experience with modelling of runoff formation processes at basins of different scales using data of...
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Experience with modelling of runoff Experience with modelling of runoff formation processes at basins of formation processes at basins of
different scales using data different scales using data of of representative and experimental representative and experimental
watershedswatersheds
Olga Semenova
State Hydrological InstituteSt. Petersburg, Russia
1. Models need parameters values
2. The problem of heterogeneityExample: infiltration coefficient of the upper soil layer
3. Idealized representative slope
4. The problem of calibration
IntroductionIntroduction
Areal extent, m2 Cv
10-3 (filtration tube) 10
10-1 (field filtration device) 1
102 (sprinkling-machine) 0.1
105 (elementary watershed, estimation in inverse way by observations of precipitation and surface runoff)
0
Objectives:Objectives:
to demonstrate that using observational data of small jointly with the appropriate modelling algorithms gives the possibility to avoid the calibration procedure and transfer estimated parameters (without change for a given landscape zone) to other basins, including those with scarce availability of information.
Main principles of model developmentMain principles of model development
• Universality (response to PUB challenge)
• Balance between simple solutions and
adequate description of natural processes
• Apriori estimation and systematization of
main parameters (without calibration for
any new object)
• Routine forcing data
Deterministic Modelling Hydrological System Deterministic Modelling Hydrological System (DMHS or model “Hydrograph”, by Prof. Yu.B. Vinogradov)(DMHS or model “Hydrograph”, by Prof. Yu.B. Vinogradov)
Slope transformationof surface flow
Initial surfacelosses
Infiltration andsurface flow
Heat dynamicsin soil
Snow coverformation
Heat energy
Interception
Heat dynamicsin snow
Snow melt andwater yield
EvaporationWater dynamics in soil
Channel transformation
Runoff at basin outlet
Underground flow
Transformation of underground flow
PrecipitationRain Snow
DMHS featuresDMHS features•DistributedDistributed •Calculating interval – 24-hour or lessCalculating interval – 24-hour or less•Forcing dataForcing data – – precipitation, temperature and humidityprecipitation, temperature and humidity•OutputOutput – – runoff hydrograph, water balance elements, state variables of soil and runoff hydrograph, water balance elements, state variables of soil and
snow coversnow cover
DMHS key conceptsDMHS key concepts
•Concept of runoff formation complexes
•Concept of runoff
elements (see for details Vinogradov 2003, 2008)
DMHS parametersDMHS parameters• Soil properties
• Vegetation cover properties
• Slope surface
• Underground water
• Climate parameters
The spatial-computational The spatial-computational
schematization of the basinschematization of the basin
Suntar-Khayata
Lower Base
SuntarVostochnaya
meteorological stationrepresentative point
Runoff formation complexes
"golets" areamountain tundrasparse mountainlarsh forest
What do we need from small watersheds?What do we need from small watersheds?
• Observational data on representative basins to calibrate some model parameters
• Evaluation and systematization of the representative landscape properties (i.e. apriori assessment of model parameters)
•Understanding of the processes and its clear and proved explanation
•Understanding of the models and their objective and active evaluation
Mutual interaction between modellers and experimentalists
What do we need from experimentalists?What do we need from experimentalists?
Study objectsStudy objects
****
******Nizhnedevitskaya
Water Balance Station
Valday experimental station(research is still in progress)
Mogot experimental plot
Kolyma Water Balance Station
Suntar-Hayata range geophysical station
•Mild CLIMATE •Extreme
•Plain, hilly RELIEF •Mountainous
•Steppe LANDSCAPE •Tundra, taiga
•Seasonal PERMAFROST •Continuous
observed simulated
01.01.198401.07.198301.01.198301.07.198201.01.198201.07.1981
T,
gra
d C
20
15
10
5
0
PRELIMINARY RESULTSPRELIMINARY RESULTSI. I. Nizhnedevitskaya water balance stationNizhnedevitskaya water balance station
observed simulated
01.01.198401.09.198301.05.198301.01.198301.09.198201.05.198201.01.1982
T,
gra
d C
15
10
5
SOIL SOIL TEMPERATURETEMPERATURE
0.2 m0.2 m
0.8 m0.8 m
SNOW CHARACTERISTICSSNOW CHARACTERISTICS
ob served s imu l ated
01-03-198301-02-198301-01-198301-12-198201-11-1982
m
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Snow height at Nizhnedevitskaya observational stationSnow height at Nizhnedevitskaya observational station
SOIL MOISTURESOIL MOISTURE
S I M U L A T E D O B S E R V E D
01.198401.198301.198201.198101.198001.1979
mm
400
350
300
250
200
150
Stream Dolgy, area 2.51 kmStream Dolgy, area 2.51 km22, content of moisture in 1-m layer, content of moisture in 1-m layer
RUNOFFRUNOFF
OBSERVED CALCULATED
01.0101.1101.0901.0701.0501.0301.0101.1101.0901.0701.0501.03
m3/s
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
SIMULATED OBSERVED
01.0101.1201.1101.1001.0901.0801.0701.0601.0501.0401.0301.0201.0101.1201.1101.1001.0901.0801.0701.0601.0501.0401.0301.0201.01
m3/s
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Sosna river at Elec, Sosna river at Elec, area area 1630016300 km km22
Devica river at Tovarnya, Devica river at Tovarnya, area area 103103 km km22
II. Kolyma water balance stationII. Kolyma water balance station
SOIL SOIL TEMPERATURETEMPERATURE
0.4 m0.4 m
