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Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Gianluca Misuraca, JRC IPTS Pierre Rossel, CDM EPFL
Cristiano Codagnone, JRC IPTS
The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are purely those of the authors and may not in any
circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission
Objectives
Setting the scene: Policy resistance in an age of complexity
ICT for governance and policy modelling: a possible solution?
Conceptual and Methodological Framework
Results and policy implications
Impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling
Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of
governance and policy making
Conclusions: Policy Challenges and Future Research
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Outline
To present and discuss the main findings of the scenarios for Digital Europe
2030 designed by JRC IPTS as part of the FP7 CROSSROAD project and
based on a foresight exercise which included:
an analysis of the key areas of expected change in the domain of ICT-
enabled governance and policy modelling (ICT4G&PM), and
envisioning, for each scenario, the risks and opportunities offered by ICT
tools for governance and policy modelling techniques
Based on these findings and discussion
To explore new research frontiers embedding foresight methodologies in
the future expected mainstreaming of participatory ICT tools and policy
modelling techniques
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Objectives of the paper
Today, society and the economy are more interconnected, unstable, and
unpredictable than ever
Current policymaking strategies and the ways of procuring supporting
evidence for decision making are no longer able to cope with complex,
multidimensional and highly dynamic societal challenges For more than 60 years, society has largely failed to eradicate critical social
challenges despite investing increasing resources into state policy activity
[Ormerod, 2010]
It appears that policy resistance is responsible for these failures
Policy resistance occurs when an intended policy outcome is defeated
intentionally or unintentionally by complex and dynamic elements, agents,
factors, first order and second order feedback loops, and so on. The causes
are typically multidimensional and found throughout history [Sterman, 2006]
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Policy resistance in an age of complexity
On the other side we have: radical increase in computing
power and widespread distribution
of networked communities possibility of collecting and
processing huge amounts of data
at moderate costs
Emergence of futuristic visions (e.g. ‘singularity’: computers will
exceed human cognitive capabilities
and an ‘intelligence explosion’ will
improve our quality of life) [Kurzweil,
2005]
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
‘ICT intelligence’ explosion for policy modelling
Source: CROSSROAD, 2010
Current tools and approaches for policy design, implementation and
evaluation are ill-suited to capturing the complex and interconnected future
being based on an abstract and unrealistic vision of the human being: rational (utility maximising) average (not heterogeneous) atomized (not connected) wise (thinking long-term) often highly simplified (complexity denial) and politically committed
In short, the intellectual framework upon which policy making rests is
no longer adequate
Our claim is that a paradigmatic shift in developing a new policy
modelling framework is required
However, this is not simply a matter of more computing power and more
data: multiple longstanding challenges also need to be addressed
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
In search of a paradigmatic shift on policy modelling
EC FP 7th ICT-WP 2009-2010 (Obj. 7.3) and 2011-2012 (obj. 5.6)
joins two complementary research fields (traditionally separated):
the Governance and Participation Toolbox (technologies such as
mass conversation and collaboration tools); and
the Policy Modelling domain (forecasting, agent-based modelling,
simulation and visualisation)
Aims:
improve public decision-making in the age of complexity
make policy-making and governance more effective and more
‘intelligent’ and
accelerate learning path and implementation in the policy cycle
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
ICT for governance and policy modelling: a possible solution?
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
The challenge: filling the gap between societal behaviours and governance processes
Policies Health R&D Social
Disciplines Economics Mathematics ICT
Actors Government Citizens Industry
Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable
Governance processes often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified
Goal
Source: CROSSROAD, 2010
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
National Technical University of Athens
(Coordinator)(Coordinator)
Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency
University Koblenz-Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission
FP7 Coordination and Support Action aiming at:
driving the identification of emerging technologies, new
governance models and novel application scenarios in the
domain of ICT for governance and policy modelling
leading to the structuring of a beyond the state-of-the-art
research roadmap embraced by the research and practice
communities
www.crossroad-eu.netwww.crossroad-eu.net
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
CROSSROAD Roadmapping Methodological Approach
State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push
State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push
Future Future scenarios: scenarios:
demand pulldemand pull
Future Future scenarios: scenarios:
demand pulldemand pullGapsGapsGapsGaps
GrandGrand challenges challenges (draft)(draft)
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research roadmap roadmap
(final)(final)
Research Research roadmap roadmap
(final)(final)
Source: CROSSROAD, 2010
Work conducted by IPTS IS Unit as part of CROSSROAD aiming at
developing a visionary scenario analysis based on a foresight exercise to: identify key areas of expected change in the context of radical different future
scenarios anticipate for each scenario, the risks and opportunities offered by ICT tools for
governance and policy modelling
The scenario design exercise proposes a set of scenarios of exploratory nature and presented qualitatively (i.e. narrative scenarios /
