eur/rsd (eop) 112.30 115.00 116 - eurobank dec9 2013.doc.pdfcurrent account/gdp -10.5 -4.1 -3.2...
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1
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
2
1300
1500
1700
1900
De
c-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
SampP 500
250
270
290
310
330
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
STOXX 600
600
800
1000
1200
1400
De
c-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
ATHENS GEN INDEX
830
910
990
1070
1150
De
c-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
MSCI
L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- BB-
ROMANIA Baa3 BB+ BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BBB BBB-
CYPRUS Caa3 B- B-
Credit Ratings
3
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth -17 20 10
CPI (pa yoy ) 73 84 55
Budget BalanceGDP -64 -56 -55
Current AccountGDP -105 -41 -32
EURRSD (eop) 11230 11500 11600
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 1000 1000 950
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 07 22 22
CPI (pa yoy ) 50 18 30
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -25 -22
Current AccountGDP -40 -12 -15
EURRON (eop) 444 443 445
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 400 400 400
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 08 05 15
HICP (pa yoy ) 24 05 14
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -20 -20
Current AccountGDP -13 03 00
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
195583
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 180143 09 263 EURUSD 13689 02 38 UST - 10yr 285 -2 109 GOLD 1234 07 -264
Nikkei 225 1529986 08 472 GBPUSD 16376 03 08 Bund-10yr 184 -2 52 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 76
STOXX 600 31643 06 131 USDJPY 10264 -08 -155 JGB - 10yr 067 4 -12 LMEX 3045 -03 -118
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 854 -2 -132 ON 179 -35 -451 LEONIA 002 0 -2
1-week 876 -1 -169 1-month 205 -14 -399 1-month 031 0 -10
1-month 901 -2 -209 3-month 27 -7 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 -1 -245 6-month 313 -4 -314 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 961 3 -260 12-month 332 -2 -298 12-month 223 1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1115 0 -77 3Y RON 415 -1 -195 3Y BGN 109 0 -7
5Y RSD 1323 2 280 5Y RON 484 -1 -126 5Y BGN 190 0 25
7Y RSD 1381 0 107 10Y RON 537 1 -88 10Y BGN 350 0 14
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 520 -1 89 EUR Sep-20 408 -1 -59 USD Jan-15 071 0 -54
USD Nov-24 694 0 653 USD Aug-23 484 -3 43 EUR Jul-17 180 27 -28
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 425 12 78 5-year 187 0 -28 5-year 124 0 25
10-year 469 13 71 10-year 245 0 -7 10-year 174 0 42
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5462 047 427 BET 63595 -005 2350 SOFIX 4736 015 3710
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1150 -028 -201 EURRON 44553 017 -026 USDBGN 14287 017 371
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
USDBGN
5
2
1300
1500
1700
1900
De
c-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
SampP 500
250
270
290
310
330
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
STOXX 600
600
800
1000
1200
1400
De
c-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
ATHENS GEN INDEX
830
910
990
1070
1150
De
c-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
MSCI
L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- BB-
ROMANIA Baa3 BB+ BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BBB BBB-
CYPRUS Caa3 B- B-
Credit Ratings
3
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth -17 20 10
CPI (pa yoy ) 73 84 55
Budget BalanceGDP -64 -56 -55
Current AccountGDP -105 -41 -32
EURRSD (eop) 11230 11500 11600
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 1000 1000 950
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 07 22 22
CPI (pa yoy ) 50 18 30
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -25 -22
Current AccountGDP -40 -12 -15
EURRON (eop) 444 443 445
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 400 400 400
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 08 05 15
HICP (pa yoy ) 24 05 14
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -20 -20
Current AccountGDP -13 03 00
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
195583
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 180143 09 263 EURUSD 13689 02 38 UST - 10yr 285 -2 109 GOLD 1234 07 -264
Nikkei 225 1529986 08 472 GBPUSD 16376 03 08 Bund-10yr 184 -2 52 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 76
STOXX 600 31643 06 131 USDJPY 10264 -08 -155 JGB - 10yr 067 4 -12 LMEX 3045 -03 -118
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 854 -2 -132 ON 179 -35 -451 LEONIA 002 0 -2
1-week 876 -1 -169 1-month 205 -14 -399 1-month 031 0 -10
1-month 901 -2 -209 3-month 27 -7 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 -1 -245 6-month 313 -4 -314 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 961 3 -260 12-month 332 -2 -298 12-month 223 1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1115 0 -77 3Y RON 415 -1 -195 3Y BGN 109 0 -7
