fema’s recent lessons: gis modeling and analytics

FEMA’s Recent Lessons: GIS Modeling and

Analytics

MOTF Analytics Briefing

Doug Bausch, Douglas.Bausch@dhs.gov

April 1st, 2015

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov 2

FEMA’s Modeling Task Force (MOTF)

On-call, distributed analysis • Real-time analysis to affect decisions

• Some pre-analysis

Ground-Truthing

• Field observations

• Imagery based assessments

Applications

Sandy, Katrina examples

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

MOTF Aligns to NRCC Organization

3

Situational Awareness

Section Chief

Geospatial and Technical Group

Supervisor

GIS Unit Leader Technical Unit

Leader Modeling Task Force (MOTF)

Remote Support:

Denver, CO

MOTF

NRCC & Regions

Academia & Applied

Research

DHS S&T/National

Labs

State & Local Field

Observations Data Collection

Remote Sensing

Other Federal Agencies

(USGS, NHC, USACE)

MOTF

NRCC Situational Awareness

Rental Assistance

State/local partners

Housing Task Force

Power Task Force

FEMA Regions

Public Assistance

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov HAZUS - Role of

Clearinghouses

June

19th, 2007

Benefits of Depth Grids

Cost effective approach when good terrain and flood surface data are available

Data collection focus=HWM and DEM (lidar)

Can be generated from pre-event modeling and scenarios

Supports multiple phases of disaster response. Access determinations, expedited aid, etc.

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

• “Ground-truthed” depth grid

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

Oct 26 Oct 29 Nov 1 Nov 5 Nov 7 Nov 11

Hurricane Sandy MOTF Timeline

NRCC Activation,

USGS Deployment Hurricane Sandy County

Risk Matrix

Landfall Migration to impact

analysis, Hindcast

SLOSH, portal updates

Hybrid hindcast

SLOSH, preliminary

HWM observations

(±150), expedited

rental assistance,

portal updates

Field verified inundation

(±300 observations),

medium resolution,

portal, expedited

assistance, NFIP

updates

Field verified inundation

(±1,000 observations),

high resolution, LiDAR-

based, major portal,

expedited assistance,

NFIP updates

High resolution (3 ft

LiDAR) observed

inundation NYC,

Nor’easter surge

modeling

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

Individual Assistance Damage Levels

Housing Task

Force

Building

Inspection

Response

Substantial

Damage

Estimation

Debris

Estimation

Inundation

Model to

Observations

Imagery

Assessment

IA Inspection

(FVL)

Affected

Minor

Major

Destroyed

Affected

Assessment

Source Applications

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

Extensive

metadata and

download

link: https://content.fem

adata.com/

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

Hurricane Sandy County Impact Analysis

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

Sandy, 2012: Field Observed

Flood Surface

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Sandy 2012: Expedited Assistance

-44K households identified as damaged and inaccessible

-Over $130M in expedited assistance based on accurate and rapid flood depth information

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

Analysis for NFIP Impacts Flood depths assigned to

200,000+ policies

Integrated into request to increase borrowing authority – $9.7 billion

FEMA-MOTF@fema.dhs.gov

Questions?

Lessons?

Ground-truthing—Obtaining and incorporating field based observations

Requires year round dedicated effort—pre-analysis, coordination, methodology, product development and calibration.