federal election journal: our industry, our democracy
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• Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Federal Election Journal:
Our Industry, Our Democracy.
Christian BourqueResearch Vice-President and Senior Partner
2 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
In an Nutshell
A look back in time
How our industry saw the campaign
How well we did: Do we deserve an A or a C?
Voter Behaviour: Exit Poll Research and the Ballot Box Bonus
Final thoughts …
3 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Do You Remember Back Then …
4 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
The Industry Was Mostly Right in 2006
Conservatives Liberals NDP BQ Green
SES Research 36% 30% 17% 11% 6%
Leger 38 29 17 11 4
Decima 37 27 19 11 5
Ekos 37 27 20 12 5
Strategic Counsel 37 27 19 11 6
Ipsos 39 27 19 12 4
Average 37.3 27.8 18.5 11.3 5.0
Election result 36 30 18 11 5
5 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Lots of Talk, Lots of Surveys, Little Movement
6 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
The Writ is Dropped!
Date Conservatives Liberals NDP BQ Green
Angus Reid 9-12 39% 23% 18% 9% 10%
Ekos 9-11 36 26 19 8 9
Harris-Decima 9-11 41 26 14 8 9
Ipsos 9-11 38 29 13 8 11
Leger 9-12 39 30 15 8 8
Nanos 9-11 38 31 14 9 9
Average 38.5 27.5 15.5 8.2 9.3
7 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
On Average, the Patient Was Dead
Wikipedia
8 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Let’s Agree on an A-
OK … B+
9 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
We All Said Conservative Minority
Date Conservatives Liberals NDP BQ Green
Angus Reid 10-13 37% 27% 20% 9% 7%
Leger 10-11 36 27 20 8 9
Ekos 10-13 35 26 19 10 10
Harris-Decima 10-12 34 25 19 11 9
Ipsos 10-09 34 29 18 9 8
Nanos 9-11 34 27 21 10 8
Strategic Counsel
10-11 33 28 18 10 11
Average 34.7 27.0 19.3 9.6 8.9
Election result 10-14 37.6 26.2 18.2 10 6.8
10 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
La Belle Province
11 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Back to the Future On average, in 2006, except for Leger and Crop, the industry was 7
points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 42% - Leger 40%, Crop 44%)
On average, in 2008, except for Leger, the industry was 8 points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 38% - Leger 37%)
Is there such a thing as a massive stampede of Quebec headless chickens leaving the BQ in the last 24 hours of a campaign each and every election?
The short answer: Massive spread in response rates between francophones and non-francophones
Overnight field windows do not capture more discreet voters
The issue of accents
If you don’t weight by language most used in household … you are toast!
12 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
The Exit Poll and How it Answers ‘What changed’
Or the Ballot Box Bonus Hypothesis
13 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Methodology
On-line survey, using the Legerweb.com panel, conducted between 6:00 and 9:30 Eastern on October 14th, among respondents who said they had voted at the election.
National sample of 4,524 Canadians (18+) of all regions. Data was weighted by region only.
14 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
The Ultimate Moment of Decision
Total Cons. Liberals NDP BQ Green
Before the beginning of the campaign
44% 60% 38% 35% 47% 28%
Between the start… and debates
17 14 17 23 17 17
Right after the debate 11 8 14 10 10 19
Over the last weekend 12 7 16 15 10 17
Today, before heading to the polling station
8 6 6 10 8 12
Today, in the polling booth itself
7 4 7 8 9 6
When, exactly, did you decide to support this political party?
15 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
No Issue Election ?
What is the issue that had the most impact on your decision to vote for this party?
-Single mention-
21%13%
12%5%
4%4%
3%3%3%
1%26%
5%No answerOther
Help to workersIn favour of Qc sovereignty
Young offenders' actCuts to culture
Tax cutsNational unity
Help to families \ povertyMoral \ legal
Environment \ climate changeThe economy\financial crisis
16 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Canadians Vote for Losers!
Total Cons. Liberals NDP BQ Green
Conservatives 74% 94% 63% 64% 72% 64%
Liberals 11 1 23 14 13 14
NDP 2 1 0 6 2 6
Green 0 0 0 0 0 2
Don’t know\Not sure 12 4 14 16 12 15
Which party do you think will win the election?
17 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Canadians Vote for Losers!
Total Liberals NDP BQ Green
For party 63% 55% 68% 64% 72%
ABC 35 43 29 34 26
NDP 2 2 2 2 2
Did you essentially vote FOR (insert vote) or vote AGAINST the conservatives?
(Base: 2707)
18 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
Final Thoughts …
19 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
See you in two years! We can all agree our industry is in good shape overall.
We need fine-tuning, not an overhaul!
If the dials don’t move, why do we do rolling polls published every morning? How does that help our industry? Over-interpretation by the media
We are about the campaign but not the campaign
‘Liberals Free-Falling: New Poll Shows’ (down 2% based on n=400)
How can we refine our art? Should we move to a likely voter model? Since our political participation is as
laughable as the US, should we adopt their strategy?
Should our weighting schemes evolve to account for how Canada has changed?
Are we ready to consider hybrid of fully on-line methodologies?
• Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa
To get the results you have never had, you need to do what you have never done
04/22/23
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