)inconjunctionwiththeSociétédegestionetd'acquisitiondevéhiculesdetransport(AVT)andtheSociétédetransportdeMontréal(STM).Thisevaluationwaswellunderwayandproducedlargevolumesofinformation.TheNewFlyerelectricbusisbeingevaluatedinWinnipegandinChicago.TheBYDbushasalsobeenevaluatedinCalifornia.However,theoperatingenvironmentinthesouthernUnitedStatesisnotsimilartotheCityofEdmontoninwinterandsoinformationgainedfromthemwasinstructiveonly.
MuchoftheinformationavailablefromotherCanadianandUSevaluationsandtestingthathasbeen,orisbeing,doneontheelectricbusesofinterest,wasusedtoconfirmandvalidatethedatagainedduringthefieldtrialsinEdmonton.Ourapproach,therefore,wastonarrowthefield-testingtothoseareasforwhichcredibleinformationhadnotalreadybeenobtained.EnergyandfuelcostsinEdmonton,andlocalenvironmentalissueswerealsodeterminedtoarriveatthefulllifecyclecostingandenvironmentalimpactsoftheseelectricbuses.Inadditiontothetechnical
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portionoftheevaluation,buscomparativedynamicperformanceonselectedroutesinEdmontonundersimilarrouteandclimaticoperatingconditions,driverandmaintenancepersonnelimpressions,andcustomerfeedbackformedaportionofourevaluationprogram.Giventherelativelyshorttimeavailable,thisapproachprovidedamorethoroughanalysisofthenewelectricbustechnology.Thebudgetforthisassignmentdidnotallowforadetailedanalysisoftheinfrastructurerequirementstosupportafleetofelectricbuses,specificallyastohowtheproposednewNorthEastTransitGaragewouldneedtobemodified.AprovisionforpossiblefacilitymodificationsprovidedbyETSarchitectswasinsertedinthefinancialanalysis.
NoattemptwasmadetodefinetheimplicationsoftradestrainingonjobclassificationsatETS.Thestudyonlyidentifiesthetypesandestimatedcostsoftrainingthatwouldberequiredtooperateelectricbusesasitappliestooperators,maintenancepersonnelandtrainers.
AsrequestedbytheCity,theaccuracyofthisreportiswithin±25%.TheoneexceptiontothismarginoferroristheprovisionprovidedbytheCityofEdmontonforthecostofadaptingitsnewgaragefacilitytothepresenceofelectricbuses.TheestimatedmarginalcostofmodifyingthenewNorthEastgaragetoallowfortheservice,maintenanceandhousingof40electricbusesinthisfuturefacilitywasprovidedbyMorrisonHershfieldtoanaccuracyof±50%.
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3 Descriptionoffieldtrials
3.1 TheelectricbusesusedforwinterevaluationTherearecurrentlythreemanufacturersofbatteryelectricbusesinNorthAmericathatofferbusesthatareadvertisedas"commerciallyavailable":NewFlyerIndustriesofWinnipeg(MB),BYDofLancaster(CA)andProterraBusheadquarteredinBurlingame,CA.Thesebuseshaveareasonableamountofdemonstrationtime,and/orhaveactivesalesinNorthAmerica.Theyhavealsobeenthroughvariousstandardbustestingprotocolssuchastheindependent“Altoona”test,conductedatthePennsylvaniaTransportationInstitute3.Thesebuses,although“commerciallyavailable”willmostlikelyhavenumerouschangesandimprovementsgoingforward,asbatterybustechnologyisstillevolving.Thisprocessisnotuncommonasevendieselbusesarestillbeingimprovedtoday,albeitatalessfrequentratethanisexpectedfornewervehiclessuchasCNGandelectricbuses.
InSeptember2011,theU.S.DepartmentoftheEnvironment(DOE)publishedaTechnologyReadinessAcceptanceGuide4foradvancedtechnologybusesthatoutlinedninelevelsofreadiness.Thisguideline,shownbelow,indicatesthatmostbatteryelectricbuses(e-buses)availabletodayareatthe7or8levelofreadiness.Allmanufacturersofe-busesarecontinuouslyimprovingtheirproducts.
Figure3.1TechnologyReadinessAssessmentGuide-CommercializationProcess
Source:U.SDepartmentofEnergy,2015.
Manufacturersthatarecurrentlyofferinge-busesinclude:
• BYDisapubliclylistedcompanythatmadeitsinitialpublicoffering(IPO)inJuly2002.ItislistedonthemainboardoftheStockExchangeofHongKongLimited,withstockcode1211.HK.TheShenzhen-basedcompanymakesrechargeablebatteries,mobilephonecomponentsandsolarpanels.Itisbestknownasamanufacturerofelectriccarsandbuses,anditbroadlyidentifiesitselfasagreenenergyfirm.BYDisinternationallyfocused.ItownsanelectricbusplantinCalifornia,andithassoldortest-launchedelectricvehiclesinColombia,Laos,Thailand,Uruguay,theNetherlands,Belgium,Finland,andBritain.
3 See:(http://altoonabustest.psu.edu/buses/441)BYD;(http://altoonabustest.psu.edu/buses/458)NFI;(http://altoonabustest.psu.edu/buses/454)ProterraE40.
4 DOETechnologyReadinessAssessmentGuide,G143.3-4a,https://www.directives.doe.gov/directives/0413.3-EGuide-04a/view.
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BYDhasarobustbatterytechnology,andabuschassisthatisrapidlyimprovingtobettermatchNorthAmericanqualityandreliabilitystandards.TheyhavealreadycorrectedtheweaknessesidentifiedintheAltoonatestingoftheirprototype40’busandareworkingonseveralotherimprovementsfortheirnextgenerationofe-bus.Theirrange/chargestrategyistohavehigherbatterycapacity5forlongerrange,withhomebasecharging.Theirlatestproductssource68%ofcomponentsinNorthAmerica.BYDhasseveralthousandsofe-busesoperatinginChinaalongwithanumberofrecentsalesintheUSA.
• NewFlyerIndustries(NFI)isthelargestbusmanufacturerinNorthAmerica,withalonghistoryofinnovationandmeetingNorthAmericanbusqualityandstandardizationexpectations.Theirrange/chargestrategyistohavemediumbatterycapacityformediumrange,withen-route(overheadpantograph)chargingatdesignatedstations.Theycanalsosupplyane-buswithlargerbatterypacksforhome-basecharging.
• ProterraisaCaliforniabasedcompanyfocusedsolelyonbatteryelectricbuses.Itwasfoundedin2004withavisiontodesignandmanufactureworld-leading,advancedtechnologyheavy-dutyvehiclespoweredsolelybycleandomesticfuels.Therange/chargestrategyofProterraistohavesmallerbatterycapacityforshorterrange,withen-route(overheadpantograph)chargingatdesignatedstations.ETSwasunabletoobtainaProterratestbusforevaluationduringthetestperiod.
• NovaBusaVolvosubsidiary,basedinQuebec,isneartocompletingaprototypee-busfordemonstration.The100%electricNovaLFSeisbasedontheprovenheavy-dutyLFSplatformandintegrateselectricpropulsiontechnology.
• OtherEuropeanandAsianmanufacturershavebatterybuses,howevertheyarenotactivelymarketingbusesinCanada.Canada’ssmallmarketandTransportCanadaregulationsandotherlocalregulations,plusserviceandpartssupportmakesellingforeignbusesintoCanadaalargeundertaking.
TwoBYDandoneNewFlyer40-foote-buseswereobtainedbyETSforevaluationoverthewinterof2015/16.TwoNewFlyerXcelsiordieselbuses,#4880and#4881(modelyear2013)wereprovidedfromtheETSfleettoprovideacontrolbaselineforcomparisonpurposes.
5 SeelexiconinAppendix1formoreinformation.
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Table3.1TestBusDetails
Type
Bus# Make/Model Year
BatteryType/Engine HeatingType
CurbWeight(lbs)
PassengerCapacity
Estimatedkm
e-bu
ses
6011 BYD40 2014 LiFePO4324kWh
Diesel 32,187 70 250*
6012 BYD40 2014 LiFePO4324kWh
Electric 32,190 70 200*
6013 NFIXE40 2015 Li-IonNMC200kWh
Diesel/Electric 33,245 76 140*
Diesel 4880 NFIXD40 2013 CumminsISL Diesel 28,000 88 800
4881 NFIXD40 2013 CumminsISL Diesel 28,000 88 800Source:Manufacturers’estimates.
ItshouldbenotedfromtheabovetablethatthetwoBYDbuseswereearlygenerationmodelsandthatthey,aswellastheNewFlyere-bus,areheavierthanthetwoNewFlyerdieselcontrolbuses.Thisheavierweightandtheirrespectiveaxleratingsalsoreducethemaximumpassengercarryingcapacityofthee-buses.
ThetwoelectricbusestestedinEdmontonusedifferentLithiumIonbatterytechnology.BYDusesitsproprietaryLithiumIronPhosphate(LiFePO4)batteriesandNewFlyerusesLithium-nickel-manganese-cobaltbatteries(LiNMC).BothareLithiumIonbasedbatteries,butusedifferentchemistriesontheircathodes.Thediagrambelowshowsthegeneralflowwithinthesebatteries6:
Figure3.2LithiumIonBatteryFlow
Theelectrolytewithinthebatteriescontainslithiumions.Thereisnopurelithiumwithinthebatteriesmeaningthatthebatteriesarerelativelysafefromatoxicitypointofview.However,theLiFePO4batteriesusedbyBYDaremorestablethantheLiNMCbatteriesusedbyNewFlyer.The
6 Source-ArgonneNationalLaboratory,Argonne,Illinois
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formerisanintrinsicallysafermaterialthanthelatter.TheFe-P-ObondisstrongerthantheCo-Obond,sothatwhenabused,(short-circuited,overheated,etc.),theoxygenatomsaremuchhardertoremove7,therebyreducingtheriskofcombustion.Bothtypesofbatteryhavesimilarperformanceinprovidingpower,buttheLithiumIronPhosphatebatteriesareslowertorechargeandareexpectedtodeliveralongersystemlife8thanothertypesofLithiumbattery:18+years,comparedtoabouta12-yearlifefortheothers9,althoughbothtypesarewarrantedforonly12years.
3.2 DurationandtimingofthetrialsIdeally,allthreetest-buseswouldbeoperatingatthesametimetogetthebestavailablecomparabletestdata.However,duetothelimitedavailabilityofthedemonstrationbuses,manufacturer’sdelays,alongwithintegrationandcommissioningissues,notallthebusesoperatedatexactlythesametimes.Thissignificantlyreducedthewindowduringwhichtestdatacouldbecapturedundersimilarclimaticoperatingconditions.Carefullydesigningthetestroutesandcapturingoperatingdata,alongwithrouteandweatherfactors,allowedforreasonablecomparisonsbetweenthebusesandameaningfultestatETS.
Table3.2TestDuration
Bus# Make/Model FormalTestStart
FormalTestFinish
DistanceOperated
Notes
6011 BYD40dieselheat
7-Jan-2016 5-Feb-2016 3750 Shorteram/pmrouteswerechosentoallowcomparabledatatoNewFlyer.Somelongerweekendrunswereperformed.6013 NFIXE40 7-Jan-2016 5-Feb-2016 2834
4880 NFIXD40diesel
7-Jan-2016 5-Feb-2016 5082
4881 NFIXD40diesel
7-Jan-2016 5-Feb-2016 4464
Source:MARCON,2016.
Notes:
• ChargingstationproblemsatthebeginningoftheevaluationperiodthedistancerunbytheNFIe-buses.
• Dieselbusesoperatedmoreweekendsandlongerrunsatthestartofthetest.• 6011wasoperatedatETSfromNovember2015toJanuary7,2016,withoutformallycapturing
testdata.• BYDbus6012wasoriginallyintendedtobepartofthecomparativetest,butdidnotarriveat
ETSuntilJan28,andrequiredseveraldaysofcommissioningforETSservice.Itwasoperatingbeyondthescopeoftheagreedtestperiod,so6012detailedtestresultsarenotincludedinthisreport.However,rawdatafromtheextendedperiodwasreviewedanditwasfoundelectricheatersconsumeabout20%to25%moreenergyperkilometre-thisisconsistentwithfindingsatotherproperties.
7 http://www.houseofbatteries.com/articles.php?id=278 SeelexiconinAppendix1.9 Notethatinthebusinesscasecalculations,abatteryreplacementisplannedafter12yearsforbothtypesofbusesbecausethe
warrantyofbothmanufacturersonlyextendsto12years.
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3.3 DutycyclesofthebusesThetestprogramwasdesignedtoanswerseveralquestions,butonewaskey:Cane-busesperformonallroutesinwinterconditionsinEdmonton?
Inordertomaximizetheusefulnessofthetest,serviceblockswerechosenforeachtestroutethatcoveredbothmorningandafternoonpeakservice.Asmuchaswaspractical,thetestblocksalsooperatedonhighercapacityroutes,andthroughtherivervalleyupanddownhills.Thesetestroutesincludedserviceonweekdaysonly.Thetestbuseswereoperatedonsomeweekendsasoperatorandbusavailabilityallowed.
Table3.3TestRouteBook-outScenario
TypeofdayTypeofroute Extremecoldday
Slipperyroadsday
Snowyroadsday Total
Flat 3 3 3 9
Mildhills 5 5 5 15
Maximumslope 5 3 3 11
Total 13 11 11 35
Source:MARCON,2016.
Notes: • Theabovetableshowsthetypesofconditionsthebusesshouldhaverunforthetestperiods.• Theabovescenariowasgenerallymetbythefirsttwotestbuses(6011,6013)withfew
exceptionsduetounavailabilityofthebuses.• 6011ran45routes,6013ran36routes.• Therewere11snowydayswheretemperatureswerebelow-10oC.• Routeswerechosenthatmostlyranthroughtherivervalleys,toensurehillyterrainwas
encountered.• Otherthanbeingarelativelymildwinter,thebusesdidmeetorexceedtheoperating
scenario.
Table3.4SampleTestBook-outDetail
Route(Block)AssignmentsforEachTestBus(AM/PM) BYD NewFlyer NewFlyer
Week
Dates Dieselheat Electricheat Electricheat XD40 XD406011 6012 6013 4880 4881
1 Jan4-8 11204/712 704/711 12808/12817 914/11208 12806/713
2 Jan11-15 12806/713 11204/712 704/711 12808/12817 914/11208
3 Jan18-22 914/11208 12806/713 11204/712 704/711 12808/12817
4 Jan25-29 12808/12817 914/11208 12806/713 11204/712 704/711
5 Feb1-5 704/711 12808/12817 914/11208 12806/713 11204/712
Note:Inordertoaccomplishthetypeofoperatingconditions,andallowbuscomparisons,anam/pmrouterotationwasdesigned.Thisweeklyrotationallowedpracticalmatchingofoperator,buses,andbookoutprocedures,yetallowedreasonabletestcomparisondata.SpecialthankstotheOperationsManageratMitchellGaragewhoworkedwithMARCONtoreviewavailablerunsanddesignaworkabletestplan.
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3.4 ClimaticconditionsduringthetrialsTemperatureandsnowdatafortheevaluationperiodwererecordedfromEnvironmentCanadawebsite10.EdmontonBlatchfordwasthecloseststationtothebusoperatingroutes.Blatchforddoesnothavesnowdata,soinformationfromstationNAMAOlocatedapproximately15kilometresNorthofEdmontonwasusedtoindicatesnowdays.Twotemperatureswererecordedat0900and1700onweekdays,and0900onweekends.Thesetimescorrespondedapproximatelytothemiddleoftheselectedrouteruntimes.
Figure3.3TemperaturesandSnowDayChart
Note:Thebluelineindicatestemperaturesandtheredbars,snowdays.Source:MARCON,2016.
Edmontonexperiencedanunseasonablywarm2015-2016winter,andformostofthetestperiod.Colderdayswereexaminedcloselyandcomparedtowarmerdaysforenergyusedata.
10http://climate.weather.gc.ca/welcome_results_e.html?txtStationName=edmonton&optLimit=specDate&selRowPerPage=25&searchType=stnName&searchMethod=contains&Year=2015&Month=11&Day=6&timeframe=1
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
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3.5 DatacollectionduringthefieldtrialsInordertocollectandprovidedataforthisreport,effortsweretakentoreviewandunderstandtheEdmontonfleet,maintenanceandoperationsproceduresanddata,andworkmanagementinformationsystems.MeetingswereheldatEllerslieandMitchellgarages,andScotiaTowerofficesanddatawascollectedonMARCONdesignedformsandfromstandardreportsoffthemaintenancemanagementandfuelmanagementinformationsystems.Betweentheseforms,thedatasavedbythecomputersonthebusesandthedataavailableonthechargingstations,agoodsetofdatawasacquired.ThecooperationoftheMaintenance,OperationsandFleetmanagementteamsatthoselocationswasexcellent.
3.6 AvailabilityofthebusesduringtrialsTheelectrictestbuseshadgoodavailabilityduringthetrials.Table3.5wascompiledusingfifty(50)morning,afternoonandweekendsruns.
Table3.5AvailabilityDatafromJan7-Feb5
Bus #daysbusoperated
%daysondesignated
route
DriveSystemMaintenanceEvents
6011–BYD 45=90% 96% Anti-LockBrakingSystemproblems,12vbatterydraining
6013–NewFlyer 36=72% 90% Chargingstationproblems(nobusproblems)4880–2013Diesel 40=80% 80% None4881–2013Diesel 32=64% 86% Engine,brakes,HVACSource:MARCON,2016.
Notethatdieselbusesshowalowlevelofavailabilityduringthetestasearlyintheevaluationperiod,thetwodesignateddieselcontrolbuseswereinadvertentlybookedoutonotherroutes.
Theelectricbuseswerequitereliableandoperatedmostdaysatover90%availability.Problemswerecorrectedwithinareasonableamountoftime.Ascanbeexpectedwithanynon-routineoperation,effortwasrequiredtoensurethesebuseswereaprioritytooperate.ThisisconsistentwiththeexperienceatWinnipegTransit,FoothillsTransit,CA,andChicago.
Noelectricpropulsionsystemproblemsoccurredduringthefieldtrialsandallmaintenanceitemswererelatedtonon-propulsionsystemsduringthetestperiod.
3.7 ExtraordinaryeventsConsiderableeffortmustbeundertakentoconductatestonnewbustechnologies,andinvolvesmanyfacetsoftheorganization.Additionalstaffwithwell-definedrolesandtasksaswellasadditionaltimeisroutinelyrequiredfortestprograms.
Someoftheeventsworthyofmentionare:
• Facilities–installinghighcapacitypowercablesystemstothechargingstationswasexpensiveandtimeconsumingforstaff.Assomeoftheequipmentwasdeliveredbeforetheholidayseason,somechangestothehabitualvacationpolicyshouldhavebeenplannedtoensuretheequipmentwasinplaceandtestedpriortothebeginningofthetest.
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Failingthis,powerfortheNewFlyerChargingStationwasnotavailableforthechargingstationatthestartofthetest,soadieselgeneratorwasrentedforafewdays.AnupdatedsoftwareprogramtomanagethechargingwassentbyNFIandwasinstalledbyETSstafftoallowchargingofthebus.
• Servicing–TheBYDbusdidnotfitintothebuswashduetoitsheight,andhadtobewashedbyhand.
• Towing–towingadapterswerenotimmediatelyavailablesothatoneofthebuseshadtobeflattowed.
• Operatortrainingandfamiliarizationfortestbusesiscriticalandeffortsarerequiredinparticulartoensuresafeoperation.Onlyminimaltrainingoftwohourswasprovidedtooperatorspriortotheprogram,inmanycaseswithoutthebenefitofroadtrials.Oneofthemanufacturersdidnotadequatelyprepareitse-busesforwinteroperationsduetoanoversight.Consequently,wintertireswereinstalledbyETSbecausetheacceleration/decelerationofthebusmadeitslipwithregulartires-thisproblemwaslatercorrectedbyanadjustmenttothesoftwarecontrollingtheABSsystem.
• OperatorshadconcernswiththereducedvisibilityoutthecurbsidewindowoftheBYDbusduetothebatterypackinstalledthere.ThisdesignissuehassincebeencorrectedbyBYDonitslatestgenerationofbus.
3.8 AnalysisandSummaryoftrialsAnalysisofthetrialsfocusedonkeyattributesrelatedtoETSroutesandconditions,andparametersofimportancetoETS.TheevaluationperiodranfromJanuary7toFebruary5,2016.
3.8.1 Range,StateofCharge(SoC),EnergyUsage(totaltestaverage)
Operatingrange,andenergyusewereprimaryfactorsindeterminingbusoperatingstrategy,andcostanalysis.
DataCollectionMethodology:
• Distancedrivenforeachchargingcyclewastakenfromtwosources–odometerreadings,anddocumentedroutekilometresanddeadheadkilometres
• StateofCharge(inpercentage)wastakenfromthedashreadoutatthestartandendofeachchargingcycle.Theenergy(inkilowatt-hours)usedwascalculatedfromthebatterystoragecapacityreadings.Thisisanagreeduponmethodtotrackenergyuse.Someenergyusedatawasobtainedfromthechargingstationandusedtovalidatethecalculateddataforthoseincidentswherethedatasheetswerelost.
• Theestimatedrangetakesintoaccountthegapsandpossibleerrorsinthedataduetosomelostrecords,andtodifferentmeasuringmethods.
3:9
Table3.6EnergyConsumptionandRange
E-bu
s
BatteryStorage
(kWh)
Yield
(Km/%So
C)
Energy
Consum
ption
(kWh/km
)
Theo
retic
al
Rang
e(km)
Recommen
ded
Rang
e(km)
6011–BYD 324 2.40-2.89 1.04-1.25 259-311 220-2646013–NewFlyer 200 1.45-1.60 1.25-1.38 145-160 116-128
DieselB
us
FuelCap
acity
(litres)
Consum
ption
L/10
0km
Theo
retic
al
Rang
e(km)
Recommen
ded
Rang
e(km)
4880–2013Diesel 470 49 800 8004881–2013Diesel 470 45 800 800
Source:MARCON,2016.Notes:
BatteryStorage:RatedbatteryenergystoragecapacityYield:Batteryyieldexpressedinkilometersofrangeforevery1%ofenergystoredEnergyconsumption:BestandworstresultsobtainedduringfieldtrialsTheoreticalrange:Distanceane-buscancoveronasinglechargeusingitsfullbatterycapacityRecommendedrange:Manufacturesrecommendthattheire-busesheadbackforarechargewhen80%(NFI)to85%(BYD)oftotalbatterystorageenergyisdepleted11.
MARCON’sblockanalysisoftheWestwoodgarageinuseasofFebruary16th,2016(showninAppendix2)demonstratesthatwithanappropriatedeploymentofchargingstationsattransitcentres,en-routechargede-buseshavenolimitationsandcanservicealltheblocksoutofthatgarage.
Basedonthedepletionlimitsrecommendedbythemanufacturer,thetrickle-chargede-busesarelimitedtoamaximumrangeof220km.MARCON’sblockanalysisoftheWestwoodgarageestablishesthatonthatbasis,thesebusescanserviceapproximately80%ofallblocks.ThefollowingtableshowstheproportionofblocksservicedfromtheWestwoodgaragethatcanbeservicedbyatransitbusofvariousrangesononechargeorfuelreservoir.
Table3.7Busrangevs.BlockLength
WestwoodGarageBlocksRangeupto(km) %ofallblocks
150 67.7200 76.6250 86.3300 91.5
Source:MARCON,2016
11 Analarmsoundsat10%SoC.Below10%,thepowerwillveryquicklyde-rateuntilthebusiseffectivelyreducedto“creeptorque”onlybythetimeitreaches5%.Sowhileitispossibletogobelow10%,buswouldnotreallyachieveanyeffectivedriving.PerNewFlyere-maildated6April2016.
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Rangeandenergyusedatafromothersources
MARCONreviewedtheinformationavailableonothertestsconductedinNorthAmericainordertocomparetheirresultstothoseobtainedinEdmonton.
Table3.8EnergyUseDatafromOtherSources
Bus kWh/km EstimatedRangekm
Notes
BYD40’ 1.26
205 AltoonatestJune201412
BYD40’ 1.2–1.5 240 STOQuebec2014,noACandwithAC13BYD40’ 1.3 220 STMQuebec2014NewFlyer40’ 1.08–1.30 110-148 Altoonatest14NewFlyer40’ 1.45 100 Winnipeg–nopassengerssummer/winter
average15NewFlyer40' 1.83 140 Chicago(winteraverage)16Proterra35’ 1.08 AltoonatestApril201217Proterra35’ 1.34 FoothillsTransittest2014/1518Source:MARCON,2016.
3.8.2 TemperatureandEnergyUsage
ThefollowingchartsshowtheenergyusageatvariousoutdoortemperaturesasrecordedbyEnvironmentCanadaat0900hoursand1700hourseachday.Thesemomentsapproximatemorningandafternoonruntimes.Energyusewascalculatedusingthestateofchargedataandroutekilometres.MARCONobservednodirectcorrelationbetweenenergyusageandambientoutdoortemperature.
12 FederalTransitBusTest,BYDElectricBus,ReportLTI-BT-R1307,PennsylvaniaTransportationInstitute,PA,27June,201413 EvaluationReportBYD'sGreenCityElectricBus(STO&STM),Sociétédegestionetd'acquisitiondevéhiculesdetransport(AVT),
August201414 FederalTransitBusTest,NewFlyerElectricBusXE40,ReportLTI-BT-R1405,PennsylvaniaTransportationInstitute,PA,30July,201515 ManitobaBatteryElectricTransitBusFleetDevelopmentandDemonstrationReport,RedRiverCollege,Winnipeg,October27,
201516 ConversationwithCTAProjectManager,8January,201617 FederalTransitBusTest,ProterraBE-35,ReportPTI-BT-R1107,PennsylvaniaTransportationInstitute,PA,April,201218 FoothillsTransitBatteryElectricBusDemonstrationReport,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,GoldenCO,January2016
3:11
Figure3.4Temperaturevs.EnergyforBYDE-bus
Source:MARCON,2016.
Figure3.5Temperaturevs.EnergyUseforNFIE-bus
Source:MARCON,2016.
Tempat09:00,17:00 kWh/km
Tempat09:00,17:00 kWh/km
3:12
Figure3.13isofferedasademonstrationofhowlittleimpactoutdoorambienttemperaturehasontheenergyconsumptionofe-buses.Itshowsthestateofcharge(SoC)ofthebatterypackthroughoutthemorningrunofthesamebusonthesamerouteontwodifferentdays:onewithcoldandtheotherwithmuchmildertemperaturesonrecord.NoticethereislittledifferenceintheSoCplotgiventhe17oCdifferenceinambienttemperature.AreviewofdataforotherdayswhenthetemperaturewasbetweenthehighsandlowsinthechartconfirmedthisratherlineardepletionoftheSoC,irrespectiveoftheoutdoortemperature.ThisfindingiscorroboratedbytheSTOandSTMevaluations19.
Figure3.6Temperaturevs.StateofChargeBus#6013
Source:MARCON,2016.
Energyusageforbuspropulsionisnotaffectedbyoutdoor/ambienttemperaturetothesamedegreeasconsumerEVs.Severalreasonsexplainthis:
• Thebusesusedieselfiredheaters(consumercarsuseenergyfromthebattery).• Busesareparkedinaheatedbarnsobatteriesandbuscomponentsarewarmatstartof
route.• Thebatterycompartmentonboarde-busesisequippedwithatemperaturemanagement
systemthatmaintainsitstemperatureatanoptimallevelatalltimes.
19 EvaluationReportBYD'sGreenCityElectricBus(STO&STM),Sociétédegestionetd'acquisitiondevéhiculesdetransport(AVT),August2014.
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• Outsidedatasuggestadecreasein15-25%rangeifelectricheatersareused(outsidetemperaturedependent).DatareviewedfromBYDbus6012collectedafter5Feb16confirmsthisreductioninrangewhenelectricheatersareused.
ThisisgoodnewsforEdmontonbatterybusoperations.Rangecanbereliablycalculatedbasedonbatterystoragecapacity,ifdieselheatersareused.
3.8.3 RouteAnalysis
Ananalysiswasalsoperformedtocomparetheeffectoftemperatureontheroutedriven.Thefollowingchartsshowenergyusebyroute,andtheaveragetemperatureontheroutes.Whileonecanseethereisavariationinenergyusebyroute,thereisnodirectcorrelationbetweentemperatureandenergyuse.
Figure3.7EnergyUsebyRouteatTemperatureBus#6011
Source:MARCON,2016.
Tempat09:00,17:00 kWh/km
3:14
Figure3.8EnergyUsebyRouteatTemperatureBus#6013
Source:MARCON,2016.
Bycomparingthedatainfigures3.14and3.15,MARCONconcludesthatthereisvarianceinenergyuseonsimilarroutesandthattherefore,temperaturehaslittletonoeffectonenergyconsumption.Notethatroute106wasa180kmrunonaSaturday,lighterloadsandeasierrouteshowedlessenergyuse.(WestEdmontonMalltoUniversity)whileroute914isaheavymorningrush,withmanystops,slowerspeeds(SouthgatetoNAIT),whichexplainshigherenergyuse.
3.8.4 ImpactofSlopeonEnergyConsumption
SeveralETSroutescomprisesteephills.Asoneofthekeyobjectivesofthetestingprogramwastoestablishwhetherornote-busescouldbeusedinallEdmontonconditions,thetestprogramincludedrunsthatcoveredthemostchallenginghillsETSisrequiredtoclimb.
Discharge(andrecharge)ratesofbatterieshavebeenexaminedforETSroutesthatincludesteephillsandareillustratedinthefollowingfigures.
Tempat09:00,17:00 kWh/km
3:15
Figure3.9Bus#6013StateofChargeRoute7
Source:MARCON,2016.
