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European Architectural Barometer – Q1 2020product of
Theme: Media orientationApril 2020
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Media orientation
Research background
Appendix
Index
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Media orientation
Research background
Appendix
Index
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 1,7% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € 266 € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € 88,1 € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € 177,4 € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
Barometer forecastsbuilding construction
Building volumes in billion euros
Building volumes in billion euros in the new-build segment
Building volumes in billion euros in the renovation segment
Forecast overviewFuture construction volumes in total, new-build and renovation
5
Forecast overviewFuture building volumes in total, new-build and renovation
Barometer forecastsbuilding construction
Building volumes in billion euros
Building volumes in billion euros in the new-build segment
Building volumes in billion euros in the renovation segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx
Index
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures
Germany
Theme part: Media orientation
Research background
Appendix
13%
3%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q1 '0
9
Q1 '1
0
Q1 '1
1
Q1 '1
2
Q1 '1
3
Q1 '1
4
Q1 '1
5
Q1 '1
6
Q1 '1
7
Q1 '1
8
Q1 '1
9
Q1 '2
0
EU GE
7
Development of order book Expecting empty order book in 12 months
Increase of more than 5% Increase of 0-5% Remains the same (0%)
Decrease of 0-5% Decrease of more than 5%
Based on previous year
Rolling Order book Barometer (based on Q4 2008)
Architects remain very positive about their order books.
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q1 '0
9
Q1 '1
0
Q1 '1
1
Q1 '1
2
Q1 '1
3
Q1 '1
4
Q1 '1
5
Q1 '1
6
Q1 '1
7
Q1 '1
8
Q1 '1
9
Q1 '2
0
8
For the first time in many years a
contraction of the German market is
expected.
1,2% 1,3% 2,2% 1,7% 2,4% 1,8% 0,8% -4,0%
Building permits - Residential
Building permits - Non-residential
Development building permits Economic and construction related indicatorsValue
Q1 2019
Value
Q4 2019
Value
Q1 2020Q-2-Q development
GDP (quarterly growth rate) (%)* 0.4 0.0 Na Down
Consumer confidence indicator** -0.2 -3.3 -4.6 Down
Industrial confidence indicator** 1.1 -16.1 -14.0 Up
Construction confidence indicator** 19.0 14.9 13.0 Down
Production value buildings (index 2015=100)** 113.5 112.5 Na Same (Q4-Q3)
Architects with postponed projects (%)*** 28 28 27 Up
Architects with cancelled projects (%)*** 16 18 12 Up
Building permits residential (index 2015=100)** 113.1 117.6 Na
Building permits non-residential (index 2015=100)** 117.7 120.5 Na
Source: *Country statistical office; ** Eurostat, *** Arch-Vision
Index 2015=100
Source: Eurostat
Building volumes
117,6
120,5
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Q1 '1
5
Q1 '1
6
Q1 '1
7
Q1 '1
8
Q1 '1
9
80,6 84,2 85,4 88,1 91,1 93,8 95,5 97,8
171,0 171,0 175,5 177,4 180,6 183,0 183,4 170,3
251,6 255,2 261,0 265,5 271,8 276,7 278,8 268,1
€0
€50
€100
€150
€200
€250
€300
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Building volumes new-build Building volumes renovation
9
Dummy data has been used on the following slides, this means no
real data of this quarter is shown.