storyboards)
The proposed scenarios are instrumental to develop a shared vision to inspire collaborative and interdisciplinary research to mobilize the various governance stakeholders in addressing current and
future societal challenges to provide inputs to the CROSSROAD Roadmap to provide strategic directions
for the future research on ICT4G&PM
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in future governance and policy modelling
Governments struggle to regulate an increasingly interdependent and complex world, as the financial crisis and other emergencies have shown
Policy-makers do not have the luxury of waiting until situations are clarified and until the effects are evident before they take decisions
Citizens are becoming more vocal in monitoring and influencing policy decisions and future scenarios are likely to show greater complexity and citizens’ involvement
Current ICT tools for collaborative governance and policy modelling start to
show great opportunities for decision-making but they still remain an exception and research is fragmented between academic
fields, application areas, and approaches to innovation (theory vs. practice led)
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Rationale of the CROSSROAD scenario design
The history of future studies spans several decades and there are various methods for
‘exploring’ the future However, the growing knowledge-intensity, the pace of technological and societal
changes, and the increasingly networked character of the economy and governance
processes, cannot be explored using technology-oriented future studies only
A more comprehensive approach is needed the approach followed in designing scenarios for Digital Europe 2030 relies on
foresight methods, which are based on a broader concept than Technology
Forecasting and Assessment it implies a wide range of themes and stakeholders perspectives in order to
examine the social and economic aspects of future technological developments the process is interactive, open-ended and bottom-up in order to identify possible
breakthroughs and explore implications and hypotheses that will support defining
strategic directions and policy-related decision-making
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Conceptual Framework
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Methodological Approach
Trends1. Identify Trends1. Identify Trends
Less impact
More impact
Uncertainty low
Uncertainty high
2. Classification of trends 2. Classification of trends
KEY DIMENSION ONE
KEY DIMENSION TWO 3 . 3 . Extraction of key Extraction of key dimensions of uncertaintiesdimensions of uncertainties
Key dimension 1: extreme 0
Key dimension 1: extreme 1
Key dimension 2: extreme 1
Key dimension 2: extreme 0
SCENARIO ASCENARIO B
SCENARIO C SCENARIO D
4. Dimensions combined to 4. Dimensions combined to identify scenariosidentify scenarios
5. Scenarios stories and 5. Scenarios stories and descriptiondescription
Source: Popper, 2008
Governance/Policy modelling
Civil Servants
Transactional environmentTransactional environment
Government
PrivateSector
Technology suppliers
Civil society organisations
ContextualContextual
environmentenvironment
National politics and
policies
Socio-demographic developments
Economics
...........
Research Community
EU policies
technology
Administrative culture and
attitudes
Other practitioners
14
Combining foresight and modelling techniques in a dynamic and participatory manner may enhance policy intelligence capabilities and thus lead to a better governance and policy making process
e.g. Foresight can help modelling in picking up 'weak signals‘
Our hypothesis is that embedding foresight techniques in structured modelling platforms may serve as a crucial part of an early warning system
it can be used as an instrument for developing policy intelligence mechanisms
participative, transparent, forward-looking methods may support policy-makers in finding solutions for complex societal challenges that cannot be addressed by traditional policy recipes and models based on evidence from the past
a dynamic component need to be introduced in modelling systems so to take into consideration changes and trends developments, as well as inputs from all interested stakeholders that would guarantee effective policy implementation
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Exploring the next frontiers: combining foresight and modelling techniques
Structuring a scenario design framework for shaping the future in the domain of governance and policy making
The key societal, policy and technology-research trends can be distilled in two basic uncertainties related to the way the European society and member states will shape their policies and research agendas in the future:
the societal value systems we will be living in (more inclusive, open and transparent or exclusive fractured and restrictive), and
the response (partial or complete, proactive or reactive) to the acquisition and integration of policy intelligence techniques in support of data processing, visualization and simulation for evidence-based policy modelling
These uncertainties are translated into two key dimensions of impact: Degree of Openness and Transparency (Axis Y) and
Degree of Integration in Policy Intelligence (Axis X)
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling
Low Openness & Transparency : extreme 0
High Openness & Transparency: extreme 1
extreme 1
Low Integration of Policy Intelligence
extreme 0
Self-Service Governance
Open Governance
Privatised Governance
Leviathan Governance
High Integration of Policy Intelligence
Envisioning Digital Europe 2030Envisioning Digital Europe 2030
Source: CROSSROAD, 2010
In all the scenarios, the world in 2030 is expected to be radically different from today's
due to the unprecedented growth and speed of ICT uptake in several fields and
the related impact ICT tools for governance and policy modelling may have
The influences and drivers of innovation and renewal in the public sector
will result not only in change, but will affect the pace at which the state adapts to
the new environment, to its new roles and to increased engagement with
stakeholders and users
Whichever scenario dominates in the future traditional governance models will be
challenged as ICT-based disruptions impinge on democratic, consultative and policy-
making processes
Evidence shows that the scope and scale of transformation will have a major
impact on society (e.g. Web2.0, mobile ICT, pervasive computing, etc.)
