financial forecast fiscal years 2019-2024f… · overview •financial forecast •operating &...

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Monday, February 11, 2019

Financial Forecast

Fiscal Years 2019-2024Policy 4:10

Overview

• Financial Forecast• Operating & Non-Operating Funds

• Revenue and Expenditures

• Assumptions• EAV, Property Taxes, CPI, Proration,

Pensions

• Evidence Based Funding

• Future Activities

2

3

Operating Funds Forecast

FORECAST

Operating Funds - Projection Analysis

Budget

FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024

REVENUE

Local 282,917,954 293,658,377 301,695,499 309,755,396 317,706,371 325,785,844

State 49,399,548 52,527,434 53,327,434 54,127,434 54,927,434 55,727,434

Federal 9,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737

TOTAL REVENUE 342,238,239 357,106,548 365,943,670 374,803,567 383,554,542 392,434,015

EXPENDITURES

Salaries & benefits 258,150,007 268,055,130 277,370,602 287,173,041 294,953,771 303,000,685

Other 82,177,539 86,276,933 84,920,926 85,686,168 85,476,716 85,793,074

TOTAL EXPENDITURES 340,327,546 354,332,063 362,291,528 372,859,209 380,430,487 388,793,759

EXCESS / DEFICIT 1,910,693 2,774,485 3,652,142 1,944,358 3,124,055 3,640,256

Other Financing Sources (Uses) - - - - - - -

EXCESS / DEFICIT & OTHER FINANCING 1,910,693 2,774,485 3,652,142 1,944,358 3,124,055 3,640,256

Reductions

Net excess (deficit) after reductions 1,910,693 2,774,485 3,652,142 1,944,358 3,124,055 3,640,256

Beginning Fund Balance 109,572,941 111,483,634 114,258,119 117,910,261 119,854,619 122,978,675

Ending Fund Balance 111,483,634 114,258,119 117,910,261 119,854,619 122,978,675 126,618,931

Fund Balance as % of Revenues 32.57% 32.00% 32.22% 31.98% 32.06% 32.27%

REVENUE / EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS

Forecast

Indian Prairie CUSD 204

Non-Operating Forecast

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Bond and Capital - Projection Analysis

Budget

FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022

Revenue:

Local 28,241,159 28,191,203 28,182,267 28,220,384

State - - - -

Federal - - - -

Total 28,241,159 28,191,203 28,182,267 28,220,384

Expenditures:

Capital Outlay 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000

Bond and Interest 26,564,764 26,681,284 26,668,622 26,688,594

Total 28,564,764 28,681,284 28,668,622 28,688,594

Excess/(Deficit) (323,605) (490,081) (486,355) (468,210)

Other financing sources 1,061,000 3,525,000 -

Change in Fund Balance 737,395 3,034,919 (486,355) (468,210)

Beginning Fund Balance 22,712,716 23,450,111 26,485,030 25,998,675

Ending Fund Balance 23,450,111 26,485,030 25,998,675 25,530,465 Fund Balance as % of Revenues 83.0% 93.9% 92.3% 90.5%

REVENUE / EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS

Forecast

5

Revenues

Property Taxes78%

Other Local Revenue

5%

Evidence Based Funding

11%

Other State Revenue

3%

Federal Revenue3%

Budgeted Revenue Allocation by Source

6

Salaries62%

Employee Benefits13%

Purchased Services14%

Supplies and Materials

4%

Capital Outlay2%

Other Objects3%

Non-Capitalized Equipment

2%

Expenditure Allocation by Object

Expenditures

• Salaries aligned to collective bargaining agreements

• Health benefits increased by 6%

• Special Education Out-of-District tuition increased by 7%

• All consumables increased by Consumer Price Index

• Operations and Maintenance Capital Outlay set at $7M

• Transportation Purchased Services increased 8%

• We continue to monitor the possibility of additional costs due to unfunded State mandates– Pension cost shift: Full cost shift = $14.8M

– State minimum wage increases

7

Expenditures Cont.

8

New Property

38.4 42.4

56.9

65.1

60.4

80.5

55.0 55.0

45.0 45.0 45.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Millio

ns

New EAV Growth

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Existing EAV Change

0.18%

3.55%

4.71%

3.57%

3.05%

3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Existing EAV % Change

Total EAV Change

10

1.13%

4.80%

6.08%

4.77%4.57% 4.50% 4.45%

4.25% 4.22% 4.19%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Total EAV % Change

Equalized Assessed Valuation

11

4,483.3 4,533.9 4,751.6

5,040.6 5,281.1

5,522.6 5,770.9

6,027.9 6,283.9

6,548.8 6,823.0

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

8,000.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Millio

ns

Total EAV Analysis

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Consumer Price Index

1.70%

1.50%

0.80%0.70%

2.10% 2.10%

1.90%2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Consumer Price Index

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Assumptions – Tax Rate

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Non-Capped Rate 0.6238 0.6192 0.5916 0.5431 0.5113 0.4935 0.4769 0.4572 0.4392 0.4137 0.3741

Capped Rate 5.3320 5.4584 5.2589 5.0573 4.9854 4.9394 4.8631 4.7926 4.7231 4.6547 4.5872

0.0000

1.0000

2.0000

3.0000

4.0000

5.0000

6.0000

7.0000

Total Tax Rate

Capped Rate Non-Capped Rate

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

General State Aid / Evidence Based Funding

Foundation Formula Evidence Based Funding

Evidence Based Funding

15

Queen Bee ESD $183

West Chicago HSD $361

West Chicago ESD $473

Naperville 203 $1

IPSD 204 $28

EBF New Tier $ Per Pupil

16

Evidence Based Funding- Elements

Per Student

12 Gifted

13 Professional Development

14 Instructional Materials

15 Assessment

16 Computer Technology

17 Student Activities

Central Services

18 Maintenance and Oper

19 Central Office

20 Employee Benefits

Diverse Learners

21a Intervention (Poverty)

21b Intervention (EL)

22a Pupil Support (Poverty)

22b Pupil Support (EL)

23a Extended Day (Poverty)

23b Extended Day (EL)

24a Summer Sch (Poverty)

24b Summer Sch (/EL)

25 English Learners (EL)

26a Special Ed Teachers

26b Psychologist

26c Special Ed Instructional Asst

Core FTE

1a Core Teachers K-3 (Low Income)

1b Core Teachers K-3

1c Core Teachers 4-8 (Low Income)

1d Core Teachers 4-8

2a Core Teachers 9-12 (Low Income)

2b Core Teachers 9-12

3 Specialist Teachers

4 Instructional Facilitators

5 Core Intervention Teachers

6 Substitutes

7a Core Guidance

7b Nurse

8 Supervisory Aides

9a Librarian

9b Library Aide/Media Tech

10a Principal

10b Asst Principal

11 School Site Staff

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Future Activities

• Continue to monitor assumptions

• Monitor State of Illinois funding, pension cost shift and minimum wage legislation

• Determine EBF elements to implement

• Continued Board of Education updates

• Forecast transition to Tentative Budget early spring