evidence-based business process management
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LEAD the Way
The Era of Evidence-BasedBusiness Process Management
LEAD the Way
Trends in Business Process Management
Marlon Dumas
University of Tartu, Estonia
In collaboration with Wil van der Aalst, Marcello La Rosa and Fabrizio Maggi
Charleston, SC, USA5-6 March 2014
Are you watching yourself?
And your business processes?
3 months later
1. Any process is better than no process
2. A good process is better than a bad process
3. Even a good process can be improved
4. Any good process eventually becomes a bad process
– …unless continuously cared for
Michael Hammer
Back to basics…
Business Process
Intelligence
BAM Process Analytics
Reports & Dashboards
Process Mining
Business Process Intelligence (BPI)
Process Frequencyof Order
Processing
Process Cycle Time
of Order Processing
Process Cycle Timeof Order Processingsplit up to different
Plants
ARIS (Software AG)
Process Analytics: Dashboards
10
Start
Register order
Prepareshipment
Ship goods
(Re)send bill
Receive paymentContact
customer
Archive order
End
Performance dashboards
Process model
Organization model
Social network
Event log
Slide by Ana Karla Alves de Medeiros
Disco, ProM, QPR, Celonis,Aris PPM, Perceptive Reflect
Process Mining
11
CID Task Time Stamp …
13219 Enter Loan Application 2007-11-09 T 11:20:10 -
13219 Retrieve Applicant Data 2007-11-09 T 11:22:15 -
13220 Enter Loan Application 2007-11-09 T 11:22:40 -
13219 Compute Installments 2007-11-09 T 11:22:45 -
13219 Notify Eligibility 2007-11-09 T 11:23:00 -
13219 Approve Simple Application 2007-11-09 T 11:24:30 -
13220 Compute Installements 2007-11-09 T 11:24:35 -
… … … …
Automated Process Discovery
Understand your processes as they are• Not as you imagine them
Back your hypotheses with evidence• Not only with intuitions and beliefs
Quantify the impact of redesign options• Before and after
Process Mining: Value Proposition
Insurance
–Suncorp Australia
Health
–AMC Hospital, The Netherlands
–São Sebastião Hospital, Portugal
–Chania Hospital, Greece
–EHR Workflow Inc., USA
Transport
–ANA Airports, Portugal
Electronics
–Phillips, The Netherlands
Government, banking, construction … You next?
Process Mining: Where is it used?
Exploratory method
–Discover models
–Visualize performance over models
–Discover and compare variants
Question-driven method
–Identify a problem in a process
–Decompose into questions
–Measure and analyze questions
How to?
1. Plan & Frame the Problem
2. Collect the Data
3. Analyze: Look for Patterns
4. Interpret & Create Insights
Create Business Impact
Wil van der Aalst. “Process Mining”. Springer, 2012.
The L* Method
1. Plan and Frame Problem
Frame the problem, e.g. as a top-level question or phenomenon
–How and why does customer experience with our order-to-cash processes diverge (geographically, product-wise, temporally)?
–Why does the process perform poorly (bottlenecks, slow handovers)?
–Why do we have frequent defects or performance deviance?
Refine problem into:
–Sub-questions
–Identify success criteria and metrics
Identify needed resources, get buy-in, plan remaining phases
Planning step – Suncorp Case
Oftentimes ‘simple’ claims take an unexpectedly long time to complete
– To what extent does the cycle time of the claims handling process diverge?
– What distinguishes the processing of simple claims completed on-time, and simple claims not completed on time?
– What `early predictors’ can be used to determine that a given `simple’ claim will not be completed on time?
Team of analysts, relevant managers, IT experts
Define what a “simple claim” is.
Create awareness of the extent of the problem
Find relevant data sources
–Information systems, SAP, Oracle (Celonis), BPM Systems
–Identify process-related entities and their identifiers and map entities to relevant processes in the process architecture
Extract traces
–Collect records associated to process entities (perhaps from multiple sources)
–Group records by process identifier to produce “traces”
–Export traces into standard format (XES)
Clean
–Filter irrelevant events
–Combine equivalent events
–Filter out traces of infrequent variants if not relevant
2. Collect the data
3. Analyze – Find Patterns
Discover the real process from the logs
Calculate process metrics
–Cycle times, waiting times, error rates
Explore frequent paths
Identify and explore ``deviance’’
Discover “types of cases”
–Classify e.g. by performance
OK
OK Good
Not Ideal Expected Performance
Line
Suncorp Case
Main resultNailed down key activities/patterns associated with slower performance!