NotethattheStateofChargedeclinesquitesteadilythroughoutthe68kmrun.51.2%atendofrun.Acloserlookatthedowntown,McDougallhill,SconaRoadhillportionofRoute7isshownbelow.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Kilometers
3.7
5.1
7.6
9.8
11.5
12.7
15.5
17.0
18.5
19.7
20.6
22.2
24.3
26.7
28.1
30.2
32.7
35.5
37.0
39.0
40.6
42.3
43.8
45.3
47.6
49.2
50.0
50.7
51.6
53.8
55.2
58.3
59.6
64.1
67.9
68.3
BUS6013StateofChargeRoute7
Jan18am-14deg
SOCJan18SeedetailofMcDougallhill
3:16
Figure3.10Bus#6013StateofChargeonHills-Route7
Source:MARCON,2016.
Dischargeonlevelroutetodowntownissteady.TheregenerationonMcDougallhillkeepsthebatteryatasteadystateofcharge.Infact,energyfromtheregenerativebrakingispoweringthesteering,fans,compressor,lighting,etc.ThereisthenafairlysteepdischargerateasthebusheadsupSconaRoadHill,consumingapproximately2%ofavailablebatterycapacity.
Thefollowingfigureshowsthereturnportionofthepreviousgraph.EnergyisobtainedfromregenerationwhilethebusheadsdownSconaRoadHill,andisdepletedgoingupMcDougallhill.Againapproximately2%ofavailablebatterycapacityisconsumedtoclimbMcDougallhill.
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
8910,0
10,3
10,6
10,9
11,2
11,4
11,5
11,6
11,8
12,0
12,1
12,4
12,6
12,8
12,9
13,1
13,4
14,0
15,1
16,0
16,2
16,3
16,4
16,6
16,7
17,0
17,1
17,5
17,7
BUS6013StateofChargeRoute7
Jan18am-14deg
SOCJan18
107Ave,116St
100St,101aAve
Scona,99St
McDougallHillmax9%grade SconaRoadHill
3:17
Figure3.11Bus#6013StateofChargeUphill
Source:MARCON,2016.
ThemapbelowshowsRoute7intheMcDougall-SconaRoadhillarea.
Figure3.12MapofRoute7
Source:Google,2016.
3:18
3.8.5 InteriorBusTemperatureAnalysis
Temperaturedataloggerswereinstalledinthetestbuses(6011&6013electric,and4880&4881diesel).Loggerswereattachedtotheundersideofdriver’sseat,middleseat,rearseat,andinsideanexteriorbodypanel.
Thechartbelowrecordstheaveragebusinteriortemperatureonacoldday,inthiscase-19oC.
Figure3.13InteriorBusTemperatureonColdDay
Source:MARCON,2016.
Theelectricbusesmaintainedtemperaturesabove15oCthroughouttheirruns.Itisunknownwhythedieselbus4880hadcoolerinteriortemperatures,probablyduetothethermostatsetting.
Thefollowingfiguresshowthesamerunforeachbus,withtheindividualtemperatureloggerdatatakenfromlocationsunderthedriver'sseat,underamiddleseatandunderarearseat.Theelectricbuseshadcomfortabletemperatures,althoughtherewasadifferenceintheinteriorlocationsduetoheatingairflow,andcoldairentering.Thelocationofthedataloggers(undertheseats)affectedthereadingsastheyreceivedcolddraftsfromdooropeningswhiletheheaterforcedairmainlyfromtheroofarea.
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Figure3.14DieselHeatedBus#6011*andDiesel&ElectricHeated#6013InteriorTemperature
Note:Bus6011wasfittedwithboth,anelectricandadieselspaceheatersSource:MARCON,2016.
Source:MARCON,2016.
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Figure3.15Bus#4881InteriorTemperature
Source:MARCON,2016.
Datawasalsoanalyzedforthefive-weektestperiod,andnosustainedcoldinteriortemperatureswererecorded.Inaddition,therewerenomaintenanceeventsorreportsrelatedtocoldinterior.
3.8.6 OtherPerformanceParameters
Otherperformanceparametersthatareofinterestinoperatingtransitbusesareinteriorandexteriornoiselevels,accelerationandbraking.WhilethesewerenotmeasuredduringtheETSevaluation,acomparisonwasobtainedfromtheAltoonatestingreports.Thesetestsareconductedunderverycontrolledconditions.TheresultsfortheNewFlyerdieselXD40,theBYDelectricandNewFlyerelectricXE40,areshowninthetablebelow.Noiselevelsaremeasuredwithallaccessorieson.
Table3.9OtherPerformanceParameters-Comparison
PerformanceParameter NFIXD40 BYD NFIXE40InteriorNoiseatIdle,dBa 54.9 47.2 46.5ExteriorNoiseatIdle,dBa 58.5 49.0 49.3ExteriorNoiseunderAccelerationto60km/h,dBa
69.3 68.3 69.3
Accelerationto50km/h,seconds 14.27 16.19 13.71BrakingDistancefrom50km/h,feet 66.78 65.41 67.96
Source:MARCON,2016 Ascanbeseen,theinteriornoiselevelfortheelectricbusesatidleisnoticeablylowerthanforthedieselbuses.However,underaccelerationthenoiselevelsarecomparable.TheaccelerationoftheNFIe-busismarginallyfasterthantheequivalentdieselandalmost2.5secondsfasterthanthe
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BYDbus.Howevertheaccelerationofboththeelectricbusesismuchsmootherandthereismuchmoretorquethanthedieselbusesavailableatlowerspeeds.Brakingdistancesarecomparable.
3.9 KeyfindingsTheelectricbusestestedinEdmonton’swintertrialsprovedtobereliable,operatingatover90%availability.Therewerenoproblemswiththeelectricpropulsionsystem(motorandbatteries).
Therearehoweversomemaintenance/designissueswiththeelectricbusesthatneededextraattentiontomaintainthishighavailabilityrate.Manufacturerstellusthattheywillneedtobeaddressedinproductionbuses.Forexample,earlygenerationsofBYDbuseswereequippedwithanawkwardbuschargingconnectordesign.Thisissuehassincebeenresolved.
Figure3.16NewLocationofBYDBusChargerReceptacle-FrontRightofBus
TheNFIconnectorisheavyandnormally,anoperatinggaragewouldbesuppliedwithaconnectorsupportthatwasnotavailablefortheETStestprogram.
Unfortunately,thetestprogramdurationwastooshorttogainenoughmaintenanceandreliabilitydatafordirectcomparisonofbatteryelectrictodiesel.
Findingsreenergyconsumption:
• ThekWh/kmandrangenumbersobtainedduringthetestprogramaresimilartootherrecenttestdataobtainedfromtheothersourcesidentifiedearlierandfallwellwithintherangesadvertisedbythemanufacturers.ThisvalidatestheEdmontontestingprotocolsashavingbeenreasonablyaccurate.
• MARCONobservedawideday-to-dayvariationinenergyuse.AlthoughthedataatMARCON’sdisposaldoesnotexplainthesedifferences,theyarenotuncommoninfield-testingconductedelsewhere,irrespectiveofthetechnologybeingtested.Thesevariancesareprobablyattributabletodrivinghabits,ascarefuldrivingusingsloweraccelerationandmorebrakingregenerationcanhaveadramaticpositiveeffectonenergyuse.However,thisvariationisnotuniquetoelectricbusesassimilarvariationsinenergyusecausedbydrivinghabitsarefoundforanyvehicle.
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• MARCONwasunabletoobservesignificantdifferencesinenergyusagebetweendryandsnowdaysastoomanyotherfactorsdefinetheimpactofthesnowonenergyconsumption.Nevertheless,Winnipeganecdotallyreportsupto15%moreenergyuseonheavysnowdayswith1-2”onroads.
• TheNFIbus(#6013)usedmoreenergythantheBYDbus(#6011)duringthetestingphase.TheNewFlyerhasa10kWsupplementaryelectricheaterthatmayaccountforsomemoreenergyuse.However,therearetoomanyvariablesinthetest(routes,passengerloads,drivinghabits,etc.)tomakeanywell-foundedcomparisonsonoverallenergyefficiencybetweenthebuses.Usingcontrolledtestingparametersandidenticalprotocols,theAltoonatestsofthesetwobusesrevealthattheBYDe-bususesslightlymoreenergyperkmthantheNewFlyerone(1.26kWh/kmcomparedto1.16kWh/km).
NewYorkMetropolitanTransitAuthorityevaluatedaBYDelectricbusbetween25August2013and25October2015.Duringthisevaluation1,481mileswereaccumulatedinrevenueserviceinheavytrafficandwithfullpassengerloads.Energyuseaveraged1.46kWh/km20onthedaysthebuswasinservice.TheoperatingconditionsinNYCweremoreseverethancanbeexpectedinEdmontonandexplainthehigherenergyusage.ThisobservationwasalsosupportedbySTOandSTMintheirevaluationthatdemonstratedenergyconsumptioncanvaryby15%dependingonthenumberofpassengersonboardthebuses21.
20 BYDandNewYorkMetropolitanTransitAuthoritypressreleasedated9January2014.21 EvaluationReport:BYD'sGreenCityElectricBus(STO&STM),Sociétédegestionetd'acquisitiondevéhiculesdetransport(AVT),
August2014.
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4 Customerperceptionsofthee-buses
Theperceptionsofcustomersconcerningelectricpropulsiontechnologyforbusesweremeasuredthroughtheuseofaself-administeredquestionnaire.Themethodologyandsurveyresultsarediscussedinthissectionofthereport.
4.1 MethodologyAsurveyofriderswasundertakento…
• Assessbususers’perceptionsofelectricbuses• Determinehowelectricbusfeaturesimpactthequalityandcomfortoftheride• DetermineifriderswouldlikeETStopurchaseelectricbuses• AscertainriderwillingnesstopaymoreforbusservicetoallowforETStopurchaseelectric
buses.
Socio-demographicinformationwascollected(age,employmentstatusandnumberofone-waytripspertypicalweek)todeterminepotentialstatisticallysignificantdifferencesbypopulationsegment.
Asurveyquestionnairewasprepared,testedonboardtheelectricbusesonJanuary11thandfinalizedfordistribution.
Figure4.1Ridersurveyquestionnaire
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HardcopiesofthequestionnaireweremadeavailabletoateamofETSpersonnel22thatwereresponsiblefor…
• Boardingtheelectricbuses;• Distributingthequestionnairestopassengersastheyboarded;• Collectingthecompletedquestionnairesfromdisembarkingpassengers.
ETSpersonnelweretaskedwithcompletingtheleft-handportionofthequestionnaireidentifying
• Themodelofelectricbus(BYDwithelectricheating,BYDwithdieselheatingorNewFlyer23);
• Thetimeofday(morningpeak,afternoonpeakorother)theridewasundertaken• Theroute24;• Thedate.
SurveydatawascollectedonweekdaysbetweenJanuary18thandFebruary5thinclusively.Thiswasacompletelyrandomsampling.
Intotal,2,825questionnaireswerecollectedfromETScustomers25ridingontheelectricbusesthatwerebeingtested.Theresultsofthesurveyarestatisticallysignificantataconfidencelevelof95%withamarginoferrorof±1.8.
4.2 E-busriderperceptions(asmeasuredduringtrials)
4.2.1 Busmodel
Ofthe2,825surveyscompleted,57%werebyridersontheNewFlyerelectricbuswhile41%werebyridersononeofthetwoBYDelectricbuses26.
4.2.2 NoticedadifferentdesignofETSbus
Overall,92%ofrespondentsnoticedthatthedesignofthebustheyboardedwasdifferentfromotherETSbuses.Thispercentagewashigheramongthoseagedunder30comparedtothoseaged31yearsorolder.
4.2.3 Respondentprofile
Ridersparticipatinginthesurveyprovidedsomeinformationaboutthemselvesthatallowsthereadertobetterunderstandtherespondentprofile:
• Thenumberofone-waytrips27inatypicalweek;• Theage;• Theemploymentstatus.
22 ETSpersonnelwereprovidedwithatrainingsessionpriortosurveystarttoensureuniformityinmethodology.Personneldistributingandcollectingcompletedquestionnairesweretoldnottoprovideinformationtorespondentsinordertominimizebias.Tominimizebias,ETSpersonnelwasalsoinstructedtostopapromotionalvideofromplayingontheNewFlyerelectricbus.
23 ETSpersonnelidentifiedonlyifthebuswasaBYDoraNewFlyer.NodistinctionwasmadebetweenthetwoBYDmodels.24 On79%ofthequestionnaires,routedatawasnotprovided.25 15yearsofageorolder.26 Onaminority(2%)ofself-administeredquestionnaires,ETSstaffdidnotidentifythebusmodel.27 “One-waytrips”includestransfers.
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Onaverage,theETScustomerssurveyedstatedthattheyundertakejustover9one-waytripsperweek.ThebreakdownispresentedinTable4.1.under“Relativeimportance”.
Withtheexceptionofthegroupthatdidnotprovideinformationregardingthenumberoftripsthytakeeachweek,over70%ofallreadersinallfrequencygroupsareinfavourofETSadoptinge-buses.
Table4.1Opinionofridersregardingthepurchaseofe-busesbyETS
# of trips Relative Importance Should ETS buy electric buses?
per week # of respondents % of total Yes No Don't know 1to5 718 25.4% 77.7% 5.7% 16.6%
6to9 374 13.2% 78.1% 2.9% 19.0%
10to15 1200 42.5% 81.0% 3.0% 16.0%
16to30 186 6.6% 83.3% 5.9% 10.8%
>30 21 0.7% 71.4% 9.5% 19.0%
Noanswer 326 11.5% 65.3% 6.4% 28.2%
Total 2825 100% 78.1% 4.3% 17.6%
Source:MARCON,2016
Theemploymentprofileofrespondentsindicatesastrongrepresentationofstudents(47%).Thislikelyreflectstheroutesselectedfortestingtheelectricbuses.Therestoftherespondentsarefull-timeemployees(37%),retired(3%)andunemployed(2%).
Table4.2Employmentstatusofrespondents
Source:MARCON,2016
4.2.4 InterestinETSbuyingelectricbuses
RidersparticipatinginthesurveywereaskedwhethertheywouldlikeETStopurchaseelectricbuses.Overall,78%ofrespondentswouldlikeETStopurchaseelectricbuses.Interestinbuyingelectricbusesissignificantlyhigheramongyoungeragegroups(15-22yearolds:81%,23-30yearolds:80%,31-59yearsolds:81%)thanamongthoseaged60andover(64%).Similarly,individualswhoarecategorizedasemployedandstudentsaremorefavourable28toETSpurchasingE-busesthanthosewhoareunemployedorretired(73%).
28 79%amongthosewhoareemployedfulltimeand81%amongstudents.
Multiple-response OverallEmployed full time 37%Employed part time 13%Unemployed 2%Retired 3%Student 47%Other 2%No answer 3%
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Figure4.2ShouldETSpurchaseelectricbuses?
Source:MARCON,2016
ThereisnostatisticallysignificantdifferenceininterestforETStopurchaseelectricbusesbyfrequencyoftravel29.
4.2.5 WillingnesstopaymoreforbusservicetoallowETStopurchaseelectricbuses
Overall,64%ofrespondentsindicatedawillingnesstopaymoreforbusservicetoallowETStopurchaseelectricbusesthatcostmorethantheirdieselcounterparts.
Figure4.3WillingnesstopaymoreforbusservicetoallowETStopurchaseelectricbuses
Source:MARCON,2016
OnlythoseindicatingthatETSshouldbuyelectricbusesweretargetedforafollowupquestionconcerningif,andhowmuchofanincreasetheywouldbewillingtopay.Despitethis,someofthosestatingnointerestforETStopurchaseE-busesansweredtheadditionalquestion,anddemonstratedsomeinterestinpayingextraforbusservicetoallowforETStoacquireelectricpropulsiontechnologybuses.Infact,25%ofthose“notinfavourofe-buses”wouldstillbewillingtopaymoretoridethem.
29 Numberofone-waytripsinatypicalweek.
Yes,%78%%
No,%4%%
Don't%know%/NA,%18%%
Yes,%63.5%%
No,%32.7%%
N/A,%3.8%%
Table4.3Willingnesstopaymorefore-buses
ETSshouldbuyE-buses Yes No Don'tknow
Yes 73.4% 13.1% 32.3%No 25.0% 82.8% 54.2%N/A 1.6% 4.1% 13.5%
Source:MARCON,2016
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Willingnesstopaymoreisalsohigher(73%)amongrespondentswhoarefavourabletowardsETSpurchasingelectricbusesthanamongtheircounterpartswhoarenotfavourabletowardsthepurchaseofE-buses(13%).
AsindicatedinTable4.4,willingnesstopaymoreforbusservicetoenableETStopurchaseelectricbusesdecreaseswithage(69%of15-22yearoldrespondents,66%of23-30yearoldrespondents,63%of31-59yearoldrespondentsand61%ofrespondentsaged60yearsorolder).
Table4.4Willingnesstopaymoreforbusservice(Overall,byinteresttobuyE-buses,byagecategory)
Agecategory 15-22 23-30 31-59 60+
Yes 69.2% 65.8% 62.8% 50.7%No 29.4% 33.0% 34.1% 43.3%N/A 1.5% 1.2% 3.1% 6.0%Source:MARCON,2016
AmongrespondentswhoindicateawillingnesstopaymoreforbusservicetoallowforETStopurchaseelectricbuses:
• 46%indicatedthattheywouldbewillingtopay5%more• 35%statedthattheywouldbewillingtopay10%more• 8%claimedthattheywouldbewillingtopay15%more• 7.5%statedthattheywouldbewillingtopay20%more
Thebreakdownbyagecategoryisprovidedinthefollowingtable.
TheaverageincreaseofthosefavourabletopayingmoretoallowETStopurchaseelectricbusesis8.8%.Nostatisticallysignificantdifferencesbyagecategory,byemploymentstatusorbyfrequencyofbususewereidentified.
Table4.5Willingnesstopaymoreforbusservicebysizeofincreasebyagecategory
Source:MARCON,2016
4.2.6 Evaluationofelectricbusexperienced
RespondentswereaskedtoevaluatetheelectricbustheyhadexperiencedcomparedwithotherETSbuseswithrespectto…
• Noise• Fumes• Smoothnessoftheride
%ofallrespondents
Age 15-22 23-30 31-59 60+5%more 46.3% 44.3% 49.0% 47.9% 38.2%10%more 35.4% 40.7% 33.2% 31.3% 36.8%15%more 7.9% 7.9% 8.0% 8.5% 3.9%20%more 7.5% 5.9% 8.0% 8.1% 11.8%Notsure 0.1% - 0.2% - 1.3%Noanswer 2.8% 1.2% 1.7% 4.1% 7.9%Averageincreaseinprice 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.4
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Respondentswereaskedtoprovidetheirevaluationsusingafive-pointscale:
Theweightingisameanstodevelopaveragesforstatisticalevaluationpurposes.
NoisecomparisonFromanoiseperspective,73%ofrespondentsevaluatedtheelectricbusasbeingbetter(43%)ormuchbetter(30%)thantheotherETSbusestheyarefamiliarwith.ThosewhorespondedthattheywouldlikeETStopurchaseelectricbuseshadamorefavourableevaluationofthenoiseofelectricbuses.Theremainder30(19%)consideredthenoiseleveltobeequivalenttothatofdieselbuses.
Table4.6Noisecomparison
Source:MARCON,2016
FumesOverall,73%ofrespondentsconsideredtheelectricbusasbeingbetter(38%)ormuchbetter(34%)thanotherETSbuseswithrespecttofumes.Again,respondentsindicatingthattheywouldlikeETStopurchaseelectricbusesratede-busesmorefavourablyonfumesthanrespondentswhostatedtheywouldnotlikeETStopurchaseelectricbuses.
Table4.7Fumescomparison
Source:MARCON,2016
SmoothnessofrideWhencomparingthesmoothnessofridebetweenelectricbusesandnon-electricETSbusestheyarefamiliarwith,66%ofrespondentsevaluatedtheelectricbusasbetter(40%)ormuchbetter(26%).Aswiththeprevioustwofeaturesevaluated,respondentswhostatedtheywouldlikeETStopurchaseelectricbusesratedsmoothnessoftheridehigher.
30 4%didnotprovideananswer.
Much%worse% Worse% Same% Be0er% Much%
be0er%
Weigh4ng% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
NOISE Much worse Worse Same Better Much better N/A Weighted average
Overall 0.7% 2.7% 19.1% 43.1% 30.1% 4.2% 75.9Yes 0.5% 2.1% 17.1% 43.8% 33.9% 2.7% 77.9No 5.7% 4.9% 34.4% 34.4% 16.4% 4.1% 63.2Bu
y E-
buse
s
statistically significantly higher than overall statistically significantly lower than overall
FUMES Much worse Worse Same Better Much better N/A Weighted average
Overall 0.5% 1.0% 16.6% 38.4% 34.3% 9.1% 78.9Yes 0.5% 0.7% 14.2% 39.3% 38.5% 6.8% 80.8No 1.6% 2.5% 28.7% 31.1% 20.5% 15.3% 69.7B
uy E
-bu
ses
statistically significantly higher than overall statistically significantly lower than overall
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Table4.8Smoothnessofridecomparison
Source:MARCON,2016
4.2.7 Temperatureevaluation
Respondentswerealsoaskedaboutthetemperatureonthebususingafive-pointscale:
Theweightingisameanstodevelopquantitativeaveragesforstatisticalevaluationpurposes.
Asindicatedinthefollowingtable,over80%ofrespondentsratedthetemperatureontheelectricbusesas“comfortable”,withanadditional13%statingthattheyfoundthetemperature“somewhatwarm”.Aswiththefeaturesevaluated(noise,fumesandridesmoothness),respondentsinterestedinhavingETSpurchaseelectricbusesratedthecomfortlevelhigherthantheircounterpartswhowouldnotlikethetransitsystemtopurchaseelectricbuses.
Table4.9Temperatureonbus
Source:MARCON,2016
4.3 Pre-trialperceptions(ETSresearch)InAugust2014,ETSStaffproducedareportentitled“StealthBusCustomerSurvey–InterimToplineReport”31.Accordingtothisdocument,thestudywas“conductedtogathercustomer’sinsightregardingtheircomfortandsomeotheraspectsofnewlydesignedStealthbus”32.Onpage4ofthedocument,thereaderunderstandsthatthe“Stealthbus”isanall-electric.
31 MARCONisinformedthatnoreportfollowedtheInterimToplineReport.ThisreportisthereforeconsideredtheStealthBusCustomerSurveyfinalreport.Resultsbasedon996completedsurveys.
32 “StealthBusCustomerSurvey–InterimToplineReport”,2014,page2.
SMOOTHNESS Much worse Worse Same Better Much better N/A Weighted average
Overall 1.0% 1.6% 24.8% 39.9% 25.7% 7.0% 73.6Yes 0.5% 0.9% 22.2% 42.4% 28.6% 5.4% 75.8No 4.1% 6.6% 45.9% 16.4% 18.0% 9.0% 60.4Bu
y E-
buse
s
statistically significantly higher than overall statistically significantly lower than overall
Much%too%cold%
Somewhat%cold%
Comfort2able%
Somewhat%warm%
Much%too%hot%
Weigh7ng% 0% 50% 100% 50% 0%
TEMPERATURE Much too cold
Somewhat cold Comfortable Somewhat
warmMuch too
hot N/A Weighted average
Overall 0.2% 2.8% 80.5% 13.4% 1.1% 2.0% 90.4Yes 0.2% 2.3% 82.5% 13.7% 0.7% 0.6% 91.1No 1.6% 4.1% 70.5% 15.6% 5.7% 2.5% 82.4B
uy E
-bu
ses
statistically significantly higher than overall statistically significantly lower than overall
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Theresultsofthis2014researcharesimilartotheresultsofthecustomerresearchundertakeninthecontextofthisstudywith94%ofrespondentsindicatingthatitisimportant(24%)orveryimportant(70%)tothemthatETSpursuegreentechnologythatismoreenvironmentallyfriendly.
Figure4.4ImportanceofGreenFocus33
Further,onallthefeaturestested(generalseatcomfort,seatlegroom,airconditioning,overallsmoothnessofride,mechanicalnoiseheardinsidethebus,mechanicalnoiseheardoutsidethebus),ETScustomersparticipatinginthesurveyratedtheelectricbussomewhatormuchbetterthanotherETSbuses.TheseresultsareconsistentwiththefavourablecustomerresultsgatheredinJanuary–February2016withrespecttonoise,fumes,smoothnessofrideandtemperaturecomfort.
33 “StealthBusCustomerSurvey–InterimToplineReport”,2014,page4.
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Figure4.5CustomerevaluationofelectricbusfeaturescomparedtootherETSbuses34
4.4 KeyfindingsTheresultsoftheMARCONsurveyarestatisticallysignificantatahighconfidencelevel(95%)withasmallmarginoferror(±1.8).With996respondents,the2014StealthBusCustomerSurveyisalsoaveryreliablesourceofinformation.
BothsurveyshavefoundthatEdmontonbusridersareveryfavourabletoe-buses.SomuchsothatalmosttwothirdsofthemwouldbewillingtopayapremiuminordertohelpETSacquirethem.E-busesareconsideredsuperioroneveryperformanceaspectevaluatedbycustomers.
34 “StealthBusCustomerSurvey–InterimToplineReport”,2014,page3.
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5 ETSandCityStaffperceptionsofthee-buses
MARCONundertookqualitativeresearchwiththestaff35thatcameintocontactwiththeelectricbusestrialled36.Followingisadiscussionoftheresearchmethodologyemployedaswellastheresultsoftheresearch.
5.1 MethodologyFocusgroupdiscussionswereundertakenwithbusoperators37preandposttheelectricbustrials.Inaddition,interviewswereundertakenwithmaintenanceandmechanicalstaffpreandposttrials.
Table5.1Preandposttrialqualitativeresearchwithstaff
Source:MARCON,2016
Fewstaffmembersparticipatedinboththepreandpostresearchactivitiesundertaken.
5.2 Pre-trialperceptionsofoperatorsandmaintenancestaffAtthetimeofthepre-trialinterviews(December2015),traininghadalreadybeenprovidedtostaffusingthe2ndgenerationBYDbus.TrainingfromNewFlyerpersonneltooperatorsandmaintenanceandmechanicalstaffwasexpectedtotakeplaceonJanuary4th2016.
5.2.1 Busoperators
MARCONaskedETStoinviteallbusdriversthatweretrainedtodrivetheelectricbusestoadiscussionintendedtoprovideinsightsregardingtheperceptionsthatoperatorshaveofE-busespriortodrivingtheminthecontextofregulartransitservice.
Withtheexceptionofoneoperator,alldrivers38participatinginthepre-trialgroupwereselectedbysuperiorstodrivetheelectricbuses.Consequently,theywerenotdrivingtheelectricbusesbecauseofapositivepredispositiontothem.
ParticipantsbelievedthatETSwasinterestedintestingelectricbusesinorder“tobeaheadofthegame”,“tocutfuelcosts”and“tobegreen”.AlltheparticipantsperceivedthetestingofthebusestobeagoodideaandseveralspontaneouslysuggestedthatdeployingelectricbuseswouldbepositivefortheimageofETS.
35 Interviewsandfocusgroupswereundertakenwiththedriversandmechanicalandmaintenancestaffthatwereinformedandmadetheefforttomeetwithresearchers.
36 Somemembersofthestaffcameintocontactwithoneofthethreemodelswhileotherscameintocontactwithallthree.37 Alldriversparticipatinginthepre-trialfocusgrouphadreceivedsometrainingontheelectricbusespriortothediscussion.38 Allindicatedbeingspareboardshift.
Pre-trial Post-trial
Bus operators 10 participants in focus group 5 participants in focus group
Mechanical, maintenance and service staff 4 people interviewed 5 people interviewed
5:2
Whenquestionedwhethertheyconsideredelectricbusestobereadytobeputinservice,participantsstatedthattheyarelikelyreadyforsummer-climateoperationbut,giventheirlackofexperiencewithdrivingthesebusesinwinterconditions,questionedwhethertheyarereadyforsuchconditions.TheparticipantsalsoquestionedwhetherthedurationofthetrialwouldbesufficientlylongtoenableETStogainatrueappreciationfortheabilityofelectricbusestomeetthewinterneedsofthetransitsystem.
Participantsalsostatedthattheyexpectedthedrivingexperiencewithelectricbusestobesuperiortothatofdrivingwithdiesels.Thereasonsprovided:
• Noisereduction• Reductioninpollution(nofumes)• Smootherride(includingexcellentbraking)• Availabilityofairconditioning• Morecomfortableseating
BasedonthetrainingprovidedontheBYDbus,participantsnotedcertaindesignfeaturesthatdidnotappealtothem.Mostofthesefeatureshadlittletodowiththefactthatthebusestestedwereelectric,withtheexceptionof…
• Lowerpassengercapacity,• LackofABS(notyetinstalled),• Regeneratingbrakesresultinginbusesslidinginsnow39,and• Significantnoiseatthebackofthebus(coolingfan).
Theparticipantsgenerallydidnotanticipatedifficultiesgettingaccustomedtoelectricbusesalthoughonedidmentionthatturningcornerswouldrequire“gettingusedto”.
Inthepre-trialdiscussion,participatingoperatorsgenerallywelcomedthechangeandstatedthattheyperceivedtheelectricbusestobebetterequippedthantheirdieselcounterparts.They,however,werenotcertainthatelectricbuses,despitebeingeasiertomaintain,wouldmakelifetimeeconomicsenseforETSgiventheirrelativelyhigheracquisitioncost.Oneoftheparticipantsexpressedseriousconcernwiththeirpurchasepriceandquestionedwhethercitizens,inaneconomicdownturn,wouldbewillingtopaymorefortransitaccessoracceptcutbacksinothermunicipalexpendituresallowingtheCitytoinvestinelectricbuses.
5.2.2 Mechanicalandmaintenancestaff40
PersonnelinterviewedpriortothetrialswereoftheopinionthatETSwastestingelectricbusesgiventheinterestofcitizensandEdmontonCityCouncilincleanervehiculartechnologies.Theyexpectedthetestswererequiredtoprovethe“viabilityandperformanceofthetechnologyinETS’sclimaticandoperatingconditions”.