10
NO IMPACT DECREASE DON’T KNOW
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
Expectations impact COVID-19 virus on turnover this year in Germany
Estimated turnover loss in Germany
Total
XX%5 till 20 March (total)
Until 13 March
After 13 March
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Media orientation
Europe
Research background
Appendix
Index
12
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Inner walls
Window frames and doors
Heating, cooling and ventilation
Top 10 - products / product groups information searched for
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Advice about products
Specification texts
Information about innovations
Top 10 - professionally related information searched for
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
13
Top 5 – Sources for trends in architecture and new possibilities
XX
XX
XX
Trade magazines
XX
Top 5 – Sources for technical properties sources
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
Top 5 - Types of websites information is searched for on the internet*
Top 5 - Types of information searched for on the internet*
* Asked when mentioned internet in general
XX
XX
XX
Trade magazines
XX
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
XX
XX
XX
Via social media
XX
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
XX
XX
XX
Advice about products
XX
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
14
Usage of professional sources Importance of professional sources
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Very
importantImportant Neutral Unimportant
Very
unimportant
Don’t
know
Manufacturer websites
Colleagues and peers
Architectural portals
Manufacturer brochures
Trade shows
Professional journals
Manufacturer and
supplier events
Social media
Email newsletters
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Up to 39 years old
40 to 49 years old
50 to 59 years old
60 years or older
Usage of professional sources by age
16
50% 50% 50% 50%
39 years or
younger
40 to 49 years 50 to 59 years 60 years or
older2018 2020
Development professional usage of social mediaAge of architects professionally using social media
xx% xx% xxOf the architects use
manufacturer websites
Browse on the desktop/
laptop/ computer
Websites are visited
per week
Top 10 – Essential information on manufacturer websites
xx
xx
xx
xx
Advice about products
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
Usage of manufacturer websites
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
Usage of manufacturer websites the past year
Top 10 – Essential information in manufacturer brochuresUsage of manufacturer brochures
xx% xx xx%Of the architects use
manufacturer brochures
Manufacturer brochures are
received in a month
Of the received manufacturer
brochures are read
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
Usage of manufacturer brochures the past year
xx
xx
xx
xx
Advice about products
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
Top 10 – Essential information in professional journalsUsage of professional journals
xx% xx xxOf the architects use
professional journals
Professional journals are
subscribed to
Professional journals are read
for more than 10 minutes
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
Usage of professional journals the past year
xx
xx
xx
xx
Advice about products
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
xx% xx%Of the architects use architectural portals Are using architectural platforms more
in the past 12 months
Usage of architectural portals Reason for using architectural platforms
Both inspiration and product information
Gathering product information
Inspiration
Don’t know
20%
20%
20%
20%
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
Usage of architectural portals the past year
xx% xx% xx% xx%Of the architects use
social media
Use Facebook
professionally
Use Instagram
professionally
Use LinkedIn
professionally
Top 10 - Reasons for professionally using social mediaUsage of social media
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
Usage of social media the past year
xx
xx
xx
xx
Latest news
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
Usage of trade shows
xx% xx%Of the architects visited a trade show
In the past two years
intends to visit at least one trade show
again in the coming two years
Goal when visiting a trade show
xx
xx
xx
xx
Advice about products
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Media orientation
Cross-country comparison
Research background
Appendix
Index
24
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Usage of media and information sources
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
25
% (very) important minus (very) unimportant
Manufacturer websites
Colleagues and peers
Architectural portals
Manufacturer brochures
Trade shows
Professional journals
Manufacturer and supplier events
Social media
Email newsletters
Importance of information sources
26
Usage, type of device, and amount of manufacturer websites visited weekly
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Usage, and amount of manufacturer brochures received and read monthly
27
Usage, and amount of professional journals subscribed to and read for more than 10 minutes
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Inspiration
Product
information
Both
Most useful
architectural
platform
Usage, goal of usage, and most useful architectural portals
Logo’s most useful
architectural platform
Logo’s most useful
professional journal
28
Most visited
Trade show
Planning to
visit a trade
show
Trade show
that will be
visit mostly
Usage of trade shows and which are/ will be visited
43% 53% 31% 48% 78% 66% 52% 53%
78% 85% 85% 90% 96% 91% 95% 92%
Usage of social media, type of platform, and device
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Most used
