fast forwarding to a world of on-demand air transportation · 5/15/2017 · min vtol range [m] 20...
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Jon PetersenHead of Data Science, Advanced ProgramsUber Technologies
Fast Forwarding to a World of On-Demand Air Transportation
Smart Urban Transportation Forum IMA University of Minnesota
May 15, 2017
Rich problems
dynamic pricing
revenue management
uberPOOL
uberEATS
spatio-temporal forecasting
driver positioning
stochastic routing
map matching many more…
dispatch
latent demand modeling
anomaly detection
Uber Elevate
Noise
Speed
EfficiencyEmissions
Safety (thus cost)
Over a dozen VTOL companies developing prototypes to deploy within the next three years
Volocopter
Ehang
Lilium Zee.Aero
A^3/AirbusJoby Aviation
Very quiet compared with combustion engines, Many rotors -> lower tip speedInherently safer: Redundancy is tolerant of failures, partial autonomy2X safer than drivingEmissions: Electric has zero operational emissions10x more efficient: 3-4x improvement from tiltrotor, 3x improvement in fixed wing
Distributed Electric Propulsion + Fixed Wing
Vehicle Designs
multicopter autogyro helicopter co-axial helicopter
compound helicopter lift + cruise vectored
thrust tilt duct tilt wing tilt rotor
en-route cruise speed [mph] 50 100 100 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
lift/drag 1.5 3.5 4.25 5.5 9 10 10 10 12 14
disc-loading [lbs/ft2] 3.75 3.75 4.5 7 4.5 15 40 40 15 15
FOM 0.60 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.60 0.50 0.60 0.65 0.65
empty weight/gross weight 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65
en-route energy [kwH/mile] 6.07 2.6 2.14 1.65 1.01 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.76 0.65
efficient cruise
efficient takeoff & landing
Where to build infrastructure?
What are the network dynamics?
What does a good network need?
Flux Optimizer Beyond the Vehicle…
1. Estimate Demand
2. Generate Candidate Hubs
3. Hub Optimization
4. VTOL Route Optimization
Flux Optimizer Under the Hood
1. Estimate Demand
2. Generate Candidate Hubs
3. Hub Optimization
4. VTOL Route Optimization
k-means clustering on trip points
centroids define candidate hubs
also supports hubs defined by the user
Flux Optimizer Under the Hood
1. Estimate Demand
2. Generate Candidate Hubs
3. Hub Optimization
4. VTOL Route Optimization
An itinerary (o,d,i,j) is valid if the time saved s(o,d,i,j) exceeds some threshold s*:
maximize time savings of all riders
s(o, d, i, j) = x(o, d)| {z }ground time
�
2
4⌧(o, i) + ⌧(L) + ⌧(i, j) + +⌧(U) + ⌧(j, d)| {z }
VTOL time
3
5
� s
⇤x(o, d)
GOALFlux Optimizer Under the Hood
1. Estimate Demand
2. Generate Candidate Hubs
3. Hub Optimization
4. VTOL Route Optimization
• all eligible VTOL itineraries • set of candidate hubs H • user inputs
Optimize subset of hubs H* to maximize coverage
GIVENFlux Optimizer Under the Hood
1. Estimate Demand
2. Generate Candidate Hubs
3. Hub Optimization
4. VTOL Route Optimization
• optimal hub placements • trips
Flux Optimizer Under the Hood
DECIDE• sequence of flight legs • assign riders to VTOLs • when/where/how much to recharge • when/where to deadhead • when to depart (savings vs. load)
GIVEN
Hub Optimization
DFW Hub OptimizationDFW
DFW Rolling Out InfrastructureDFW
1, 2
Rider Coverage = 15.2%+ 3, 4, 5 + 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Rider Coverage = 42.2% Rider Coverage = 47.3%
Dubai Hub OptimizationDubai
2 Hubs 5 Hubs 10 Hubs 50 Hubs
86%52%23% 69%
% Trip Coverage
Minneapolis/St. Paul Hub OptimizationMinneapolis/St. Paul
VTOL Route Optimization
VTOL Routing ModelMulticommodity Network Flow Model
VTOL Routing Modelground arcs (battery charging)
Better modeling approach:identify path P that is a minimum cover
valid for (v,P)
then lift following arcs following the final arc in P following arcs following the final arc in
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
20050
2 43 5 6
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
150
1.7
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30 3520 25 40 - 100
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
20050
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
150
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
40
30
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
3
3520 25DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
40 - 100
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
20050
2 43 5 6
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
150
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi! 2 mi!