Muchlikethebusoperators,themaintenanceandmechanicalstaffinterviewedconsideredthetrialperiodasextremelylimited.Inthelatter’sopinion,thebusesshouldbetestedforapproximatelyoneyeartogainabetterappreciationfortheircapabilitiesandpotentiallimitations.OneoftheissuesidentifiedearlyintheexperienceswiththeBYD2ndgenerationbusandsharedduringtheinterviewsisthebus’perceivedinabilitytodriveinwinterconditionswithoutwintertires.
39 ThiswasalsoreportedbyoperatorstothemaintenancestafffortheNFIbus.40 Servicestaffwasnotinterviewedduringpre-trialinterviews.
5:3
Askediftheyexpectedanydifferencesinmaintenancebetweentheelectricbusesandtheirstandarddieselcounterparts,personnelinterviewedexpectedapproximatelythesameamountofwork,althoughdifferentissuesgiventhedissimilaritiesintechnology.SomeofthemembersofthemechanicalandmaintenancestaffstatedthattheyhadreadtheAltoonaevaluationsoftheBYDbusandwerethereforeconcernedaboutthequalityofmanufacturing.ThegeneralperceptionofthemaintenancestaffinterviewedwasthattheBYDqualityispoor.Incontrast,personnelgenerallyviewedtheNewFlyerbusfavourably.Additionalchallengesexpectedbythemaintenanceandmechanicalstaffpriortotrials,particularlyinacontextwhereelectricbusesareintegratedintotheETSfleetincluded:
• Towing:“ETSisnotequippedtotowelectricbuses”,
• Lackofqualifiedpersonnel,
• Accesstosparepartsandprocurementlogisticsthatmayneedtobemodifiedtomeettheneedsofelectricbuses,
• Inabilitytofittheelectricbusesinthewashingarea,
• Lackofunderstandingofhowelectricbusesneedtobetreatedfromasafetyperspective,
• Busrange:“Canweget350kmrangeinthewinter?Ithasoperatingimplications.”
• Charginginfrastructure:thestaffquestionedwhetherthegaragescanbeequippedwiththecharginginfrastructurerequiredtochargetheelectricbuses
• Hoisttrainingwillberequiredtohandlethebatteries
AskediftheyconsideredthatETSshouldpurchaseelectricbuses,maintenanceandmechanicalpersonnelinterviewedbelieved“thetechnologymaybetenyearsout”andthatgiventheeconomicdownturn,questionedwhetherthetimingforpurchasingelectricbuseswasideal.
Inshort,contrarytooperators,maintenanceandservicepersonneldisplayedarathernegativeattitudetowardse-busesaheadofthefieldtrials.
5.3 Post-trialperceptionsofoperatorsandmaintenancestaff
5.3.1 Busoperators
Allbusoperatorsparticipatinginthepost-trialfocusgroupclaimedtohavedrivenboththeBYDandNFIe-buses,althoughtheexperiencesofsomewerepredominantlywithonemodelandconsequently,operators’commentswereverymodel-specific.
5:4
Table5.2PositiveandnegativeperceptionsofOperators41
Source:MARCON,2016
Busoperatorsparticipatinginthediscussionexpressedconcernabouttherangeoftheelectricbuses(“Werunthebuses14-16hoursperday.Weneedthejuicetocontinuedrivingthem.”)aswellastheeconomicsassociatedwithpurchasingandinstallingchargingstations.Further,theyindicatedthatthesilenceofelectricbuses(“youdon’thearthemcoming”)mayposeasafetyissueforpeoplewalkingintheirvicinity.
Askediftheadoptionofelectricbuseswillrequireanychangestooperations,busoperatorsofferedthethoughtsexpressedinTable5.3.
41 Busoperatorsmadeseveralcommentsregardingthedesignelementsofthebuses.Thesearenotreflectedinthetableastheyarenotspecifictotheperformanceofelectricpropulsionbuses.
Content reflects operator language BYD NEW FLYER
Perceived positives
Good acceleration
Smooth ride ("don't feel every pothole")
Quiet
Great heating
Good lighting
Good acceleration
Smooth ride ("don't feel every pothole")
Very quiet
Even better heating than BYD
Even better lighting than BYD ("blue lights reduce the glare on the windshield")
Perceived negatives
Sensitive braking
Difficulty accelerating uphill: "rolled 16 inches before accelerating"
Camera on the BYD looking outside is focused too low
On turns, bus tilts to one side
Rocking side to side
Skidding on ice
Antilock braking issues: "When I applied brake, the ABS grabbed and let go and then it skid"
Difficulty accelerating uphill ("the New Flyer performed better. If the load was lighter, the New Flyer climbed the hill with no problem")
On turns, bus tilts to one side
Door stays open while driving. Requires interlock
Rocking side to side due to battery weight on top of bus (greater than with BYD)
5:5
Table5.3Perceivedchangestooperationsrequiredtoenableadoptionofelectricbuses
Source:MARCON,2016
Despitetheissuesraised,theETSbusoperatorsthatparticipatedinthefocusgroupgenerallyfeltthatelectricbusesarereadytobeplacedinserviceaslongasthecharginginfrastructureisavailabletomeettheoperatingneedsofETS.Moreover,theystatedthatthepublic“isbecomingmoreenvironmentallyawareandETSshouldbesettingtheexample”.
BeforeelectricbusescanbeintegratedintheETSfleet,thedriversneedpropertrainingandeducation42.Theywouldliketoreceiveadriver’smanualdescribingthevehicle’scapabilities,itsspecifications,itshazards(ifany)aswellaswhattodoinemergencycircumstancesor“whensomethinggoeswrong”.
5.3.2 Mechanical,maintenanceandservicestaff
Generally,themechanical,maintenanceandservicestaffinterviewed,whichwereexposedtoallthreeelectricbusmodels,feltthattheywereillpreparedtoservicethemduringthefieldtrialseventhoughtheyreceivedsomemanufacturertraining.Thepersonnelinterviewedfeltthattheyexperienced“severalbumpsthatcouldhavebeeneliminated”hadtheyreceivedthemanualsandpropertraining:“wedidn’tevenhaveanycomputerprogramstocommunicatewiththebus”.Infact,thegeneralperceptionamongthoseinterviewedisthatwiththeappropriatetraining,mostoftheissuesandchallengesexperiencedwouldhavebeenremoved.However,bothBYDandNFIundertheirbususecontractswereresponsibleforallmaintenanceissuesotherthanrunningrepairs.
Ingeneral,themechanical,maintenanceandservicestaffinterviewedfeltagreaterleveloffamiliaritywiththeNewFlyerelectricbusgiventhesimilaritiesbetweenthisbusandtheNewFlyerdieselbusescurrentlyusedintheETSfleet.
42 Driversparticipatinginthefocusgroupfeltthattrainingreceivedwasinsufficient:“even30minutesontheroadwouldhavebeenuseful”,“wewereself-taught”,“toomanypeopleshowedupatthetrainingsessionandIwasintheback,unabletoseewhatwasbeingdemonstrated”).
Perceived changes required
Operating procedures
A change in scheduling may be required:"Currently, buses arrive at transit centers at the same time. If you have to charge the bus at these centers, we need to figure out how to charge at the same time or pace their arrivals."
Shift lengths Buses may be required to return to the garage after every shift.
Other
Depending on the range of the vehicles and the charging strategy implemented, drivers participating in the groups question whether more buses will be required to meet ETS's operational needs if the buses are electric.
5:6
Maintenanceandservicestaffinvolvedwiththefieldtrailsfeltthatalongertrialperiodisrequiredtotrulyevaluatetheelectricbuses:“Wehadthemforashortperiodsowehadminorissues.Wewouldneedmoretimeinordertoevaluatethemaintenanceandmechanicalsideofthebuses.Wewouldneedsomemajorfailurestoevaluatethem.Wenevergotintoanyoftheelectricalcomponents.”AtrialoftwoyearswassuggestedasarequiredperiodtoevaluatethetechnologyanditsviabilityforETS.Theindividualsinterviewedalsostatedthataperiodoftwoyearswouldberequiredforthemto“getusedtotheelectricbuses”.
Table5.4PositiveandnegativeperceptionsofM&SStaff
Source:MARCON,2016
Themechanical,maintenanceandservicestaffinterviewedquestionedthecost-effectivenessofelectricbuses:“Youneedtoconsiderpersonneltraining,mechanicalfailuresthatwouldmultiply.PlusIreadthattheframeofthe[BYD]buseshavefailed43.Inourweatherconditions,itwouldn’tlastlong”.Despitethesequestions,theyexpectthatitwouldbeeasierforthemtomaintainelectricbusesastheyhave“fewerparts,lessfluidssofewerleaks,componentsarelargerand
43 Intheabsenceofinformationandeducationfromthemanufacturers,severalmembersofmechanical,maintenanceandservicestaffinterviewedstatedthattheyundertookInternetresearchanddiscoveredtheAltoonareportwhereBYDelectricbusesreceivedunfavourableevaluations:“FromAltoonatestingresults,weunderstandthatwewouldhavemoreproblemswiththeBYDthanwiththeNewFlyer.Itwasscarylookingattheseresults.Majorcomponentsweresaidtobecomingoffthevehicle.ItdoesputdoubtsinyourmindregardingthequalityofBYD.”
Content reflects personnel language BYD NEW FLYER
Perceived positives
Relatively simple charging compared with New Flyer
Smoothness of ride
Good acceleration
Perceived as a superior product: "just the way it's put together"
Winter ready
Smoothness of ride
Good acceleration
Can fit through the washer
Perceived negatives
Sensitive acceleration
Perceived poor quality of manufacturing of the vehicle
Instability of performance in snow: "Even with the first layer of snow, it would dog track. It would slide from side to side."
Braking issues: "As soon as you hit break, you lost steering control."
Stability issues despite changing the tires
The bus has one extremely large windshield that is heated. ETS changes several windshields per week given that rocks hit them and create damage. Changing these windshields would prove extremely challenging.
Diesel heater on the 2nd generation bus defeats the purpose of having an electric bus as it produces raw pollutants.
Charging procedure is long with too many steps: "When they asked us to reprogram the charger, it took us 2-3 days before we got it to charge the buses"
Diesel heater on the 2nd generation bus defeats the purpose of having an electric bus as it produces raw pollutants.
5:7
probablyrebuildable”.Theyalsoexpectsavingsbecause“wewouldn’tbegoingthroughoillikecrazy”.
Moreover,theyraisedtheissuesofthechangesthatwouldhavetobeimplementediftheelectricbusesweredeployedatETS:
• Additionalspaceinthegarageswouldneedtobeallocatedtochargingstationsandthechargingarea.Consequently,thegarageswouldneedtomakephysicaladjustmentstoaccommodatethesebuses.
• Thewashrackwouldneedtobechanged,particularlyiftheBYDbusisused.• Giventhesilenceofthevehicles,theywouldneedtobeequippedwithanaudiblealarm
forthesafetyofgaragepersonnel.• Specialliftswouldberequiredtochangebatteriesorothercomponents.• SpecialequipmentorprocedureswouldberequiredtochangetheBYDwindshieldswhen
necessary.
5.4 KeyfindingsFromastaffperspective,integratingelectricbusesintotheETSfleetandoperationswillrequire…
• Relevanttrainingofbusoperationsandmechanical,maintenanceandservicestaff• Preparationofunionstoeliminatepotentialissuesrelatedtocompensationand
responsibilities• Busdesignthatreflectstheneedsofdriversandriders.
Adequatetrainingwillbekeytoensuringstaffbuy-inandasmootherintegrationofthenewtechnology.
Thestaffinterviewed,particularlythebusoperators,areconfidentthatwithsufficienttraining,“gettingaccustomedtothisnewtechnologywillbelikegettingaccustomedtoanynewbus”.
Generally,busoperatorsareverypositiveconcerningtheadoptionofe-busesinEdmontonastheyfeelitwouldbeanimprovementfortheirpassengersandforthemselves.Maintenanceandservicepersonnelsomewhatwarmeduptoe-busesinthecourseofthefieldtrials,butstillremainedcautiouswithregardstotheirintegrationinETS’fleet.
6:1
6 Expectedreliabilityofe-busesinservice
6.1 MethodologyElectricbuseshaveonlybeenoperatinginCanadaonatestbasisbutthereareafewlargerfleetsinoperationintheUSA,inAsia,andinEurope.FleetreliabilitystatisticscanbeusuallycomparedwithoutmajordatainvestigationsforNorthAmericanfleets.Othercountriesoftenuseddifferentmetricsthatrequiredetailedanalysisbeyondthescopeofthisreport(agenciessuchastheInternationalBusBenchmarkingGroupprovidesuchcomparisons).
InNorthAmerica,batteryelectricbusesarestillanemergingtechnology.Maintenanceandreliabilitydataavailabledoesnotusuallyoriginatefromastandardin-servicefleetoperatingenvironment,makingitdifficulttocomparee-busesperformancetothoseofstandarddieselorCNGbuses.FoothillsTransitandNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,however,haverecentlypublishedadetailedcomparativereport44thatevaluates35ftProterrabusesagainstacontrolfleetofCNGbuses;detailsofwhichwereusedaspartofthisanalysis.
TheSTL(Laval,QC)andtheWTC(Winnipeg,MB)have2busesinserviceeach45,buttheyarestillconsideredtestvehiclesandthereforereceive“specialtreatment”,whichmakesitunfairtocomparethemdirectlytotherestofthefleet.Butnevertheless,ETSbustestingandavarietyoftestreportsfromvarioussources(Transitproperties,Altoonatests,etc.)offerawealthofreliabilityinformation.Areviewofthesetestsandreportsandtheanalysisofthedifferencesbetweenstandarddieselbusesandelectricbusescanprovideareasonablemeasureandqualifiedcommentariesonthegeneralreliabilityofbatteryelectricbuses46.
Thismodulefocusesonthereliabilityofbatteryelectricbustechnology.DuringtheETStestprogram,therewereanumberofmaintenanceandoperatingproblemsnotdirectlyrelatedtobatterypropulsiontechnologyoritsaccessories;otherproblemsrelatedtothebrandofbus,orlackoftraining/servicesupportwerealsoobserved.ItmustbecautionedthatduringtheveryshorttestprogramatETS,thee-busesinusewereatvariousdevelopmentstages(fromadvancedprototypestoearlycommercialization).Someofthedowntimeofthebusesformaintenancepurposeswasattributabletotechnicianandoperatorunfamiliarityorunavailabilityofsomesparepartsforthevehicles.Inalargerin-servicefleet,significanteffortswouldbetakentospecifybusesindetail,arrangetrainingforoperators,serviceandmaintenancestaffs,andprovideservicesupport,partssupply,andwarrantyterms.
InadditiontotheveryshortevaluationperiodatETS,theplanningfortheevaluationwasdonetooquickly,resultinginbusesbeingmadeavailablethatdidnotrepresentthelatestgenerationsofbusesofferedbythemanufacturers.Theshortlead-timetoprocurebusesresultedinnotallowingmanufacturerssufficienttimetoreactresultinginonemanufacturernotbeingabletoprovideabusandanotherforonlyaveryshortperiodoftime.BothBYDbuseswereanearlygenerationbusanddidnotincludeallthedesignmodificationsthathadbeendoneasaresultofothertestinginCanada.Theshortlead-timeanddeliveryofthebusesovertheChristmasperiod
44 FoothillTransitBatteryElectricBusDemonstrationResults,LeslieEudy,RobertProhaska,KennethKelly,andMatthewPost,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,January2016.
45 TheSTLoperatesoneDesignLineandoneBYDbus.WTCoperatestwo(andsoonthree)NFIelectricExcelsiorbuses.46 Thereaderisremindedthatthisreport’slevelofprecisioniscontractuallylimitedto±25%.
6:2
alsoresultedininsufficienttrainingbeingmadeavailabletostaffeventhoughmanufacturershadthecapabilitytoprovidethetraining.
6.2 Reliabilityofe-busesinothersystems
6.2.1 BatteryElectricBusReliability,Canada
MARCONhasreviewedmanyaspectsofbusreliabilityfromnumeroussources.TheETStest,othertestliterature,communicationwithmanufacturersandbusproperties,fieldmeetings,personalbusmaintenanceandoperatingexperience,amongothers.Thisstudyhasfoundthatbatterye-busreliabilityisatanacceptablelevelforETSbusoperationsandmaintenance,beingatleastasreliableasdieselbuses.
However,therearesomecaveatstotheabovestatement:
• Thereisageneralconsensusintheindustrythatthefutureoftransitbusesliesontheelectricpath(batteryorfuelcellpowered).Busmanufacturersarethereforeaggressivelydevelopingandimprovingtheire-busproductline.Thisisconfirmedbytherapiddevelopmentofthisnewtechnology,bythepositiveandrapidwaymanufacturersarereactingtotheformal“Altoona”testsandtotransitproperties'recommendations.Infact,thetechnologyprogressesatsucharatethatMARCONexpectsthefewweaknessesobservedduringtheETSfieldtrialtobecorrectedbythetimeETSisreadytoplaceanorderforwhatwillbeanewgenerationofbatteryelectricbuses.
• ETSstaffexperiencednumerousissueswiththetestbusesfrommaintenancetooperatingcomplaints.MostoftheseproblemsthatarenotattributabletotheinexperienceorlackoftrainingoftheETSstaffhavebeenorarecurrentlybeingimprovedandincorporatedonnewergenerationbuses.
• Muchofthemaintenancecomplaintsrelatetotechnicianunfamiliarity,andreactiontimeofthebusmanufacturer.Thismightnothaveoccurredifamorecarefultestplanhadbeenpreparedattheoutset.But,thissituationwouldmostlikelynotoccurifabuspurchaseprojectwithappropriatepurchaseconditions,training,toolingandpartssupplyisfollowed.
• Someofthemaintenanceissuesarerelatedtoadditionalstafftimeandhandlingofthebuses,duringthebusypeakbookoutandservicingtimes,andweekends.Moreappropriateplanningwouldhaveforeseentheneedforadditionalresourcesforsuchatestprogram.
• Operatorcomplaintsoftenarerelatedtosafetyconditions.Inatestfleetsome“safety”complaintscan’tbeaddressedwithurgency.Thiscanleadtomiscommunicationoftheproblem,delayedtroubleshooting,andreducedconfidenceinthebus.NewbatteryelectricbuseswouldneedconcentratedeffortstotrainOperatorsanddealwithproblemspromptly.Timelymanufacturersupportandchangesinprogrammingcouldalleviatemanyproblems.
• Itisclearthatpurchasingafleetofbatteryelectricbuseswillrequireachangeinmaintenancestaffsupport.Somereductionofrunningmaintenanceandpreventivemaintenanceactivitiescouldbere-allocatedtoe-buscomplextroubleshooting,andongoingservicingactivities.Amorethoroughanalysisoftasks,skills,timeandmotionswouldberequiredtofullyunderstandtheimpact.
6:3
BothoftheotherCanadianevaluationsofelectricbusesinrevenueserviceconfirmedthatthebusestestedwerereliable.InWinnipeg,itwasconcludedthatbatteryelectrictransitbusesperformreliablyandefficientlyinManitoba’sextremecold47climate.TheSTOandSTMevaluationsconcludedthatfore-busesperformanceintermsofautonomy,operatingtimeandregularitywouldallowtheiruseoveralargeportionoftheMontréalandOutaouaisnetworks.Thelackofsignificantvariationsinperformancebasedonoperatingconditions(temperature,drivingstyle,passengerload,chargetime,etc.)justifiedthisconclusion.Becauseofitspredictableandstableperformance,theuseofe-busesdoesnotaddanymajoroperationalconstraintsotherthanthoseoftime,spaceandelectricalsupplyrequiredforcharging48.
TheWinnipegevaluationwasalong-termcooperativeeffortbetweenthemanufacturer,WinnipegTransitandRedRiverCollege,andallowedtechnicalimprovementstobemadetothebusbeforetheformalevaluationphase.TheSTOandSTMevaluationsoftheBYDbusconductedbyAVTidentifiedmanyissueswiththedesignofthebus.ThesewereforwardedtoBYDandBYDrespondedaddressingeachofthe57itemsandconfirmingwhatactionwastakentoremedythedeficiencies49.Thesecorrectiveactionswereincorporatedinsubsequentdesignmodificationstothebus.TheETSevaluatedanearlygenerationoftheBYDbus,aversionthatprecededtheimprovementssuggestedbytheSTMandSTO.Therefore,ETSidentifiedmanyofthesamedeficienciesnotedbyAVTthathavenowbeenaddressedinthecommerciallyavailableversionofthebus.
6.2.2 BatteryElectricBusReliability,USA
TheinformationavailableregardingthereliabilityofelectricbusestestedorevaluatedintheUSAconfirmstheresultsobtainedbyCanadiantransitproperties.TheAltoonatestsofallelectricbusesidentifiednumerousdeficienciesfoundwithallthreeelectricbusestested(BYD,NFIandProterra)50.Ofthethreetestsconducted,theNewFlyerXE40wasfoundtohavethefewestdeficiencies.TheBYDbuswasfoundtohavethemost.BYDlearnedfromthetestresultsandimmediatelydesignedremediationmeasurestocorrectallthedeficienciesfound51.AvisittotheBYDmanufacturingplantinearlyFebruary2016confirmedthatthedesignchangesidentifiedwerebeingincorporatedintothelatestBYDbusesbeingassembled.ThelatestgenerationoftheBYDbusesisexpectedtohavefarfewerreliabilitydeficienciesasaresultofthesedesignchanges.
MTA's(Chicago,IL)experiencewiththeNFIXE40electricbushasmirroredthatofWinnipeg,confirmingthegoodreliabilityofthebus52.
FoothillsTransitevaluatedtheProterraelectricbusesfromApril2014toJuly2015,accumulatingapproximately600,000kmonthe12electricbusesusedinrevenueservice.TheirperformancewascomparedtoacontrolfleetofCNGbuses.Thebusavailabilitytargetforthistransitsystemis85%,higherthanthatofETS.Duringthereportingperiod,theaverageavailabilitywas90%fortheE-busesand94%fortheCNGbuses.Bus-relatedmaintenanceissuesnotassociatedwiththedrive
47 ManitobaBatteryElectricTransitBusFleetDevelopmentandDemonstrationReport,RedRiverCollege,Winnipeg,October2015.48 EvaluationReport:BYD'sGreenCityElectricBus(STO&STM),Sociétédegestionetd'acquisitiondevéhiculesdetransport(AVT),
August2014.49 LetterfromBYDtoAVTdated5August2015.50 TheresultsoftheAltoonatestofNovaBusnewLFS-ewerenotyetavailableatthetimeofMARCON’sanalysis.51 K9MAltoonaTestFindingsCorrectiveActionsApplied,2015.52 ConversationwithCTAProjectManager,8January,2016.
6:4
componentsexplainedthehigherpercentageofunavailabilityfortheE-buses53.TheevaluationconcludedthattheE-buseshaveprovedtobeveryreliable.BusMileageBetweenRoadCalls(MBRC)forthedataperiodwasmorethan9,000miles;propulsion-relatedMBRCwasmorethan25,000miles.
KingCountyMetroinSeattleevaluatedtheProterraCatalyst40’electricbusfrom17October2015to31January2016.Thebuswasoperated24/7overaperiodof106daystosimulateafullyear'sworthofoperatingtime.Thebusaccumulatedover52,000kmincontrolledtestingwithafull-simulatedpassengerload,andunderwentover1,750chargingcycles.Itexperiencednounforeseenmaintenanceissuesandwasavailablefor98%ofthe106days.The2%unavailabilitywasduetoregularroutinemaintenanceinspections54.
6.3 ReliabilityexperienceinwinterfieldtrialsinEdmontonThefollowingfigureshowspropulsionsystemandotherrelatedeventsforelectricbuses6011and6013.The6011BYDbusoperatedbeforeandaftertheofficialtestperiodandisshownhereforreferencepurposesonly.
Table6.1MaintenanceEvents-ElectricBuses
Eventsduringthefieldtrialsperiod:
• Extramaintenanceandoperatingstaffeffortwasrequiredtoensuretheelectricbusesoperatedmostdaysduringthetestperiod.
• Therewerefewpropulsionrelatedproblemswitheitherbusduringthetestperiod.TheBYD6011bushadonepropulsionrelatedissueandtheNFI6013hadnopropulsionrelatedissues.Infact,mostofthemaintenanceitemsexperiencedoncethebuseswereinEdmontonwereunrelatedtothebattery/propulsionsystem.Forexample,mirrors,doors,destinationsignmaintenanceiscommontoanytypeofbus.
• 6011Towing/Boostwasrelatedtotheproblemof12Vbusbodybatteriesdraining(possiblyduetoanETSaddedSmartbussystem).
• 6013hadSundaychangeoversduringthetestperiod.ThisisbecausetheSundayroutesareapproximately360km,so6013waschangedoutafterapproximately90km.
• BYDbuses6011and6012alsooperatedoutsideoftheJan7–Feb5formaltestperiod.Issuesoutsideofthetestperiodarealsonotedbelow.
53 FoothillTransitBatteryElectricBusDemonstrationResults,LeslieEudy,RobertProhaska,KennethKelly,andMatthewPost,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,January2016.
54FreshEnergyVideoReportdated29March2016,http://fresh-energy.org/2016/03/seattles-experience-with-electric-buses/.
