ev challenges or opportunities ali - ev.pdf · china geely holding group •with jsw of india - ev...

EV Challenges or OpportunitiesFor our industry

Oil Distribution Co & their Suppliers

Dr Ali Guidoum, Executive Director,

Teletek Solutions LLC, Abu Dhabi

Agenda

Background – Current Problems

The Rise of EV

Driving Forces for the Rise

Some UAE Initiatives

Threat or Opportunity?

Some of the Problems!

Environment (HSE)

• Pollution

Climate Changes & the

stringent Emissions

• Paris Climate Deal

Energy Security

• More Competition between countries for Declining resources

Pollution

Global Emission

GHG = GreenHouse Gases (CO2, …) leading to Global warming2DS = 2 Deg Scenario (limit temp increase to 2 Deg)B2DS = below 2 Deg Scenario

Energy SecurityMajor Oil Companies View

• Growth is still there

• Growing Population growing demand

Skeptics

• Certain that demand will peak, may be by

• 2020 as per Shell

• 2040 as per Exxon Mobil

• Climate change is a one Key driving factor

Cautious

Global Oil Demand

Actions being done

Investment in Natural Gas

• To meet climate challenge

Investment in Alternative Energies

• Renewables

• Solar, others

• Hydrogen

• BioDiesel

CI in Efficiency in Oil Extraction

The Rise of EV

Prediction by Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Driving Factors

Global Initiatives

EVI or Electric Vehicles Initiatives

The EV30@30 campaign

10+ countries incl CN,US,CA

Country Policies

CN, IN, US, UK, FR, NO,…AE

Subsidies & incentives

Manufacturers Commitment

Declining costs

Advances in Technology

Batteries, Charging Devices, …

Country Policies…

China

• Largest stock of 600K EV cars (more than US & EU combined!)

• Alternative fuel vehicles to account for 20% the 35 million annual vehicle sales projected by 2025.

India

• India to sell only electric cars by 2030

• Huge Pollution causing 1.2 million deaths per year!Breathing the air in New Delhi = smoking 10 cigarettes a day.

UK to ban sale of NEW gasoline & diesel cars starting in 2040.

France – Similar to UK

Norway

• Electric cars reached 42% of total new car sales

• Planning to end sales of gasoline and fuel veh by 2025!

Japan/Korea

• Hybrid cars

EV Stock as per OECD/IEA

Source: IEA report 2017

Manufacturers Commitments

Tesla – Innovator!

• With Model 3, circa $35K… meant for Mass Market

Daimler Benz

• 10-25% EV with 10% more hybrid!

Mazda

• All vehicles to go hybrid and electric by 2030

Volvo from 2019, phasing out Petrol

Nissan/Renault, etc…Many Chinese

Companies

China Geely Holding Group

• With JSW of India - EV cars, Batteries, charging stations

Summary - BNEF Findings

Electric vehicles take majority

share of new car sales

• We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040.

Tumbling battery prices to drive EV

growth

• The real take-off for EVs will happen in the second half of the 2020s due to plunging lithium-ion battery prices, which are set to fall by more than 70% by 2030.

Oil displacement ramps up

• By 2040, EVs will displace 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day, and add 5% to global electricity consumption.

UAE initiatives

Some UAE Initiatives

RTA have invested in 300 hybrid taxis (6% of fleet). Planning 50% hybrid by 2021.

10 % of the government investment in new vehicles will be EV & Hybrid by 2020

• Aim to remove the barriers of introduction of EV in UAE.

UAE President office ‘EV Accelerator Initiative’

• Free charging in public charging stns till end of 2019!

• Other incentives (parking, toll free…)

Dubai Government

Infrastructure - Charging Stations

Tesla - DXB Mall, Jeb Ali, AUH

Dewa - circa 100 stations (some with 24 // cars) 200

ENOC – some 10+ stations

ADNOC – some 12 stations 20

ADDC - will qualify private chargers

Threat or Opportunity?

Key Questions

Are the Petroleum Distribution Companies doing enough to capture this New Energy market?

Will they be displaced gradually by New Comers? Electricity Companies,…

How will the geographically dispersed infrastructure of service stations be adapted to serve EV?

What About our Suppliers

• Do we see Charging Devices from Traditional Pump Manufacturers?

• What about Automation?

• How best to manage transition and how to capitalize on it? Esp as we will have hybrid cars in addition to EV

Thank you!