executive board meeting - norges bank...us uk germany norway sweden mpr 3/19 policy rates 7 policy...
Post on 20-Apr-2020
4 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING
23 OCTOBER 2019
Monetary Policy Report 3/19, overall picture
-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
2
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Output gapPolicy rate
Inflation (CPI-ATE)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Exchange rate index (I-44)
85
90
95
100
105
110
85
90
95
100
105
110
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
PMI for Norway’s trading partners
3
Manufacturing and services PMI. Twenty-five main trading partners.
Export weights. January 2010 – September 2019
45
50
55
60
45
50
55
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Manufacturing PMI
Services PMI
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Inflation for selected trading partners
4
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – September 20191)
Core inflationHeadline CPI
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
USEuro areaUKSweden
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
USEuro areaUKSweden
1) UK through August 2019.Source: Thomson Reuters
Crude oil spot and futures prices
5
USD/barrel. January 2013 – December 2022
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Spot price
Futures price 22 October 2019
Futures price MPR 3/19
Long-term sovereign yieldsTen-year government bonds. Percent. 1 Jan. 2018 – 22 Oct. 2019
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
US UK Germany Norway Sweden
MPR 3/19
Policy rates
7
Policy rate and estimated forward rates1). Percent.
22 October 2019 (solid line) and MPR 3/19 (broken line)
1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US
UK
Euro area policy rate
Euro area deposit facility rate²⁾
Sweden
Money market rates for Norway’s trading
partners
8
Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.
Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2022 Q4
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
40969 41699 42430 43160 43891 44621
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Forward rates MPR 3/19
Forward rates 22 October 2019
Three-month money market premium
9
Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 20221)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Norwegian money market premium
Projections MPR 3/19
1) Projections for 2019 Q4 – 2022 Q4.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
MPR 3/19
Banks’ mortgage rates
10
Nominal, floating interest rate. February 2015 – October 20191)
1) Bank rates through August 2019.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Outstanding mortgages New mortgages Policy rate
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
11
1 September 2018 – 22 October 2019
Source: Norges Bank
101
103
105
107
109
111
101
103
105
107
109
111
Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
I-44
Average Q4
Projections MPR 3/19
Stronger NOK
MPR 3/19
NOK against other currencies
12
Percentage movement in the exchange rate. 13 Sept. – 22 Oct. 2019
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
-6.3 %
-3.3 %
-2.7 %
-2.6 %
-2.3 %
-2.2 %
-1.9 %
-1.4 %
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2%
GBP
CAD
I44
EUR
USD
NZD
SEK
AUD
Weaker NOK
GDP mainland Norway
13
Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2016 – December 20191)
1) Projections for 2019 Q3 – 2019 Q4.
2) System for Averaging short-term Models, 21 October.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19
Monthly growthCirculated three-month growthProjections MPR 3/19
GDP forecast from SAM²⁾
Business tendency survey and PMI
14
Business tendency survey. Composite indicator. Net figures.
PMI. Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted. Feb. 2004 – Sept. 2019
Sources: DNB Markets, Norsk forbund for innkjøp og logistikk (NIMA) and Statistics Norway
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Business tendency survey (l.h.s.)
PMI (r.h.s.)
Private consumption
15
Private consumption for households and non-profit organisations.
Three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
June 2016 – August 2019
Source: Statistics Norway
-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19
Total consumption
Services consumption
Goods consumption
House prices
16
Monthly and twelve-month change. Percent. Jan. 2015 – Sept. 2019
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Monthly change, seasonally adjusted (l.h.s.)
Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)
Fiscal policyStructural non-oil deficit. Share of trend GDP for mainland Norway.
2013 – 20221)
1) Projections for 2021 – 2022.
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
4
5
6
7
8
9
4
5
6
7
8
9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Structural non-oil deficit Projections MPR 3/19
Unemployment
18
Shear of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Jan. 2012 – Dec. 20191)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Registered unemployment
Registered unemployment and labour market programme participants
LFS unemployment
Projections MPR 3/19
1) LFS through July. Projections for October – December 2019.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Inflation
19
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – December 20191)
1) Projections for October – December 2019.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI
CPI-ATE
Projections MPR 3/19
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
20
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – December 20191)
1) Projections for October – December 2019.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Imported consumer goods
Domestically produced goods and services
Projections MPR 3/19
SAM1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation
21
Four-quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2019 Q42)
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI-ATE
Projections MPR 3/19
SAM MPR 3/19
SAM 21 October 2019
1) System for Averaging short-term Models.
2) Projections for 2019 Q4.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING
23 OCTOBER 2019
top related