Unit No Date Completed
Job Description Labor Hours
N6011 09-11-2015 RE PAIR Cooling S ystem 13.1
N6011 10-11-2015 RE PAIR DoorP anels Interior/E xterior 1.2
N6011 10-11-2015 RE PAIR ModP anels/InfoHolder 1.9
N6011 12-11-2015 RE PAIR Body/CabInterior/E xterior 1.3
N6011 17-11-2015 DIAGNOS E T otalVehicle 5.5
N6011 17-11-2015 INS P E CT PMCVIP 11.0
N6011 18-11-2015 DIAGNOS E Abs/T ractionControl 9.0
N6011 18-11-2015 RE PAIR Battery 0.0
N6011 23-11-2015 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.0
N6011 23-11-2015 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 6.4
N6011 25-11-2015 RE PAIR Decals 2.8
N6011 25-11-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 3.2
N6011 25-11-2015 PRE P S E RVICE Body/CabInterior/E xterior 0.0
N6011 07-12-2015 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.0
N6011 09-12-2015 DIAGNOS E WindshieldWiper&Washer 2.9
N6011 09-12-2015 RE PAIR Mirrors 1.1
N6011 10-12-2015 DIAGNOS E S martbus S uite 0.0 Unit No Date Completed
Job Description Labor Hours
N6011 11-12-2015 CL E AN/S E RVIC InteriorComplete 7.0 N6013 18-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHMirrors 0.3
N6011 22-12-2015 RE PAIR Decals 1.2 N6013 19-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 3.3
N6011 23-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 2.6 N6013 23-12-2015 DIAGNOS E DoorMechanism 3.1
N6011 28-12-2015 RE PAIR Abs/T ractionControl 2.8 N6013 23-12-2015 RE PAIR DestinationS ign 2.1
N6011 28-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 0.5 N6013 23-12-2015 PRE P S E RVICE Body/CabInterior/E xterior 13.3
N6011 29-12-2015 DIAGNOS E Abs/T ractionControl 0.0 N6013 24-12-2015 INS P E CT PMCVIP 7.0
N6013 04-01-2016 RE PAIR Decals 3.5
N6011 25-01-2016 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 1.0 N6013 11-01-2016 DIAGNOS E S martbus S uite 0.0
N6011 25-01-2016 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.5 N6013 12-01-2016 RE PAIR DestinationS ign 0.5
N6013 17-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 0.8
N6013 20-01-2016 DIAGNOS E Farebox 0.4
N6013 24-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
N6013 28-01-2016 DIAGNOS E DestinationS ign 1.7
N6013 31-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 0.8
N6013 03-02-2016 RE PAIR P anels -E xterior 6.0
N6011 02-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 2.7
N6011 03-03-2016 DIAGNOS E Controls -E lectricP ropuls ionMotor
3.4
N6011 03-03-2016 S HOP S UPP L Y Fee 0.0
N6011 04-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E DoorP anels Interior/E xterior 0.7
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E DoorMechanism 0.5
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E L ighting S ystem 0.0
N6011 03-03-2016 DIAGNOS E Controls -E lectricP ropuls ionMotor
3.4
N6011 08-03-2016 RE PAIR DoorMechanism 1.3
N6011 02-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 2.7
N6011 04-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
Test
Perio
d
Unit No Date Completed
Job Description Labor Hours
N6011 09-11-2015 RE PAIR Cooling S ystem 13.1
N6011 10-11-2015 RE PAIR DoorP anels Interior/E xterior 1.2
N6011 10-11-2015 RE PAIR ModP anels/InfoHolder 1.9
N6011 12-11-2015 RE PAIR Body/CabInterior/E xterior 1.3
N6011 17-11-2015 DIAGNOS E T otalVehicle 5.5
N6011 17-11-2015 INS P E CT PMCVIP 11.0
N6011 18-11-2015 DIAGNOS E Abs/T ractionControl 9.0
N6011 18-11-2015 RE PAIR Battery 0.0
N6011 23-11-2015 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.0
N6011 23-11-2015 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 6.4
N6011 25-11-2015 RE PAIR Decals 2.8
N6011 25-11-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 3.2
N6011 25-11-2015 PRE P S E RVICE Body/CabInterior/E xterior 0.0
N6011 07-12-2015 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.0
N6011 09-12-2015 DIAGNOS E WindshieldWiper&Washer 2.9
N6011 09-12-2015 RE PAIR Mirrors 1.1
N6011 10-12-2015 DIAGNOS E S martbus S uite 0.0 Unit No Date Completed
Job Description Labor Hours
N6011 11-12-2015 CL E AN/S E RVIC InteriorComplete 7.0 N6013 18-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHMirrors 0.3
N6011 22-12-2015 RE PAIR Decals 1.2 N6013 19-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 3.3
N6011 23-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 2.6 N6013 23-12-2015 DIAGNOS E DoorMechanism 3.1
N6011 28-12-2015 RE PAIR Abs/T ractionControl 2.8 N6013 23-12-2015 RE PAIR DestinationS ign 2.1
N6011 28-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 0.5 N6013 23-12-2015 PRE P S E RVICE Body/CabInterior/E xterior 13.3
N6011 29-12-2015 DIAGNOS E Abs/T ractionControl 0.0 N6013 24-12-2015 INS P E CT PMCVIP 7.0
N6013 04-01-2016 RE PAIR Decals 3.5
N6011 25-01-2016 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 1.0 N6013 11-01-2016 DIAGNOS E S martbus S uite 0.0
N6011 25-01-2016 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.5 N6013 12-01-2016 RE PAIR DestinationS ign 0.5
N6013 17-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 0.8
N6013 20-01-2016 DIAGNOS E Farebox 0.4
N6013 24-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
N6013 28-01-2016 DIAGNOS E DestinationS ign 1.7
N6013 31-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 0.8
N6013 03-02-2016 RE PAIR P anels -E xterior 6.0
N6011 02-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 2.7
N6011 03-03-2016 DIAGNOS E Controls -E lectricP ropuls ionMotor
3.4
N6011 03-03-2016 S HOP S UPP L Y Fee 0.0
N6011 04-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E DoorP anels Interior/E xterior 0.7
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E DoorMechanism 0.5
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E L ighting S ystem 0.0
N6011 03-03-2016 DIAGNOS E Controls -E lectricP ropuls ionMotor
3.4
N6011 08-03-2016 RE PAIR DoorMechanism 1.3
N6011 02-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 2.7
N6011 04-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
Tes
t P
erio
d
Unit No Date Completed
Job Description Labor Hours
N6011 09-11-2015 RE PAIR Cooling S ystem 13.1
N6011 10-11-2015 RE PAIR DoorP anels Interior/E xterior 1.2
N6011 10-11-2015 RE PAIR ModP anels/InfoHolder 1.9
N6011 12-11-2015 RE PAIR Body/CabInterior/E xterior 1.3
N6011 17-11-2015 DIAGNOS E T otalVehicle 5.5
N6011 17-11-2015 INS P E CT PMCVIP 11.0
N6011 18-11-2015 DIAGNOS E Abs/T ractionControl 9.0
N6011 18-11-2015 RE PAIR Battery 0.0
N6011 23-11-2015 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.0
N6011 23-11-2015 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 6.4
N6011 25-11-2015 RE PAIR Decals 2.8
N6011 25-11-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 3.2
N6011 25-11-2015 PRE P S E RVICE Body/CabInterior/E xterior 0.0
N6011 07-12-2015 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.0
N6011 09-12-2015 DIAGNOS E WindshieldWiper&Washer 2.9
N6011 09-12-2015 RE PAIR Mirrors 1.1
N6011 10-12-2015 DIAGNOS E S martbus S uite 0.0 Unit No Date Completed
Job Description Labor Hours
N6011 11-12-2015 CL E AN/S E RVIC InteriorComplete 7.0 N6013 18-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHMirrors 0.3
N6011 22-12-2015 RE PAIR Decals 1.2 N6013 19-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 3.3
N6011 23-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 2.6 N6013 23-12-2015 DIAGNOS E DoorMechanism 3.1
N6011 28-12-2015 RE PAIR Abs/T ractionControl 2.8 N6013 23-12-2015 RE PAIR DestinationS ign 2.1
N6011 28-12-2015 AT T ACHDE T ACHWheels/R im 0.5 N6013 23-12-2015 PRE P S E RVICE Body/CabInterior/E xterior 13.3
N6011 29-12-2015 DIAGNOS E Abs/T ractionControl 0.0 N6013 24-12-2015 INS P E CT PMCVIP 7.0
N6013 04-01-2016 RE PAIR Decals 3.5
N6011 25-01-2016 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 1.0 N6013 11-01-2016 DIAGNOS E S martbus S uite 0.0
N6011 25-01-2016 T OWING/BOOS T T otalVehicle 0.5 N6013 12-01-2016 RE PAIR DestinationS ign 0.5
N6013 17-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 0.8
N6013 20-01-2016 DIAGNOS E Farebox 0.4
N6013 24-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
N6013 28-01-2016 DIAGNOS E DestinationS ign 1.7
N6013 31-01-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 0.8
N6013 03-02-2016 RE PAIR P anels -E xterior 6.0
N6011 02-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 2.7
N6011 03-03-2016 DIAGNOS E Controls -E lectricP ropuls ionMotor
3.4
N6011 03-03-2016 S HOP S UPP L Y Fee 0.0
N6011 04-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E DoorP anels Interior/E xterior 0.7
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E DoorMechanism 0.5
N6011 08-03-2016 DIAGNOS E L ighting S ystem 0.0
N6011 03-03-2016 DIAGNOS E Controls -E lectricP ropuls ionMotor
3.4
N6011 08-03-2016 RE PAIR DoorMechanism 1.3
N6011 02-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 2.7
N6011 04-03-2016 CHANGEOVE R T otalVehicle 1.3
Tes
t P
erio
d
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Table6.2OtherMaintenanceorDesignIssues-ETSElectricBuses
BYDBuses(6011,6012) NewFlyerConnectingthechargerisanawkwardtwo-handedoperation.BYDhasmovedthelocationtofrontsideonnewbuses–moreconvenientwithonlyasingleactionrequiredtoinsertthecharger.
Bushasconsiderablebodyrollduetorooftopbatteriesandcomponents.Afrontswaybarwouldimprovethissituation.
Batterypackonfrontrightwheelwellrestrictsdrivervisionforrighthandturns.Someroutesand/ordrivershaveissuewiththis.BYDhasmovedthisbatterypackonitsnewgenerationofbuses.
NewFlyerchargingconnectorisheavy.Anoptionalavailableliftingarmisrequiredforfleetservicetoreducelikelihoodofconnectordamageorstrains.
ABSproblemsearlyonkeptthebusoutofservice.Softwareissue,correctedbyBYDservicestaff.
Buspowermustbecycledon/off30%ofthetimetoconnecttooverheadcharger.
Frontdoorre-openingafterclosing.Asensorwasoutofadjustmentandrepaired.
12Vbusbodybatteriesdrainingwhenparked.ETSSmartbussystemcouldbedrainingpower.
Wiringharnessespoorweatherproofsealsnotedbutdidnotcauseissuesduringthetestprogram.Beingimprovedonnewbuses.
BYDbusaccelerationanddecelerationismoreaggressivethanwhatoperatorsareusedtoduetohightorqueofelectricdrive.WintertiresrequiredinETSwinter.BYDcanre-programtheregenerativebrakingbutitmayimpactenergyconsumption.
BYDbustoohighforexistingbuswash.Buswashinnewfacilityneedstobespecifiedaccordingly.
Source:MARCON,2016
Electrificationoftransitbuseshasbeenevolvingformanyyearsinvariousforms.Trolleybuseshavebeenoperatingwithelectricalcomponentsallovertheworldfordecades.Hybridbuseswithelectricalcomponentshavebeencommonandabundantforseveralyears,andfuelcellinsmallerdemonstrationfleetsaroundtheworld.Thisexperienceallowsrapiddevelopmentofbatterybuses,usingwell-knownandgenerallyreliabletechnologies.Moreofachallengeistheintegrationofthesevariouscomponentsandlogiccontrolstonetwork.Table6.3indicatestherelativereliabilityofthevariouscomponentsusedinelectricbusesbasedonourexperience.Thenon-electricdrivecomponentshavewarrantiessimilartothosefordieselbuses.
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Table6.3BatteryElectricbusComponentsandAttributes
Component Notes ExpectedReliability/WarrantyPeriod
BusChassisandcomponentlayout
Batterybuseshaveverysimilarchassislayoutandattributestostandarddiesel,CNG,hybridorTrolleybuses.Themaindifferences,otherthanBatteries/Motortodrivethebus,iselectricaloperatedaccessories.Asummaryofthesebatterybusattributedifferenceislistedbelow.
BatteryPack
LithiumIon
TechnologyalsousedinHybridbusesandTrolleybuses,andrecentfuelcellbuses.
Goodreliability.
6-12+yearslifeupfordebate.
Warranty-NFIandBYDhaveoffered12yearwarranty.
BatteryPackandComponentCooling
Coolingforbatteries,motor,invertersrequired.TechnologyalsousedinHybridbusesandTrolleybuses.
Goodreliability.
Simplecoolingloopusingelectricfan/radiators.
VoltageInverters,PowerModules
SimilartechnologyusedinHybrid,Trolley,FuelCellbuses.
Improvingreliability.Lessonslearnedfromhybridandfuelcellbuses.
Warrantyfrom2-6years.
Drivemotor(s)
Singleordualwheelmotors
TechnologyusedinHybrid,Trolley,Fuelcellbuses.
Goodreliability.
UsuallyEuropeantechnology.
Warrantyfrom2-6years.
Electricbusrearaxle Standardproductionaxlesavailable
Goodreliability,standardaxles.Specialdriveshaftmustbeused.
Warranty5-6years.
PowerSteering SimilartechnologyusedinHybrid,Trolley,FuelCellbuses.
Goodreliability.
Warrantycoveredunder1-2yearbumpertobumper.
AirCompressor SimilartechnologyusedinHybrid,Trolley,FuelCellbuses.
Excellentreliability–directdrivescrollcompressorsoftenused.
Warrantycoveredunder1-2yearbumper-bumper.
BodyHeating Dieselheatersusedinmostdieselbusessince2007.Electricheatingevolving.
Fairreliability.Dieselheatershaveoftenbeenproblematicinbuseswithsmokingandmaintenanceproblems.
AirConditioning TechnologyusedinHybrid,Trolley,Fuelcellbuses.
Excellentreliability.Electricdrivenaircompressorscommonandstandardavailability.
ElectricalIntegration CommunicationandLogicbetweenelectricalcomponentsiscritical.
Good-Fairreliability.Somemanufacturershavemorerobustexperienceinintegratingvariouselectricalcomponentsthanothers.Techniciansmusthavetrainingandexperience.
HighVoltageWiring Similartechnologyusedinhybridbuses,trolleybusesandFuelCellbuses.
Goodreliability.Somemanufacturershavemorerobustexperienceinqualitycontrolandinstallationmethods.
Source:MARCON,2016.
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6.4 Impactofwinterperformanceofe-busesonETS’s6.4.1 Temperature
ConsideringEdmontonisoneofthecoldestcitiesinNorthAmerica,temperatureisofparticularimportancetoETS.Adetailedanalysisofthetestresultsobtainedduringthetestprogramwasconductedtodeterminetheimpactoftemperatureonperformance.TheAVTreportontheSTO/STMtrialsinQuebecwasalsotakenintoaccount55.Althoughtherewereonlysevenverycold(-15to-22oC)daysduringtheEdmontontestperiod,MARCONisconfident56thattheconclusionsofthistestprogramcanbereliablyextrapolatedtocoldertemperatures:
• Propulsionenergyuse:Propulsionenergyuseandbatteryperformanceisunaffectedbycolderambienttemperatures.RefertoSection3.8.2forfurtherinformation.
• Interiorbusheat:Empiricalmeasurementsshowthatacomfortabletemperaturewasmaintainedduringthetestprograminsidealle-buses,withorwithoutthedieselheater.However…o Electricheat–rigoroustestinginQuebecbyAVThasconcludedthatdieselheatis
requiredinverycoldtemperatures57.Upto50%ofbatterypowercouldbeusedtoheatthebuswithelectricheaters.Ofcoursethisdependsonoutsidetemperature,anddooropeningfrequency.Anecdotalexperienceshowstypically20-30%energyuseforelectricheating.Thiscanbeeasilycalculated–atypicalSpheros300dieselheatercanproduce30kW/hour(100,000BTU)ofmaximumheatingenergy.ETStestsshowed15-20kWh/hourofpropulsionenergyuse.
o Conversely,electricairconditioningcanconsumeupto35kWofenergy.Onextremelyhotdayswithfrequentdooropenings,thiscouldlimitthebuses’operatingrange.
Customerperceptionsoftheindoortemperatureine-buses(seesection4.2.7)indicatethatalle-busesperformedadequatelyand,ifanything,werealittlewarmerthanpreferred.
6.4.2 Servicing
Severalservicingissueswereidentifiedduringthisstudy:
• Batteryelectricbusesmustbeparkedintheheatedparkingbarnwhennotoperating.ThisisnormalforETSoperations,butcriticalforbatterybuses.AWhitePaperfromCALSTART58showedLithium-Ionbatteryperformancedropsoffsharplybelow0oC.However,whenvehiclesarekeptwarmwhennotinuse,theheatmanagementsystemonboardthebusesiswellabletopreventthisdropinperformancebykeepingthebatteriesattheiroptimaltemperatureunderallconditions.
• Dieselusageforspaceheatersnormallyincreasesincoldtemperatures.Adieselfillscheduleshouldbedesignedtoensurethetankhassufficientfuelforaday’soperation.
• Buswashing.Batteryelectricbuseshavemuchmorewiring,connectors,electroniccontrolsandcomponentsthanstandarddieselbuses.Meltingsnowonroofandsalt
55 EvaluationReport:BYD'sGreenCityElectricBus(STO&STM),Sociétédegestionetd'acquisitiondevéhiculesdetransport(AVT),August2014.
56 Certainlywithinthecontractuallevelofprecisionofthisassignment.57 Ibid55.58 E-truckPerformanceinColdWeather,CALSTART,Pasadena,CA,June2014.
6:8
intrusionontocomponentscancauseelectricalproblems.Acleaningandwashingschedulemayhavetobedesigneddependingonroadsaltbuild-uponbuscomponents.
6.4.3 BusDriving
Severaloperatingissueswereidentifiedduringthefieldtrials:
• Batteryelectricbuseshaveregenerativebraking.Whentheacceleratorpedalisreleased,thesystemusesthemotorasanalternator,therebyautomaticallyconvertingthekineticenergyfromthemovementofthebusintoelectricenergythatisbeingsentbacktothebatterypack.Theuseofthemotorinthatmannercausesthebustoslowdown.Thiscancauserearwheelslip,orABSevents,inveryslipperyconditionsbyhavinglessdirectcontroloverrearwheelbraking.BYDrecommendsturningofftheregenerationinextremelyslipperyconditions(icyroads).
• Electricmotorscanhavealotoftorqueandso,electricbusescanacceleraterelativelyrapidly,dependingonhowthedrivesystemhasbeenprogrammed.Rapidaccelerationcanalsocauserearwheelslip.Toacertainextent,operatorsneedappropriatetrainingandmustgetusedtothisaddedpower.Snowtirescanbeinstalledinthewintertohelpthembettercontrolthebusbutaccelerationanddecelerationprogrammingcanbeadjustedbythemanufacturerifnecessary.Reducingtheregenerationrateonbrakingwillhoweverdecreasetheamountofenergythatcanberecoveredandreusedbythebatteries.
• Inanyvehicle,energyuseisgreatlyaffectedbydrivinghabits.DrivertrainingprogramsarestronglyrecommendedtomaximizethebenefitofusingbatteryelectricbusesifETSelectstoelectrifyitsfleet.
• Similartoothertechnologies(hybrid,trolley,fuelcell)batterybuseshavedifferentwarninglightsandalarms,andsafetyprotocols.Againfocuseddrivertrainingisrequired.
• WinnipegTransithasnotedupto15%moreenergyusageonheavysnowdays(2”onroadormore).Thisshouldbetemporaryinoperationasitishopedroadclearingandtrafficwillreducethesnowload.
6.5 LessonsLearnedLessonslearnedandconclusionsregardingtheETSfieldtestandthisinvestigationintoe-Busreliabilityaresummarizedbelow.
TheliteraturereviewaswellastheresultsfromthefieldtestinEdmontonrevealedthate-busesastestedare,fromanelectricdriveviewpoint,atleastasreliableasdieselbusescurrentlydeployedatETS.Ofcourse,thequantityofdataatourdisposalwassomewhatlimitedbytheshortdurationofEdmonton’sfieldtestandbythenewnessofthetechnologyitself.Butgiventhefactthat:
• almostallotherbuscomponentsareakintothosecurrentlybeingused;• electricmotorsaresimple,wellknownandhaveproventobereliableinmany
applications;and,• batteriesareevolvingrapidlybuthavesofardemonstratedtheirrobustness.
ItshouldbenotedthatWTChasbeenexperiencingissueswithitsen-routechargingsystem.ThisshouldbeinvestigatedfurtherinordertocorrectanypotentialproblemifthistechnologyistobeadoptedbyETS.
7:1
7 Externalitiesandrelatedcosts
7.1 MethodologyExternalitiesrefertocostsandbenefitsassociatedwiththechoicetoinvestine-busesthatarenotincurreddirectlybyETSbutthatmustbeconsideredinabroaderperspectivebyamunicipalgovernment.
Inordertodeterminesomeofthesecosts,theETSSteeringCommitteedirectedMARCONtoworkfromasinglescenario:40e-busesassignedtoanewfacilitystillinplanning,theNorthEastTransitGarage(NETG).Calculationsdescribedinthissectionarebasedonthisscenariobutcalculationsfirsthadtobeperformedtodeterminewhetherthegridcouldhandletheadditionalelectricload,andifthebusescouldhandletheusageprescribedbytheSteeringCommittee.
7.1.1 Methodologyusedtoanalyzegridimpacts
Onelimitingfactorwhenconsideringlarge-scaledeploymentofe-busesistheimpacttotheelectricalgrid,andtheassessmentofavailablepoweratpotentialcharginglocations.Poweravailabilitycanalwaysbeincreasedbyaddinginfrastructure,butpotentiallyatgreatcost.InFigure7.1,electricitycreatedatapowerstationisdeliveredtoanendcustomerthroughaseriesofinfrastructureitemsincludingstep-uptransformers,highvoltagetransmissionlines,step-downtransformersubstations,lowervoltagelocaltransmissionlines,andcustomerlocationtransformers.Anyoftheseinfrastructurepiecescanbecapacitychallengedbasedonthelocaldemand.
InEdmonton,thelocaldistributionutilityisEPCOR,anditistheirresponsibilitytoanticipatethepowerneedsoftheirterritoryandplantheinstallationofequipmentthatthecustomerswillrequiretosatisfydemand.Eitherthecustomerortheutilitycaninstallequipmentonthecustomer-sideofadistributionsubstationwithoutregulatoryapprovals.TheAlbertaElectricSystemOperator(AESO)istheregulatorthatprovidesapprovalstotheutilitiestoinstallmajorequipment(substations)thatconnectsdirectlytothegrid.AnAESOregulatedapprovalislengthyandcostlyastheprocessincludesmandatorypublicengagement,front-endengineering,andcouldtakeuptotwoyearsforfinalapprovals.Inthebusinesscasepresentedinsection9,MARCONassumesthatnonewsubstationswouldbebuiltasEPCORdidnotraisethispossibilitywhenpresentedwiththeparametersofthestudy.Substationcapacityatpeakloadisthusoneofthemostsignificantlimitinginfrastructureitemsinthestudy,andthechargingstrategiesdescribedbelowreflectdifferentapproachestodeliveringelectricitytoe-buses.
Figure7.1-KeyComponentsofanelectricalgrid
7:2
Inordertoestablishtheamountofpoweravailableforchargingatvariouslocations,MARCONconnectedwithEPCORandrequestedacurrentandforward-lookingassessmentofavailablepowerateachtransitgarage.EPCORprovideddatafromwhichMARCONwasabletocalculatethemaximumnumberofbusesthatthispoweravailabilitycouldservice.
Theenergyrequiredonadailybasisbyeachofthe40e-buseswasdeterminedbymakingadetailedanalysisofalltheblocksservedbythefleetpostedattheWestwoodfacility,(WestwoodGarage).Potentialblocksthate-busescanservicewerethenidentified.Finally,theoptimalassignmentofe-busestopotentialblockswasdetermined.
AbatterydepletionsimulationdevelopedbyMARCONwasthenusedtopredictthestate-of-charge(SoC)ofbusesreturningtothegarage.TheSoCofabusanditstotalbatterycapacitydictatehowmanyminutesofchargingarerequiredtosupplyasufficientamountenergytothebatterysoitcan(minimally)serviceitsnextblockassignment,andideallybefullycharged.
Despitetheirrating,chargingstationperformanceisultimatelylimitedbythechemistryofthebatteryonthebus.Manybusvendorsareusingamixtureofthirdpartyandproprietarybatterytechnology;someoperationalconstraintslimittheirdeployment.Thescopeofthisprojectdidnotincludeacompletereviewofallchargingoptionsavailableonthemarket.Forthepurposesofthisreport,MARCONbaseditscalculationsontheequipmentprovidedbythevendorsthatparticipatedinthistestprogram.
Onlytwochargingtechnologieswereconsidered:Trickle-charginganden-routecharging.
BYDofferstrickle-charging,conductivechargingunits.PowerspecificationsallowforaBYD12mbustogetafullchargefromemptyin3.5to5½hours,dependingonunitused.
Althoughaconductivesystemisavailablefromthissupplier,NewFlyeroffersanen-routerapidchargerthatwasusedforourcalculationsinEdmonton.Basedonamaturetechnologyfromtherailindustry,thischargeroffersUpto300kWofoutputpowerfroma600VAC3-phasenominalvoltageinput.ItisavailableinbothNemaType1(Indoor)andNemaType3R(Outdoor)enclosures.
Thetwochargingmethodsarefundamentallydifferentinhowtheyinteractwiththegrid,andtheexternalitiesassociatedwitheacharediscussedlaterinthissection.Ultimately,theenvironmentalexternalitiesareinfluencedbythetechnologyconstraintsofeachchargingmethod,becausetheutilizationpotentialofthebusesdeterminestheamountofdieselbeingdisplaced.
7.2 Batterydepletionandfuel-useThebatteryofanelectricbusisanalogoustoitsfueltank.Theoretically,therangeofabusisdeterminedbyitsbatterycapacityanditsfuelefficiency(oftenrelatedtoitscurbweight).Practically,otherfactorssuchasitspayload,thedrivinghabitsoftheoperatorandroadconditionshavesubstantialimpactofitsperformance.
Figure7.2Winnipeg'sen-routechargingequipmentwithaNewFlyerbus
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In the ETS field tests, the BYD buses wereequipped with 324 kWh battery, and the NewFlyerhada200kWhbattery.Bothvendorsofferalternative battery capacities, but 324kWh isone of the largest capacity commerciallyavailabletoday.
In a conservative way, MARCON selected theworst fuel-efficiency performances observedduring the field trials to calculate the single-chargerangepotentialofbothe-bustypes.Thisrepresented electricity consumption rate of1.25kWh/km for the BYD bus. Themanufacturer recommends that at SoC of 15%,the bus returns to the Garage (warning lightsappear on the console). BYD can thereforehandlearunof220kmbefore itheadsbacktothe garage for a recharge. Table 7.1demonstrates a battery depletion model for aBYD bus. The cells marked in green representtime in which the bus is recharging. Note thattheminimumSoCinthisexampleneverreachesbelow15%.
In this example, the bus consumesapproximately 22.5 kWh of electricity per hourof use, and recharges at a rate of 60 kW/hour.The best use for a trickle-charged bus isthereforein“peaker”capacity(2blocksassignedperday)asitenablesitsownertomaximizethe
servicethebuswilltherebyprocure.
InthecaseofanNFIbus,theelectricityconsumptionratewasmeasureda1.38kWh/km.Thebuscanthereforecover116kmonafullchargeofits200kWhbattery60.NFI’se-busoperatinginWinnipegrechargesen-routewiththerapidchargingconductivesystemdescribedearlier.Itislocatedwherethebushasascheduledlayoverattheendofeachrun.Thisallowsthebustotop-upforafewminuteseachhour.Thischargingtechnologycaneradicateconcernswithrangelimitations,providedthatasufficientamountofstrategicallylocatedchargersareavailablealongitsroute61.
59 Rapidchargersdonotrechargebatteriesasfastpast80%oftheirnominalcapacity.MARCONthereforeuses80%ofnominalcapacityasthemaximumSoCinitsmodel.SeediscussiononroundtripefficiencyintheAppendix1lexicon.
60 WhileNFIcanalsodeploya300kWhbatterybus,BYDwasusedtomodelthetrickle-chargingscenariobecauseitismoreefficient.
61 ItshouldbenotedthatwhiletheWTChasa100kWchargerattheirgaragefacility,ithasrarelybeenusedbecausetherapid-chargerlocateden-routeprovidessufficientopportunitiestokeepthebatteryfullycharged.
Hour# Time Charge(kWh)
0 5:00 3241 6:00 2992 7:00 274
3 8:00 2494 9:00 2245 10:00 199
6 11:00 2597 12:00 3198 13:00 324
9 14:00 29910 15:00 27411 16:00 249
12 17:00 22413 18:00 19914 19:00 174
15 20:00 4916 21:00 12417 22:00 184
18 23:00 24419 0:00 30420 1:00 324
21 2:00 32422 3:00 32423 4:00 324
24 5:00 324
Source:MARCON,2016.
Hour# Time
Charge59(kWh)
0 5:00 1601 6:00 157
2 7:00 1553 8:00 1524 9:00 150
5 10:00 1476 11:00 1447 12:00 142
8 13:00 1399 14:00 13710 15:00 134
11 16:00 13112 17:00 12913 18:00 126
14 19:00 12415 20:00 12116 21:00 118
17 22:00 11618 23:00 11319 0:00 111
20 1:00 10821 2:00 16022 3:00 160
23 4:00 160
24 5:00 200
Source:MARCON,2016.
Table7.1BYDBatteryDischarge
Table7.2–NFIBatteryDischarge
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Table7.2demonstratesabatterydischargemodelofen-routechargingfora200kWhNFIbususingarapidconductivecharger,asisthecaseinWinnipeg.Inthisexample,thee-bususesapproximately27.5kWhofelectricityperhour,andthebusreceives5minutesperhourofchargingusinga300kW(25kWh)chargingstation.Itcanbeobservedthatthebatterydepletesthroughouttheday,buttheminimumrecommendedSoC(20%)thatwouldrequirethebustocomeoutofserviceisneverreached.Thusthereisnorangelimitationusingthistechnology.
WhiletheaverageETSdieselfleetfuelefficiencyisapproximately54L/100km,the2013Xcelsiordieselbusesusedasbaselinecomparativevehiclesforthefieldtrialsrunningalongtheelectricbusesconsumedonly49L/100km.
7.2.1 Spaceheatinganditsimpactofenergyefficiency
Inadieselbus,heatforpassengercomfortisharvestedfromtheengine’scoolingsystemthatwouldotherwiseventthisenergy.Spaceheatingthereforehasnoimpactondieselbusenergyefficiency.Inane-bushowever,thedischargeofthebatterypackdoesnotgenerateasufficientamountofheat62tomaintaintheinteriorofthebusatacomfortabletemperatureatalltimes.Heatingloadsthereforerepresentanadditionaldrainonbatteriesunlesse-busesareequippedwithheatersfedbyanotherenergysource.Themostcommonwayistofitthebuswithanauxiliarydiesel-fuelledheater.
Usingelectricspaceheatingreducestheefficiencyofane-bussignificantly.Inourfieldtest,bothmanufacturerssuppliedane-busequippedwithadieselheaterandonebushadanelectricheateraswell.63Datafromotherfieldtrials64performedinQuebec(Montreal,GatineauandLaval)showthatonextremelycolddays,electricheaterscreateapowerdrainonbatteriescanbeasmuchas25%65ofitstotalcapacity.Theenergyconsumptionofbusesusinganelectricheatersincreasessubstantiallyontheseverycolddays,decreasingtherangeofbusesproportionately.Thiscanpotentiallylimittheblocksthatthee-buscanserviceonoccasion.
Whenusingelectricspaceheating,therearenoexternalitiesassociatedwithupstreamelectricitygenerationastheamountofenergyusedbythebusesremainsthesame.ButusingauxiliarydieselheatersincreasesbothGHGemissionsanditsassociatedcost.Thedieselheatersusedinfieldtrialsconsumedanaverageofapproximately2litresofdieselper100km.
Usingdieselspaceheaterswouldalsochangethewaythate-busescouldbecharacterizedandmarketedtocustomers.Forinstance,thebuscould(technically)nolongerbedescribedasentirely“tailpipeemissionfree”,andwhilstthisdieselconsumptionismarginal(approximately4%ofastandarddieselbus),theodourofdieselcombustionmightstillbenoticeabletocustomers.
62 TheoperationofanybatterygeneratesheatduetotheI2Rlossesascurrentflowsthroughtheinternalresistanceofthebatterywhetheritisbeingchargedordischarged.ThisisalsoknownasJouleheating.Inthecaseofdischarging,thetotalenergywithinthesystemisfixedandthetemperaturerisewillbelimitedbytheavailableenergy.Batterydesignersstrivetokeeptheinternalresistanceofthecellsaslowaspossibletominimisetheheatlossesorheatgenerationwithinthebatterybutevenwithcellresistancesaslowas1milliOhmtheheatingcanbesubstantial.SeeEffectsofInternalImpedanceforexamples.
63 NotethatdatafromtheBYDbusequippedwithanelectricheaterisconsideredunreliablebecausethatbuswasputinservicelateinthetestperiodandyieldedsporadicresults.
64 EvaluationReport:BYD'sGreenCityElectricBus(STO&STM),Sociétédegestionetd'acquisitiondevéhiculesdetransport(AVT),August2014.
65 Itshouldalsobenotedthatsevereweatherconditions(below-25C)werenotencounteredduringthetrial,thuscolderdaysthanthoseencounteredwouldlikelydecreasetheefficiencyandrangeofthebusesevenfurther.
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7.3 Assignmentof40e-busesfromWestwood
7.3.1 BlocksandRoutes
TheWestwoodgarage(andthereforeitsreplacement,theNETG)has395weekdayblocks,95Saturdayblocks,and66Sundayblocks.Tocreatea40-busscenarioforeachchargingmethod,thereneedstobeamatchbetweentherangecapabilitiesofthetechnologiesandthecharacteroftheblock.