social media
Professionally
Most used
device
Logo’s most visited / most
likey to be visited trade show
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Media orientation
Germany
Research background
Appendix
Index
30
Top 10 - products / product groups information searched for
Top 10 - professionally related information searched forPhase of the process active in
Design Planning Building supervision All parts
25% 25% 25% 25%
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Inner walls
Window frames and doors
Heating, cooling and ventilation
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Advice about products
Specification texts
Information about innovations
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
31
Top 5 – Sources for trends in architecture and new possibilities
Top 5 – Sources for technical properties sources
Top 5 -Type of websites information is searched for on the internet*
Top 5 - Type of information searched for on the internet*
XX
XX
XX
Trade magazines
XX
XX
XX
XX
Trade magazines
XX
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
XX
XX
XX
Via social media
XX
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
XX
XX
XX
Advice about products
XX
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
55%
80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
32
Usage of professional sources Importance of professional sources
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Very
importantImportant Neutral Unimportant
Very
unimportant
Don’t
know
Manufacturer websites
Colleagues and peers
Architectural portals
Manufacturer brochures
Trade shows
Professional journals
Manufacturer and
supplier events
Social media
Email newsletters
xx% xx% xxOf the architects use
manufacturer websites
Browse on the desktop/
laptop/ computer
Websites are visited
per week
Top 10 – Essential information on manufacturer websites
xx
xx
xx
xx
Advice about products
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
Usage of manufacturer websites
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
Usage of manufacturer websites the past year
Top 10 – Essential information in manufacturer brochuresUsage of manufacturer brochures
xx% xx xx%Of the architects use
manufacturer brochures
Manufacturer brochures are
received in a month
Of the received manufacturer
brochures are read
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
Usage of manufacturer brochures the past year
xx
xx
xx
xx
Advice about products
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
Printed Digital No preference
33% 33% 33%
35
xx% xx xxOf the architects use
professional journals
Professional journals are
subscribed to
Professional journals are read
for more than 10 minutes
xx% xx% xx%Read Read Read
Usage of professional journals the past year
Usage of professional journals Top 10 – Essential information in professional journals
Logo’s of journals
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
33% 33% 33%
xx
xx
xx
xx
Advice about products
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
36
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
xx% xx% xx% xx%Of the architects
architectural
portals
Use architectural
portals for inspiration
and product
information
Use architectural
portals only for
product information
Use architectural
portals only for
inspiration
xx% xx% xx%ReadRead Read
Usage of architectural portals the past year
xx
xx
xx
33%
33%
33%
Top 3 - Reasons for visiting a trade show
xx% xx% xx% xx%Of the architects
visited a trade show
the past two years
Visited Visited intends to visit at
least one trade
show again in the
coming two years
Usage of trade showsUsage of architectural portals
33% 33% 33%
Logo’s of architectural portals
Logo’s of trade shows
Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know
xx% xx% xx%Of the architects use
social media
Use xx
professionally
Use xx
professionally
xx% xx% xx%Use xx
professionally
Use xx
professionally
Use xx
professionally
37
xx
xx
Latest news
xx
xx
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
Usage of social media the past year
Top 5 - Reasons for using social media professionallyUsage of social media
Desktop Smartphone Tablet
Devices on which social media is used
xx% xx% xx%
Usage of social media
Logo’s of social media
33% 33% 33%
IndexPreface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Media orientation
Research background
Appendix
Methodology
Quantitative phone research:
✓ 175 interviews per country in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK
✓ 100 interviews in the Netherlands and Belgium
✓ Total: minimum of 1.250 interviews per quarter
39
Research background
Research objectives
The objective of the European Architectural Barometer of Arch-Vision is to offer
profound insight into the current economic situation and trends among architectural
firms in the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and
Poland. The European Architectural Barometer provides knowledge about the
future building volumes and the way in which these building volumes will be
realised (trends).
Costs
Yearly subscription fee: € 6,000
Includes:
1. Four quarterly reports per year
2. Possibility to give your input on the questionnaire
Countries
Planning & Process each quarter
Draft questionnaire
Final questionnaire
Fieldwork, analysis, reporting
Report available
each quarter
40
Sample and methodology of the researchMost architectural firms have less than two FTE. Nevertheless, the focus of the European Architectural Barometer is on the larger firms. Therefore the research is
only conducted among architectural firms with two FTE and more. As the study is focused on architects active in construction, architects that are solely active in
interior or landscaping are excluded from the research.