Simple “timely” claims Simple “slow” claims
Discriminative Model Discovery
WHAT’S THE CATCH?
There you are!
Filter
–Filter out events (tasks)
–Filter out traces
Divide by variants (trace clustering)
–Many process models rather than one
Abstract (zoom-out)
–Focus on most frequent tasks or paths
–Identify subprocesses and collapse then down
Discover rules rather than models
Process Mining: Mastering Complexity
Trace clustering
G. Greco et al., Discovering Expressive Process Models by Clustering Log Traces
Zoom-out: ProM’s Fuzzy Miner
Bose, Veerbeck & van det Aalst: Discovering Hierarchical Process Models using ProM
Extract SubprocessesProM’s two-phase miner
Pavlos Delias et al. Clustering Healthcare Processes with a Robust Approach
Chania Hospital Use Case
Pavlos Delias et al. Clustering Healthcare Processes with a Robust Approach
Chania Hospital Use CaseMost frequent paths
Pavlos Delias et al. Clustering Healthcare Processes with a Robust Approach
Chania Hospital Use CaseTrace clustering
Trace Clustering – General Principle
www.interactiveinsightsgroup.com
Do we really want models…Or do we want understanding?
Discovering Business Rules
Decision rules
• Why does something happen at a given point in time?
Descriptive (temporal) rules
• When and why does something happen?
Discriminative rules
• When and why does something wrong happen?
CID Amount Installm Salary Age Len Task13210 20000 2000 2000 25 1 NR13220 25000 1200 3500 35 2 NE13221 9000 450 2500 27 2 NE13219 8500 750 2000 25 1 ASA13220 25000 1200 3500 35 2 ACA13221 9000 450 2500 27 2 ASA
… … … … … … …
34
Decision Miner
installment > salaryor ….
installment ≤ salaryor …
amount ≤ 10000 or …
amount ≥ 10000or …
Discovering Decision Rules
Discovering Descriptive RulesProM’s DeclareMiner
Oh no! Not again!
What went wrong?
Not all rules are interesting
What is “interesting”?
–Generally not what is frequent (expected)
–But what deviates from the expected
Example:
–Every patient who is diagnosed with condition X undergoes surgery Y
But not if the have previously been diagnosed with condition Z
Interesting Rules – Deviance Mining
Something should have “normally” happened but did not happen, why?
Something should normally not have happened but it happened, why?
Something happens only when things go “well”
Something happens only when things go “wrong”
Maggi et al. Discovering Data-Aware Declarative Process Models from Event Logs
Now it’s better…
Bose and van der Aalst: Discovering signature patterns from event logs.
Discriminative Rule Mining
Take-Home Messages
BPM is moving from intuitionistic to evidence-based
–Like marketing in the past two decades
Convergence of BPM & BI Business Process Intelligence
Increasing number of successful case studies
Maturing landscape of process mining tools and methods
Next steps:
–More sophisticated tool support, e.g. automated deviance identification
–Predictive monitoring: detect deviance at runtime
Table of Contents1. Introduction2. Process Identification3. Process Modeling4. Advanced Process Modeling5. Process Discovery6. Qualitative Process Analysis7. Quantitative Process Analysis8. Process Redesign9. Process Automation10. Process Intelligence
http://fundamentals-of-bpm.org
Task force on process mining (case studies, events, etc.)
–http://www.win.tue.nl/ieeetfpm/
Process mining portal and ProM toolset
–http://processmining.org
Process Mining LinkedIn group
–http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Process-Mining-1915049
BPM’2014 Conference, Israel, 8-11 Sept. 2014
–http://bpm2014.haifa.ac.il/
Want to know more?
Marlon DumasUniversity of Tartu
E-Mail: marlon.dumas@ut.ee
For more information:www.fundamentals-of-bpm.org
Questions?
45
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