BasedontheblockscheduleineffectonFebruary16th,2016,weekdayblocksvaryinlengthfrom430kmto12km.SaturdayandSundayblocksdonotinclude‘peaking’servicesthustheaverageblockdistanceisconsiderablylonger,263kmand275kmrespectively,comparedto110kmforweekdays.
Trickle-chargede-busesAne-busequippedwitha324kWhenergystoragesystemandconsuming1.25kWhperkilometreasmeasuredinthefieldtrialscancoverablockof220kmbeforereachingtherecommended15%SoClimit.Buttakingintoaccountaspareratioof20%,theaverageyearlydistanceascribedtoe-busesbySteeringCommittee(seefigure9.1)caneasilybeexceeded,asthemaximumpotentialofthesee-busesis57,850km.Inyear2,theusagepatterncallsfor59,000km.Thisisfeasibleasthebuses,intheirearlylife,willexperiencelessdowntimeformaintenance
Basedonthebatterydepletionmodelsdescribedintable7.1,trickle-chargede-busescanservice334weekdayblocks,butonly33onSaturdayand22onSunday.Itisevenpossibletocreatemoreweekendblockopportunitiesforthesebusesbysplittingsomeofthelongerblocksintoportionsthatthetechnologyiscapableofservicing,buttheredesignofblocksisbeyondthescopeofthisproject.
En-routechargede-busespotentialEn-routechargingenablesbusestostayontheroadmuchlonger.Therearelessthan10BlocksoutoftheWestwoodGaragethatanen-routechargedbuscouldnotcompletebasedontheinfrastructurescenariodescribedinsection7.3.6.
7.3.2 Interlining
Interliningisusedtomaketheoverallfleetutilizationmoreefficientbyhavingabuscovermorethanonerouteduringitsblock.Interliningisirrelevanttothetrickle-chargedbuses,astheydonotrequireanyinfrastructureontheroad.Butchargingstationsforen-routechargede-busesareusuallypositionedattransitcentres,thereforerequiringblockassignmentstobedonewiththelimitationsofthevehiclesinmind,ascertainroutesmaynotbeserviceablebytrickle-chargedbuses.
Inthisanalysis,ablockisconsideredaviableassignmentforanen-routechargedbusonlywhenalloftheroutesonthatblockhaveaTransitCentreequippedwithachargingstation.
7.3.3 BlockAssignmentStrategyandDutyCycle
Duringthefieldtrial,bothBYDandNewFlyerweretestedbythecity’stoughesthillsfullyloaded,andinwinterconditions.Neitherbusshowedperceptibledifficultyclimbingthesehills.Giventhisperformance,MARCONconcludesthatthereisnorouteinthecitythate-busesareincapableofdriving,noristherealikelihoodthatsucharoutewillbedesignedinthefuture.
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Ase-busescandeliversignificantoperationalcostsavingscomparedtodieselbuses(Section9),itisadvantageoustoassigne-busestothelongestblocksthattheirrangesarecapableofservicing.OuranalysisofeachWestwoodgarageservicedblock,ofthenumberofkilometresdrivenandthetimeatwhichthebusesleaveandreturntothegarageisknown(Appendix2).Basedontheresultsofthefieldtrials,MARCONcalculated:
• Theamountofdieselfuelrequiredbythelatestmodeldieselbusesinservice;• Theamountofelectricityrequiredbybothtypesofe-buses;• AbaselineforGHGemissionsfromthedieselbuses;• TheamountofGHGemissionsattributabletotheelectricityconsumedbye-buses;• ThereturntogarageSoC;and,• Theamountoftimeavailabletoreplenishtrickle-chargede-busesatthegarage.
Trickle-chargede-busesInordertoestablishthemaximumin-servicerangeofthesevehicles,thelongest40morningblocksandthelongest40afternoonblocksthetrickle-chargede-busescouldhandlewereassigned.MARCON'sselectionofblockswasbasedontheamountoftimereturninge-busesassignedtomorningblockswouldhaveforrechargingbeforebeingsentontheirafternoonruns.ThemorningblocksselectedinthismodelcommonlyleavetheWestwoodgaragearound06:00hours,andreturnaround09:20hours.Theafternoonblocksgenerallydepartaround15:15hourstoreturnatapproximately21:30hours.
Onaverage,theseassignmentsprovidetheopportunityforabout360minutesofchargingafterthemorningrun,andapproximately500minutesofchargingatnight.Usingadedicated60kWchargerforeachbus,thereissufficientchargingtimebothbetweenthemorningandafternoonblocks(83chargingminutesrequired)andovernight(178chargingminutesrequired)forthebusestoleavethegaragefullychargedeverydayonallassignedblocks.
Usingthetargetedblocks,eachtrickle-chargedbuscouldmaximallydriveupto57,800km/year.TheusagepatternsuppliedbyETScallsforupto59,000kmofserviceinyear2.Thiswillbeachievablewithtrickle-chargede-busesasthedowntimerequiredformaintenanceinthebuses’earlylifeisnomorethan15%.
7.3.4 Externalitiesassociatedwiththeuseoftrickle-chargedbuses
EPCORprovidedMARCONwithestimatesofcurrent(2015)andfuture(2020and2025)loadforalloftheETSgarages.Table7.3describesthesubstationassignedthenewWestwoodfacilityandtheestimateofavailablepowerthatcouldbededicatedtochargingstations.Theestimateincludesaprojectthatwilladdanother100ampsofavailablecapacitytothesiteat600Volts.Availablecurrentsuggeststhatupto44concurrentchargingstationscanoperateunderthiscondition,andifanautomatedswitchgearwasinstalledtotakeadvantageofthechargingequipmentavailabilityratio,upto121busescanbepotentiallychargedunderperfectconditionspernight.
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Table7.3Substationcapacitylimitations
2015 2020
Division CircuitLim
it
2015
Sum
merPeakLoad
ing
AvailableAm
ps
2020
Sum
merPeakLoad
ing
AvailableAm
ps
BYD60
kWCha
rgingStations
#BY
D60
kWCha
rgingStations
NewWestwoodGarage(asplanned) 316 176 140 184 132 47 44Source:EPCOR,2016.
7.3.5 Externalitiesassociatedwiththeuseofen-routechargede-buses
TheWinnipegTransitCorporationhasbeenusingtwoNewFlyeren-routechargede-busesoperatingonthedowntown-airportrunforthepast16months.TheconfigurationofthetechnologydeployedinWinnipeghasbeenusedinthecalculationsofthisstudy’sbatterydepletionandblockanalysisforlackofthisequipmentintheETSfieldtrial.ThebusperformancesusedforourcalculationsarehoweverfromtheNFIe-bustestedinEdmonton.
Thetechnicalconstraintlimitingthemaximumnumberofbusesutilizingen-routechargingisthenumberofchargingstationsthatcanreasonablybedeployedforthistaskandhowefficientlytheycanbeutilizedwithoutaffectingservicedelivery.Ourcalculationsarebasedontheassumptionsthateachbuswillbenefitfroma5-minutechargeatarapidchargingstation.MARCONassumedautilizationrateofonly75%,resultinginnomorethan8busesperhourhavingaccesspercharger.
Theinfluenceontime-of-dayavailabilityofchargingstationsassociatedwithinterliningwasnotstudiedasitexceedsthescopeofthisstudy.Inordertocharge40e-busesinserviceatanygiventime,8en-routerapidchargingstationsarerequired.Theywouldbelocated66at:
• 1station–JasperPlaceTC• 1station–ColiseumTC• 1station–BelvedereTC• 1station–EastClareviewTC• 1station–WestClareviewTC• 1station–NorthgateTC• 1station–EauxClairesTC• 1station–CastleDownsTC
Theen-routechargingstrategyassuggestedabovepermitsmostofthelongestblocksoutofthegaragetobeassignedtoe-buses.Eachbusdoes,however,requireaccesstoachargerforon
66 Thescopeofthisstudydoesnotprovideforananalysisofthefeasibilityofinstallingrapidchargingstationsatthelocationsindicatedherein.
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average4-6minutesperhour.Conveniently,thistimerequirementislargelybuiltintotheBlockschedule,withlayoversatatransitcentreofapproximatelythesamefrequencyanddurationalreadybuiltintoeachroute.Interliningcanalsohavetheaddedbenefitofanextendedlayoverasabusshiftsfromroute-to-routedependingontheblock,therebyprovidingadditionalchargeravailability.
TheanalysisofWestwood’sblockssuggeststhatusingthisrapidchargingequipment,ETScoulddeploymorethan40e-busesassignedtothemajorityofthelongestblocksoutofthegarage.Iftheutilizationrateofen-routechargingstationsreached75%,thesameen-routecharginginfrastructurecouldserviceanadditional16buses.
Assumingthatwhene-busesreturntothegarage,theiraverageSoCis69%,toppingupeache-busto80%ofitsbatterynominalcapacitywouldrequirealittlelessthan5minutes.Asinglerapidchargercantheoreticallyperformthistask,butequippingthegaragewithasecondunitwouldallowtheservicecrewtousethesameroutineaswiththedieselbuses.Alternatively,thesee-busescouldbetoppedupatthefirsttransitcentrestheyencounterontheirblockbysimplyadding5minutestotheblocks.Thiswouldhavelessthana1%impactontheaverageassignedblocklength(1034minutes).Inthiscase,atricklechargerwillberequiredatthegaragetohandlecasesofself-depletion(seelexiconinAppendix1).
EPCORalsoprovidedforward-lookingpowercapacityandpowerutilisationestimatesfortheTransitCentrelocations.Allidentifiedlocationshavesufficientpoweravailabletoinstallatleasttwo300kWhrapidchargingstationsasEastandWestClareviewwoulddrawpowerfromtheWestClareviewTC.Thisanalysissuggeststhatnoadditionalsubstationswouldberequiredtobebuilttosatisfytheimplementationofthistechnology,andthatthereissignificantopportunitytoexpandbeyond40busesinthefuture.
Table7.4TransitCentrechargingpotential
Division CircuitLimit
2015SummerPeakLoading
AvailableAmps
2020SummerPeakLoading
AvailableAmps
#NewFlyer300kWChargingStation
NorthgateTransitCentre 380 333 47 346 34 3.9
ColiseumTransitCentre
380 319 61 305 75 5.0
BelvedereTransitCentre 310 145 165 250 60 4.0
EastClareviewTransitCentre 0.0
WestClareviewTransitCentre
380 345 35 279 101 6.7
EauxClairesTransitCentre
380 262 118 272 108 7.2
CastleDownsTransitCentre 380 332 48 345 35 2.3
JasperPlaceTransitCentre 380 225 155 234 146 9.7
Source:EPCOR,2016.
Thiscapabilitydoescomeatacapitalcostasshowninsection9.2.2.WhilethepriceofaBYDe-busincludesitstricklechargingsystem,transitpropertiesmustpurchaserapid-chargingstationsseparately.En-routechargingsystemsservemultiplebuses(5-12each).
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7.4 OtherexternalitiesInits2016budget,theFederalGovernmentannounceditsintentiontoinvestintransitinfrastructure.Intotal,thisbudgetcommitted$347MtotheprovinceofAlbertaandEdmontonwilllikelyreceivealargeshareofthesefundsastheyareallottedonthebasisofridership.
Fundinghasbeenearmarkedforprojectsthatincreasedriderdensity,andbenefittheenvironment.ETS’sValleyLineLRTprojectsatisfiestheserequirements,aspotentiallywouldanelectricbusdeployment.Oneadvantageofane-busproposalisthatETShasanaturalprocurementcycleplannedin2017fornewbuses,anddieselbuseswillnotlikelyqualifyforthisfederalfundingopportunity.
Despitethisfavourablesituation,thebusinesscasepresentedinsection9doesnottakeanycontributiontotheimplementationprojectfromeitherthefederalorothersource.
7.5 KeyfindingsExternalitiesassociatedwithchargingprincipallyconcerntheamountofpoweravailableatspecificlocationsatboththegaragesandtransitcentreswherechargingequipmentwillbelocated.TodeterminehowabuswillfunctionallyoperatewithinETS’sexistingblockstructure,everyblockassignedoutofthegaragewasevaluatedtodeterminewhetherane-buswouldbecapableofcompletingtheblock.Suitableblockswererankedbydistancewiththepreferredassignmentrankedbythelongestdistancetravelled.
Fromanexternalitiesviewpoint,thereareadvantagestoeache-bustechnology.En-routechargedbusescanbededicatedtothelongerblocks.Thisissignificantbecausethemoredistanceane-buscovers,thegreaterfinancialbenefitityieldscomparedtoitsdieselfuelledcounterpart.Themostsignificantadvantageofdistributedchargingstrategiesfromariskmitigationperspectiveisthattherearemorephysicalconnectionstotheelectricalgrid,thusthereisgreaterredundancyintheinfrastructuresystem.Forinstance,ifasinglesubstationweretofailinadistributednetwork,anen-routechargedbuswouldstillmostoftenhave2-3otherTransitCentrestochargeat.Interliningactuallyreducesriskinanen-routescenario.However,ifthesubstationupstreamoftheGaragewastofail,everythingdependentuponitdoesaswell.
Asfortricklecharging,itsmainbenefitisthelowerinitialinvestmentrequired.Charginginfrastructurewouldbelocatedinonefacility.Addingchargingstationstothisfacilitywillnotrepresentasubstantialinvestmentcomparedtothecostofmodifyingeighttransitcentresinadditiontotheplannedgarage.Tricklechargingatasinglelocationwillalsominimizethedisruptionoftrafficinthecitythatwillinevitablyresultfromthemodificationofthetransitcentres.
Also,distributingthechargingprocessofbusesthroughoutthecityhasmanypositivebenefitsforthecity’selectricalinfrastructure,deliveringEPCORwithabetterdistributionoftheadditionalloadoveritsexistingpowergrid.ThiscanprovideopportunitiesforEPCORtoimprovethereturnontheirinfrastructureinvestment.
Creatingadditionaldemandforelectricitymightalsospurtherenewalofenergyproductionequipment,andpotentiallytheinstallationofgreatercapacitywithinthecity.
Albertahasnotexperiencedasignificantdeploymentofelectricvehicles.UtilitiesandAESOhavethereforenotdevelopedprojectsormodifiedtheirdemandforecastswithelectricvehicles(EVs)
7:10
inmind.ETScouldbethecatalystforatransportationelectrificationstrategycitywide.EPCORandtheCityshouldworkcollaborativelytodevelopapolicyandinfrastructureplansthatanticipatehowelectricalenergydemandwillgrowinresponsetoemergingEVtechnologies,andariseinconsumerconfidenceinhowanelectricvehiclecanmeettheirtransportationneeds.Bycreatingtheseplans,therewillbemoreopportunityforcapacitybuildingwithintheratebase,whichwillreduceprojectspecificcosts.ConsumercomfortwithEVswillalsopotentiallyeasestakeholderconcernswhenregulatedprojectsworktheirwaythroughtheapprovalprocess.
Finally,theadoptionofEVsbytheirmunicipalgovernmentsendsastrongandpositivesignaltocitizensregardingthistechnology.Itwillencouragethepopulationtoconsider,andeventuallyadoptEVsinawiderfashion.ThiswillhaveameasurableimpactonthecarbonfootprintofEdmonton.
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8 Environmentalimpactofe-busesatETS
8.1 MethodologyTheGHGintensityofAlberta’sgridisexpectedtodecreaseovertimeasolderand“dirtier”powerplantsaredecommissioned.Toprojectafuturegridintensity,MARCONextrapolatedutilizationofinstalledcapacitybasedonAlberta’s2014electricityproductionreports67andAESO’slongtermoutlook68estimates,bothfutureinstalledcapacitiesandtotaldemandinyears2019,2024,and2034.
AESOalsoprojectspowergenerationscenariosthatincludeMainGrowth,LowGrowth,EnvironmentalShiftandEnergyTransformation.UsingthemainoutlookAESOscenario,thegridintensitywouldbeexpectedtodropfrom0.81TCO2
e-/MWhin2014to0.46TCO2e-/MWhin
2034.Thisanticipatedimprovementwouldhaveresultedmainlyfromthe2012Federalregulationregardingcoal-firedpowerplantsthatdecreesthedecommissioningofcoal-firedplantsnolaterthan45yearsfromtheircommissioningdate.Inaddition,theuseofrenewableenergy,cogenerationandgas-firedpowerplantsbyutilities,oilsandscompaniesandpetroleumrefiningindustrieswillalsocontributetoreducingthegrid’sintensity.
Table8.1Year2013gridintensity
InstalledCapacity(MW)
%oftotal
capacityGHG
t/MWhUtilisation
rateProduction(MWh/year)
GHG(TCO2e/year)
Coal 6271 42% 1.20 81% 44441574 53329888Cogeneration 4245 28% 0.42 61% 22683582 9527104CombinedCycle 843 6% 0.42 43% 3175412 1333673SimpleCycle 804 5% 0.55 33% 2288988 1258943Hydro 894 6% - 24% 1840388 -Wind 1459 10% - 27% 3476388 -Other 423 3% - 66% 2430795 -Total 14939
0.81 80337128 65449609
Source:AESO2014Long-TermOutlook,GovernmentofAlbertaElectricityStatistics.
InNovember2015,theProvincialGovernmentindicatedthatAlbertawillbancoalpowerplantscompletelyby2030.Thepolicywillforcecoal-generatingunitsthatwerestilloperatingintheAESOmodelin2030toclose“prematurely”.TheProvincealsoindicateditsintentiontohaveupto30%renewableinstalledcapacity.Tomodeltheimpactofthispolicy,MARCONusedacombinationofAESO’sEnvironmentalShiftandTransformativescenarios(describedinFigure8.2).Inthismodel,coalhasbeendecommissionedandproductionofelectricityhasshiftedtonaturalgasandrenewableformsofenergy.Utilizationratesofrenewablesareexpectedtoremainthesamebecausetheyarelimitedbynature,whilstgasgenerationisincreasedtomakeupforthelostcoalcapacity.Thenetresultofthispolicyisafurthergridintensityreductiontoapproximately0.37TCO2
e-/MWhby2034.
67 http://www.energy.alberta.ca/electricity/682.asp.68 Source:AESO2014long-termoutlook,AESO,2014.
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Table8.2Projected2034gridintensity(withoutcoal)
InstalledCapacity(MW)
%oftotal
capacityGHG
t/MWhUtilisation
rateProduction(MWh/year)
GHG(TCO2e/year)
Coal 0 0% 1.05 0% - -Cogeneration 7527 30% 0.42 80% 52749216 22154671CombinedCycle 7471 30% 0.42 70% 45812172 19241112SimpleCycle 2939 12% 0.55 50% 12872820 7080051Hydro 1894 8% - 24% 3981946 -Wind 3777 15% - 27% 8933360 -Other 1343 5% - 66% 7764689 -Total 24951 MW 0.37 132114203 48475834Source:MARCONcalculationsbasedonAESOdatafromAESO2014Long-TermOutlook,andGoAPolicyannouncedinNov.2015.
Thereisthereforeamarkeddifferencebetweenthecurrentstatus,thecurrentlyregulatedshutdownscheduleandthenew(yettobeenacted)policyasfigure8.2shows.
Figure8.1Albertapowergridforecastedintensity
Source:AESO2014Long-TermOutlookandMARCON,2016.
0,81
0,68
0,63
0,47
0,46
0,37
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
2014 2019 2024 2034
AverageGridIntensity(t/MWh)
AESO2011 2015GoAPolicy
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8.2 Carbonfootprintofdieselbuses
Indeterminingtheemissionfactorofdieselfuelbothdirectcombustionandupstreamemissionsfromtheextraction,refinement,andstorageofpetroleumtomakedieselfuelareconsidered.TheSpecifiedGasEmittersRegulation(SGER)protocol69statesthattheemissionfactortousefordieselcombustionis2.7171kgCO2
e-/litre70,andupstreamemissionsis0.9579kgCO2e-/litre71,
therebytakingintoconsiderationtheuseofbiodiesel.Combinedemissionsfromallsourcesareequalto3.675kgCO2
e-/litre.
In2015,theETSfleetof40-footdieselbusesdrove42millionkilometres,therebyconsumingalmost23millionlitresofdieselfuel.Theresultingaveragefuelefficiencyforthewhole40-footbusfleetis54.6L/100km.
ConsequentlytheETS40-footbusfleet(841buses)emitted61,230TCO2e-fromthecombustion
ofdiesel,andafurther23,300TCO2e-fromupstreamemissionsassociatedwithitsproduction.
UnlessagreateramountofbiodieselismixedintothedieselfuelpurchasedbyETS,thefuelwilllikelyhavethesameapproximateemissionfactor20yearsfromnowasitdoestoday.Astherehasbeennoindicationingovernmentpolicyannouncementsinthepastthreeyearstoincreasethecurrentfederalmandateof2%biodiesel,ithasbeenassumedthattoday’semissionfactorfordieselwillremainthesame.
IntheEdmontonfieldtrial,the2013Xcelsiorbusesachievedanaveragefuelefficiencyof49L/100km.DataprovidedbyETSforcalendaryear2015indicatesthatthese2013Xcelsiorbusesaredrivenanaverageof49,497km/year.
Forcomparativepurposes,theSteeringCommitteesuppliedMARCONwiththe20-yearusagepatternshownintable8.3andfigure9.1later.Thisusagepatternresultsinanaveragedistanceof49,450km/yearforcomparativepurposes.Atthemeasuredconsumptionrate,acontemporarymodeldieselbusdrivingthatdistancewillgenerateemissionsof89TCO2
e-peryearor1,781TCO2
e-initslifetime.
8.3 CarbonfootprintofelectricbusesBecausetheGHGintensityofAlberta’sgridwilldecreaseprogressivelyuntil2030,thecarbonfootprintofelectricbuseswilldiminishovertimeaswell.Basedonthe2013Albertagridintensityfactor,ane-busoperatingtodaywillemitapproximately38-44%lessCO2
e-(fromthepowergenerators)thanitsdieselequivalent.By2034,thee-buswillemit72-74%lessCO2
e-.
Thefollowingtableshowstheyearlyemissionsofbothtrickle-chargedanden-routechargedbusesbasedontheusagepatternprovidedbyETS.Yearlyelectricityconsumptionofbothtypesofe-busesisalsodisplayedalongwiththeemissionsresultingfromelectricityusageanddieselfuelusageforspaceheating.
69 http://open.alberta.ca/dataset/c1c50abd-c082-4b2f-a119-0fc0a3b1caa7/resource/31b488e3-1ee8-463d-91aa-fb7df765c1d6/download/2013-02-ProtocolFuelSwitchingMobile.pdf.
70 Idem,page79.71 Idem,page78.
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Table8.3TotallifeGHGEmissionsofe-buses
Year
BYD NFI
km/year kWh TCO2e-
/kWhElectricityTCO2
e-DieselTCO2
e- kWh TCO2e-/kWh
ElectricityTCO2
e-DieselTCO2
e-2017 57,000 71,250 0.00081 57.7 103 78,660 0.00081 63.7 1032018 59,000 73,750 0.00081 59.7 106 81,420 0.00081 66.0 1062019 58,000 72,500 0.00081 58.7 104
80,040 0.00081 64.8 104
2020 54,000 67,500 0.00068 45.9 97 74,520 0.00068 50.7 972021 54,000 67,500 0.00068 45.9 97 74,520 0.00068 50.7 972022 54,000 67,500 0.00068 45.9 97
74,520 0.00068 50.7 97
2023 54,000 67,500 0.00068 45.9 97 74,520 0.00068 50.7 972024 52,000 65,000 0.00068 44.2 94 71,760 0.00068 48.8 942025 50,000 62,500 0.00046 28.8 90
69,000 0.00046 31.7 90
2026 50,000 62,500 0.00046 28.8 90 69,000 0.00046 31.7 902027 48,000 60,000 0.00046 27.6 86 66,240 0.00046 30.5 862028 45,000 56,250 0.00046 25.9 81
62,100 0.00046 28.6 81
2029 45,000 56,250 0.00046 25.9 81 62,100 0.00046 28.6 812030 45,000 56,250 0.00037 20.8 81 62,100 0.00046 28.6 812031 44,000 55,000 0.00037 20.4 79
60,720 0.00046 27.9 79
2032 44,000 55,000 0.00037 20.4 79 60,720 0.00046 27.9 792033 44,000 55,000 0.00037 20.4 79 60,720 0.00046 27.9 792034 44,000 55,000 0.00037 20.4 79
60,720 0.00037 22.5 79
2035 44,000 55,000 0.00037 20.4 79 60,720 0.00037 22.5 792036 44,000 55,000 0.00037 20.4 79 60,720 0.00037 22.5 79Avge 49,450 61,813 0.000536 34.2 89 68,241 0.000536 38.8 89
TLC 989,000 1,236,250 684 1,781 1,364,820 776.8 1781
Source:MARCON.2016
WhenusedaccordingtotheusagepatterndefinedbyETS(drivingonaverage49,450km)aBYDwillgenerate684TCO2
e-andtheNFI,776TCO2e-respectivelyinlifetimeemissionsassociated
withupstreamemissionsfrompowergeneration.
8.4 CarbonfootprintreductionOnacomparativebasis,thelatestavailablemodelofXcelsiordieselbusrunningonaverage49,450kmperyearfor20yearswouldemit89TCO2
e-/yearor1,761TCO2e-duringits20-yearlife.
Asdieselheatersarepreferableone-buses,thefuelconsumptionoftheseheatersreportedinthetrialwasapproximately2litresper100km.IfitwasassumedthatthisaverageconsumptionwouldapplytothemonthsofDecemberandJanuary,but75%ofthataveragewasusedforthemonthsofNovemberandFebruaryand50%forthemonthsofOctoberMarch,andApril,Asaresult,e-buseswouldburn412litresofdieselperyearandthereforeproduceemissionsof1.51TCO2
e-/year.
So,usingadieselheatedBYDbustoreplaceadieselbuswouldreducethebus’carbonfootprintby60%over20yearswhilstreplacingadieselbusbyaNFIwouldreducetheGHGfootprintby56%respectively.
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8.5 CarbonLevyAlthoughthepriceofcarbonismarketdriven,thereisaregulatedceilingpriceofemissionsinAlberta.Between2007and2015,thisceilingpricewassetat$15/tonne.Theceilingpricechangedto$20asofJanuary1,2016,andto$30asofJanuary1,2017.
Consequently,thecarbonlevyimposedbytheProvinceofAlbertaondieselfuelhasbeensetat5.35¢/litrefor2017and8.03¢/litrefor201872.
Calculationsofthefinancialimpactofthecarbonlevyareprovidedinsection9.
8.6 OtherenvironmentalexternalitiesTherearemanyotherenvironmentalopportunitiesthatarequantifiable,butconsideredbeyondthescopeofthisproject.Forinstance,accidentaldischargesofdieselandoil,duetoequipmentfailureandregularuse,depositspetroleumproductontothesurfaceofcityroads.ThesechemicalseventuallymaketheirwaytotheSaskatchewanRiverviathestormsewernetwork,andthereisanimpacttotheenvironment.Anelectricbuswouldnotleakthesefluids,butthereisnofinancialcostsavingstotheCitybecausethereisn’taremediationprogramforthispollutant.
ThetailpipeemissionsfromdieselbuseshavebeenimprovingbutstillincludesmoggeneratingNOxandSOx,aswellasparticulatemattersthatareharmfultopeople.Thesechemicalsandotherelementsindieselexhaustalsoproducenoxiousodoursthatareunpleasantbutchallengingtoattributeasocietaleconomiccost.Thetransitridersurveys(Section4)demonstratedthatapproximately80%oftheriderssurveyedindicatedthattheyperceivedthee-bustobebetterormuchbetterthanadieselbus.
Upstreamemissionsthatoriginateatcoal-firedpowerplantshaveconsiderablenegativehealtheffectstothosewithintheirair-shed,whichincludesthewesternedgesofEdmontonthataredownwindofthepowerplantsintheWabamumarea.TheProvince’scommitmenttoclosedowncoal-firedpowerby2030ispartlymotivatedbytheintentiontoendthesehealth-harmingsourcesofemissions.
Finally,thenoisepollutioncreatedbydieselenginesisreducedconsiderablywhenusinge-buses.
8.7 KeyfindingsElectricityinAlbertaisconsideredtohavethehighestGHGintensityinCanada,butitwillgetbetterovertime.Ane-busiscurrently38%to44%betterthanitsdieselequivalent,andisexpectedtobecome72%to74%betterby2034.Thecurrentpolicytoendcoal-firedpowerin2030,greaterdependencyongaselectricalgeneration,andthegoaltohaveuptoonethirdofAlberta’spowerbeingrenewableareresponsibleforthisgain.
Theuseofdieselheatersonboarde-buseswilluse4%ofthedieselfuelcurrentlyconsumedbydieselbusesatmost,irrespectiveofwhiche-busisequippedwiththeseheaters.Consideringthe
72 Source:GovernmentofAlberta,http://www.alberta.ca/climate-carbon-pricing.cfm,2016.
8:6
rangereductionimplicationsofanelectricallyheatedbus,dieselheatedbusesareconsideredmoredesirabledespitetheirsmallimpactontheenvironment.
Whetherupstreamemissions,orthosefromthetailpipe,e-busesareabetterchoicefortheenvironmentthanthecurrentdieselfleet.Investmentinelectricvehiclesimprovesairqualityinthecity,andintheatmosphere.TheelectrictransportationmodalshiftisexpectedtoaccelerateasthecostofbatteriesdecreasesevenfurtherandEVperformanceimprovesevenmore.ETScanbeacatalystforthistransitionbydemonstratinghowelectricvehiclescanoperateinEdmonton’swinterclimate,andbycausingtheutilitiesandregulatorstoplanfortheinfrastructuremodificationsthatarerequiredfortheiruse.