The table below shows the number of successful interviews in each country. The difference between the gross sample of respondents that were reached (all reached
numbers) and the net sample of respondents that were reached, was caused by those architects who could not be contacted or had an incorrect phone number, and
those who did not meet the selection criteria (mostly due to the fact that the architectural firms had less than two FTE). The difference between the net sample of
respondents reached and the response are the number of architects who refused to participate.
Gross sample (all attempts to approach respondents) 2088 4089 3751 2643 1434 1416 3245 2020
Net sample (all approached respondents) 363 1022 176 405 259 477 263 510
Completed interviews 150 150 85 150 150 99 63 150
Response percentage (interviews/net sample) 41% 15% 48% 37% 57% 21% 24% 30%
Response
76%
65%59%
82% 83%77%
83%
57%
24%34%
41%
18% 17% 22% 17%
43%
UK GE FR SP IT NL BE PO
Average xx 5,9 xx xx xx xx xx xx
2 – 4 FTE
5 – 9 FTE
10 – 19 FTE
20 – 39 FTE
> 40 FTE
41
Background of the architects
The table below shows the average number of employees of the architectural firms within the current quarter of this research, divided by
country. The architectural firms with one employee were excluded from this research. The second table shows the segments in which
architects within this research are mostly active.
Number of FTE
Housing
Non-Residential
Segment mostly active
56%
26%
13%
3%
1%
42
Background of the architects
The figure below shows the split in activities in new build and renovation.
New development or renovation
31%
33%
18%
31%
11%
45%
30%
55%
23%
26%
12%
31%
63%
19%
13%
5%
46%
41%
71%
38%
26%
35%
57%
40%
New build Renovation Both as much
IndexPreface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Media orientation
Research background
Appendix
44
Future
Construction
volumes
Sister
company
Barometer
Arch-Vision
Building
volumes
Interviews
The construction industry operates in a
delayed cyclical market, which means that
buildings designed today will not be ready until
at least two years from now. The economic
activities of architectural firms provide a strong
indication of the direction in which the
construction sector will develop in terms of
both building volumes and the way in which
building volumes will be realised.
Building volumes
Arch-Vision is a sister company of USP Marketing
Consultancy (www.usp-mc.eu), BouwKennis
(www.bouwkennis.nl), BauInfoConsult GmbH
(www.bauinfoconsult.de) and BuildInfoConsult
(www.buildinfoconsult.com). These are major
agencies each providing full-service research
support and specialised in the construction and real
estate markets.
Sister company
Architects have already been monitored by
several institutes in quite diverging ways in the
different countries. Arch-Vision launched this
European Architectural Barometer for a more
cohesive view. The European Architectural
Barometer is extremely useful for
organisations with a focus on Europe that also
want to compare the activities of architects in
different countries.
European Architectural Barometer
For decision makers charged with
considerations of company resources, staffing
and marketing strategy, a clear insight into
future construction volumes is essential.
However, economic indicators seldom provide
an adequate picture of these volumes.
Future construction volumes
All interviews are conducted by native
speakers. From the third measurement
onwards, two hundred interviews per country
have been completed per measurement. The
first two measurements were based on one
hundred interviews per country. Later, for the
Netherlands and Belgium, the measurements
returned to one hundred interviews.
Interviews
About Arch-Vision
45
Results per segmentFor three key questions from the current measurement of the European Architectural Barometer, the results are divided by architects that
realise most of their sales in the residential segment (0% – 30% non-residential), by architects that realise sales in both segments (31% - 70%
non-residential), and by architects that realise most of their sales in the non-residential segment (71% - 100% non-residential).
Segment most active
The tables on the following pages show the
abovementioned split with regard to the following questions:
• How did the turnover develop in this quarter
compared to the previous quarter?
• How did your order book develop in this quarter
compared to the same quarter last year?
• Do you expect that your order book might be empty
these coming 12 months?
