eu & world cereal market situation

EU & World cereal market situation

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 2

Euro/dollar exchange rate

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 3

CRUDE OIL

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 4

BALTIC DRY INDEX

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 5

EU-27 Cereal Production

258,4

8,2

57,7

7,6

312,7

98,8

48,3

111,9

62,5

140,6

65,3

9,6 9,2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

TOTAL Softw heat

Durumw heat

Barley Maize Rye Oats

Mt

2007 2008

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 6

EU 27 Balance

-6,6

2,8

9,8

-8-6-4-202468

1012

total

Mt

BALANCE 2006/2007 BALANCE 2007/2008 BALANCE 2008/2009

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 7

EU Export Commitments

5,4

0,41,5

9,4

3,1

0,3

2,8

8,3

10,8

0,6

2,8

16,1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

CommonWheat

Durum Wheat Barley total

Mt

Export 2006/2007 Export 2007/2008 Export 2008/2009

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 8

Share of EU common wheat exports

by MS /July - Oct 2008

WHEAT - Main EUR27 Exporters - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)

France46%

Germany18%

Romania12%

Hungary2%

Others1%

Sweden1%

Belgium1%

Netherlands1%

Lithuania3% Bulgaria

11%

Latvia3%

Utd. Kingdom1%

Source: Comext (common wheat)

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 9

Destination of EU common wheat exports /July - Oct 2008

WHEAT - EUR27 Exports - Countries of destination - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)

Algeria27%

Morocco17%

Pakistan13%

Senegal2%

South Africa2%

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya2%

Tunisia2%

Cameroon2%

Israel2%

Egypt3%

Ethiopia4%

Iran13%

U.A.Emirates3%

Djibouti3%

Turkey2% Senegal

1%

Yemen2%

Iraq2%

Source: Comext (common wheat)

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 10

Destination of EU durum wheat exports /July - Oct 2008

DURUM WHEAT - EUR27 Exports - Countries of destination - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)

Turkey23%

Tunisia62%

Algeria5%

Others0,6%

USA1,2%

Switzerland1,9%

Syria2,6%

Morocco1,6%

Mauritania0,8%

Source: Comext (durum wheat)

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 11

EU Import Commitments

2,8

0,8

2,3

0,2

6,6

3

1,1

7,2

2,4

13,8

3,3

0,5

2,1

0,3

6,3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

CommonWheat

DurumWheat

Maize Sorghum total

Mt

Import 2006/2007 Import 2007/2008 Import 2008/2009

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 12

Origin of EU common wheat imports/ July - Oct 2008

WHEAT - EUR27 Imports - Countries of origin - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)

Ukraine62%

USA15%

Canada12%

Others0,4%

Kazakhstan0,7%Russia

9%

Moldova0,6%

Source: Comext (common wheat)

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 13

Origin of EU wheat imports by MS /July -Sept 2008

WHEAT- Main EUR27 Importers and country of origin - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

Spain Italy Utd. Kingdom Greece Portugal

(Tonnes)

Ukraine USA Canada Russia Others

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 14

Intervention situation

5.848 T.

9.605 T.9.169 T.

400 T.

Quantities under offer"Cereals"

EU-27 : 97.831 T.

72.809 T.

Marketing year: 2008/2009

Week No.: 23

at: 7/12/2008

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 15

Intervention situation

8.500; 9%

37.906; 39%51.425; 52%

Common wheat Barley Maize

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 16

IGC– November Report Wheat Production

56,2

610

1349,4

16,6 16,3

119,7

13,9

68 6220 13

683

151

2511

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

World

Pro

duct

ionUSA

Austra

lia

Russia

Ukrai

ne

Kazak

hsta

n

Argen

tina EU

Mt

2007 2008

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 17

442 446 451

97 89119

63

171516

57 64

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

2006 2007 2008

MM

T

Seeds & Waste

Industrial

Feed

Food

World 2006: 611 mioT World 2007: 614 mioT World 2008: 650 mioT

IGC– November Report

Wheat use

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 18

IGC–November Report

Wheat

125 118

150

39 2944

683

650

610597,8

612614

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007 2008

MM

T

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

World Ending Stocks

of which 5 major exporters

World Production

World Consumption

MM

T

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 19

Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007

168

220

315

155

115100

200

300

400

500

600

$/t

US SRW FOB GulfUS HRW FOB GulfArgentinaAustralia ASW Canada CWRS 13.5% St LawBlack Sea milling 4th gradeBlack Sea feed fob

Source: IGC

800

165

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 20

EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007

125135

107105

155

205

255

305

€/t

Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5%protein)Fob Hamburg (B)

UK feed FOB

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 21

Egypt: GASC official: bought 240,000 t wheat, incl. 120,000 t from Russia, at $163 fob, and 120,000 t from the EU (France), at $171 fob, for Jan shipment;

Syria put out a new tender to buy 200,000 tonnes soft wheat of any origin. Bidding deadline in the new tender is Dec 17.

Morocco put out a new tender to buy 300,000 tonnes soft wheat of any origin. Bidding deadline in the new tender is Dec 17

Pakistan put a new tender to buy 500,000 tonnes of any origin (Dec 20).

Common Wheat purchases

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 22

IGC–November Report Maize Production

47,37,4

58,620,5

787

332

63

775

91855

305

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

WorldProduction

USA Argentine Brazil EU Ukraine

Mt

2007 2008

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 23

85 86 87

469 490 475

198

30

168139

3129

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2006 2007 2008

MM

T

Seeds & Waste

Industrial

Feed

Food

World 2006: 724 mioT World 2007: 773 mioT World 2008: 790 mioT

IGC– November Report Maize use

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 24

IGC–November Report

Corn

115130

114

33,1 4129

775

790787

708

724

773

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007 2008

MM

T

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

World Ending Stocks

of which US

World Production

World Consumption

MM

T

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 25

Maize export prices since 1/1/2007

100

150

200

250

300

350

$/t

US YC3 FOB Gulf

Argentina maize Up River

Brazillian maize

Sources: IGC

US:145Arg:138Braz:132

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 26

EU maize prices since 1/1/2007

114,65

87,17

50

100

150

200

250

300

eu

r/t

Bordeaux (FR) Budapest (HU)

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 27

IGC–November Report

Durum wheat

2,5

1,4

2,5

1,20,8

1,2

38,7

38

35

35,9

38

36

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2006 2007 2008

MM

T

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

World Ending Stocks

of which Canada

World Production

World Consumption

MM T

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 28

Durum WheatEU Prices

Price of DURUM WHEAT (Euro/Ton)

in Italy - France - Spain

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Ju

il

Ao

ut

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec Ja

n

Fev

Mar

Avr

i

Mai

Juin

Juil

Ao

ut

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec Ja

n

Fev

Mar

Avr

i

Mai

Juin

Juil

Ao

ut

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Déc

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Eu

ro/T

Italy

France

Spain

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 29

Tunisia: 25 000 t durum in a tender for December/ $ 175 a tonne c&f.

Durum Wheat purchases

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 30

Agrometeo conditionsfor EU sowing 2009

Favorable conditions in Germany

Poor weather conditions in UK

Rain needed in some parts (RO, BG, HU, ES and GR)

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 31

Preliminary forecastsfor wheat sowing 2009

In USA : 5 %

In EU : 1.5%

In Russia : 5 %

in Ukraine : 6%

Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 32

Thank you for your attention