9:1
9 Thebusinesscasefore-busesinEdmonton
MARCONwasrequiredto“analyzetheeconomicimpactofshiftingtoelectricbusesusingtheirproprietarylifecyclecostforecastingmodel.Theanalysiswillcomparedieselandelectricbusesoncapitalcosts,facilityupgrades(electricalcapacityandother),andoperationalcostsincludingthecostofelectricityandfuel,maintenanceandothercosts.”[1]
Thelevelofprecisioninbusinesscasecalculationsdependsonthequalityoftheworkinghypothesesprovidedtothemodelused.Giventheearlystageoftheelectricbusindustry,lackofcertaintyrelatedtofuelandenergycosts,andashortamountoftimethebuseswereinfieldtrialinEdmonton,thebusinesscaseaccuracyislimitedto±25%.Insomeinstances,inputwasprovideddirectlybytheSteeringCommitteemembersasnotedinthesourcereferencesprovided.Forexample,theanalysisconsideredacquiringandoperating40busesbasedoutofthenewNorthEastGarage,comparingthecostrelatedtoelectricbuseswiththelatestmodelofdieselbusesintheETSfleet(NewFlyerIndustry,Xcelsior2013model).Fortybuseswereselectedasthisrepresentsthepresentscheduleforbusreplacementsinboth2017and2018.
9.1 MethodologyETSandtheFleetServicesbranchoftheCityofEdmontonprovidedMARCONwithalltheinformationrequestedtoestablishareferencecasebasedonthelatestmodelof40’dieselbusesinthefleet(Xcelsior2013model).Wheneverpossible,datafromEdmonton’sfieldtestwithe-buseswasusedbut,giventheshortdurationofthetest,missingdatawassubstitutedby:
• theresultsofevaluationsconductedinothermunicipalities,and/or• Altoonatestresults,and/or• MARCON’steammembersexperiencewithotherelectricbuses,
inordertobuildacostforecastingmodelreflectiveofEdmonton’sownoperatingcharacteristics.
TheSteeringCommitteedirectedMARCONtomakeits“calculationsonthefeasibilityof40buses,withdetailsabouthowthestudyarrivedattheconclusionthatcouldbeextrapolatedtosupportdecision-making”.MARCONwasfurtherinstructedtousethenewNETG(thatwasdesignedasadirectreplacementbuildingoftheWestwoodGarage)asthefacilitythatwouldhostthe40e-buses.Althoughthatbuildinghasnotbeendesignedtohouseelectricbuses,ETSusedalocalarchitectfirm73toappraisethecostofadaptingthisfacility,butwithoutthebenefitofacompletefunctionalanalysis.
ThecalculationswereundertakenusingMARCON’sproprietarylifecyclecostmodelTLCBu$™.
Asthegoalofthisassignmentconsistsofcomparingthethreetechnologies(diesel,en-routechargee-busesandtrickle-chargede-buses),coststhatareidenticalforallthreetechnologiesarenottakenintoconsideration.Forexample,inflationisthesameforall,yearafteryear.Thereisnopointinconsideringthisfactorinacomparativemode.Anotherexampleistheleasecostoftires,whichisthesameforalltypesofbuses.Ontheotherhand,theinterestrateusedfordiscountingwastakenintoconsideration,asthetimingofexpensesisdifferentforthethreetechnologies,e-busesrequiringamoreintenseinitialinvestmentthandieselbuses.
73 Source:MorrisonHershfield,2016.
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9.2 Assumptions–Capitalcosts
9.2.1 Buspricesforecast(electricanddiesel)
Thepricesforbuses,aswellasthepriceofkeycomponentssuchasthereplacementtheenergystoragesystem,usedinourcalculationswereprovidedbybusmanufacturersforthemostpart.
Table9.1Costofbuses
DieselBuses
Trickle-chargedBuses
En-routechargedBuses
Grosspriceofbuses(inCAD) $600000 $949200 $1300000Mid-liferebuild $128755 $248627 $169075Residualvalueatlife’send–buses(%oforiginalcost)
0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Sources:ETS,BYD,NewFlyerIndustries,ETSandMARCON,2016.
Thecostsofrebuildingdieselbusesatmid-lifearewelldocumentedbyETSandhistoricallyamounttoatotalof$128755.Thisamountcomprisesofengineandtransmissionrebuildorreplacement(includingturbocompressor)at$64534andbodyworkat$64221.Theamountofbodyworktobeperformedonallbuses(dieselandelectric)willremainthesame,regardlessoftheirpowertrain.Attheendof2015,ETSimplementedanewrebuildingpolicywherebycertainpartsarenolongerreplacedasapreventivemeasure.Thiswillresultinasmallercapitalcostbutmayincreasethecostofmaintenanceinthesecondhalfofthebuslifeassomefailingpartswillneedreplacement.MARCONconservativelyelectedtorelyonhistoricaldataratherthanexpectedoutcomesfromthisnewpolicyforitscalculations.
Thecostofrebuildinge-busesatmid-lifeisnotavailablefromanysourcenoe-bushasreachedthatstageoflifeyet(prototypesexcepted).ThecosthasthereforebeencalculatedbyMARCONbasedonalongexperiencewithtrolleybusesandusingadifferentialapproach.Thismeansthatthedetailedcostofrebuildingadieselpowertrainwasusedasastartingpointandvariouscomponentsandtaskswereaddedorsubtractedforeachofthetwoe-busmodelsworkasrequiredbytheirrespectivedesigns.DetailedcalculationsareshowninAppendix3.Thefinalresultshowsacostof$184406fortrickle-chargedbusesand$104854foren-routechargedbusesinadditiontothecostofbodywork.
Theseestimatesweredevelopedconsideringthatonemanufacturer(BYD)suggeststhattheirbatterypackwilllast20yearswithonly1%degradationperyearofservice.MARCONhasconservativelyestimatedthatthebatterypackwouldbereplacedattheendofitswarranty(12years).Norevenuewasconsideredforthepotentialsaleorreuseofbatterypacks,nordidanyexpenseenterthecalculationstotakeapossiblecostofdisposalintoaccount.
9.2.2 Facilities
Housingthereferencefleetof40dieselbusesattheNETGwillnotaffectthecurrentcostestimateforthenewfacilityasithasbeendesignedforthisverypurpose.
Table9.2Costoffacilitiesupgrade(inclusiveofchargingstations)
DieselBuses
Trickle-chargedBuses
En-routechargedBuses
Facilitiesupgradecost(inCAD) $0 $750000 $1154992Sources:MorrisonHershfield(BYD)andMARCON(NFI),2016.
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AccordingthearchitectretainedbytheCityofEdmonton,theestimatedcosttoaddtherequiredelectriccapacityandcomponentstohouse40e-busesatthisfacilityis$750,000.Thecostofthetrickle-chargersisincludedinthepriceofthebusquotedbythemanufacturerwhileaddingafast-chargertotheNETGwouldaddapproximately$405thousandtothecostofthefacility.AchargingstationshouldbeinstalledattheNETGtorechargeunitscomingoutofmaintenance74ortotopupunitsiftheneedarises75.
Thesetrickle-chargedunitsbeingverysimple,MARCONbudgetedonly$100/yearperunitfortheirmaintenance.Foren-routechargedvehicles(wherechargingwouldoccuratpantographchargingstationslocatedattransitstations),thecostofmaintainingthefastchargingstationsishigher.
Additionalinvestmentsarerequiredforen-routechargedbuses.Inordertoservicethe40e-busesinthiscasestudy,eight(8)transitstationswillrequirerapidchargers.SincetheNFIe-buswasusedasthereferenceinthiscasesimulation,theNFIfastchargerinstalledinWinnipegrecentlywasusedasabasecaseforestimatinghowmuchthesestationswouldcosttheCityofEdmonton.Table9.3providesthecostbreakdownofasinglechargingstationcosting$845990,installationincluded.
Table9.3Estimatedcostofen-routechargingstations
InCdn$Charger(USD$320000) $404992Transformer $40000Cabling $80000Civilworks $180000Engineering&Projectmanagement $140998
Source:MARCONbasedonWinnipegTransitCorporationinformation,2016.
Chargingstationmaintenancehasbeenevaluatedat1%oftheirinitialvalueperyearand,inourcalculations,conservativelyremainsconstantforthedurationoftheplanninghorizon.Notethatifthebatterytechnologyselectedallows,atricklechargercouldreplacethefastchargerplannedfortheNETGatlessthanhalfthecostofarapidcharger.
Afunctionalanalysisofthetransitcentreswasnotincludedinthescopeofthisstudy.Someorallofthemmaynotlendthemselveseasilytotheadditionofacharginginfrastructureintheircurrentconfiguration.Itislikelythatsomemodificationswillberequiredtoalltransitcentrestoimprovetheflowofamixedfleetofbusesinandoutoftheseareas.
9.3 Assumptions–OperatingcostsETSrequestedthatMARCONforecastthecostofoperatinge-busesusingthecurrentpracticesappliedtothedieselfleet.Thesearenotoptimizedfore-busesandthereforeresultinaveryconservativescenarioforanelectricfleet.
74 E-busesthatareleftunusedexperienceself-discharge.SeeAppendix1formoreinformation.75 Thecostofthatstationcouldbeavoidedifatransitstationequippedwitharapidchargerwaslocatedverynearthegarage.
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9.3.1 Routes
Despitethefactthate-busescantechnicallyoperateonallthecurrentroutesservedbyETS,thechoiceofroutesislimitedbyseveralfactors:
a. Eachgarageservicesspecificroutesandwithall40electricbusesassignedtoaspecificgarage,thee-busfleetistherebylimitedtotheroutesservicedoutofthatgarage.
b. Theen-routechargedbusesrequireacharginginfrastructurethatisusuallylocatedattransitstations.Assignmentofthesee-busesisthereforeconstrainedbytheavailabilityofchargingstationsontheirroutesattheirplannedtimeofarrival.
c. Althoughnotrequiringen-routeinfrastructure,trickle-chargedbuseshaveashorterautonomy(range)thandieselbuses.Inthecurrentblockstructure,theycannotbeassignedtoroutesorblocksthatexceedtheirsafeoperatingrange.
TheoptimizationofETS’sblockstructureisbeyondthescopeofMARCON’sassignmentandcalculationsareperformedonthebasisofthecurrentblocstructurewithoutanychangesoverthe20-yearlifeofthebustomakeafaircomparisonbetweenthethreetechnologies.ETSwouldlikelyadjustschedulingtobetteralignwiththecapabilitiesoftheassets.
9.3.2 Dutycycleandoperatingconditions
Dutycyclehasanimportantimpactontheperformanceofallbuses.Forexample,heavytrafficforcesbusestostopandgoveryoften.Asalargequantityofenergyisrequiredtoovercomeinertia,thistypeofdutycycle(lowspeed,manystops)causesthefuelconsumptionofdieselbusestoincreasesignificantly.Ontheotherhand,electricbusesareequippedwithakineticenergyrecoverysystemthatregeneratesenergyfrombraking.Theefficiency76ofsuchsystemscanreachover65%77andcanresultinextendingtherangeofbatteriesbyalmost40%78.E-busesarethereforemuchlessaffectedbyasimilardutycycle.Giventheshortperiodofthefieldtest,fewroutesanddutycyclesweretested.Datafromthefieldtestandothersourcesdoesnotallowforaconclusivequantitativeanalysisoftheimpactofdutycycleonbusperformance.
Thedesignandcurbweightofthebusestestedresultinareductionofmaximumpassengercapacityatcrushloadscomparedtodieselbuses.Theoretically,thiscouldmeanthatmoreelectricbuseswouldberequiredtoprovidethesamelevelofserviceduringpeakservicehours.Aftercarryingoutananalysis,ETSconcludedthatthemaximumcapacityofe-busesintermsofnumberofpassengersandweightrestrictionswillnotbeasignificantissue.Furthermore,batterymanufacturersareimprovingtheirproductsataveryfastrateandtheybelievethattheweightcapacitylimitationswillbeeliminatedinfuturegenerationsofelectricbuses.
Theannualdistancestobeassignedtoe-busesweredeterminedbytheCityandETSbasedontheactualperformanceofdieselbussesbasedonhistoricalaveragesfortheETSfleet.Thereferencedistancesperyearwereprovidedasfollows:
76 Definedastheratiooftheactualregeneratedenergytothetotalkineticenergythatcanberegenerated.77 Source:RegenerativeBrakingSystemforSeriesHybridElectricCityBus,JunzhiZhang,XinLu,JunliangXueandBosLi,The
WorldElectricVehicleJournal,Vol2,Issue4.78 Source:AnalysisofregenerativebrakingeffecttoimprovefueleconomyforE-REVbusbasedonsimulation,JongdaiChoi,
JongryeolJeong1,Yeong-ilPark,SukWonCha,ProceedingsofEVS28,2015.
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Figure9.1YearlyReferenceDistanceforecastedforDieselBusesinEdmonton
Source:ETS,2016.
ThetotaldistanceforatransitbusinserviceinEdmontonisforecastedtobe989,000kmor49,450kmperyear.ThisiscomparabletoETS’shistoricaldatashowingthat40’busesarerunninganaverageof49,947kmperyear.
9.3.3 Costofenergy(electricityanddiesel)
Giventhatthedevelopmentofaforecastingmodelforthepriceofdieselandelectricityisbeyondthescopeofthisstudy,thepricesofdieselandelectricityweremaintainedatthecurrentlevelforthe20-yearforecastingperiod.BothpriceswereprovidedbytheCityofEdmonton:
• Electricity:11¢perkWhand• Dieselfuel:$0.8631perlitre.
9.3.4 Energyconsumption
Fromabusinesscaseperspective,themaincontributionofthefieldtrialtothebusinesscaseistheenergyconsumptiondata.Thisinformationwasgatheredinwinter,whereconditionsareparticularlydifficultfortransitbusesofalltypes.MARCONselectedtheworstfuel-efficiencyperformanceobservedduringthefieldtrialstobuildEdmonton’sbusinesscase.Despitethelackofextremelycoldweatherduringthefieldtestperiod,theuseoftheenergyconsumptiondataobtainedatthattimeofyearrepresentsaveryconservativeestimateoftheperformanceafleetofe-buseswillachieveduringtherestoftheyearwhenclimateconditionsaremorefavourable.
Theenergyconsumptionbye-busesduringEdmonton’sfieldtrialsisdescribedinsection7:1.25kWh/kmforthetrickle-chargedBYDe-busand1.38kWh/kmfortheNewFlyere-bus.
Thedieselbusesusedforcomparativepurposesconsumed45to49L/100km,comparedtotheaverageof48.53L/100kmforthefleetof2013ExcelsiorDieselbusespurchasedinthesameyear.Thataverageperformanceisusedinourforecasts,asthe40newbusesETSwouldpurchase(ifdieselfuelled)wouldperformatleastaswell.
9.3.5 Environmentalcost
TheannouncedProvincial“CarbonLevy”ontransportationfuelisfactoredinMARCON’scalculations.TheProvinceofAlbertasetat5.35¢/litre(for2017)and8.03¢/litre(for2018)79levyondieselfuel.Intheprojections,MARCONusesthatlatteramountastheprocurementprocess
79 Source:GovernmentofAlberta,http://www.alberta.ca/climate-carbon-pricing.cfm,2016.
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forthevehiclesandtheconstructionofthenewgaragefacilityisunlikelytoresultine-busesbeingputinservicemuchbeforeJanuary2018.Aswiththecostoffuel,thecostoftheCarbonLevyiskeptconstantforthe20yearsoftheforecast.
Thereisnocarbontaxaddedtothecostofelectricityasitisalreadybuiltinthepricebute-buseswillbeconsumingasmallquantityofdieselfuelforspaceheatingpurposes.Amodestcostof$25thousandwillincurredbybothtypesofe-busesforthatpurpose.
9.3.6 Maintenanceandservice(M&S)costs
M&Scostsincludethreecategoriesofcosts:preventivemaintenance,routine(orrunning)maintenanceandservicingthebusesonadailybasis.Thecostofexceptionalrepairs(accidents,vandalism,etc.)isexcludedfromourcalculations.ThecostofmaintainingEdmonton’sentirefleetin2015isusedasthebasisforourcalculations.Whilethelatestbusesmaybemorereliable,theywillageandtheircostofmaintenancewillincreasewithtime.Usingall40’busesprovidesalonghistoryofmaintenancedatatothebusinesscase.M&Scostsfore-busesarecalculatedasavariationfromthedieselfleet,addingandsubtractingitemstothecurrentlistofrunningmaintenance.
Thecostperkilometreisthereforebasedontheaveragedistancerunbya40’businthecourseoftheyearasdescribedintable9.3.
Table9.4Maintenanceandservicecostfor40’busesinEdmonton
PreventivemaintenanceDieselBus E-Bus
(40'fleetaverage) Trickle-charged En-routechargedTotal/km $0.125 $0.094 $0.094Runningmaintenance Total/km $0.613 $0.407 $0.401Servicing Total/km $0.045 $0.045 $0.045Totalmaintenance&servicing
Total$/km $0.783 $0.546 $0.540Sources:ETS(fordieselbuses),2015,andMARCON(fore-buses),2016
Numbersintheabovetablehavebeenroundedto1/10thofacentprecisionandadetailedlistofhowMARCONdeterminedthemaintenancecostsofe-busesisprovidedinAppendix4.
9.3.7 Financialhypotheses
Workinghypothesesregardingthefinancialaspectsofacquiringnewbusesarecommontoallthreetypesofbuses.
Table9.5Miscellaneousassumptions
Financial Discountfactor/interestrate(%) 1.9%*Exchangerate(USD1toCAD)(asofApril19): $1.2656Buslife(years) 20*Mid-lifeoverhaulafter(years) 12*Inflationrate Ignored *Source:ETS,2016.
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9.3.8 Trainingcosts
Trainingisanessentialpartoftheprocessforintroducingnewbustechnologiesintorevenueservice.Busoperators,mechanics,servicepersonsandtrainersneedtobethoroughlytrainedbeforeanewfleetisplacedinservice.Thistrainingcanbeprovidedthroughtheselectedbusmanufacturertotrainallemployeesaffectedbythenewtechnology,includingoperatorandmechanicaltrainersinthecompany.Athirdpartytechnicaltraininginstitutioncanalsoprovideit.Busmanufacturersalsoprovideoperatingandmaintenancemanuals,usuallyprovidedaspartofthecontract.
NewFlyerIndustriesconfirmedthatthemajorityofitsstandardXcelsiorcoursesapplytotheelectricbuses.TheyalsoofferOEMtrainingontheelectricpropulsionsystemandbatteries,whichisn'ttotallydefinedasofyet.Studenthand-outmaterialsareprovidedwitheachcourse.Generally,thepriceoftrainingisincludedinthecostofthebusanditwouldbesubjecttothetermsintheRFPandthenegotiatedcontract.Thelengthoftrainingwoulddependonthescopeoftrainingandsincemostofthenon-electriccomponentsonelectricbusesareverysimilartothosefoundonstandarddieselbuses,itisestimatedtrainingdesignedforETSmechanicswouldtake40to60hours.Similarly,ETStrainerscouldbetrainedwhocouldthentrainmechanics.Operatorfamiliarizationwithelectricbusescouldtakeabouteighthours.
BYDwillprovidetrainingtoclientsanditalsoispartofthepriceofthebus.Theirtrainingpackagescatertooperators,mechanicsandtrainers.BYDispreparedtoprovideasmuchtimeasnecessarytoensuretheclientpersonnelareproperlytrainedtooperatetheirequipmentandwillalsoprovideallthetrainingmaterialsandmanualsrequired80.NoinformationisavailableatBYDregardingthelengthoftrainingforoperators,servicepersonnelandmaintenancestaff.Therefore,thecostoftrainingusedinMARCON’sforecastsisnearlyidenticalforbothtypesofbuses,someadditionaltimehavingbeenprovidedfortrainingoperatorstousedoverheadchargingstationsonen-routechargedbuses.
NAIThasahistoryofprovidingtechnicaltrainingcoursestoETS,themostrecentbeingin2013whentrainingwasprovidedforElectronicsTechnicianswhoweretoworkontheEdmontonLRTsystem.IndiscussionswiththeNAITContinuingEducationDepartmentitwasconfirmedthatNAITwouldbehappytosetupatrainingprogramtogivemechanicscertificationonhighvoltageelectricbussystems81.AnycoursewouldbedevelopedjointlybetweenNAIT,ETSand,ofnecessity,theselectedbusmanufacturer.Thecoursewouldbetailoredtothespecificmodelofbuspurchasedandisestimatedtobebetween40and60hourslong.Thecosttodevelopthisspecializedcoursewouldbeanadditionalone-timecostandwouldtakebetween80and100hoursofcoursedevelopmenttime,estimatedtocostabout$10,000-$15,000.Actualtrainingcouldcostabout$2,000perstudent,dependingonitslength.Definitivecostscouldnotbeprovidedatthetimeofwritingthisreport.
80Source:BYD’sVice-PresidentofSales,10February2016.81Source:NAITDepartmentofContinuingEducation,March2016.
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Table9.6Trainingcosts
Trickle-chargedbuses
En-routechargedbuses
Coursepreparation-operators Providedbymfr. Providedbymfr.
Coursedelivery-operatorhours $6979 $13958
Coursepreparation-service Providedbymfr. Providedbymfr.
Coursedelivery-servicepersonnelhours $544 $544
Coursepreparation-maintenance(flatfee) $15000 $15000
Coursedelivery-maintenance(perstudentfee) $16000 $16000
Coursedelivery-maintenancepersonnel(hours) $37320 $37320
TOTAL $75843 $82822
Source:MARCON,2016
Inadditiontotheactualcostoftraining,overtimecostswouldlikelybeincurredbyETSunlesscollectiveagreementshaveotherprovisions.EstimatingthesecostswasbeyondthescopeoftheassignmentgiventoMARCON.
InadditiontothetrainingrequiredforETSpersonnel,itisveryimportantthatfamiliaritytrainingbeprovidedforemergencyfirstrespondersintheCityofEdmonton.Inthecaseofanaccidentinvolvinganelectricbus,theywillneedtoknowwheretheemergencyhighvoltagepowershut-offswitchislocated.Ifthereisafire,theywillneedtoknowthatrespiratorswillbeneededbecauseifbatteriesarerupturedtheremaybenoxiousfumes.Hereagain,estimatingthesecostswasbeyondthescopeoftheassignmentgiventoMARCON.
9.3.9 Toolingandrelatedcosts
Thebulkoftoolsrequiredtomaintainelectricbusesisverysimilartothoserequiredtomaintaindieselbuses.However,therearesomeuniquetoolsandtestingequipmentthatwillberequiredtomaintaintheelectricbusesastheyhavebatterypacks,invertersandelectricdrivesystems.Anon-exhaustivelistofthesespecialisttools,basedonexperiencewithhybridelectricbusesandtrolleybusesisasfollows:
• Propulsionservicekitapproximately$5,000whichwillincludeddiagnosticinterface/cables,highimpedancemulti-meter,batteryprotectiontools,highvoltagegloves,andmotorbearingre&retools
• Accessoriestoolsapproximately$5,000whichwillincludespecialtoolsforelectricaccessories–HVAC,aircompressor,steering,andcooling
• BatterypackandInverterliftingjigsapproximately$2,000.• Otherbustoolsapproximately$10,000,dependingonmake/modelofbusaxles,brakes,
PLC,body,etc
Anoverheadcrane,orjibcraneforliftingrooftopbatterypacksorothercomponentswillberequiredandMARCONassumeditwouldbeavailableinthenewNETGfacility.Again,basedontrolleyandhybridexperiencebatterypackscanbemadetolastalongtimewithproperheat/voltagemonitoring,andselectedcellreplacementlaterinlife.Aforkliftshouldbeabletoremovesmallerroofcomponentssuchasinverters,andHVACunits.
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Gantryplatformsorprobablyrollingscaffoldplatformswillberequiredforroofaccess.Fallprotectionanchorswillalsoberequiredformaintainersworkingontheroofsoftheelectricbuses.Arollingscaffoldsimilartotheoneinthepicturebelowshouldbeused.
DependingontheETSmaintenancemodel–anelectrical“lab”maybeneededforelectroniccomponentrepair/troubleshooting,or,thisfunctioncanbeoutsourced.
Theincreaseincomplexelectricaltroubleshooting/maintenancethatwillbeneededtomaintainelectricbusesmayneedanElectrical/ElectronicsEngineerortechnicalelectricalsupervisoronstaff.
Table9.7Costbreakdownoftoolingrequired
#required UnitPrice Total
Propulsionservicekit 2 $5000 $10000
BatterypackandInverterliftingjigs 2 $2000 $4000
Rollingscaffold 1 $20000 $20000
Otherbustools 1 $10000 $10000
Totalcostoftooling $44000
Source:MARCON,2016
9.4 LifecyclecostofdieselbusesinEdmonton(referencecase)Thelifecyclecostofdieselbusespresentedinthisreportisnotintendedtobecomplete.Itisproposedasafairbasisforcomparingtheoverallcostofrunningdieselversuselectricbuses.Somecostcategoriesare,andwillremainidenticalforbothtypesofbusesandwerethereforeexcludedfromourcalculations.Forexample,thecostoftireleasingwillnotvaryfromonetypeofbustotheother.Managementoverheadcostbelongtothissamecategoryof“invariable”coststhatcanbeignoredforthepurposeofcomparingdifferenttechnologies.
Table9.4summarizesthebasecaseforcomparativepurposesusingdieselbusesasfollows:theacquisitioncostsarebasedonthelatestNFIXcelsiorbusesasarethefuelcosts.Themaintenancecostsarebasedontheaverage40’dieselfleetdata.
Figure9.2ExampleofRollingScaffold
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Table9.8Referencecase:40’dieselbuses
Discountedtotal Total
CapitalInvestmentCosts Busacquisition&rebuild(40units) $28075180 $29030200
BuildingandInfrastructurecost NonerequiredOthersoft,nonrecurringcosts Nonerequired
OperatingCosts M&SCosts $26201313 $30976741
Fuellingequipmentmaintenance NegligibleFuel&ElectricityCost* $14015707 $16570707CarbonLevy $1303976 $1541637
TotalCost $69596175 $78118776Source:MARCON,2016
Table9.8showsthatoperating40newgeneration40’dieselbusesinregularservicefor989,000kmatETSwillroughlycosttheCityofEdmonton$78.0millionoverits20yearlifeifthecostoffacilities,managementoverheadandothersmallercomponentsthatareexcludedfromcalculationsasexplainedearlier.Notaccountingforinflationandonanetpresentvalue(“NPV”)basis,thisrepresents$69.6millionin2016dollars.Theseareourreferencenumbers.
9.5 Lifecyclecostoftrickle-chargedelectricbusesinEdmontonUsingatrickle-charged,40’electricbusonanidenticaldutycycleandforthesame989,000kmwillcost68%lessinfueland42%lessmaintenanceandserviceasitemizedinAppendix4.Butthepriceoftrickle-chargedbusesandoftheirchargingstationsrequireaninitialinvestment58%greaterthanthatofdieselbuses,therebyoffsettingtheoperatingcostadvantagesofthee-bus.Thetotaloriginalinvestmentrequiredbytrickle-chargede-busesis62%higherthanfordieselbuses.
Table9.9providesthebreakdownofthetotal$76million($70MNPV)forecastedcostofoperatingafleetof40’trickle-chargedbusesinEdmonton.
Table9.9Trickle-chargede-buses,lifecyclecost
Discountedtotal Total
CapitalInvestmentCosts Busacquisition&rebuild(incl.ESSreplacement) $45865569 $47723240
BuildingandInfrastructurecost $750000 $750000Othersoft,nonrecurringcosts $119843 $119843
OperatingCosts M&SCosts $18260531 $21588679
Chargingstationmaintenance $66899 $80000Fuel/ElectricityCost $4831981 $5712654CarbonLevy $21496 $25413
TotalCost $69916319 $75999829Source:MARCON,2016
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Intermsofnetpresentvalue,thetotalcostofoperatingdieselbusesandtricklechargede-busesisessentiallyidentical.
9.6 Lifecyclecostofen-routechargedelectricbusesinEdmontonUsingen-routechargedbusespresentstheadditionalcostofbuildinganetworkoffastchargersattransitstations.Thiscostalonewasevaluatedatnearly$846,000perunitand,tomeetthe989,000kmtargetsetbyETS,eight(8)stationsmustbeinstalledattransitstationsandonemoreatthenewNETG.At$1.3Mperunit,en-routechargede-busesareexpensiveaswell.Theirlowenergyandmaintenancecostscannotcompensatefortheadditional150%initialinvestmentrequiredcomparedtodieselbuses.
Asaresult,thelifecyclecostofreplacingdieselbusesbyen-routechargede-busesamountsto$95.6million.Withanetpresentvalueof$89.9million,thisis28.5%morethandieselbuses.Thisexceedsthemarginoferrorsetforthisevaluationandindicatesthatasignificantincreaseintheoperatingcostofthefleetwouldoccurifthistechnologywereselected.Table9.10providesadditionalinformationforeachcostcategory.
Table9.10En-routechargede-buses,lifecyclecost
Discountedtotal Total
CapitalInvestmentCosts Busacquisition&rebuild(incl.ESSreplacement) $57281973 $58503000
BuildingandInfrastructurecost $1154992 $1154992Chargingstationscosts $6767923 $6767923Othersoft,nonrecurringcosts $126822 $126822
OperatingCosts M&SCosts $18064388 $21356787
Chargingstationmaintenance $1131926 $1353585Fuel/ElectricityCost $5310479 $6278362CarbonTax(ondieselfuelforheaters) $21496 $25413
TotalCost $89859998 $95566884Source:MARCON,2016
9.7 KeyfindingsWiththe40-busscenario,ourcalculationsindicatethatthecostofusingtrickle-chargede-buseswillbecomparabletothatofusingnewdieselbusesinEdmonton.En-routechargedbuseswouldhowevercostsignificantlymorethantricklechargede-busesanddieselbuses.Thesecalculationsarebasedonoperatinge-busesinthesamemannerasdieselbusesarecurrentlyused.Thisisnotoptimalfore-busesand,ifETSadaptstothisnewtechnology,theuseoftrickle-chargedelectricbusescouldbelowerthanthatofdieselbusesifserviceplanningandoperatingchangesaremade.