5Y RSD 1323 2 280 5Y RON 484 -1 -126 5Y BGN 190 0 25
7Y RSD 1381 0 107 10Y RON 537 1 -88 10Y BGN 350 0 14
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 520 -1 89 EUR Sep-20 408 -1 -59 USD Jan-15 071 0 -54
USD Nov-24 694 0 653 USD Aug-23 484 -3 43 EUR Jul-17 180 27 -28
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 425 12 78 5-year 187 0 -28 5-year 124 0 25
10-year 469 13 71 10-year 245 0 -7 10-year 174 0 42
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5462 047 427 BET 63595 -005 2350 SOFIX 4736 015 3710
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1150 -028 -201 EURRON 44553 017 -026 USDBGN 14287 017 371
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
USDBGN
5
3
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth -17 20 10
CPI (pa yoy ) 73 84 55
Budget BalanceGDP -64 -56 -55
Current AccountGDP -105 -41 -32
EURRSD (eop) 11230 11500 11600
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 1000 1000 950
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 07 22 22
CPI (pa yoy ) 50 18 30
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -25 -22
Current AccountGDP -40 -12 -15
EURRON (eop) 444 443 445
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 400 400 400
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f
Real GDP growth 08 05 15
HICP (pa yoy ) 24 05 14
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -20 -20
Current AccountGDP -13 03 00
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013f 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
195583
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 180143 09 263 EURUSD 13689 02 38 UST - 10yr 285 -2 109 GOLD 1234 07 -264
Nikkei 225 1529986 08 472 GBPUSD 16376 03 08 Bund-10yr 184 -2 52 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 76
STOXX 600 31643 06 131 USDJPY 10264 -08 -155 JGB - 10yr 067 4 -12 LMEX 3045 -03 -118
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 854 -2 -132 ON 179 -35 -451 LEONIA 002 0 -2
1-week 876 -1 -169 1-month 205 -14 -399 1-month 031 0 -10
1-month 901 -2 -209 3-month 27 -7 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 -1 -245 6-month 313 -4 -314 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 961 3 -260 12-month 332 -2 -298 12-month 223 1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1115 0 -77 3Y RON 415 -1 -195 3Y BGN 109 0 -7
5Y RSD 1323 2 280 5Y RON 484 -1 -126 5Y BGN 190 0 25
7Y RSD 1381 0 107 10Y RON 537 1 -88 10Y BGN 350 0 14
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 520 -1 89 EUR Sep-20 408 -1 -59 USD Jan-15 071 0 -54
USD Nov-24 694 0 653 USD Aug-23 484 -3 43 EUR Jul-17 180 27 -28
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 425 12 78 5-year 187 0 -28 5-year 124 0 25
10-year 469 13 71 10-year 245 0 -7 10-year 174 0 42
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5462 047 427 BET 63595 -005 2350 SOFIX 4736 015 3710
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1150 -028 -201 EURRON 44553 017 -026 USDBGN 14287 017 371
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
USDBGN
5
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 180143 09 263 EURUSD 13689 02 38 UST - 10yr 285 -2 109 GOLD 1234 07 -264
Nikkei 225 1529986 08 472 GBPUSD 16376 03 08 Bund-10yr 184 -2 52 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 76
STOXX 600 31643 06 131 USDJPY 10264 -08 -155 JGB - 10yr 067 4 -12 LMEX 3045 -03 -118
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
TN 854 -2 -132 ON 179 -35 -451 LEONIA 002 0 -2
1-week 876 -1 -169 1-month 205 -14 -399 1-month 031 0 -10
1-month 901 -2 -209 3-month 27 -7 -335 3-month 065 0 -28
3-month 930 -1 -245 6-month 313 -4 -314 6-month 116 0 -52
6-month 961 3 -260 12-month 332 -2 -298 12-month 223 1 -80
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 1115 0 -77 3Y RON 415 -1 -195 3Y BGN 109 0 -7
5Y RSD 1323 2 280 5Y RON 484 -1 -126 5Y BGN 190 0 25
7Y RSD 1381 0 107 10Y RON 537 1 -88 10Y BGN 350 0 14
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 520 -1 89 EUR Sep-20 408 -1 -59 USD Jan-15 071 0 -54
USD Nov-24 694 0 653 USD Aug-23 484 -3 43 EUR Jul-17 180 27 -28
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 425 12 78 5-year 187 0 -28 5-year 124 0 25
10-year 469 13 71 10-year 245 0 -7 10-year 174 0 42
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 5462 047 427 BET 63595 -005 2350 SOFIX 4736 015 3710
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EURRSD 1150 -028 -201 EURRON 44553 017 -026 USDBGN 14287 017 371
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
400
450
500
550
600
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
BELEX15 Index
4000
5000
6000
7000
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
BET Index
300
350
400
450
500
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
SOFIX Index
108
110
112
114
116
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
EURRSD
425
435
445
455
465
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
EURRON
135
140
145
150
155
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
USDBGN
5
5
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