eu roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
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Climate Action
EU Roadmap for moving to a competitive low
carbon economy in 2050
2 July 2012
Artur Runge-MetzgerDirector, DG CLIMA
Climate Action
Outline
• Climate policy challenges• Where does the EU stand now?• Roadmap 2050
• Global analysis• EU analysis
• Next steps
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Limiting climate change – a global challenge
Science requires that global emissions are cut by 50% by 2050 compared to 1990
EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990, in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries
Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy providing the framework for the longer term action
Need to fix intermediary stages towards reaching the 2050 objective
Need to keep developments under review on a regular basis
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Climate change threatening future economic growth
2005 : US$ 228 billion
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Climate Action until 2020
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Where does the EU stand now?
• EU emissions reduced by 15.5% 1990 -2010
• EU GDP grew 40%• EU on track
towards 20% emission reduction by 2020
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80.0
90.0
100.0
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1990
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GHG emissions
Population
Real GDP
Primary energy
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However, majority of Member States will not meet national non-ETS target in 2020
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2020 projections 2020 national target
Current projections show the EU would meet its 2020 target. However, for 13 Member States, the existing policies would not be sufficient to reach their national target.
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Roadmap 2050:Global analysis
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2050 Roadmap
The first extensive global and EU analysis on how the long term target can be reached:•identifies cost-effective pathway, with intermediate milestones,•identifies key technologies guiding R&D,•identifies investments needs and benefits,•identifies opportunities and trade-offs,•guides EU, national and regional policies,•gives direction to private sector and private households for long term investments.
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The impact of climate action on the global temperature increase by 2100
Global emissions pathway in the next 40 years will determine likely warming by the end of the century
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Developed Countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Baseline Global action
EU
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Baseline Global action
Only global climate action reduces emissions in all parts of the world
EU objective: 80 to 95% reductions largely through domestic measures:
around -80% internal reductions in 2050 compared to 1990
Developed Countries: similar efforts
Developing Countries: -5% compared to 1990
Equivalent to - 80% compared to business as usual
no cheap offsets by 2050
Developing Countries
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Baseline Global action
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Global climate action leads to converging emissions per capita
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Global climate action reduces fossil fuel prices
Oil price development
0
25
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75
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125
150
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
$ p
er
ba
rre
l
Baseline Fragmented action Global Action
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Global forestry and agriculture must be part of the solution
• Need to ensure food security to feed 9 billion people• EU objective of eliminating net deforestation around 2030 • Efforts to reduce agricultural emissions, or rather limit their increase• Increased biomass use for energy as a result of global action on
climate change
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Global agricultural productivity matters for future food prices
1. No yield improvement2. Base case: Only 0.5% yield improvement for crops3. Base case + also 0.5% yield improvement for livestock
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Roadmap 2050:EU analysis
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Efficient pathway:-25% in 2020-40% in 2030-60% in 2040
A cost-efficient pathway towards 205080% domestic reduction in 2050 is feasiblewith currently available technologies,with behavioural change only induced through pricesIf all economic sectors contribute to a varying degree & pace.
0%
20%
40%
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100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0%
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100%
Current policy
Power Sector
Residential & Tertiary
Non CO2 Other Sectors
Industry
Transport
Non CO2 Agriculture
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Roadmap 2050: Energy efficiency will be key
• Energy efficiency is the single most important contribution by 2050
• Also essential in the short term• Climate and energy package: 20% GHG reduction, 20%
renewables and 20% energy efficiency improvement• Current policies only result in 10% energy efficiency
improvement• Roadmap confirms key role of efficiency up to 2020 and
beyond• Efforts towards 20% efficiency target would deliver 25%
GHG reduction• ETS is one instrument to deliver additional efficiency
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GDP and GHG decoupling
40
60
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180
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220
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
19
90
= 1
00
%
GDP GHG emissions
Additional domestic investment: € 270 billion annually during 2010-2050, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP (Total investment – 19% of GDP in 2009), of which• built environment (buildings
and appliances): € 75 billion
• transport (vehicles and infrastructure): € 150 billion
• power (electricity generation, grid): € 30 billion
Roadmap 2050: Investing in innovation …
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GDP and GHG decoupling
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
19
90
= 1
00
%
GDP GHG emissions
• Fuel savings: € 175 to 320 billion on average annually during 2010-2050
• Primary energy consumption about 30% below 2005 without negatively affecting energy services
• Making EU economy more energy secure:• Halves imports of oil and gas
compared to today• Saving € 400 billion of EU oil and gas
import bill in 2050, equivalent to > 3% of today’s GDP
• Air quality and health benefits: € 27 billion in 2030 and € 88 billion in 2050
Roadmap 2050: … means saving energy, reducing energy
bill and raising air quality & health
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• Where will new jobs come from?• Short term: e.g. in renovation of buildings, production of
insulation materials, renewables industry• Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million by 2020• Use auctioning revenues from EU emissions trading
system and tax revenues for reduction of labour costs and increase in investments and R&D
• Long term job prospects depend on favourable economic framework conditions, e.g. expenditure on research & technology development, innovation, entrepreneurship, new skills, investment
Roadmap 2050:Creating new jobs in the EU
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Roadmap 2050: Making the EU fit for the global low-carbon race
• All competitors develop their own low carbon strategies, e.g.
• US:• 1 million electric cars on road by 2015• 80% clean energy by 2035
• China:• Two-year investment plan: +0.8% GDP on innovation,
restructuring, energy conservation, emissions reductions and ecological improvement
• 12th 5-year plan (2011-2015): reducing emissions per unit of GDP by 17%, accelerating R&D and use of low-carbon technologies, low-carbon pilot projects
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• Ensure the achievement of 20% energy efficiency target by 2020, and in this context use the role of the emissions trading system
• Give clarity for long term investments, especially in ETS sectors• Define 2020 - 2030 policy framework
• Upward review of 1.74% linear reduction to be considered to achieve -80% GHG emissions by 2050
• Measures to protect vulnerable industries against carbon leakage in the case of fragmented action
EU’s policy challenges (1)
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EU’s policy challenges (2)
• Implement Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan (€ 50 billion from 2014-2020)
• Develop innovative financing instruments to use limited public finance to leverage private sector investments in the next EU budget, e.g. in cohesion policy
• Use CAP to contribute to further emission reductions and increased absorption of natural sinks, taking into account the increased demand for agricultural and forestry products including for bio-energy
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Next steps
• Negotiation of EU Multi-annual Financial Framework and detailed legislation for individual spending programmes.
• Further Commission analysis of cost efficient and equitable mix of individual policy instruments and implications for individual Member States.
• Member States to develop long-term national and regional low emission development strategies.
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2626
For further information:
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm
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