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10 TheelectricbustechnologyanditsevolutionSeveralorganisationshavebeenworkingonelectricbusesforyears.AlthoughitmayseemtheirarrivalontheCanadianmarketwasrathersudden,today’sbatteryelectricbuses(e-buses)aretheresultofseveralgenerationsofvehicletechnology,whichhasbeenextendedtoincludeelectrictrains,tramways,trolleybuses,diesel-electrichybridbusesandfuelcellbuses.
Withsuchanancestry,whydide-busestakesolongtoreachthecommercialstage?Theshortansweris:Batterychemistry.Technologycontinuestoevolveinordertodeliverareliableproductthat:
• Storesareasonableamountofenergy• Iscompact• Canbeoperatedsafely• Weighsaslittleaspossible• Canbedischargedandrechargedoften• Andquickly• Doesnotdegrademuchorrapidly;and,• Isavailableatanaffordableprice.
Whilethereiscertainlystillimprovementexpectedwiththecurrentoffering,today’sbatteriesalreadyallowe-busestocompetewiththecostoftraditionaldieselbusesonalifecyclebasis.Manybatterymanufacturersarestakingtheirfutureone-buses.
Theworldmarketforelectricandhybrid-electricbusesamountedtonearly15,000unitsin2014.Accordingtoarecentreport82,salesareexpectedtogrowatacompoundedannualgrowthrateof19.6%overtheperiod2015-2020.Attheendof2015,Chinaalonewasexpectedtooperateapproximately500,000plug-inhybridelectricandpure-electricvehicles.
NearertoCanada,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofTransportationhasannouncedaninvestmentof$24.9million(USD)forthedevelopmentofzero-emissionbuses.Alargeshareofthisincentivewillfuelthedevelopmentofimprovedbatteries.
Therearestillrelativelyfewelectricbusmanufacturersandsomehaveaglobalpresence:ABVolvo(Canada’sNovaBusparentcompanyfromSweden)andBYDCompanyLimited(China)areoperatingacrossallmajormarkets.Globally,YUTONGGROUP(China)isthelargestplayerintheelectricbusmarket.Thecompanyholdsthelargestmarketshareoftheworld’sbiggestmarket,China.ABVolvowithitsbroaderregionalpresenceacrossallthemajorelectricbusmarketsholdsthesecondpositioninglobalelectricbussales,andisthelargestelectricbusmanufacturerinEurope.
SolarisBusandCoachS.A.(Poland)launcheditsarticulatedelectricbus'Urbino18',inSeptember2014.EBUSCO(Netherlands)offersEBUSCO2.0,anewproductunderthecompany'selectricbusportfolio.OthermajorplayersoperatingintheelectricbusmarketincludeIrizar(Spain),ShenzhenWuzhoulongMotorsCo.Ltd.(China),FAWGroupCorporation(China),KingLongUnitedAutomotiveIndustryCo.Ltd.(China),DaimlerAG(Germany),AlexanderDennisLimited(UnitedKingdom),AshokLeylandLtd(India),NewFlyerIndustries(Canada),andProterraInc.(USA).
82 GlobalElectricBusMarketSize,Share,Development,GrowthandDemandForecastto2020,P&SMarketResearch,October2015.
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Fourmanufacturersoffertheire-busesinCanada:NFI,BYD,ProterraandsoonNovabus.
10.1 Fuelcellelectricbuses
FuelcellbusesarewellknowninCanadaastwooftheworldleadingmanufacturersofhydrogenfuelcellsarelocatedinthecountry:BallardPowerSystems(inBritishColumbia)andHydrogenics(inOntario).Hydrogenfuelcellbuses(H2FC)areequippedwithahydrogenreservoir(mostlyhighpressuregaseousbutpossiblyliquid)thatprovidesthemwithflexibilityandrangethataresimilartothoseofadieselbus.However,theinfrastructurerequiredtorefuelaH2FCbusissignificantlymoreexpensiveandcomplexthanadieselfuelpump,orasimpleelectriccharger.InadditiontotheH2fuellingequipment,thegarages,depotsandbarnsofatransitsystemmustbeequippedtohandlelighterthanairexplosivegases.Thisentailstheinstallationofventilation,lighting,electricalandsafetysystemsthatarealsomoreexpensivethanregularequipment.
Figure10.1Hydrogenfuelcellbus
Unlessitistheby-productofanotherindustrialprocessandcanberecuperatedinsufficientquantities,largeH2productioninvolvesusingeitherelectricity(waterelectrolysis)ornaturalgas(steammethanereforming).Bothprocessessufferfromsignificantquantitiesofenergylostorusedforproductionandinthefollowingstepsofcompressionorliquefactionofthegasaswellastransportation.ItbecomesdifficulttojustifyH2inaworldwhereelectricandnaturalgasbusesarealreadycommerciallyavailable.
Inalmostallcases,H2fuelmustbetruckedovertothetransitfacilityandstoredonsite.Whentransitgaragesarelocatedindenselypopulatedareas,firemarshalsarehesitanttograntpermitsforsuchinstallationsasthefirecodesarenotveryspecificregardingtheuseofindustrialhydrogeninfillingstationsand,whenevertheydo,theyrequiresecuritysystemsthataddsignificantcosttotheoperation.
Morethan2,000organizationsthroughouttheworldareactivelyinvolvedinfuelcelldevelopment83.Busmanufacturers,suchasDaimler,areworkingonmakingthesehydrogen-poweredvehiclesmoreaffordablebutthecomplexityofhandlingthesevehicleshaskeptmost
83 Source:http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/the_future_battery.
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transitpropertiesawayfromthemtodate.Withtherapidprogressbeingachievedinbatterychemistry(improvementsinefficiencyandcost),mostexpertsagreethatitwillbechallengingforhydrogenfuelcellbusestocatchuptobatteryelectricbuses84.
10.2 Batteries
ThekeytoawideracceptanceofEVsingeneral,andbattery-powerede-busesinparticularisbatterycostandperformance.
Severalbatterymanufacturers,includingBosch85andBYD86,arepredictingthecapacityofbatteriescurrentlybeingdevelopedwilldoublewithin18to48months(dependingonthesource).Whilesomeclaimtheirpricewillnotincrease,othersclaimitwillactuallydecreasebyvirtueoftwowellknowphenomena,thelearningcurveandtheeconomiesofscale.ReputablefinancialanalystsprojectthecostofbatterieswilldropfromtheircurrentUS$350/kWhtolessthan$120onaverageby2030asfigure10.6shows.
Figure10.2CostofLi-Ionbatteries2010-2030
Source:Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2015.
Lithium-Ionisthebasicingredientinmanybatterychemistries,butitisnottheonlyone.Currentlyresearchisdedicatedtocheapermaterials.Canada’sIREQ(InstitutderechercheenélectricitéduQuébec)isoneofseveralprominentplayersinthatfield,developingagenerationofbatteriesthat
84 Twoofthewritersofthisreporthavecumulatedover25yearsofexperiencewithhydrogenandhydrogenbuses(H2buses).Theyhaveco-authoredtheonlyroadmapinexistenceinCanadaforthedevelopmentofH2busesandtheirimplementationintransitsystems.
85 Source:http://ecomento.com/2015/10/13/bosch-developing-electric-car-battery-of-the-future/,October2015.86 Source:WangChuanfu,CEOofBYD,inapresentationtohisstaffattheirCaliforniaplant,February2016.
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willsucceedlithium-ionbatteriesintransportationelectrification.TheworkperformedonthisSolidStateBatterytechnologyisinnovativeintwoways:first,itusesasolidelectrolyte;and,secondtheanodeismadeofmetalliclithiumwithaspeciallytreatedsurface.Thisisexpectedtoyieldamorestable,saferbutyetcheaperbattery87.
Althoughthisresearchispromising,itisoneofmanyprojectsexpectedtoyieldpowerpacksthatwillbebothdenser(energy-wise)andcheaper.
10.3 Otherchargingmethods
Recently,majorelectricbusmanufacturers,namelyIrizar,Solaris,VDLandVolvo, concludedanagreement88withnumeroussuppliersofchargingtechnologiesthatwillallowthemalltousethesameopeninterfacebetweenbusandcharger.Thisagreementisseenasavitalsteptowardsfindingacommonstandardthatwillapplytoalltechnologies.
Althoughonlythethreemainsuppliersofchargingtechnology(ABB,HelioxandSiemens)havesignedthisagreement,theopeninterfacewillbeaccessibletoeveryoneinhopethatallmanufacturerswilladoptthenewstandard.TheEuropeanbodyCEN-CENELEC89isworkingwiththeinternationalstandardizationbodyISO/IEConthedevelopmentofEuropeanandinternationalstandards.Thesestandardsarenotexpecteduntil2019.
Therearetwofamiliesofchargingsystems,bothoffertrickleandrapidchargingoptions:
• Conductive• Inductive
10.3.1 Conductivecharging
Conductivechargingimpliesaphysicalcontactbetweenthechargingsystemandthebattery.Usingwiresistheoldestandmostcommonformofpoweringelectrictransit.TheETStrolleybusesthatoperatedfordecadesinEdmontonareanexampleofthistechnology.Inthiscase,apoleconnectorfromthebusengagesoverheadwires90.
Chargingbatteryelectricbusesisrarelyperformedontheroadonacontinuousbasis.Rather,chargersareeitherinstalledattransitfacilitiessuchasbusbarnsortransitcentres.Intheformercase,itismostcommontofindanelectriccablerunningfromatricklechargertoeache-businthegarage.Alternatively,rapid-chargersareusedattransitcentresand/orgarages.Figures10.1and10.2illustratethetwomostcommonsystems.Infigure10.3,amobilearmoneachbusreachestoanoverheadchargingplatewhileinfigure10.4,themobilearmisattachedtotheoverheadapparatus(calledapantograph)anditreachesdowntothee-bus.
Therearetwocommontypesofpantograph:amobileapparatuslocatedonthetopofe-busesreachesuptofixedpantographstoreachacontacthead.Alternatively,amobilearmreachesdownfrommobilepantographstomakecontactwithcontactbars.Inbothcases,physicalcontactisrequired.
87 Source:NewLithiumMetalPolymerSolidStateBatteryforanUltrahighEnergy:NanoC-LiFePO4versusNanoLi1.2V3O8,NanoLetters,February2015,pp2671–2678.
88 Seehttp://www.abb.com/cawp/seitp202/ab11e1c9cedfc92d44257f79004b0f5c.aspx.89 EuropeanCommitteeforElectro-technicalStandardization(seehttp://www.cencenelec.eu).90 Edmontonabandoneditsoverheadwiresin2009,anddecommissioneditsagingwireandassociatedtransformerinfrastructure.
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Figure10.3FixedPantograph Figure10.4MobilePantograph
Whiletherearelesswell-knownpantographsystems,withtheagreementrecentlyconcludedinEurope,theyareunlikelytoprogresspasttheprototypestage.Itshould,however,benotedawidevarietyofpresentationsofthesetwotypesofpantographsexist;andmanyofthemareaestheticallyappealing,enablingCityplannerstointegratethemwithotherstreetfurniture.
Inadditiontotheapparentsectionofthechargingstation,hiddencomponentscanbehousedundergroundorinaseparateenclosure.Thesizeofthisequipmentdependsonseveralfactorssuchastheratedpower91oftheequipment,theequipmentmanufacturerandtheneedforadditionalequipmentsuchasstep-uporstep-downtransformers.
10.3.2 Inductivecharging
Inductionallowsforelectricitytomovetoabatterywithoutphysicalcontact.Inductivechargingplatesareusuallylocatedatgroundleveland,hereagain,thebuseitherlowersitselfasneartotheinductionplateaspossibleoramechanismmovestheplateuptothebus.Figures10.3and10.4illustratebothtechnologies.
Figure10.5FixedInductionPlate Figure10.6MobileInductionPlate
ACanadiancompany,Bombardier,offersaninductivechargingsystemthatisalreadycommerciallyusedforbothbusesandtrainsinEurope.
Again,aswithconductivecharging,thesystemscaneithertricklechargethebus(usuallyatthebusdepotorinitsparkinglot)orrapidchargeen-routeatbusstopsandtransitcentres.In
91 SeelexiconinAppendix1formoreinformation.
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additiontotheinductionplate,therearealsocomponentsthatcanbelocatedunderoraboveground.
Theinductivesystem'smainadvantageisthatitiseasierforoperatorstoparkoveraplatethantolineupthebuspreciselyunderpantographs.Therearehoweverconcernsregardingtheefficiencyofthetechnologyastheamountofenergytransferredtothebus’energystoragesystemdiminisheswiththedistancebetweentheplatesandthebatteries.Thequantityofsnowandicecanincreasethedistancebetweentheinductionplateandthereceivingcomponent.Suchconditionsthereforehaveanimpactonchargingefficiencies,andthetimerequiredtorechargebuses.
Aswasthecasefortheconductivechargingsystems,therearealternativesystemsthathavenotbeenverysuccessfultodate,mainlyduetothecostoftheinfrastructurerequired.Forexample,aninductionwirecanbeembeddedintheroadalongthewhole(oratleastalargeportion)ofabusroute.Thistypeofcharging,whichwouldbenefitfromalmostcontinuouscharging,wouldallowforarelativelysmallerbatteryon-boardthee-bus.However,itwouldlimittheroutesforbusestostreetsequippedwiththeseundergroundcables,therebyrequiringlong-termcommitmenttotherouteswheretheyareinstalled,whichisaconsiderationforevolvingmunicipalitiesorthosethatadjustroutestomeetevolvingriderneedsandridershiptrends.
10.3.3 Boostcharging
Itwasoncebelievedthatprovidingsmalleramountsofelectricityonamorefrequentbasistoabuswouldbethebestwaytoacceleratetheadoptionofe-busesbytransitsystems.Bydoingso,thesizeofthebatteryonboardthebusescouldbekepttoaminimum,therebyreducingcurbweight,increasingpayloadandimprovingfuelefficiency.
Withtherapidadvancementsalreadymadebybatterymanufacturers,andwiththeanticipatedimprovementsinthecomingmonthsandyears,markettrendsfavourkeepinginvestmentsininfrastructuretoaminimum,makingboostchargingratherunpopularatthemoment.
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11 ConclusionsandotherconsiderationsBasedontheinformationavailableatthetimethisreportwasprepared,MARCONpredictsthatelectricbusesusedinserviceinEdmontoncanperformasreliablyastherestofthefleetofdieselbusesbutwillrequirethoroughplanning,training,andresourcestoensuretheCityofEdmontonderivesthefullbenefitsoftheiruse.
Electricbusesofferenvironmentalandpotentialeconomicbenefits.Althoughimportantfromthestart,theenvironmentalbenefitsforEdmontonwillincreaseovertime,asthesourceofenergyusedtochargethebusesgetscleaner.Itisalsoexpectedthattheeconomicbenefitsofusinge-busesrelativetousingthedieselbuseswillimproveinthefutureasthecostofoperatingdieselbuseswilloutpacethatofe-busesduetodieselfuelpriceincreases,therisingcarboncostandthepriceofelectricitycontinuingtoprogressataslowerpaceashasbeenthecaseinthepast.
MARCONconcludesthatitisfeasibletointroducee-busesintheETSfleet.
11.1 LimitationsofthescalingupofthereportsinthisstudyTheroadtrialsofe-busesinEdmontonwereconductedduringaveryshortperiodoftime,inJanuary2016.ThatperiodwasnotmarkedlycoldbyEdmontonstandards,norweretheremanysnowdays.Thebuseswerethereforenottestedunderverysevereclimateconditionsandtheirperformanceinextremecoldweathercannotbepredictedaccurately.BasedontheresultsofthetrialandexperienceofotherCanadiantransitevaluationsduringwintermonths,e-busescanbeexpectedtooperateeffectivelyinEdmontoninwinterwithintheoperatinglimitationsofthetechnology.
Theaccuracyofthedataprovidedinthisreportis±25%.Oneexceptiontothislevelofaccuracy:thecostofmodifyingthenewgaragefacilitytoaccommodatee-buses,whichisestimatedat$750,000within±50%byathirdpartyselectedbytheCityofEdmonton92.
MARCONuseditsproprietarymodel,TLCBu$™,topredictthelifecyclecostofoperatinge-busesinEdmonton.AsinstructedbytheSteeringCommittee,thecalculationsarebasedon40busesonly.Usingthisrelativelysmallfleetmakesthefixedcostofinfrastructure(garage,tooling,chargingstations,etc.)relativelyhighasaproportionofthetotalcostofadoptinge-busesinthefleet.Increasingthesizeofthee-busfleetwouldyieldsavingsforETSinthefuture.
Thecostofdieselfuelandelectricityaremaintainedconstantforthe20-yearlifeoftheanalysis.Thepricehistoryofbothenergysourcesindicatesthatfuturepriceincreasesfordieselshould,onaverage,outpacetheexpectedriseinthecostofelectricity,makingthebusinesscaseforelectricbusesmoreattractive.
Timelinessofdataisalsoimportant.ThefinancialprojectionsaremadewiththeinformationprovidedtoMARCONinthecourseofwinter2015-2016.Largeelementsofcostandperformanceareexpectedtochangesubstantiallyovertime.Forexample,thepriceofelectricbusesisexpectedtodecreaseassuppliersgainbothsalesvolumeandmanufacturingexperience.Batteryperformanceisimprovingrapidly.Asaresult,thesameenergystoredonboardwithasmallerand
92 MorrisonHershfield.
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lighterbatteryandalowercostofbatteriescanreasonablybeexpected.Bothhaveanimportantimpactonlifecyclecost.
Batteriesinstalledondiesel-electrichybridbuseshaveexceededindustryexpectationsintermsoftheirlifeanddegradationperformance.Butnewbatterychemistriesarereachingthemarket,sometimeswithoutthebenefitofaproventrackrecord.ThisrepresentsariskforETSbutatleastonemanufacturerhasexpressedawillingnesstoofferinnovativetermsforthesaleofitsbuses.InaninformalproposaldiscussedwithMARCON,themanufacturerofferedtoleasetheirbatterypackfortwelveyears(thelengthofthewarranty)ortorentthemforaslongasETSownsthebuses.ThisovertureshowsthatitmightbepossibletoshifttheriskofownershipofthebatteriesovertothebussupplierselectedbyETS,therebyeasingthecashflowrequirementsforthepurchaseofe-busesovertimeandmatchingthehighercapitalcostofe-buseswiththeenergysavingstheyprocure.
Itshouldbenotedthatthefinancialdataprovidedinthisreportisnotintendedasapredictionofthefullcostofbusownershipoverthenext20years.Rather,theevaluationwasconductedtoprovideafaircomparisonbetweenthreetechnologies:diesel,trickle-chargedbusesanden-routechargedbuses.
Finally,thecurrentETSdutycycleofdieselbuseswasusedtoestablishabasisforcomparisonbetweendieselandelectricbuses.Thisdutycycleisnotoptimalfore-buses.AdaptingETSproceduresandpracticestoaccommodatethecapabilitiesofe-buseswillundoubtedlyprovidebetterresultsfore-buses.
11.2 Expectedfinancialimpactofusing40electricbusesinEdmontonUsingastandardprocurementpractice,theinitialandmid-liferebuildcapitalexpenses(CAPEX)ofe-busesarenoticeablyhigherthanthecostofdieselbusesasshowninthefollowingfigure.
Figure11.1Capitalexpenses(CAPEX)fordieselande-buses(20yearslife)
Source:MARCON,2016.
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However,theoperatingexpenses(OPEX)expensesofe-busesare,fortheirpart,onlyapproximately56%to59%ofthecostofrunningdieselbuses.Thiscalculationassumesthatthepriceofdieselfuelwillremainatitscurrentlevelforthenext20years,whichishighlyunlikely.
Figure11.2Operatingexpenses(OPEX)fordieselande-buses(20yearslife)
Source:MARCON,2016
Giventhedutycycleusedfortheeconomiccalculationsperformedandthehypothesesrelatedtothecostofenergyandthepriceofthecarbonlevy,theeconomicforecastisveryconservative.
Andonthatbasis,thelifecyclecostassociatedwithpurchasingandoperating40trickle-chargede-busesoutofthenewNETGiscomparabletothatofusingthelatestgenerationofdieselbusesonthemarket.
Despitethefactthatalmosttwo-thirdsofETScustomerssurveyedexpressedawillingnesstopaymoreinordertoridee-buses,noadditionalrevenueisfactoredintoMARCON’scalculations.Infact,noincreasesareforeseenforthefaresoverthe20-yearperiodusedinMARCON’sanalysis.AllthehypothesesusedinMARCON’scalculationsareselectedinasimilarlymoderateway.
Thereareseveralopportunitiestofurtherimprovethebusinesscasefore-buses.Forexample,leasingorrentingthee-buses’energystoragesystemcanmitigatetheirhigherpurchaseprice.Favouringthee-businthedailyblockallocationinsuchawayastoincreasethedistancethee-buseswillcovereachyearfortheirentirelifewillalsoproducesavingsasthecostofoperationsofdieselbuses($1.05/km)ishigherthanthatoftrickle-chargede-buses($0.59/km).
Thecalculationspresentedinthisreportarebasedonseveralveryconservativehypotheses.Forexample,thepriceofenergy,dieselfuelincluded,isheldatcurrentcontractuallevelsforthe20yearslifeofthebuses.Althoughthepriceofelectricitywillrise,petroleumproductspriceshavehistoricallyexperiencedmuchgreatervariationsandthepriceofdieseliscurrentlylow.
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11.3 Expectedenvironmentalimpactofusing40electricbusesinEdmontonTheuseofe-busesinEdmontonwouldgenerateGHGsavingof38%to44%comparedtodieselbusesusedinthesameway.Thesesavingswillreach72%to74%by2034astheAlbertaelectricitysupplybasegetscleanerwiththeprogressivephasingoutofcoal-firedpowergeneration.
Theuseofdieselheatersonboarde-buseswilluse4%ofthedieselfuelcurrentlyconsumedbydieselbuses,irrespectiveofwhiche-busisequippedwiththeseheaters.Consideringtherangereductionimplicationsofheatinge-buseselectrically,equippinge-buseswithdieselheatersisconsideredmoredesirabledespitethesmallimpactofdieselheatingontheenvironment.
Whetherupstreamemissions,orthosefromthetailpipe,e-busesareabetterchoicefortheenvironmentthanthecurrentdieselfleet.ETScanfurtherdecreaseitsenvironmentalfootprintbymanyotherways:sourcingrenewablepowerforthebuses,co-generatingheatandelectricityinthenewfacilitythatwillhostthebuses,installingsolararraysonthatsamebuilding,etc.
11.4 RisksassociatedwiththeuseofelectricbusesatETSAdoptinganewtechnologyinvariablypresentsrisks.Ifnothingelse,timeisrequiredforstafftoadapttothenewvehicles.Thefieldtrialhasshownthatoperatorshavequicklyadaptedtothetestvehicleswithaminimalamountoftrainingandunderconditionsthatwerenotidealastheequipmentprovidedbymanufacturerswasavailableforonlyashortperiodoftime.Theadaptationperiodwillbelongerformaintenancestaffastechnicianswillhavetolearntodealwithunfamiliarissuesbutoperatorswillgetusedtodrivinge-busesveryquickly.
Whileelectricmotorshavelongbeenusedinindustry,batteriesmadetheirentryinthetransitmarketasamainsourceofenergylessthan10yearsagowiththeadventofdiesel-electrichybridbuses.Fromareliabilityperspective,theyhaveperformedverywell.Thisissueanditsassociatedriskshavealreadybeendiscussedbutadditionally,handlingbatteriesinthemaintenancegarageoraccidentsrequiresthatoperators,firstrespondersandmaintenancestaffknowtherisksassociatedwiththebatterychemistryselectedwhene-busesarepurchased,andthatallpersonnelbetrainedaccordinglytomitigatesuchrisks.
Thecurrentshorterrangeofe-busescomparedtodieselbusesalsopresentsariskthatmoree-busesmayberequiredthandieselbusestoprovideanequivalentlevelofservice.However,MARCON’sevaluationofETSserviceplansshowsthatthepropertyoperatesasufficientnumberofblockswithtotaldistancewellwithintherangeofe-buses(evenwitha15to20%energyreservemargin).ETScanthereforeplace40e-busesinservicewithouthavingtoworryaboutthisissue.Also,upcominggenerationsofe-busesareexpectedtototallymitigatethisrisk.MARCONalsoobservedthate-busesareabletonegotiatethesteepesthillsintheETSserviceareawithoutexperiencinganadverseimpactonrange.
Thefieldtrialalsodemonstratedthattheuseofdieselheatersonane-busprovidesmorecertaintyregardingtherangeofthevehicle,withminimalenvironmentalimpact.Approximately20%ofenergystoredonboardthee-busisrequiredtooperateelectricheaters.Inextremecoldthiscouldbehigher,furtherreducingtheeffectiveoperatingrangeofthebus.EvidenceatotherCanadiantransitagenciesthatevaluatedthebusesinsummerindicatesairconditioninghasasimilarnegativeeffectonrange.
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Theuseofen-routechargede-busespresentsrisksthataredifferentthanthoseofoperatingtrickle-chargedbuses.Withtheformer,thecharginginfrastructurerequiredcanberestrictiveintermsofrouteplanningflexibilityasthecostofmovingthechargingequipmentformonestationtoanotherwillbehigh.Withtrickle-chargedbuses,anelectricitygridfailureaffectingthegaragewheree-busesarechargedcanhampere-busfleetoperationsiftheelectricitysupplyfailureoccurswhene-busesarescheduledforacharge(unlessasufficientlylargebackupgeneratorisinstalled).Therangeofthecurrentgenerationoftrickle-chargede-busesalsolimitstheportionoftheblocksthatcanbeassignedtothesebuses.
11.5 Otherrisksandbenefitsassociatedwiththeuseofe-busesatETSOneoftheimportantbenefitsofusinge-busesistheexpectedincreaseincustomersatisfaction.Alargemajorityofcurrentcustomersexpressedtheirpreferenceforthesecleanbuses.Almosttwo-thirdsofthemexpressedawillingnesstopayapremiumtoridethem.Anddespiteresidentsalongtheroutesnotbeingsurveyedonthattopic,itisfairtoassumethatmostwillpreferaquietbustoanoisyoneintheirneighbourhood.
Usingthelatestgenerationofe-buseswillalsohaveanimpactontheimageofEdmontonasbeingaprogressive,environmentallyconsciouscity.
Theintroductionofe-busesatETScanbeaccommodatedbythecurrentcapacityoftheelectricitygridinEdmonton,particularlyattheproposednewNorthEastTransitGarage.However,ife-busesareintroducedinlargenumbers,theelectricitygridinEdmontonmayneedtobeupgradedinsomeareastoensurethereissufficientpoweratthelocationswherelargefleetwouldbecharged.
11.6 KeysuccessfactorsfortheuseofelectricbusesbyETSThereareseveralkeysuccessfactorstotheimplementationofe-busesinEdmonton.MARCONhasidentifiedtheminatimesequenceasfollows:
1. Clearlydeterminingwhatperformancethee-busesareexpectedtoachieve2. Makingtherighte-bustechnologychoicefortheintendeduse3. Priortotheprocurementprocess,definingexactly:
a. Theroutesthee-buseswillserviceb. Howtheblockassignationprocesswillbemodifiedtooptimisetheirusec. Whattheirspaceassignmentwillbeintheassignedgaraged. Howserviceandmaintenanceprocedureswillbeadaptedtoe-busese. Whatdesignchangesmustbemadetotheassignedgaragetoaccommodatee-
buseswithminimalimpactonoperations4. Developingspecificationsfortheprocurementofe-busesthatarecompatiblewiththe
wayETSintendstooperatethemandnotthebrandofbusesavailable5. Engaginginaprocurementprocessthatwillinvolvenegotiationswithoneorseveral
supplierswillingtoadapttheirvehiclestothespecificationsETShasdeveloped6. Obtainingfavourableterms(ex.batteryrentalorleasing)fromtheselectedsupplierasETS
willlikelybeshowcasedbythebusmanufacturerinfuturepromotionsoftheirproduct7. KeepingallETSstaffinformedofthegoalsoftheCitywithregardstoe-busesand
developingadetailedplanoftheprocessETSwillusetobringthemintoservice8. Afterdeliveryofthebuses,ensuringthebusesareassignedtothedutycycleandroutes
theywereoriginallyintendedfor
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9. Optimizetheuseofthebusestothemaximumdistancetheycandeliverastheircostadvantageincreaseswitheverykilometreinservice
10. Ensuringthedeploymentlocationofe-busescanbesupportedbytheelectricitygridatthatlocation.
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12 Recommendations
12.1 Risksandbenefitsforthee-buscaseinEdmontonWhiletherearerisksassociatedwiththeintroductionofe-busestotheETSfleet,theseriskscanbemitigated.Inthelongrun,theenvironmentalbenefitsassociatedwithe-buseswillmakethemmoreattractive.Thecostofoperatingtricke-chargede-busesisalreadycomparabletothatofoperatingadieselbusfleet(withinthelevelofprecisionrequiredfromMARCON’scalculationsherein).Thebusinesscasefore-buseswillkeepimprovingwithtimeascheaperenergystoragesystemsintroducedbymanufacturers.
Therefore,theadditionofe-busestotheETSfleetisrecommended.
12.2 E-bustechnologyTwochargingtechnologieswereevaluatedinthecourseofthisproject.Thetrickle-chargedbusesprovedtobemoreeconomicaltooperatewithsomelimitationsintermsofservicedeliverytoriders.Busesthatcanberechargedatacentrallocationcanserveareasonableblocklengthwhileprovidingalmostthesameflexibilityasthecurrentdieselbusesintermsoftheirrouteassignments.Withtheexpectedimprovementsinenergystoragesystemsannouncedbytheindustry,rangelimitationissueswillbecomeirrelevantfortrickle-chargedbuseswithinafewyears.ETSisthereforelessrestrictedwhendeployingthesee-busesthantheywouldbewithen-routechargedbusesthatmustnecessarilyrunfromonechargingstationtothenextinordertomaintaintheirrange.
Whiletheydonotexperiencerangelimitationsbecausetheycanquicklyreplenishtheirbatteries,en-routechargedbusesrequireacharginginfrastructurethatpushestheirlifecyclecostbeyondwhatcouldbeconsideredcomparabletothatofdieselbuses,outsidethe±25%marginoferror.