57%
32%
20%
62%
48%
38%
62%
24%
30%
40%
44%
23%
38%
36%
33%
42%
13%
28%
36%
15%
14%
27%
5%
34%
0 - 30% 31 - 70% 71 - 100%
46
Short-term outlook among German architects
Expect empty backlog coming 12 months (%)
Q2Q Order Book Barometer (based on previous year)
Rolling Order Book Barometer (based on Q4 ’08)
2-9 FTE
10 or more FTE
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
19% 15% 19% 13%24% 14% 16% 22% 14% 20% 17% 18% 18% 16% 19% 20% 23% 25% 27% 21% 25% 26% 23% 29%
19%
82% 85% 81% 87%77% 86% 85% 78% 86% 80% 84% 82% 82% 85% 81% 80% 78% 75% 73% 79% 75% 74% 77% 71%
81%
109
591
3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1
'11
Q1
'12
Q1
'13
Q1
'14
Q1
'15
Q1
'16
Q1
'17
Q1
'18
Q1
'19
Q1
'20
105
346
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1
'11
Q1
'12
Q1
'13
Q1
'14
Q1
'15
Q1
'16
Q1
'17
Q1
'18
Q1
'19
Q1
'20
Q2Q Turnover Barometer (based on previous quarter)
Rolling Turnover Barometer (based on Q2 '09)
47
A short-term outlook is also available for:
• UK
• France
• Spain
• Italy
• The Netherlands
• Belgium
• Poland
48
Development turnover and order book
% sales in
non-residential
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
Strongly increased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Slightly increased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Stayed the same (0%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Slightly decreased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Strongly decreased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Barometer order book 103 112 106 106 109 114 121 107 97 97 97 90 79 83 98 109 120 119 108 123 100 120 96 85
% sales in
non-residential
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
Strongly increased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 6% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Slightly increased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 9% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Stayed the same (0%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 80% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Slightly decreased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 6% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Strongly decreased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 0% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Barometer turnover xx xx xx xx xx 107 xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Development turnover
(based on previous quarter)
Development order book
(based on previous year)
49
Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months
Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months
% sales in
non-residential
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
Yes xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
No xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
Do not know xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
50
Building volumes split in new-build and renovation, residential and
non-residential
2021 2020 2019 2018
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Amounts in billions at 2013 prices
The European Architectural Barometer for the order book development and turnover development
is calculated in the following way:
1. Respondents with a strong increase (>5%) are multiplied by 100
2. Respondents with a slight increase are multiplied by 50
3. Respondents that remained the same are multiplied by 0
4. Respondents with a slight decrease are multiplied by –50
5. Respondents with a strong decrease (>5%) are multiplied by –100
6. The sum of these values divided by 100, results in the Q2Q saldo.
7. Adding 100 to this saldo results in the Barometer figures, where 0 is the strongest possible decrease,
100 is stabilisation and 200 is the strongest possible increase.
The Barometer values calculated this way are presented in the report as Quarter to Quarter Turnover and
Order book Barometer.
51
Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer
Example of calculation Q2Q Barometer value:
Development
Turnover SpainQ2 ’15
Calculated
Values
Increased by more than 5% 25% x 100 2500
Slightly increased (0-5%) 28% x 50 1400
Stayed the same (0%) 36% x 0 0
Slightly decreased (0-5%) 3% x -50 -150
Decreased by more than 5% 8% x -100 -800
Q2Q Saldo = (2500 + 1400 – 150 – 800) / 100 = 30
Q2Q Barometer value = 100 + 30 = 130
To calculate the developments in the turnover and the order book with regard to the first measurement in
2009, Arch-Vision has developed the so called Rolling Barometer. The Rolling Barometer is calculated as
the cumulative sum of the Q2Q saldos of every quarter. The Rolling Barometer can drop or rise by 100
points per quarter at maximum.
Example: The Rolling Order Book Barometer is -66 after twelve quarters. In the worst case (all architects
reporting a decrease of over 5% every quarter) the Rolling Barometer would be -1200. In the best case it
would be 1200. Therefore a score of -66 in Q4 2011 means a slightly worse situation than in Q4 2008.