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30 3520 25
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
Demand may be met using ~ 40% of vehicle capacity
Load factor ~ 1.55 per flight
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
20050
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
150
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
# OF HUB
ASCEND
DECEND
eVTOL RANGE
AIRSPACE SEP.
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
170
5
1.0
15
1 2 43 5 6
20
DALLAS, TX
5
75 sec
45 sec
20-120 mi
! 2 mi
40
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
EN-ROUTE SPEED
MINIMUM GROUND TIME
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
RECHARGE MINUTES
15
3
50
35
2
0.3
20 25
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
10
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi! 2 mi!
SEAT COUNT
1 2
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100SEAT COUNT
2 3
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
EN-ROUTE SPEED
MINIMUM GROUND TIME
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
RECHARGE MINUTES
3 4
100
20
0.7MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
OU
TPU
T
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
4
200
6
100
20 25 30
0.7 1.3
150
1.7MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
SEAT COUNT
4 5 6
OU
TPU
T
most sharing of VTOLs is attained with 3 seats
routes with highest load factors
Frisco DFW Downtown Dallas
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
20050
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
150
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
3
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
40
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30SEAT COUNT
3520 25DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
[mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
1 2 43 5 6
1.3
2010
5
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
1
3 4
50
2 43 5 6
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
150
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi! 2 mi!
5 min MGT- Las Colinas
[min]
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
OU
TPU
T
[mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
1.3
[min]
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
200
1.7
3 min MGT+ North Denton
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
20050
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
150
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
20050
3
100 150
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
40
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30SEAT COUNT
1 2 43 5
35
6
20 25DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
[mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
1 2 43 5 6
2010
5
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MINIMUM GROUND TIME
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
3 4
50
2 6
100
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
150
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi! 2 mi!
170 mph cruise
[min]
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
200
1.7
[min]
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
200
1.7
[min]
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
[20-90%]
200
1.7
200 mph cruise
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
20 25 30
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170 20050 100 150
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [m]
15
SEAT COUNT
1 2 43 5 6
20 25 30
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
40
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
20
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30 3520 25DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi! 2 mi!
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [m]
SEAT COUNT# OF HUB
ASCEND
DECEND
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
INP
UT
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [m]
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
2 43 5 6
2 6
0.70.3 1.3 1.7MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
eVTOL RANGE
AIRSPACE SEP.
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15 20 25 30
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170 20050 100 150zz
Charging only at mega vertiports RIDERS SERVED
- 4.0%TIME SAVED
+ 0.0%
eVTOL UTILIZATION
- 2.3%DEADHEADS PER eVTOL
+0.5%LOAD FACTOR
+1.5%
-17%BATTERY CHARGE AT LANDING
OU
TPU
TO
UTP
UT
OU
TPU
T
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170 20050 100 150
15 20 25 30RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
1.7
DALLAS, TX
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
20-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170 20050 100 150
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
20 25 30
eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]
30
MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]
5
TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]
1.0
RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]
15
SEAT COUNT
1
3 4
2 43 5
35
6
2 6
0.70.3 1.3
20 25
1.7
DUBAI, UAE
# OF HUB
5
ASCEND
75 sec
DECEND
45 sec
eVTOL RANGE
10-120 mi
AIRSPACE SEP.
! 2 mi
OU
TPU
T
INP
UT
AS
SU
MP
TIO
NS
40 - 100
EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]
170 20050 100 150
MIN VTOL RANGE [m]
2010
MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]
4030 45 5035 55
20 25 30
DUBAI, UAE# VTOLs Rider Capacity Minimum Ground Time
Cruise Speed Trip Volume (Rider Savings) Min Rider Savings
What if pick-up times were longer?Simulate ETAs +10%, +25%, +50%
vehicle design (speed, battery consumption)
Incorporating stochasticity
Ongoing & Future Work
Air Traffic Management
VTOL travel times
latent demand
Flight planning for noise abatement
Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management (UTM)
Irregular Operations
Marketplace Optimization: Pricing, Dispatch, Pooling
www.uber.com/info/elevate/
www.uber.com/info/elevate/summit/
more about Uber Elevate:
Uber Elevate summit videos:
Questions, comments: petersen@uber.com
Thanks!
Questions?
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