0.8 m0.8 m
OBSERVED S I MULATED
01.197810.197707.197704.197701.197710.197607.1976
gra
d,
C
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
OBSERVED S I MULATED
10.197904.197910.197804.197810.197704.197710.1976
gra
d,
C
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
RUNOFFRUNOFF
simulated observed
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q [m /sec]
Т
1977 1978
1979 1980
3
Yuzhny stream, area Yuzhny stream, area 0.270.27 km km22
Detrin at Vakhanka river mouthDetrin at Vakhanka river mouth, , area area 56305630 km km22
600
400
200
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
1000
500
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
800
600
400
200
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
800
600
400
200
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q
T
1977 1978
1979 1980
simulated observed
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q [m /sec]
Т
1977 1978
1979 1980
3
Kolyma at KolymskoyeKolyma at Kolymskoye, , basin area basin area 526000526000 km km22
30000
20000
10000
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
20000
15000
10000
5000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
20000
15000
10000
5000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q
T
1977 1978
1979 1980
1977 1978
1979 1980
simulated observed
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q [m /sec]
Т
1977 1978
1979 1980
3
SuntarSuntar at Sakharynia river mouthat Sakharynia river mouth, ,
area area 76807680 km km22 1000
800
600
400
200
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
1000
800
600
400
200
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
400
300
200
100
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
1500
1000
500
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q
T
1959 1960
1961 1962
1959 1960
1961 1962
simulated observed
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q [m /sec]
Т
1977 1978
1979 1980
3
III. Suntar-Hayata range experimental stationIII. Suntar-Hayata range experimental station
Yana at Dgangky, Yana at Dgangky, area area 216000216000 km km22
8000
6000
4000
2000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
6000
4000
2000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
6000
4000
2000
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
6000
4000
2000
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q
T
1970 1971
1972 1973
1970 1971
1972 1973
simulated observed
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q [m /sec]
Т
1977 1978
1979 1980
3
Nelka at Mogot, area Nelka at Mogot, area 30.830.8 km km22
simulated observed
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q [m /sec]
Т
1977 1978
1979 1980
3
III. Mogot experimental plotIII. Mogot experimental plot
4
3
2
1
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
6
5
4
3
2
1
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
4
3
2
1
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
6
4
2
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q, m3/s
T
1979 1980
1981 1982
1979 1980
1981 1982
Katyryk at TokoKatyryk at Toko, , basin area basin area 40.240.2 km km22
Рассчитанный Наблюденный
10
5
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
5
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
10
5
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
10
5
0 XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q
Т
1981 1982
1983 1984
Timpton at Nagorny, area Timpton at Nagorny, area 613613 km km22
100
50
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
100
50
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
250
200
150
100
50
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
200
150
100
50
0XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q
T
1977 1978
1979 1980
1977 1978
1979 1980
Uchur at Chyul’buUchur at Chyul’bu,,
area area 108000108000 km km22
15000
10000
5000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
15000
10000
5000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
10000
5000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
15000
10000
5000
XIIXIXIXVIIIVIIVIVIVIIIIII
Q
T
1981 1982
1983 1984
1981 1982
1983 1984
Statistics on observed vs simulated flow (averaged Statistics on observed vs simulated flow (averaged for all basins in Eastern Siberia)for all basins in Eastern Siberia)
Daily Year
Nash-Sutcliffe 0.78 0.93
Relative error (in absolute value)
36 % 10 %
ConclusionsConclusionsThe results aim to demonstrate the possibility of a single
hydrological model application for: (1)runoff simulations at large-scale basins, as well as for fine
time step representation of individual hydrological process at the local scale;
(2)simulation at various landscape and climate zones with different driving processes.
The observations should be carried in tight interaction with the development of hydrological models, i.e. the experiments and observations schemes and components are to be coordinated in order to be used in the adoption or rejection of current hydrological theories and assumptions.
Desired futureDesired future
REFERENCES (in English)REFERENCES (in English)
• Vinogradov, Yu.B., 2003a, River Runoff Modeling in Hydrological Cycle, edited by I.A. Shiklomanov, in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford, UK, [http://www.eolss.net]
• Vinogradov, Yu.B., 2003b, Runoff Generation and Storage in Watershed in Hydrological Cycle, edited by I.A. Shiklomanov, in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford, UK, [http://www.eolss.net]
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