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Foresight Flood and Coastal Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence ProjectDefence Project
Government Office for ScienceDepartment for Innovation, Universities and Skills
Overview by:
Colin ThorneUniversity of Nottingham
colin.thorne@nottingham.ac.uk
on behalf of the Foresight Team
Overview
• Project aims
• Methodology
• River, Coastal and Intra-urban Drivers
• Predicting Future Risks (baseline case)
• Responses: Structural and nonstructural measures
• Costs and Affordability of Responses
• Final Messages and Further Information
June 2007
July 2007
Foresight Project Aims
• Produce a long-term vision for future flood
and coastal risks and their management in
the UK.
• Cover all aspects of flood & coastal
erosion risk for the whole UK, looking 30 –
100 years ahead.
• Provide a reliable evidence-base for
decision makers, using expert knowledge
and high level flood and erosion risk
analyses.
• Supply the underpinning science for
national-level policy making.
Methodology
The flooding system
Foresight Futures 2020
Foresight Futures 2020 + UKCIP2002 climate change scenarios
Medium-low emissions
High emissionsand
Low emissions
Medium-high emissions
Low emissions
• .
System state variablesPathways
urban surfacesfields, drains
channelsflood storage
flood defences
floodplains
Receptorscommunities
homesindustries
Infrastructureresources
ecosystems
Sourcesrainfall
sea levelstorm surgeswave
heights
etc.
RiskProbability x
consequences(economic, risk to life, social, natural environment etc)
System analysis
DriversProcesses that change the state of the
systemChange in risk
ResponsesInterventions that change the state of the
system
Change in risk
Flood Risk Drivers:
Deep Description and Qualitative Analysis
Future Flood Risks:
Drivers of River and Coastal Flooding
Drivers of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk
“… any phenomenon that changes the state of the flooding system…”
Drivers of fluvial and coastal flooding
Driver group Driver SPR classification
Precipitation Source Climate change
Temperature Source
Urbanisation Pathway
Rural land management Pathway
Catchment runoff
Agricultural impacts Receptor
Environmental regulation Pathway
River morphology and sediment supply
Pathway
Fluvial Systems and Processes
River vegetation and conveyance Pathway
Waves Source
Surges Source
Relative sea level rise Source
Coastal processes
Coastal morphology and sediment supply Pathway
Stakeholder behaviour Pathway Human behaviour
Public attitudes and expectations Receptor
Buildings and contents Receptor
Urban impacts Receptor
Infrastructure impacts Receptor
Social impacts Receptor
Socio- economics
Science, engineering and technology Receptor
Baseline ranking of river and coastal drivers• Socio-economic drivers
• Coastal drivers
• Precipitation
• Big scenario differences
Major uncertainties:
• Sea level rise
• Coastal morphology
• Surges
• Precipitation
• Stakeholder behaviour
• Public Attitudes+Expectations
Future Flood Risks – Drivers of intra-urban flooding
• The catchment and coastal risk analysis treated urban areas as receptor
units containing people, property and infrastructure.
• Another set of sources and flood pathways at local scales operates within urban areas due to extremely intense rainfall and/or congested drainage (sewer) flooding - termed ‘intra-urban flooding’.
Drivers in urban areas
Plus:• Stakeholder behaviour• Urban planning policy
Ranking of intra-urban scale drivers• Social impacts
• Asset deterioration
• Intense Precipitation
• Environmental management and regulation
Quantitative Analysis of Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks
(Baseline Case)
Modeling: National quantitative risk analysis:
RiskAssessmentforStrategicPlanning
Data used:Rivers and coastlinesFloodplain mappingStandard of protection Condition of defencesAddresses of all properties/people at riskFlood damage by depthSocial vulnerabilityAgricultural land grade
Calculating future flood riskPathway
(e.g. beach, raised/non-raiseddefence and floodplain)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Pathway(e.g. beach, raised/non-raised
defence and floodplain)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Pathway(e.g. beach, raised/non-raised
defence and floodplain)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Pathway(e.g. beach, raised/non-raised
defence and floodplain)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Pathway(e.g. beach, raised/non-raised
defence and floodplain)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Pathway(e.g. beach, raised/non-raised
defence and floodplain)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Source (River or sea)
Receptor(e.g. people and property)
Dominant valley classcoastallowland (intermediate / shallow valley slopes)upland (steep valley slopesno defences
Drawing numberJob number
Date
Dominant Valley Class
Revision
Foresight - Future Flood Risks
June 2003 1.01
CDS 0438
0 40 8020Kilometres ±
This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey materialwith the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf ofthe controller of Her Majesty's Stationary Office.(c) Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproductioninfringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecutionor civil proceedings.Department of Trade and Industry. 100037208. 2003.
