firecamms fire consortia for advanced modeling of meteorology and smoke

FireCAMMSFire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

www.fs.fed.us/fcamms

Smoke Smoke and Fire and Fire WeatherWeather

Weather observations/forecasts, fire danger, and smoke dispersion for the Northwest.

www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environwww.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ

Ready Access to High Resolution Weather PredictionsReady Access to High Resolution Weather Predictions

Ready Access to High Resolution Weather PredictionsReady Access to High Resolution Weather Predictions

Smoke PredictionsMM5 36-km MM5 12-km

UW Server

Personal PC

SFSL “Beowulf”

ClusterNFSpuff BlueSky

Ready Access to High Resolution Weather PredictionsReady Access to High Resolution Weather Predictions

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAINSRAINS.o.orgrg

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Wildfire Wildland Fire Use - Quartz Complex

- Potential 500 ac/day

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Biscuit Fire

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAINSRAINS.o.orgrg

O R E G O N D E P A R T M E N T O F F O R E S T R Y P R E S C R I B E D B U R N I N G

S M O K E M A N A G E M E N T P R O G R A M

C l i c k t h e m a p t o :

Z o o m I n

Z o o m O u t

P a n Q u e r y a L o c a t i o n

R e t u r n T o F u l l E x t e n t

A c t i v e M a p 2 0 0 0 R e g i s t r a t i o n s

S h o w M a p

R e s u l t D a t e

M o n t h . . . J A N U A R Y D a y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 Y e a r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0 0 0

Q u e r y R e s u l t s

P l e a s e s e n d q u e s t i o n s o r c o m m e n t s a b o u t t h e w e b s i t e t o M i k e Z i o l k o . M Z i o l k o @ o d f . s t a t e . o r . u s

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Prescribed Fires

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Prescribed Fires

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Prescribed Fires

BlueSkyBlueSky

What is it?What is it?Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

• Daily Emission tracking

• Automated, centralized processing

• Real-time Smoke predictions

• Quantitative Verification

• Community model development

BlueSkBlueSkyy

Development CommunityDevelopment CommunityFederal Land Managers

- USDA Forest Service (PNW, R6, R1, RMRS)- Bureau of Land Management (WA, OR, MT)- National Park Service- Fish and Wildlife Service

Federal Air Agencies- NOAA (NWS, ARL)- Environmental Protection Service (R10)

Tribal Nations- Colville - Quinault- Nez Perce

States - Oregon (ODF, DEQ)- Washington (DNR, DE)- Idaho (DEQ)- Montana (DEQ)

Universities- U. of Washington - Washington State U.- U. of Montana

Local Air Agencies- Missoula City-County Health Department- Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

Private- CH2MHill- Air Sciences- 3-Tier

FASTRACS

MM5

CALPUFF

BlueSkyLinux System

BlueSkyRAINSWindows System

ArcIMS(SDE, SQLserver)

CALPUFF/ArcIMSLinkage

(netCDF2SHP (?))

PAVE Animations

CALMET2netCDF

PreliminaryBlueSky web page

CALMM5/CALMET

HYSPLIT

MM52ARL

TRAJREAD

Time SeriesDisplay

Burn ReportDisplay

EPM2BAEM

CALPUFF2netCDF

EPM/CONSUMEv1.02

F uel M ois tureR M R S

CO N S UM E/EP MS FS L

Em is s ion Rates

Rx F ores tS tate & P r ivate

S FS L ?M T/I D A irs h e d G ro u p?

Ign ition S c enar iosS FS L

M es os c ale W eather12km

1-hour in tervals60-hour forec as t

S m oke W eather12km

1-hour in tervals60-hour forec as t

Rx F ores tF ederal

FA S TR A C S - R 6M T/I D A irs h e d G ro u p

M M 5UW

M M 5-CalpuffENV I R O N

CalP uffS FS L

Agric u ltureW A Eco lo g y

plannedac c om plis hedloc ationtim e of ign itionduration of ign itionfuel loadf ire types ize

Ac c om plis hed S urfac ec onc entrations of

P M 2.5 , P M 10, P M , CO ,C02, CH4, N M HC

T 3

ftp

f tp

f tp

?

loc ations pec iesc onc entration

S m okeVerif ic ation

S tate? O bs ervationsW A , O R , M T, I D

IM P RO VE Vis ualO bs ervations

R 6 ?