52
Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer
Barometer order book
Q1’09 Q2’09 Q3’09 Q4’09 Q1’10 Q2’10 Q3’10 Q4 ‘10 Q1 ‘11 Q2 ‘11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ‘11
Q2Q Barometer values 71 75 100 85 100 110 94 94 111 102 94 99
Saldo Q2Q Values -29 -25 0 -15 0 10 -6 -6 11 2 -6 -1
Rolling Barometer Values -29 -54 -54 -69 -69 -59 -65 -71 -60 -59 -65 -66
+ (-25) + (0) + (-15) + etc.
53
Future building volumes: building a model for prediction
Architects are at the front of the construction sector. They are the first
to perceive positive and negative changes. The current developments
of architectural firms have a strong predictive impact on the total
market. Arch-Vision publishes its predictions for the building volumes
based on the developments experienced by architects.
Building
volumes
Arch-Vision uses a model based on eleven market indicators and
Arch-Vision’s own results. The model combines information about the
economy, like construction requests and confidence figures, with data
about the developments within architects’ experience, such as
changes in the turnover and the number of active architects. Only
information that proved to have a strong correlative value on the
building volume is used. Subsequently, every kind of data is weighed
based on the predictive value.
The model
To ensure the correctness of the predictive value, the model has been
– with retroactive effects – compared to the actual growth and
shrinkage of the construction volume since 2003 for the Dutch* market
and since Q3 2009 for the remaining countries. The model turns out to
possess a very high predictive value. Nevertheless, the forecast has
to be interpreted with caution, as it remains a calculation. As with all
predictions, the margin of error can be larger, comparable to the
weather forecast: sometimes the Arch-Vision model can be
inaccurate.
High
predictive
value
The predictive value is calculated based on the consistency of the
market indicators with construction volumes, for the renovation,
maintenance and the new build markets. The correlation is
determined by a regression analysis, i.e. a statistical technique for
analysing data in which there is a (possible) specific connection,
known as regression.
Calculation
predictive
value
* Since 2003 the developments at architects in the Netherlands have been monitored by Arch-Visions’ sister organisation BouwKennis. Therefore, it is possible for the Netherlands to calculate the
connection between the architects and the building volume based on 10 years of data.
54
Future building volumes: reliability of the model
The reliability of a prediction model is closely related to the length of a series of data. A time series of ten years - and thus 43 quarters - is reliable to
determine consistency. However, the results of Arch-Vision do not go back that far. Additionally, in some countries - like Italy - figures of for instance building
permits as well as consumer and producer confidence are not always available for the last quarter (or last quarters).
The reliability will therefore increase each quarter, as the time series will be getting larger and more consistent. The explanatory power of the model will
continue to grow, as calculations can be performed based on more periods (quarters).
Market volume
New build
Renovation
Maintenance
~40%Architect developments
and expectations
~60%Mix of market indicators
~25%Architect developments/expectations
~75%Mix of market indicators
Market influence
Market influence
55
Future building volumes: Calculation
The Dutch market has been taken as a basis. The correlation between market volume regarding new build, maintenance and renovation on the one hand, and
possible explanatory factors on the other hand, serves as a starting point.
The correlation with building volumes is tested for a total of eleven market indicators together with two outcomes of the European Architectural Barometer.
The correlation of the following four indicators appeared to be strongest:
• Building permits – m² of useful floor area in non-residential buildings
• Building permits, number of dwellings
• Development of Turnover Barometer (European Architectural Barometer figures)
• Number of FTE working at architectural companies (European Architectural Barometer figures)
The predicting value of these indicators is between 54% and 91%. Because a longer history of data was not available for most countries, the development of
these four indicators in the last four quarters and the four quarters before served as a guidance for this measurement. The used range of five indicators is not
static and can be adjusted for future calculations. With the database becoming more complete, more reliable correlations can adjust the mix of indicators. A
longer range of regression measurements shall replace the comparison of the last four quarters with the four quarters before.
The forecast is based on the market knowledge of USP Marketing Consultancy together with the market figures available, such as building permits and the
developments among architects who are mainly active in renovation or new build as well as mainly active in residential or non-residential. Due to the limited
number of quarters, a forecast based on a statistical model is not possible for now. The model that was used has a lower prediction value for this period.
