fastest declining occupations
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WORKFORCE 2010-2020
Board of Trustees’ RetreatNovember 16, 2004
“We cannot produce twenty-first century knowledge workers in nineteenth century public school, early-twentieth century higher education institutions, or mid-twentieth century federal job training programs.”
Workforce 2020
Overview
Forces shaping the workforce landscape
U.S. & Minnesota Jobs Models and tools for assessing
higher education response Next steps
Components for Future of Minnesota Workforce
POPULATIONTRENDS
WorkforceNeeds
Education
Future
Forces Shaping The American Economy
Rapid technological change Global integration – the rest of the
world matters; outsourcing will continue Rapid economic growth in certain
nations Deregulation and liberalization Demographic change Technological change - automation
Rising To The Challenges Of Workforce 2020
Labor market will demand highly educated workers
Low skilled jobs that can be done elsewhere will disappear in U.S.
New technology and global competition will create unprecedented volatility in the world of work
Work environments will improve Workplace will be increasingly diverse
Will There Be A Skills Gap?
Skill levels in language, mathematics, and reasoning development need improvement
Productivity and quality of life dependent on a more highly skilled, educated workforce
Declining jobs, declining skill levels Expanding occupations, high skills
What are the effects of these trends that you witness in your business or other areas of your life?
Trends in Occupations
The 10 Occupations With The Largest Job Growth, 2002-12 Percent & Education Or Training
1. Registered nurses 2. Postsecondary teachers 3. Retail salespersons4. Customer service
representative5. Combined food preparation
and serving workers, including fast food
6. Cashiers, except gaming 7. Janitors and cleaners, except
maids and housekeeping cleaners
8. General and operations managers
9. Waiters and waitresses 10. Nursing aides, orderlies, and
attendants
1. 27% Associate degree 2. 38% Doctoral degree 3. 15% Short-term on-the-job training 4. 24% Moderate-term on-the-job
training 5. 23% Short-term on-the-job training
6. 18% Short-term on-the-job training7. 13% Short-term on-the-job training
8. 18% Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
9. 18% Short-term on-the-job training10. 25% Short-term on-the-job
training
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fastest Growing Occupations2000-2012
Medical assistants Network systems and data
communications analysts Physician assistants Social and human service
assistants Home health aides Medical records and health
information technicians Physical therapist aides Computer software engineers,
applications Computer software engineers,
systems software Physical therapist assistants
Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors
Database administrators Veterinary technologists
and technicians Hazardous materials
removal workers Dental hygienists Occupational therapist aides
Dental assistants Personal and home care
aides Self-enrichment education
teachers Computer systems analysts
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fastest Declining Occupations2000-2012
Telephone operators Word processors and typists Textile knitting and weaving machine
setters, operators, and tenders Sewing machine operators Shuttle car operators Textile winding, twisting, and drawing
out machine setters, operators, and tenders
Radio mechanics Textile bleaching and dyeing machine
operators and tenders Roof bolters, mining Fishers and related fishing workers Shoe machine operators and tenders All other communications equipment
operators
Fabric and apparel patternmakers Railroad brake, signal, and switch
operators Textile cutting machine setters,
operators, and tenders Sewers, hand Farmers and ranchers Continuous mining machine operators Electrical and electronic equipment
assemblers Bridge and lock tenders Computer operators Shoe and leather workers and repairers Brokerage clerks Loan interviewers and clerks Meter readers, utilities
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Minnesota Outlook
Minnesota Is Bigger, Older And Better Educated: 1960-2000
3.4 million
28.5
37.6%
1.2%
7.5%
4.9 million
35.4
26.2%
11.8%
27.4%
Source: University of Minnesota
1960 2000
Population
Median Age
Under age 18
Percent minority
4+ years of college
Educational Attainment Migration Patterns Diversity & Education Population Distribution Earnings by Educational
Attainment Aging of the Baby Boomers
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Minnesota Themes
Minnesota Education Attainment Rose Sharply In The 90s
-22.0%
-0.1%
44.1%
2.5%
40.3%
51.8%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Less Than HighSchool
High School
Some College
Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or Prof Degree
Percent Change 90-00 In Population 25+
2000 Census
Net Migration To Minnesota By Educational Attainment For People Age 25 And Older
16,400
10,000
9,500
14,900
9,700
02,000
4,0006,000
8,00010,000
12,00014,000
16,00018,000
20,000
Less than HighSchool
High School
Some College
Bachelors Degree
Advanced Degree
2000 Census PUMS 5%
Growth In Minority Population Accounted For More Than 100% Of Minnesota’s
Increase In 18-24 Year Olds 1990-2000
442,809
31,916
470,434
72,220
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Total Minority
1990
2000
1990 & 2000 Census
Education Attainment Population 25 To 34
16.1%
27.5%
7.6%
34.5%
11.7%
31.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
% less thanHigh School
% Bachelorsor more
MnStd to US MinorityPopulation
Mn
US
2000 Census
Percent Of Population 18 To 24 Enrolled In Higher Education
38%
22%
21%
41%
13%
36%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
White
Black
American Indian
Asian
Latino
Total
Percent Enrolled In Higher Education2000 Census PUMS 5%
Lost Population
Gained Population
Population Change 1920 To 2000Source U.S. Census
State: +63,555
-2,959 to -60 -60 to 300 300 to 9,343
Projected change in population 15 to 242000 to 2010
Nearly 3/5ths of the State’s labor force lives in the 7-county Twin Cities Region
R e g i o n a l L a b o r F o r c e D i s t r i b u t i o nS e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 4
N o r t h w e s t
10 %N o r t h e a s t
6 %
C e n t r a l
11%
S o u t h w e s t
7 %
S o u t h e a s t
9 %
M e t r o
5 7 %
Source: LAUS, DEED-LMI
Total Annual Earnings, Currently Employed Minnesotans Age 25 to 54
$20,000
$26,000
$30,000
$38,000
$46,000
$57,000
$0
$10,
000
$20,0
00
$30,0
00
$40,
000
$50,0
00
$60,0
00
$70,0
00
$80,0
00
Less Than HighSchool
High School Diploma
Some College
Bachelors Degree
Masters Degree
Advanced Degree
2000 Census PUMS 5%
Projections for 2010—Labor Force
• Labor force will increase to a range of 2.9 mil and 3.1 mil, increases of between 7% and 16%.
