fire management, minimizing risk tivissa, june 2014 skogbrannseminar presentasjoner... · 600 ha900...

Fire management, minimizing risk

Tivissa, June 2014

8 pm Analysis considerations:

• A lot of uncertainty. Remote fire in a non managed area for 50 years, after 1967 fire. Fuel type

• Fire starting at 5:34 pm due to lightning. 60 km/h wind forectas at night. Before sunset only 22% fire perimeter contained. Fire behaviour over threshold of control

• Fire potential for the first 48 hours: 4800 ha. If we use normal firefighting tactics chances of loosing them all are 75 %

• Shifting strategy to a shared land strategy with containment operations, fire potential for first 48 hours is reduced to 900 ha. Tactically, chances of succeeding are as high as 82 %

Sunday afternoon

Night Sunday to monday

Morning afternoon

Night Monday to tuesday

Tuesday afternoon

Strategy

2400 ha

600 ha

900 ha

900 ha

830 ha burnt out of 4800 ha possible during first 48 hours 230 ha under burnt at low intensity naturally, managing the forest and creating resilience in it for decades to come Containment strategy shifted uncertainty and distrust between stakeholders and fire service into a trusted management and a certainty environment

certainty Not

adapted tactics

Lack of fighting capacity

Uncertainty and unsafe

Scenario uncertainty

Fighting capacity

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