Forthesereasons,iftheCityofEdmontonchoosestoadde-busestoitsfleet,MARCONrecommendsthattrickle-chargede-busesbeadopted.
Thetechnologyassociatedwithe-busesiscontinuouslyimproving,withfourmanufacturersthatwillhavetransitproductsofdifferentconfigurationsavailableinthenextyearortwo-NewFlyer,BYD,NovaBusandProterra.ThematurityofthetechnologyinthedevelopmentcycleissuchthatMARCONsupportstheprocurementofe-busesbyETS.
Aprocurementofalimitednumbere-buseswillnotnecessarilyoptimizetherequiredcapitalcostoffacilityupgrades,charginginfrastructure,specializedtoolingandotherinitialsoftcosts.Whileasmallerfleetthantheoneevaluatedinthisreportwoulddamagethebusinesscasefore-buses,asmallprocurementwillprovideETSwithagoodopportunitytoevaluateallthefacetsofoperatingane-busfleet,andtooptimizetheoperationalprocessesrequiredshouldafurtherexpansionoftheelectricbusfleetbedesired.
12.3 Timing,numberandratefortheintroductionofe-busesatETSElectricbustechnologyisnotasmatureastheincumbentdieseltechnologyandso,adoptingelectricbusesdoespresenttherisksidentifiedinchapter11.Butatthistime,thereisagrowingconsensusintheindustry:electricvehicleswillmostlikelydominateoverthenextfewdecades.
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InthatcontextandwiththeresultsofthefieldtrialsconductedinEdmonton,MARCONrecommendsthatETS’snextbusprocurementcompriseofalimitednumberoftrickle-chargedelectricbuses.Puttinge-busesinserviceinEdmontonwillrepresentacredibleandconclusivefirststepingreeningEdmonton’stransitbusfleet.
Giventheamountandnatureofthepreparatoryworkrequiredtoprocurethesebusesandintegratetheminthefleet,itwouldbereasonabletoexpecttheirentryinserviceinlate2017,orearly2018.
12.4 ChangesrequiredforasuccessfultransformationofETS
12.4.1 Essentialchanges
Inordertominimizethecostofinfrastructureandoperations,MARCONrecommendsdeployingthesee-busestoasinglegaragedesignedormodifiedtoaccommodatethem.Theirspecificrequirementsshouldbedeterminedusingafunctionalanalysisbutmustincludeconsiderationspertainingtothesizeofthebackupgeneratorandtheclearanceofthebuswash.Otheritemssuchasthepossibilityofusingcogenerationand/orsolararrayswouldimprovefurthertheirenvironmentalperformance.
Inprocuringthemodestfleetofe-buses,MARCONfurtherrecommendsthatETSstaffdevelopaperformancespecificationassoonaspossible.Thesespecificationsshouldincludedieselheatersforspaceheatingonboardeachbusinordertoprovidemorecertaintyineffectiverangeforserviceplanning.Duetothedrainonthebatteriestheuseofairconditioningisnotrecommended.
Athoroughevaluationofserviceblocksmustbeundertakeninparallelwiththeprocurementprocesstoidentifywhatchangeswouldoptimizetheuseofe-busesand,therefore,theeconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsofthetechnology.Thegoalwillbetoassignthesebusestothelongestblockstheycanpossiblyhandleinordertoreducetheirfixedcostperkilometre.
12.4.2 Importantchanges
MARCONrecommendsthat:
• Acomprehensiveengineeringandmaintenancefleetmonitoringprogrambedesignedpriortoanye-busfleetprocurementtoensureprocessesaredevelopedthatwillcapturechangesrequiredtothecurrentmaintenance,servicingandsupportsystemstoensurethesuccessoftheintroductionofthee-busfleet
• Acomprehensivereviewofallserviceplanningbeundertakentoensurethatserviceblocksareoptimizedforuseofthee-busfleettoachievethebestenvironmentalandeconomicbenefits
• ETSworkwiththesuccessfulbusmanufacturerandpotentialthirdpartytechnicaltraininginstitutiontodevelopthenecessarytrainingpackagestoensureallstaffinvolvedwithoperatingthee-busfleetreceivecomprehensivetrainingpriortocommissioningthenewbuses
Ifitisintendedtoexpandthesizeofthee-busfleetafterafewyearsofexperiencewiththemodestfleetidentifiedabove,itisstronglyrecommendedthatathoroughanalysisofthechargingandfacilityupgraderequirementsbecarriedoutforeachtransitdepotintheETSsystem.Thisshouldbecarriedoutinparallelwiththeintroductionoftheinitialfleetofe-buses,
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andthefacilitydevelopmentplanforalltheoperatingdepots.Thiswillensurethatthepowerrequirementscanbemetandcapitalinvestmentneedsidentifiedinadvanceofanypurchasesofe-buses.
ItisalsorecommendedthatETScontinuetomonitorothertrialsbeingconductedwithe-busesattransitpropertiesinNorthAmericaandinvestigatesourcesofsubsidiesforprocurementofcleantechnologiesthatmaybeavailablefromFederalandProvincialgovernments.
12.4.3 Preferablechanges
ItispossibletoreducetheGHGintensityoftheelectricitytheCitypurchasestozerothroughthepurchaseorproductionofrenewableenergy.Therearecurrentlymanyopportunitiestoacquirerenewableenergyfromcertifiedsourcesaroundtheprovince.Edmontoncurrentlypurchasessomerenewableenergycredits(RECs),buttherepresentativeofEdmonton’sOfficeofEnergyManagementconfirmedtoMARCONthattheCityprefersconductingenergyefficiencyprojectsratherthantopurchaseoffsetstoreduceitscarbonfootprint.
ConsideringthepreferenceoftheCityofEdmontonforenergyefficiencyoverthepurchaseofRECs,ETSshouldexplorecogenerationpotentialwhereboilerscurrentlyspecifiedtoheatthebuildingarereplacedbycogenerationunitsthatsimultaneouslyproduceheatandpowerusingabundantandcheapnaturalgasaswellassolararraysonthegarageroofwherethebuseswillbehoused.TheOfficeofEnergyManagementindicatedthatitismandatedtoexplorethebusinesscasesofmodernizationandrenewableenergyinvestment,andtheyareinterestedinexploringthispotentialpriortothebuildingbeingconstructed.
12.5 OtherrecommendationsStandardgovernmentsourcingprocessesaregenerallyillsuitedtotheadoptionofnewtechnologiesbecausetheusual“lowcostbidder”approachdoesnotallowtheorganisationtoselectanensembleofsuppliersthatwillminimizetheoverallcostoftheimplementation.TheprocurementprocessattheCityofEdmontonwasnotexaminedbut,basedonthisgeneralobservation,MARCONsuggeststhataspecialtaskforcebeselectedtooverseethearrivalofthee-busfleet,fromdesignandprocurementtotheribbon-cuttingceremony.
AtleastonebusmanufacturerhasexpressedmuchflexibilityinprovidingacontractualarrangementfortheprovisionofitsvehiclesthatwouldallowETStoleaseorrenttheenergystoragesystemsforthee-buses.Theeconomicanalysisandresultinglifecyclecostanalysisshowthattheinitialhighcapitalcostofpurchasinge-busesismostdamagingtothee-busbusinesscase.
Thepossibilityofusingthisprocurementofe-busesandthepossibilityoffurtherprocurementsfromthesamesupplierasleverageforeconomicdevelopmentintheEdmontonareashouldalsobetakenintoconsiderationasonemanufacturerhasexpressedaninterestinperformingatleastpartofitse-busassemblyinCanada.
Finally,ifETSeverconductsfield-testingofnewtechnologiesinthefuture,MARCONrecommendsthatthe“lessonslearnedfromthefieldtrials”presentedinAppendix5beconsidered.
12:4
12.6 NextstepsTheactivitiestobeundertakeniftheCitydecidestointroducee-busesintheETSfleetare:
• ETSmustresolvehowthee-buseswillbeusedinthefleetandhenceforthdeterminewhatperformancethee-busesareexpectedtoachieve.
• Ideallypriorto,butpossiblyconcurrentlywiththeprocurementprocess,ETSmustdefine:o Theroutesthee-buseswillserviceo Howtheblockassignationprocesswillbemodifiedtooptimisetheiruseo Whattheirspaceassignmentwillbeintheassignedgarageo Howserviceandmaintenanceprocedureswillbeadaptedtoe-buses
• ETSmustthendevelopdetailedspecificationsfortheprocurementofe-busesthatarecompatiblewiththewayETSintendstooperatethemindependentlyfromthosecurrentlypromotedbybusmanufacturers
• TheCitymustthenengageintheprocurementprocessinawaythatmightbedifferentfromitsusualpracticesasnegotiationswithoneorseveralsupplierswillingtoadapttheirvehiclestoETS’specificationswillbethebestwaytoprocurevehiclesthatwillmeettheCity’sexpectations.Thelowestbiddermaynotbethebestsupplierasthelifecyclecostoftheprocurementshoulddictatethechoiceofsupplier.
• AninternalandexternalcommunicationsstrategymustbecraftedtoillicitmaximumcollaborationfromallCitystaffandtoinstilprideintheorganisationonthepartofallEdmontoncitizensandstaffmembers.
12:5
12:6
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Appendix1: Lexiconandotherusefulinformation
CycleLifeThisisthenumberoftimesanenergystoragesystemcanbedischargedandrechargedbeforeend-of-life.
Cyclelifemayvarywithdepthofdischarge(DOD)and/ordischargerate.Itisusuallyspecifiedasanumberofcyclestoacertaindepth-of-discharge(e.g.5,000cyclesto80%DOD),orevenasatableorgraph.AsampleisprovidedinFigure1.
Cyclelifemayalsovarybasedonthechargerate.
Figure1-SampleCycleLifevs.Depth-of-DischargeGraph
EnergyCapacityThisistheamountofenergythatcanbestoredinthedevicefordeliverytoaloadandisdescribedinkilowatt-hour(kWh)ormegawatt-hour(MWh).
Itisimportantheretonotethedifferencebetweendirectcurrent(DC)andalternatingcurrent(AC)ratings,andbetweenthe“ratedcapacity”andthe“useablecapacity.”Manyenergystoragedevices(especiallythosecalled“batteries”)areratedinDC,whileanenergystorage“system”–whichinteractswiththeelectricgrid–isratedinAC.So,itisimportanttonotewhichoneisbeingdiscussedbyspecifying“kWh-DC”or“kWh-AC”.
Itisalsoimportanttonotewhetherthisisthe“nameplaterating”orthe“useablecapacity.”Sometechnologies(e.g.lead-acidandlithium)haveatheoreticalratingbasedon100%discharge.However,usingthiscapacityrepeatedlywouldcausephysicaldamagetothebattery,somanufacturersrecommendusingonlysomepercentage(i.e.,50%or80%)ofthenameplate
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rating.Thereareotherenergystoragesystems,especiallyflowbatteries;thatcando100%depthofdischarge(DOD)withoutphysicaldamagetothebattery.
PowerRatingThisistheamountofpowerwhichcanbedeliveredfromtheenergystoragesystem,andismeasuredinkilowatts(kW)ormegawatts(MW).
ThismustalsobespecifiedasDC(ifdiscussingthebatteryalone)orAC(ifdiscussinganenergystoragesystem).
Thisratingisafunctionofthebatteryitselfandofthepowerelectronics(inverter),whichareusedtoconvertthebatteryenergyintoACpower.Themostcommonspecificationisforcontinuouspower,butdifferentdevicesmayalsoberatedforshort-termor“surge”power.Thepowerratingisusuallythesameforbothdischargeandrecharge,butitcanbedifferentinspecialcircumstances,especiallywhendiscussingthebatteryalone.
RoundTripEfficiency
Thisistheratiooftheamountofenergy,whichcanbedischargedfromtheenergystoragesystemtotheamountofenergyittakestorechargetotheinitialstate.ItisusuallyabbreviatedasRTE,whichmustbespecifiedasDC(ifdiscussingthebatteryalone)orAC(ifdiscussinganenergystoragesystem).
ACRTE=DCRTE*inverterefficiency*chargerefficiency
Round-tripefficiencymayvarybasedoncharge/dischargerate.
Notethatallenergystoragesystemshavearound-tripefficiencyoflessthan100%.
ActualDCRTEcanbebetween65%and95%,dependingonthebatterytechnology.
SystemLife
Thisisthenumberofyearsthatthesystemisexpectedtooperatewithinspecifiedparameters.Forexample,somesystemsmaybespecifiedtooperateforfiveortenyearsandthenbereplaced/recycled,whileothersmaybespecifiedtooperatefor25years,assumingcertainmaintenanceandcomponentreplacementsalongtheway.
Invertersandpumps/motordrivesandflow-batterymembranesareexamplesofcomponentsthatmayneedrefurbishingand/orreplacementoverthelifeofthesystem.
Therearealsootherspecificationswhichmaybedescribedonadatasheet,including:
Degradation
Someenergystoragesystems(especiallyelectrochemical)willexperienceareductionincapacityovertheirlife.Suchsystemsareoftenratedusingterminologysuchas“5,000cyclesto80%finalcapacity.”
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Note–thisisthereasonwhypeoplearelookingatsellingusedelectricvehicle(EV)batteriesforhomeenergystorageaftertheyhaveoutlivedtheirspecifiedlifeinthevehicle.
Self-Discharge
Thisistherateatwhichanenergysystemwilllosecapacityifleftunconnectedtoachargingsource.
Itimportanttonotethatsometechnologies(leadacid,lithium,flowbatteries)aresuitabletostandbyuse(longperiodsofinactivityfollowedbyuse),whileothers(sodiumnickelchloride,liquidmetalbatteries)aredesignedtobeusedcontinuously,sincetheir“losses”helpprovidetheheatingforthehightemperatureelementsofthebattery.
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Appendix2: BlockanalysisoftheWestwoodgarage(sample)93
93 AfullversionoftheanalysiswassuppliedtoETSinelectronicformat
WestwoodGarage-February16thDataPullWeekdayBlocksSummary
#Blocks Averagekm/day #Buses km/yearBYD 80 210.0 40 2,184,000NewFlyer 40 316.6 40 3,292,710Diesel 395 208.6 40 2,169,698
Legend AMBlockPMBlockBlockpossiblewith20%efficiencyloss(ElectricHeaters)Blockpossibleundernormalconditions(DieselHeaters)BlockassignedtoaBYDBlockassignedtoaNFI
Note:ForEn-routechargers,negativetimetofillnumbersindicatethatthereislessthan5minutesperhourrequiredtokeepthebusatfullchargemostoftheday
Block Start End Duration Distance InterlineRoutesTC1 TC2 TC3 TC4 StartChargeEnrouteChargeFinishChargeTimetoFill85301t 00-01-0111:54 00-01-0112:34 40 12 ,853 324.0 0.0 308.5 1685303t 00-01-0112:00 00-01-0112:39 39 12 ,853 324.0 0.0 308.5 1685302t 00-01-0111:58 00-01-0112:37 39 15 ,853 324.0 0.0 305.5 1994501t 00-01-0111:53 00-01-0112:39 46 16 ,945 324.0 0.0 304.1 2094502t 00-01-0111:58 00-01-0112:44 46 16 ,945 324.0 0.0 304.1 2094503t 00-01-0112:03 00-01-0112:49 46 16 ,945 324.0 0.0 304.1 2090301t 00-01-0111:55 00-01-0112:44 49 18 ,903 324.0 0.0 301.6 221623 00-01-0115:35 00-01-0116:50 75 23 ,16 324.0 0.0 295.8 2880001t 00-01-0112:00 00-01-0112:56 56 23 ,800 324.0 0.0 295.6 2884201t 00-01-0111:56 00-01-0113:01 65 23 ,842 324.0 0.0 295.1 2914503 00-01-017:28 00-01-018:37 69 23 ,145 324.0 0.0 294.9 2985501t 00-01-0111:56 00-01-0112:54 58 23 ,855 324.0 0.0 294.8 2985502t 00-01-0114:37 00-01-0115:35 58 23 ,855 324.0 0.0 294.8 2985101t 00-01-0111:57 00-01-0112:56 59 24 ,851 324.0 0.0 293.9 3086601t 00-01-0111:48 00-01-0112:51 63 25 ,866 324.0 0.0 292.6 3185201t 00-01-0111:50 00-01-0113:02 72 25 ,852 324.0 0.0 292.2 3285202t 00-01-0111:57 00-01-0113:09 72 25 ,852 324.0 0.0 292.2 3294301t 00-01-0111:42 00-01-0112:54 72 26 ,943 324.0 0.0 291.2 3384901t 00-01-0112:00 00-01-0113:18 78 26 ,849 324.0 0.0 291.1 3384902muwf 00-01-0114:57 00-01-0116:15 78 26 ,849 324.0 0.0 291.1 33822 00-01-017:03 00-01-018:40 97 26 ,8,12 324.0 0.0 291.1 3384401t 00-01-0112:00 00-01-0113:22 82 27 ,844 324.0 0.0 290.3 3416811 00-01-017:19 00-01-018:23 64 27 ,168 324.0 0.0 290.0 3493501t 00-01-0111:38 00-01-0112:55 77 28 ,935 324.0 0.0 289.6 3484502t 00-01-0111:53 00-01-0113:17 84 28 ,845 324.0 0.0 289.6 348502 00-01-016:31 00-01-018:05 94 29 ,85 324.0 0.0 287.4 3716207t 00-01-0115:51 00-01-0117:13 82 31 ,162 324.0 0.0 285.5 391619mwf 00-01-017:11 00-01-018:47 96 31 ,16 324.0 0.0 284.8 391608 00-01-017:26 00-01-019:02 96 31 ,16 324.0 0.0 284.8 391614t 00-01-0115:23 00-01-0117:03 100 32 ,16 324.0 0.0 284.0 4084504t 00-01-0114:02 00-01-0115:59 117 32 ,845,853 324.0 0.0 284.0 4016001 00-01-016:30 00-01-018:11 101 33 ,160 324.0 0.0 282.8 4116002 00-01-017:00 00-01-018:41 101 33 ,160 324.0 0.0 282.8 4118307 00-01-0116:12 00-01-0117:53 101 34 ,183,186 324.0 0.0 282.1 4218203 00-01-016:36 00-01-018:39 123 34 ,182 324.0 0.0 281.8 4218205 00-01-016:51 00-01-018:54 123 34 ,182 324.0 0.0 281.8 42
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Appendix3: Mid-lifecostrebuild–detailedcosts
DieselXcelsior
2014-2015
Diesel40'Buses
2012-2015 ExcelsiorE-Bus BYDE-Bus Notes
Rebuild/Overhaul/MidlifeCostseBusonly(thickborder) Energystoragelifeexpectancy(years) 12 12 1
EnergyStoragereplacement(perbus)(partsonly)* $244000 $156542 2
EnergyStoragereplacement(perbus)(partsonly)* $63000 $85000 3
ESSreplacement(labour) $1500 $1500 4Annualpreventivemaintenance(powerpack) $0 $0 5
EnergyStorageSystemdisposalcosts(perbus) 6
PowerInverterModule(PIM)(partsonly) $15000 $0 7
PIMLabour $750 $0 8Powertrain(Incl:turbocompressor) EngineorMotor
rebuild/replacement N/A N/A $23104 $30806 9
eBusMotorreplacementlabour $1500 $2250 10
Transmissionrebuild/replacement N/A N/A N/A $61100 11
BYDreductiongearslabour $3750 12CombinedEngine&
Transmissionrebuild/replacement
$64534 $64534 N/A N/A
BodyMidlife $64221 $64221 $64221 $64221 13
NOTES
1) BothNFIandBYDoffered12yearbatterywarrantyonrecentRFP2) BYD=C$156,542NFI=4x$61,000(61,000for50kW,200kWtotal)Re:Salesquotedcosts3) AlternatefuturecostanalysisusingCARBreport*4) Estimate2days(replacementandtestinglabour)5) IncludedinPMInspectionsnotedbelow6) Futurecostsunknown.Recyclingprobable.7) BYD-includedinBatterysystem.NFI-$15,000auxinverter(assumemotor,chargerinverterincluded
withcomponents)8) 1dayreplacementandtestinglabour9) BYDmotorreplacementcost(2).NFI-nopriceobtainedassumeBYD*1.5(singlelargermotor)10) Replacementandtestinglabour(2daysNFI,3daysBYD-2motors)11) BYDreductiongearset@$1.3012) 5daysaxlesre&reandrebuild13) Assumesameasdiesel(BYDunknownasit’sanewproductionbus)
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Appendix4: Detailedmaintenancecosts
DieselXcelsior2014-2015
Diesel40'Buses2012-2015
ExcelsiorE-Bus
BYDE-Bus Notes
MAINTENANCECOSTS
1RunningMaintenance
Brakemaintenance(annualperbus) $3032 $5225
$1516 $1516 2
Body/CabInterior/Exterior(annualperbus)
$2923 $3952
$3952 $4348 3
PreventativeMaintenanceInspections(annualperbus)
$6251 $6251
$4689 $4689 4
GeneralEnginework(annualperbus) $914 $2836
$0 $0
TransferCase(annualperbus) $0 $0
$0 $0
Suspension(annualperbus) $701 $1819
$1819 $1819
HvacSystem(annualperbus) $968 $1664
$1664 $1664 5GeneralTransmissionwork(annualperbus)
$340 $1504
$0 $0
CoolingSystem(annualperbus) $546 $1437
$546 $273 6Steering(annualperbus) $166 $1237
$1361 $1361 7
FuelSystem(annualperbus) $34 $1102
$0 $0 8AirCompressorSystem(annualperbus) $185 $726
$653 $653 9
Wheels,Rims,Hubs&Bearings(annualperbus)
$739 $663
$663 $663 10
ExhaustSystem(annualperbus) $226 $648
$0 $0
CrankingSystem(annualperbus) $284 $625
$0 $0
SupplementalInformationDevices(annualperbus)
$23 $549
$549 $549 11
LightingSystem(annualperbus) $178 $414
$178 $178 12ChargingSystem(annualperbus) $17 $399
$0 $0 13
AirIntakeSystem(annualperbus) $5 $375
$200 $200 14Instruments,Gauges,Meters&Warning(annualperbus)
$174 $323
$258 $258 15
ElectricalSystem(annualperbus) $14 $266
$266 $320 16ElectricalAccessories(annualperbus) $117 $200
$401 $401 17
Axles(annualperbus) $0 $150
$150 $150 18HydraulicSystems-Multi-Function(annualperbus) $0 $149
$0 $0
Modules/Relays/Wiring-Electrical(annualperbus) $63 $132
$264 $264 19
DriveShafts(annualperbus) $11 $130
$156 20Frame(annualperbus) $0 $46
$46 $46
IgnitionSystem(annualperbus) $5 $14
$0 $0
Oilchanges(annualperbus) $0 $0
$0 $0 21
Misc.OtherSystems(annualperbus) $107 $48
$1500 $1800 22Tires,Tubes,Liners&Valves(annualperbus) $26 $5
$26 $26 23
TotalRunningMaintenance $18048 $32891
$20859 $21178
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1) Ingeneral,used2012-2015astheaverageBatterybuscomparison-startingpointas2014-15Xcelsiorsaretoonewforlong-termaveragecost.UseXcelsiorcostforspecificnewtechnologyonnewbuses(e.g.diskbrakes).DifferencesinNFIandBYDgeneralizedasthisisnota"purchase"analysis,andbusdetailsmaychangeinfuture.
2) 50%lessbrakemaintenance-hybridandtrolleyexampleswithregenerativebraking3) XE40-sameas2012-15average.BYDadd10%forless"refined"body,lessstandardsourcing4) PMannualaveragecost,calculatedovera140,000kmcycle5) SlightlylesselectricACmaintenance,butaddfordieselheater(samecost)6) NFI-sameasXD40,multiplecoolingsystems.BYD-50%ofXD,simplercoolingsystem7) Add10%formorecostlypowersteeringmotor8) DieselheaterfuelincludedinHVACcost9) Deduct10%fromdiesel(foroil-lessscrollcompressor,nobeltdirectdrive)10) Sameasdiesel11) Sameasdiesel2012-1512) UseXD40costs,forLEDlighting13) Noalternatoronbatterybus14) Someairfiltersone-buses15) 20%less,noengine/transmissiongauges16) Samebasicbodyelectricalasdiesel(BYDadd20%-ETSexperience)17) Doubletheelectricalaccessoriesasdiesel18) Sameasdiesel19) Doubletheelectricalwiringasdiesel20) 20%more-morecostlydriveshaftonbatterybus21) OilchangesareincludedinthePMcyclenumbers22) Estimateforotherelectricalsystemsonbuscomparedtodiesel(2dayswork)BYD20%moredueto
morecomplicatedsystem(ETSexperience)23) XD40costsused(shouldbehigher-3tires/year)
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Appendix5: Lessonslearnedfromthefieldtrials
Thefieldtrialconductedinthewinterof2015-2016inEdmontonprovidedanopportunitytolearnandimprove.Shouldtheoccasionarisetoconductanotherfieldtrialregardinganewbustechnology,thefollowingcommentsmaybehelpful:
• Agoodunderstandingoftheelectricbusmarket,testbusavailability,andstatusofe-busescommercialavailabilityshouldbeacquiredbeforestartingfieldtrialstoensurethattheobjectivesofsuchatestprogramcanbemetasefficientlyaspossibleandthatthetimingforthetestisoptimal.
• Anoverallprojectscheme,anchoredbyadetailedtestplan,isnecessarytoensureallprogramcomponentsareconsideredandthatadetailedplanispreparedforthefieldtest.Thisshouldbecompletedwellaheadofacquiringthebusestobeevaluated.Leadtimestoobtaintestbuses,leaseagreements,bordercrossingandregulatoryapprovals,facilitymodifications,techniciantraining,drivertraining,andsupportpersonnelarekeytothewintertesting.Leadtimesareoftenlongerthananticipatedandtakemuchcoordinationthanoriginallyexpected.
• Adetailedtestplan,organizedpriortoputtingbusesinserviceishighlyrecommended.Thisplanshouldincludeatestdesignthatwillachievetheobjectivesandprocurethedatarequiredtomakemeaningfulconclusions,evenifitmeanstestingthebusesindependentlyofrevenueservicetoobtainspecifictechnicalobjectivesunderidenticaloperatingconditionsbeforeevaluatingtheminrevenueservice.
• Agreatnumberofvariablescanaffecttheperformanceofvehiclesbeingtested.Ideally,allfactorsshouldbecontrolledwhileonlyonevariesinordertoassesstheimpactofthelatteronbusperformance.Forexample,runningbuseswithoutpassengersbutloadedtocapacityontheidenticalrouteforseveraldaysallowsforthebestpossiblemeasurementofweatherconditionsonbusperformance.
• Ingeneral,staffwillbeunderpressuretoaccommodateatestofthismagnitude.Therearemanyadditionaltasks,workroutines,andtroublecallsformaintenance,operating,andmanagementstaff.Tosuccessfullyoperatesuchafieldtest,itisrecommendedtoallocatestafftimespecificallytothetest.Ideallyatestcoordinatorwouldbeavailabletodealdailywithongoingplanningandissues.Inaddition,inthistest,aconsultingfirmwithexperienceinfieldtestscanperformmuchoftheplanningandcoordinationtasks,butstillneedsassistancefromgaragestafffordailyrunningtasks.
• Staffmotivationtobeapartofthetest,toputintheextraeffort,andtounderstandtherationaleandbenefitsofallthisextraworkshouldbeconsideredakeysuccessfactor.Seniormanagementshouldcommunicatetheprojectatanearlystage,andfollowupduringthetesttochampionthecause.Testfatigueandmoralecandegradethetestresults,andaffectstaffappreciationoffutureelectricbusdecisions.
• Trainingandmatchingoperatorstotestbusesandblocksofworkisacomplicatedeffort.Unionandworkrulescreateconstraintsandlimittheavailabilityofoperator/bus/blockmatchups.Trainingmustbeorganized,andoperatorcomplaintsmustbeaddressedwithsomeurgency.Drivability,ergonomics,visibility,andbusfamiliarityshouldbepre-testedandworkedoutwithoperators,bussupplier,management,andtraining/safetybeforeevaluationcommences.
• Datacollectionduringthefieldtestiskey.Specificbusdataisrequiredtoberecordedbyhand.Briefformswithinstructionsmustbecommunicatedtostaff,andfollowedupquicklyifdataisnotrecordedcorrectlyorinatimelymanner.Muchdatacanbeobtainedfromexistingcomputersystemsfrommaintenanceandoperations.Itis
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recommendedthisdatabecollectedfrequently(twiceperweekormore),tobeabletomonitorandreacttoproblemsinatimelymanner.
• Technicianswilloftenstruggletotroubleshoottestbuses,especiallywhenthetechnologyisunfamiliartothemandwheninsufficienttrainingisprovided.Batterybuseshavemanyunfamiliarsystemscomparedtoadieselfleet,andextensivetraining/familiarizationtimeisrequired.Supportfrombusmanufacturersiskey,withanagreementforeitheron-sitespecialisttodothework,orattheveryleast,promptpersonalhelp.
• Analyzingelectricbustestdataisasignificantundertakingaswell,andrequiresgooddatacollectionandvalidation.Inthistest(seeSection3),ETStestdataisreportedincategoriesthataremeaningfultoETS.Inaddition,othertestsandbusoperatingdataisrequiredtovalidatetheETStestconclusionsduetotheshortlengthofthefieldtest.
• Whenevertheopinionofthepublicisrequiredasaninputintheanalysis,thegeneralconditionsofthedatacollectionenvironment(inthiscase,thebusitself)shouldbemadetomatchthoseof“usualconditions”asmuchaspossible.Thebusshouldbepaintedthesamewayasothersinthefleetandasfewthingsaspossibleshoulddistinguishitfromtherestofthefleet.Publicizingthetestisnotrecommended.Itwillinvariablyattractthosewhoarethemostinfavouroragainstnewtechnologies,therebycreatingabiasinthesampleofcustomerssurveyed.
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