european chamber of commerce in vietnam on glue up - … · 2018. 10. 9. · outlook 2017 2019 2018...
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ECONOMIC OVERVIEW2018/H1
Value YoY Growth Rate
Evolving
SUPPLY
Unchanged QoQ
5% YoYmill ion m2
• No new project
Retail
PERFORMANCE
Dept. Store
US$ 65/m 2/ mth
(1%) QoQ 7% YoY
Shopping Centre
US$ 47 /m 2/ mth
Stable QoQ & (6%) YoY
Podium
US$ 39 /m 2/ mth
4% QoQ & 5% YoY
Gross rent
1% QoQ & (4%) YoY
/m2/mthUS$5092%
Stable QoQ
(2)ppts YoY
Occupancy
OUTLOOK
20172019
2020 20212018
2H/2018
~234,000 m2
~564,000 m2Till 2020
•Rent increased slightlyo Renew contracts/ New tenants
o Higher asking rent in the CBD
•Stable occupancyo No new supply
o Flexible short-term tenants
• 1H/’18 Retail real growth: 10% YoY
• Upscale F&B bloomed
o Premium beer growth : 15% YoY
o Restaurant chains rapidly opening
• Cinema popular
o Revenue growth 20% YoY
o Ticket sales increased 16% YoY
Retail
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H/2018T
ho
usa
nd
m2
US
$/m
2/mth
Occupied Vacant Gross rent
Source: Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism; Vietnam Beverage Association
OUTLOOKOutlook
0
3
6
9
12
15
Personal vehicles,
excl. car
Household
equipment
Foods Garment F&B service
1H/ 2017 growth 1H/ 2018 growth
High growth in retail sales, catch up F&B
High F&B category
Future supply and expected rent
% YoY sales growth
Source: PSO, Q2/2018
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
% F&B
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Dist. 10 Dist. 4 Binh
Thanh
Dist. 2 Dist. 5 Dist. 7 Tan
Binh
Nha Be Dist. 6 Dist. 8 Tan
Phu
Secondary Suburban
Shopping centre Retail podiumm2
Source: Savills Research & ConsultancyRent change
Strong supply
in 2H/2018 will
impact to the
average rent
Current Projects
Future Projects
31% 31% 30%
49%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
E-COMMERCE
OUTLOOK
Source: High Vietnamese quality product asssociation, 2018
US$2 billion
In Q1/ 2018
Opportunity for strong retail growth E-commerce – rapid growthRising share of total population with daily consumption of US$15
or more (in 2011 PPP terms)
Initally cooperate with domestic firms
No market place for locals yet
Vietnamese – 7th most optimistic globally
Source: Nielsen Global
Source: Viet nam GSO, Worldbank
E-commerce in totalretail sales:
Q1/2017
0.9%Q1/2018
2.7%
49% 41%Mostly spending
disposable income for:
New clothes Outdoor entertainment
Spending more for:42% 40%
Upgrading households New hi-tech devices
How much Redclawcan 1 girl eat…?
The HaiDiLao Hot Pot Experience
Children can play in colorful play rooms
while their mothers and sisters can put
their names on the list to get a free
manicure from professional nail stylists
Computer kiosks can be used to surf
the web; some locations even offer
shoe shines and massages
This HaiDiLao signature is not just a dish,
it’s a show.
The “noodle masters”train for four to six months before they’re
allowed to perform – and what a
performance!
you’ll might be offered warm towels to wash your hands, a plastic bag to protect your
cell phone, or a soft cloth to wipe your glasses if they steam up from the hot pot
Orders are placed on an iPad; almost all dishes are available in half portions, if so desired.
Vietnam Retail
Restaurants under30 brands
Source: https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/two-ventures-at-the-top-of-the-food-chain-in-vietnam-3767803.html
Got any Redclaw…?
>300
Golden Gate Revenue2010-2018
4,415
223
Convenience store density (,000/store)
The Disconnect...
Sustainable retail development. When revenue exceeds gross occupancy cost. (GOC).ECONOMIC RENT:
Rent to sales Ratio
>30% likely to lead
to failure
<20% for F&B, with 8%
to 12% targeted
~12% to 15%for fashion retailers
MARKET
PIONEER
GEO-TARGETING
MARKETING
PREMIUM
DATABASE
OFFER 1st RETAIL
MEMBERSHIP
PROGRAM
THE FIRST EVER MOBILE-BASED
RETAIL MEMBERSHIP PROGRAM
5
6
7
8
4
2
7
8
5
4
6
5
4
3
5
1
1
2
5
7
7
6
5
1
2
1
2
3
8
7
7
5
1
1
0
1
5
6
7
8
6
1
0
1
2
,Views
4
6
5
4
6
5
1
1
2
5
7
7
6
1
1
2
1
2
3
8
7
7
5
1
1
0
1
5
6
7
8
5
1
0
1
2
,Response
4
6
5
4
1
5
1
1
2
5
7
7
6
3
1
2
1
2
3
8
7
7
2
1
1
0
1
5
6
7
8
0
1
0
1
2
,
22% redemption rate (traditional paper voucher is average 1%)
Conversion
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
8k
9k
10k
11k
F&B Jewelry/
Watches
Entertainment Children’s
Fashion
Women’s
Fashion
Crescent
Mall
Furniture &
Homeware
Shoes & Bags Toys Accessories
App Engagement (Jan – Jun 2018)
Top Categories by Views
Noticeable upcoming shopping malls in CBD
SPECIFICATIONS
Location87 Cong Quynh, Nguyen
Cu Trinh, Dist.1, HCMC
Land Area 8,320 sqm
Description
4 basements for parking
8 storeys of retail
40 storeys of high-end
residential
Retail GFA 33,300 sqm
Retail NLA 23,330 sqm
Design consultant Benoy
Expected opening date Q2 2020
Alpha Mall
Endless Excitement
H O W
A L P H A M A L LDIFFERENTIATE
FROM
THE OTHERS
Golden location in the centre of HCMC
Excellent tenant mix
Iconic landmark with innovative design
Experienced Mall management
Cutting-Edge Technology
Noticeable upcoming shopping malls
SPECIFICATIONS
Location101 Ton Dat Tien, Tan Phu,
District 7
Land Area 8,589 sqm
Description
3 basements for parking
6 storeys of retail
24 storeys of office
Retail GFA 61,200 sqm
Retail NLA 52,300 sqm
Expected opening date Nov 2019
Crescent Mall
A fresh shopping Experience
H O W C R E S C E N T M A L LDIFFERENTIATE FROM
THE OTHERS
Tech-savvy shopping mall
True shopping destination, excellent tenant mix
Prime location in expat area – District 7
Mall management by Savills
Average monthly traffic: 600,000 people
Noticeable upcoming shopping malls
SPECIFICATIONS
Location 182 Le Dai Hanh, Dist 11
Land Area 11,067sqm
Description
2 basements for parking
3 storeys of retail including
Basement 1
300 apartments and
30,000sqm of office
Retail GFA 15,000 sqm
Retail NLA 10,000sqm
Expected opening date 05/2019
Flemington
A repositioning case study
H O W F L E M I N G T O NDIFFERENTIATE FROM
THE OTHERS
Strong retail traffic, leading to
superior sales for retailers
The intersection among Dist 10, Dist 5,
Dist 6 and Tan Phu
Prime location in crowded existing
residential area
Consulted by Savills Vietnam
Complete repositioning, with
rebranding, new tenancy mix and
capex
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