ICT tools can herald the transition to a different form of dynamically participative
governance models
Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
While such scenarios are readily imaginable, we do not have appropriate governance
models, process flows, or analytical tools with which to properly understand, interpret,
visualise and harness the forces that could be unleashed
in a world that is increasingly using non-physical communication and borderless
interaction, traditional roles and responsibilities of public administrations will be subject
to considerable change
classical boundaries between citizens and governments will become increasingly
blurred
the balance of power between governments, societal actors and the population will
have to adapt to these challenging new possibilities
A key issue will be to develop and apply advanced ICT tools to provide robust support
to the change process and facilitate the transition to a new ‘digitally-derived legitimacy’
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling
The scenarios developed resulted in a substantial contribution to
shaping the roadmap of future research in the domain of ICT4G&PM
Participatory foresight processes bring together not only experts and
interested parties but involve directly policy-makers and other key
stakeholders (e.g. comments/annotation of public deliverables, CoP, etc.)
This also confirmed that an opening of the decision-making process is
required to ensure robustness and effectiveness of its outcomes
shift in policy making practices from shaping framework conditions and
structural settings towards strategic decision making
recognition of the growing complexity of governance processes
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of governance and policy making
A shift towards evidence-based / model-based policy making is happening
not always supported by effective empirical data and conceptually sound
understanding of the societal implications of modelling techniques per-se
initial enthusiasm is given way to a significant deal of scepticism, both from
'traditional modellers' and non-experts, including policy-makers themselves
Policy effectiveness depends also on the involvement of a broader range of
stakeholders than those formally in charge of policy decisions
This concept of distributed policy-making and intelligence originally set out by
[Kuhlman, 2001] is de facto at the core of the foresight and roadmapping exercise
underpinning CROSSROAD
openness of governance systems and integration of policy intelligence can
harness collective wisdom, building on the knowledge, experience, and
competence of various actors
Applying this network perspective to a 'distributed platform' based on ICT-enabled
policy modelling and integrated foresight techniques may be instrumental to
further implement policies and achieve socio-economic impacts
Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of governance and policy making
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Conclusions: limits and possible directions of evidence-based policy-making
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Source: Piniewski, B., Codagnone, C, and Osimo, D. JRC-IPTS, 2011
Strict relationship with the broader task of developing the Future Internet
The Internet was not designed to serve massive scale applications
Emerging technologies (e.g. high quality video, 3D, or applications enabling mass
collaboration, data processing, simulation and visualization through complex
modelling) face severe constraints as regards running seamlessly anytime, anywhere,
with good quality services
Multi disciplinary research to benefit from the opportunities of ICT for better
governance and policy making and to overcome the possible risks to society of
mainstreaming large scale applications in this domain is needed
Considering socio-economic aspects in the development of future ICT tools for
governance and policy modelling techniques
Designing suitable governance and policy-making mechanisms, which provide
appropriate incentives for participation, but at the same time ensure security and avoid
risks (of enlarging digital exclusion, for example)
Solving legal and regulatory issues (e.g. digital rights, privacy and data protection, and
the demand for ‘trust’ in governance in an IoT environment)
Conclusions: policy challenges & possible solutions
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Source: Adapted from CROSSROAD, 2010, and Piniewski, Codagnone, and Osimo, JRC-IPTS, 2011
Distributed Policy
Intelligence Platform
Foresight / A
nticipating the Future
Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
The future is already here…
…it is just unevenly distributed
William Gibson, Science Fiction Writer
Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Current modelling techniques are not adequate to predict, monitor and
evaluate policy developments and their impacts on society, relative absence of a meta-level of analysis, a reflexive layer where not only it
would be possible to ‘model’, but also ‘model how to model’
A new policy-modelling paradigm shift is required not only by enabling users to become 'living sensors' and providing data to be
directly fed into comprehensive models
but also giving the possibility to the users to have direct access to data they need,
and process them using ICT-enabled simulation and visualization 'intelligent'
systems (i.e. able to find meaning in confusion, independently of human-acquired
knowledge)
ICT alone cannot solve everything and can even generate new problems both institutional and cultural changes are needed
Data and information are a fundamental building block of this new paradigm different data may come in different formats and be difficult to link correctly
data about the future are not available (even the more sophisticated model will not allow to predict exactly what impacts specific policies may have)
Complement modelling approaches with participatory foresight techniques allowing for example the possibility to gather data and opinions directly from users (e.g
enabling both participatory sensing and opportunistic sensing)
developing innovative policy intelligence platforms that based on advanced participation, new modelling and simulation techniques will help bridging the knowledge asymmetry between the experts, the policy makers and the citizen
Foresight will be a crucial component as the real time dynamic of such a policy intelligence platform will not rely simply on data about past and present facts, but will provide the framework for alternative policy options and related impacts
Problems once unknowable due to their size and complexity may become quite knowable
Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers
gianluca.misuraca@ec.europa.eu
http://is.jrc.ec.europa.eu
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