exponentials and networks
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Exponentials And NetworksThe Existential Challenge Of Radical Innovation For The Enterprise
October 2014, Salerno, Italy
David OrbanCEO, Dotsub
Advisor & Faculty, Singularity University !
@davidorban @dotsub
@singularityu
1. Exponentials 2. Networks 3. Organizations 4. Principles 5. Q&A
Exponentials Intro To 2
x
..., 0.0625, 0.1250, 0.5000, 1, ...
..., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128
2000: First Human Genome at $3B
2014: Human Genome at $2K
Confusing
Obvious
2002
16%2004
14%
200612%
2008 10%
Networks From hierarchies to heterarchies
The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed yet
Exponential
Pyramids
archer10
Dreams
Network Age
jurvetson
Achievements
99%
1% 2%
98%
10.000 BC Today
terrestrial vertebrates in the wild
humans pets cattle
Anthropocene
AnthropoceneUnsustainable
myfavoritedinosaur.com, LadyofHats, OpenClips
Reason
Science
Hierarchy
Network
La tesi fondamentale della Network Society
1.!! Il cambiamento sociale ed economico può diffondersi solo quando si appoggia su una base tecnologica solida che la rende sostenibile.!!
2. ! Sono emerse tecnologie globali decentralizzate che ottengono risultati superiori rispetto a quelle centralizzate e gerarchiche.!!
3. ! Queste tecnologie inarrestabili minano alla base i pilastri che supportano lo Stato Nazione. L’organizzazione socioeconomica risultante è la Network Society.
David Orban – Network Society Project – http://netsoc.org
Network Society Pillars
Photovoltaics - Ecat?1. Energy
2. Manufacturing
3D hydroponics - Plantlab
plantlab
3. Food
4. Health
5. Learning
P2P Currency - Bitcoin
sylvar
6. Finance
7. Security
8. Policy
thecrazyfilmgirl
Unstoppable
Toolbox
Living In The Network Society
New Organizations
Empowerment
Emancipation
Experiential
Learning
Title TextBody Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three
Body Level Four Body Level Five
Overcoming Dichotomy
Sustainability For-Profit Nonprofit New
Economical ✔ ✘ ✔
Social & !Environmental ✘ ✔ ✔
Dignity
Spiking State of Alarm
Incumbent systems
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Bureaucracies
Resistant
http://bestandworstever.blogspot.it/2012/04/worst-playground-sign-ever.html
Precaution
http
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Panic
Overreaction
Overreaction
Overreaction
Overreaction
http
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It’s All OK
Proactionary
Organizations Networked exponentials
Questions
1. Who is an Entrepreneur?
2. Who is a Manager?
3. Who is a Creative (Designer, Engineer)?
The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has
decreased from 67 years in the 1920s to 15 years today.
Ten Times Better Performance
New Information Layers
HTML (text) VideoSocial Profiles
Location
Health Data
Sensor Networks
Internet of Things
Unexpected Consequences
Unanticipated Communications
Video has the broadest emotional bandwidth
90% of Global Traffic by 2015
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2010-2015
Over 60% of d
octors
learn from
online vid
eo
93% take acti
on after
viewing them
A billion people to have their own voice to contribute !to the dialog of the 21st Century, that is very empowering!”
Video Discovery
“shield of red shadows”
Unmanageable Complexity
Unprecedented Value
PrinciplesSome
Transparency
Identity
Trust
Anybody where time
{
Open Source Distributed
Decentralized
Searching
Topic Area
Dept
h of
Exp
lora
tion
A B C
1
2
…
∞
3
… ∞
Solution Search Space
Depth First Search Strategy
A B C
1
2
3
4
5
Topic Area
Dept
h of
Exp
lora
tion
… ∞
Breadth First Search Strategy
A B C D E
1
2
3
Topic Area
Dept
h of
Exp
lora
tion
…
∞
David Gelb
Winning strategy – Jiro Ono
A B C
1
2
…
∞
sushi!
Topic Area
Dept
h of
Exp
lora
tion
Michelin 3-star restaurateur in Tokyo, protagonist of the documentary “Jiro Dreams of Sushi”
3
… ∞
cosimoorban
Winning strategy – Richard Saul Wurman
A B … ∞
1
2
design!
Topic Area
Dept
h of
Exp
lora
tion
Architect, designer, author of over 80 books, coined “Information architecture”, and created TED
…
∞
3
C
Trying
The Privilege of Failure
• Social Networks
• Global markets
• Location
• Mobile
“The formula for success? Double your rate of failure.”
Thomas J. Watson, IBM
“The Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success”
Cory Doctorow
The Privilege of Failure
Innovating
Inventing
Questions
Answers
Ignorance
Competitiveness
Innovation
Invention!
Adapting
Adopting
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