N eph. O bs ervationsR 6 ?

S atellite D etec tionNA S A , R M R S ,

U.o f W is c .

P roto type"O ne-Atm os phere"

W EB s iteW A Eco lo g y & S FS L

"O ne-Environm ent"W EB s ite

EPA - R A I NS

Arc IM S M apping1-hr & 24-hr

S FS L , ES R I , & EPA

R-P lot T im eS er iesS FS L

T AHO M A

UW T em porary S ERVER "Com m unity" S ERVER

O bs ervedP lanned S urfac e

c onc entrations ofP M 2.5 , P M 10, P M , CO ,

C02, CH4, N M HC

P lanned w ith innext 60 hours .

Ac c om plis hed w ith inprev ious 36 hours .

Dispersion

Emissions Weather

OutputProducts

SourceCharacteristics

BlueSkyBlueSky

How does it work?How does it work?Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

BlueSkyBlueSky

Source Source CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Wildfire• MM5-FARSITE-BurnUp• Diurnal-Consume-EPM• Theoretical Scenario

Prescribed Fire• Planned for next day• Planned for 2nd day• Accomplished today

BlueSkyBlueSky

Input Input RequirementsRequirements

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

1. Date of burn2. Location3. Time of ignition4. Ignition duration5. Burn area6. Preburn fuel load7. Predicted fuel moisture

BlueSkyBlueSky

Input Input RequirementsRequirements

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

1. Date of burn2. Location3. Time of ignition4. Ignition duration5. Burn area6. Preburn fuel load7. Predicted fuel moisture

a. CRB FCCb. NFDRS-FM + Cond.Classc. LandSum FCC

- MM5-NFDRS

a. MT/ID Airshed Reportsb. Wash. Ag. Reportsc. PFIRSd. National Event Reportse. Remote Sensing

BlueSkyBlueSky

Accomplished Burns24 April 2002 Mike Ziolko

Oregon Dept. of Forestry

MODIS Observed Burns

24 April 2002 Wei Min Hao

Missoula Fire Lab

BlueSkyBlueSky &&

Pretty pictures. So what!Pretty pictures. So what!

Mesoscale WeatherMesoscale Weather

RAINSRAINSBlueSkBlueSkyy

BlueSkyBlueSky

RAINSRAINS

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

0.00E+00

1.00E+04

2.00E+04

3.00E+04

4.00E+04

5.00E+04

6.00E+04

7.00E+04

Gra

ms p

er S

eco

nd

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748Forecast Hour

CH4

CO

PM

PM10

PM2.5

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

Tethersonde measurements of particle and gas

concentrations in a smoldering plume.

Model output matched with observations

VerificationVerification

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAINSRAINS.o.orgrg

www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environwww.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ

www.fs.fed.us/FCAMMSwww.fs.fed.us/FCAMMS

www.fs.fed.uswww.fs.fed.us/BlueSky/BlueSky

Wind

Mixing Height

xVentilation IndexVentilation Index (m(m22/s)/s)

ClassificationClassification

0-1175 Poor1175-2350 Marginal

2351-3525 Fair> 3525 Good

Ventilation Climate Information Ventilation Climate Information SystemSystem

www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/ventwww.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/vent

Maps & GraphsMaps & Graphs

BlueSkyBlueSkyRARAINSINS

Ventilation Climate Information SystemVentilation Climate Information Systemwww.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/ventwww.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/vent

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAIRAINSNS.org.orgA “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.A “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.

A probabilistic planning tool.A probabilistic planning tool.

www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environwww.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environMesoscale WeatherMesoscale Weather

A “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.A “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.