forecom project meeting may 2014 scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Initial idea (FORECOM proposal)• Refine existing models for Swiss Alps by-including long-term forest cover change perspective-knowledge of lands use/climate contribution to past changes

• Apply models to Polish Carpathians-requires comparability of model foundations (data)

in terms of scenarios this implies:-making use of findings from TASK 3-6-emphasising comparative aspects

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Scenarios in existing Swiss land use models

3 Scenarios (old approach) BAU: business as usual, continuation of observed trends

Liberalization: no more support for ag production and conservation-oriented ag

Extensification: increased support for conservation-oriented ag

2 axis (new approach) Low vs. High intervention

Regional vs. Global

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Potential modes of intervention Forest policy: restrictions for deforestation, reforestation efforts Ag Policy: support for ag production/conservation-oriented schemesSpatial Planning

regional to global

Scope of policyScale of driving forces

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Apply CAP scenarios in SwitzerlandApply aspects of Swiss ag and forest policy scenarios to Poland

Comparative approach

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

How to make use of information on long-term forest cover dynamics and drivers of

past changes?• Forest cover-forest age (e.g., stronger protection of old forests, less strict

deforestation regulations or even support to clear recent in-growth)

• Drivers-Adjustment of land-use suitability maps and transition

probabilities based on findings in TASK 6

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Include new aspects in scenarios?• Energy-Lorenas suitability maps (energy production could prevent in-

growth)-changes in wood demand-new infrastucture being built• Tourism-higher urbanization pressure in touristic hotspots-touristic infrastructure (transportation,ski slopes) • Leakage effects

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Brainstorming Scenarios (PL/CH)

Relevant aspects/drivers to be considered in the context of forest cover changes

Other land use categories involved (urbanization/ag catgories)

Is two axes framwork suitable– Adjustments/complementary axes?

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Climate

• Guiding principle: keep it as simple as possible- 2 extreme (low/high) and 1 moderate scenario (use new

RCPs)- Run different well established RCMs

Run logical combinations (argumentation) of land-use and climate scenarios

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Climate scenarios

• Use new CORDEX RCMs based on the IPCC‘s 5th AR GCMs

- http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/- CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate

Downscaling Experiment- The whole globe is split into regions, resolution

is always 50 km- Two regions are interesting for us: 4. Europe/

12. Mediterranean- All simulations based on new RCP scenarios.

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014

Climate scenarios• Proposed procedure- Select few (3-5) RCMs (representing high/mid/low Tave/Prcp)- Select 3 (2.6, 6.0, 8.5) out of 4 RCP scenarios (the low end scenarios

are more similar than the high end, see figure below).- Scale the RCM output for these scenarios to the FORECOM study

areas

Global Mean T predicted in both the 4th and the 5th IPCC Assessment Report.

FORECOM Project meeting May 2014