However, USP Marketing Consultancy aims at clarifying the general direction of the construction market development by publishing these data and the
predictions will be updated in the coming reports.
56
Questionnaire – StandardThese questions are asked every measurement
1. How many employees (in FTE) does your company currently have, including yourself? [if less than 2 FTE, end of research]
2. What is your position?
3. As an architectural firm, are you mostly active in the segment housing, non-residential building, interior or landscaping? [If interior or landscaping, end of
research]
4. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2018?
5. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2017?
6. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2016?
7. If your turnover should relate to housing and non-housing, what percentage of your revenue do you get from housing-related jobs?
8. Are you mostly active in new build or renovation?
9. How did the turnover develop this quarter compared to the previous quarter? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%); Stayed the same
(0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)
10.How did your order book develop in this quarter compared to the same quarter previous year? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%);
Stayed the same (0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)
11. How many projects have been postponed in this quarter?
12. How many projects were not started and cancelled in this quarter?
13. Do you expect that your order book might be empty these coming 12 months?
57
Questionnaire – Theme questions
1. For which products or product groups do you usually search for information?
2. What kind of professionally related information do you usually search for?
3. And if you search for trends in architecture and new possibilities, what are your two main sources?
4. And if you search for technical product properties, what are your two main sources?
5. Via what type of websites do you search for information on the internet when working on your projects? [when internet in general is mentioned]
6. What type of information do you in general search for on the internet? [when internet in general is mentioned]
7. And did you use any of the following sources in the past 12 months? You can answer with 'Yes' or 'No'
• A website of a manufacturer
• Architectural portals, platforms and websites
• E-mail newsletters
• Manufacturer brochures
• Professional colleagues/ peers
• Professional journals and magazines
• Social media
• Visiting events of manufacturers/ suppliers
• And have you visited any trade fairs or design shows for in the past 2 years?
8. And how important are these sources [Q7] for your orientation on your projects? You can answer on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = Not important at all; 2 =
Not important; 3 = Neither important nor unimportant; 4 = Important; 5 = Very important.
9. On which device do you mainly browse for the website of manufacturers?
• Desktop
• Mobile phone
• Tablet
10.Can you make an estimation of the number of websites of manufacturers that you visit weekly?
11.What is for you as an architect essential information that you expect at a manufacturer website?
12.Did your usage of manufacturer websites increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?
13.Which social media do you professionally use?
14.On which devices do you professionally use social media?
• Desktop
• Mobile phone
• Tablet
58
Questionnaire – Theme questions
15.What are the most important reasons for you to professionally use social media?
16.Did your professional usage of social media sources increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?
17.Which architectural portals, platforms or architectural websites do you use?
18.Do you use architectural portals, platforms and websites for inspiration or rather for gathering product information?
19.Did your usage of architectural portals, platforms and specific websites increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?
20.How many manufacturers brochures do you receive in a month? And what percentage of these do you actually read or use?
21.Do you use printed or digital brochures?
22.And what is your preferred format? [when both]
23.What type of information do you search for when using a manufacturer brochure?
24.Did your usage of manufacturer brochures increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?
25.How many professional journals or magazines do you read for more than 10 minutes and how many are you subscribed to?
26.Which professional journal or magazine is most useful to you?
27.What type of information do you normally search for in professional magazines or journals?
28.Did your usage of professional brochures increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?
29.Which trade shows or design shows did you go to in the past two years?
30.Which trade shows or design shows do you plan to visit the coming two years?
31.What is your goal when visiting trade shows?
32.Could you please tell me in which age group you belong?