• Uncertainty about labor force growth results from uncertainty about migration and labor force participation, especially over 60.
• Most growth will be among 45 to 64 (increase of 32% to 39%). Age 24 to 44 will see a decline as much as 10%.
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Projected Labor Force--2003
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Census
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
State Demographer projections
After 2010, Most Population Growth In Minnesota Will Be In People Age 65+
26%23%
9%16%
60%
95%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Ra
tio
Ch
an
g 6
5+
to
To
tal
Po
pu
lati
on
State Demographer projection
Age 25 to 34 Percent With Less Than High School Diploma
7.6%
42.2%
4.3%
18.6%
22.6%
15.9%
16.1%
43.6%
9.0%
18.7%
20.6%
10.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Total
Latino
White Not Hisp
Black, Not Hisp
Am Indian, Not Hisp
Asian, Not Hisp
United States
Minnesota
2000 Census
Educational Attainment Rises
24.8%
20.3%17.6%
21.8%19.6%
24.4%
12.1%
27.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
US LessThan High
School
USBachelorsDegree or
More
Mn LessThan High
School
MnBachelorsDegree or
More
Per
cen
t O
f P
op
ula
tio
n 2
5+
1990
2000
The Level of Future Economic Growth Will Depend Ever More On A Highly Productive
Labor Force
• Slower growth of the labor force will place more importance on increasing per worker productivity
• Minnesota’s labor force growth will depend largely on continued activity of older workers and migration to the state
• Training of young Minnesotan’s, retraining of older workers and training and certifications of migrants will be key roles of education
Occupational Trends in Minnesota Over 70 percent of Minnesotans work in
service-producing industries Service and retail trade industries are
projected to add the most jobs in Minnesota between 2000 and 2010
Sales, information technology, office and health occupations are projected to add the most jobs.
While short-term OJT jobs are booming, jobs requiring Bachelor’s or Associate’s degree are the fastest growing.
How is MnSCU responding to the need to be more responsive to workforce needs?
Models and Tools for Aligning Workforce Needs and Higher Education
Visits with Business and Industry Competitive grants for curricular
development in high need areas Matched Leveraged equipment grants
(previous funding cycle) Federal agenda to secure additional outside
funding Coordination with key industries such as
Allied Health Models to target highest need areas
MnSCU- College and University Planning Profile System
DEED- High need clusters Minnesota High Tech Association study
Business and Industry Visits
Changing Workplace Image and Public Perception Community Vitality System Efficiencies Relationship with Secondary
Education
Business and Industry: What is Working Business and industry partnerships Customized training; nimbleness and
responsiveness Services to dislocated workers Customer service Provision of positive learning
environments and education for students Businesses like to hire our graduates
after internships and mentoring experiences
Themes Employers need training for incumbent
workers , new workers at speed as soon as possible. Increases in supervisory management Soft skill management and leadership training Industry safety Health Computer training
Downturns and upswings impact students’ perceptions of a field
Increasing the customizing of training delivery
MnSCU Assessment: CUPPSStatewide Current Shortage Clusters
Cluster Employment ShortageEntry Hourly
Wage
Health 102,260 -7,203 $17.65
Education 52,805 -1,296 $16.08
Information Technology
34,581 -3,507 $19.20
Mechanics 20,894 -1,256 $14.16
Business andFinancial Services
259,666 -9,584 $16.64
Department of Employment and Economic Development
Key Industries, Key Occupations, Key Skills in the Twin Cities
Health care Finance and insurance Professional and technical Transportation High tech manufacturing
Next StepsTransform Higher Education
Strengthen the quality of early education Keep quality high Deal with high levels of remediation Provide good information about job
market and education required Deal with the mismatch between higher
education and the economy Monitor and respond to labor market demands Create array of options for life long learning
Vision for the Future5-year Market Responsive Goals
Trainers of choice for local businesses
Business involvement in strategic plans-specific job needs
Career-ladder degrees Blur lines between credit
and noncredit courses Flexible training and
delivery systems One-stop centers Collaboration between
colleges
Creation of bridge programs K-16 for seamless service
Center of excellence Develop set of economic goals
and objectives by the community
Workforce investment boards develop regional economic centers at colleges
Small businesses create contracts with colleges
Return on investment from market responsive colleges is equal to regional development
21st Century Community CollegeSeptember 2004
What is the vision for MnSCU in relation to market responsiveness?
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