33.Do you mainly work on:
• Design
• Planning
• Building supervision
• I work on all parts of the process
59
USP in figures
USP Marketing Consultancy
Total
70
Head office Subsidiary
Rotterdam Düsseldorf
Research AnalystsProject managers
Consultants
Market specialist installation, construction and DIY from the start
Dedicated and multi-client research
Active in the market for over 25 years
220 dedicated market research projectsin 2018
Revenue distribution
turnover coming from international projects
70%
turnover coming from dedicated market
research, 10% from multi-client
90%
turnover coming from B2B, 30% B2C
70%
focus groups in-depth interviews
82 1.102
B2B CATI interviews
B2C online interviews
57.881 57.250
Research in
39countries in 2018
60
USPs of USP
Deep knowledge of the
industry
Experienced in qualitative
and quantitative market
research
Dedicated market
research both B2B and
B2C
Market specialist for the
construction, DIY and
installation market for
over 25 years
Strong network of
partners covering all
major countries in the
world
Ability to conduct
research in multiple
countries at the same
time
Multi client reports
covering installers,
contractors, painters,
consumers and architects
Fact based consultancy
Dedication, honesty and
love for the industry
Ability to target all
relevant stakeholders in
the construction and DIY
markets
61
What we do – Dedicated market research
Examples Dedicated market research
• Tailor made
• Driven by your information needs
• Advice & consultancy based on facts and over 25 years of experience in the industry
• Worldwide coverage
• B2B, B2C, qualitative and quantitative research or a combination of both
• Within our market specialism, all types of researches can be conducted
• Targeting the right audience, with the right questions at the right time.
Segmentation Customerjourney
Branding Concept/product research
Customersatisfaction
Trends Distributionresearch
Marketexploration
Pricing Marketsize
62
Country scope
Providing continuous information for our clients about their main target groups based on facts. Providing insights on key trends, turnover development, futurebuilding volumes, background characteristics of the target groups and much more.
European architectural
Barometer
8 countries
reports quarterly
6,400 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like BIM, DMU,
Media orientation and
future building
volumes
Architects
European contractors
monitor
8 countries
reports bi-annually
2,200 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like BIM, DMU,
Media orientation and
branding
Contractors
European mechanical
installation monitor
6 countries
reports quarterly
4,800 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like Branding,
purchase channels,
Media orientation and
characteristics including
turnover and order book
developments
HVAC installers
European electrical
installation monitor
7 countries
reports quarterly
4,800 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like Branding,
purchase channels,
Media orientation and
characteristics including
turnover and order book
developments
Electrical installers
Painter insights
8 countries
reports yearly
2,000 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like mechanical
application, labour
shortage, purchase
points and branding
Painters
European home
improvement monitor
11 countries
reports quarterly
26,400 online interviews
annually
Trends like DIY vs
DFM, online buying,
branding and
information on a
product level
Consumers
63
What we do – Multi client research
64
Clients of USP
Construction Installation DIY Living & Real Estate
65
Trends & Vision in the market
Shifting decision making
Building information
modelling will become a
license to operate
Design, Build and
maintainSmart homes / offices Ageing society in Europe
Going from gas heating
towards electric
Prefab will become more
widespread
Online buying of products
by professionals
Changing role of the
wholesale
Qualitative & quantitative
labour shortage Europe
Building industry needs to
become smarter, faster
and cheaper
Digitisation
Increase influence
engineers & contractors
Changing role of the DIY
stores
66
For questions and more information
Jan-Paul Schop
Managing Director
Schop@usp-mc.nl
+31 6 55786342
Jeroen de Gruijl
Project Manager Arch-Vision
deGruijl@usp-mc.nl
+31 6 83979041
Dirk Hoogenboom
Research Consultant
Hoogenboom@usp-mc.nl
+31 6 52098924
© January, 2020 USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights,
database rights and other (intellectual) property rights are explicitly reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior
written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
Max Euwelaan 51
3062 MA Rotterdam
+31-10-2066900
info@usp-mc.nl
https://www.usp-mc.nl/en/
Head office USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
Max Euwelaan 513062 MA, Rotterdam
+31-10-2066900
+31-10-2066901
info@usp-mc.nl
+31-10-8002700
www.usp-mc.nl
Where can you find us?
© 24 April 2020, USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights, database rights and other (intellectual)
property rights are explicitly reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior
written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
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