Dominant Floodplain Class (2002)
Wales
Midlands
East Anglia
North-east
South-west
Thames
North-west
South-east
Dominant valley classcoastallowland (intermediate / shallow valley slopes)upland (steep valley slopesno defences
Drawing numberJob number
Date
Dominant Valley Class
Revision
Foresight - Future Flood Risks
June 2003 1.01
CDS 0438
0 40 8020Kilometres ±
This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey materialwith the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf ofthe controller of Her Majesty's Stationary Office.(c) Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproductioninfringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecutionor civil proceedings.Department of Trade and Industry. 100037208. 2003.
Flood Risk Predictions for 2050 and 2080 Foresight
Future Flood Risks
All Scenarios: Comparative RiskExpected Annual
Probability of Flooding
Present Day 2002
Outside IFP
HighMediumLowNegligible
Probability of Inundation to a depthgreater than 0.0m
N0 50 100 Kilometers
Job: WPSFSG
Note: Comparisons represent thedifference between Present Day 2002results and Foresight Future Scenarios
Very High
Negligible Increase
Low
MediumHigh
Low Increase
Medium IncreaseHigh Increase
Decrease
Outside IFP
Negligible Increase
Low
MediumHigh
Low Increase
Medium IncreaseHigh Increase
Decrease
Outside IFP
Negligible Increase
Low
Medium
High
Low Increase
Medium Increase
High Increase
Decrease
Outside IFP
Negligible Increase
Low
Medium
High
Low Increase
Medium Increase
High Increase
Decrease
Outside IFP
Negligible Increase
Low
Medium
High
Low Increase
Medium Increase
High Increase
Decrease
Outside IFP
World Markets 2080's World Markets 2050's
Local Stewardship 2080's National Enterprise 2080's Global Responsibility 2080's
Present Day 2002
Date: July 2003
Expected annual damages: £ millions (currently ~ £1billion)
Baseline Conclusions: unless we act:-
• Future flooding and coastal erosion are very serious threats to the UK.
• They represent a major challenge to government and society.
• Combining the World Markets and Low emissions scenarios reduces future expected annual economic damages by only ~25%.
Responses
Options for managing future flood and coastal erosion risks
sustainably
80 individual responses
80 individual responses
Organised into 25 response groups
Organised into 25 response groups
Potential Responses
And 5 response themes
• Reducing urban runoff
• Reducing rural runoff
• Managing flood events
• Managing flood losses
• Engineering and large scale re-alignment or abandonment
And 5 response themes
• Reducing urban runoff
• Reducing rural runoff
• Managing flood events
• Managing flood losses
• Engineering and large scale re-alignment or abandonment
Deep Response Descriptions
• Definition, Function and Efficacy• Governance• Sustainability
Environm ental Quality
Social Justice
Robus tness
Pre cau tion
Flood r isk
Cost Effectivene ss
— neutral
++
--
• Costs• Interactions• Case example• Emerging issues• Uncertainty
• Potential for implementation under each of the four Foresight future scenarios
Responses with the most potential for risk reductions
Responses Groups ranked by potential risk reduction in the 2080sRank World
MarketsNational
EnterpriseLocal
StewardshipGlobal
Sustainability1 River
DefencesRiver
DefencesLand Use Planningand Management
Land Use Planningand Management
2 CoastalDefences
CoastalDefences
Flood ProofingBuildings
Catchment-WideStorage
3 Flood ProofingBuildings
Reduce CoastalEnergy
Individual DamageAvoidance
RiverDefences
4 Reduce CoastalEnergy
Realign CoastalDefences
RiverDefences
CoastalDefences
5 MorphologicalCoastal Protection
MorphologicalCoastal Protection
Catchment-WideStorage
Flood ProofingBuildings
6 Realign CoastalDefences
Coastal DefenceAbandonment
Pre-eventMeasures
RuralConveyance
7 Real-time EventManagement
Flood ProofingBuildings
Real-time EventManagement
Realign CoastalDefences
8 RiverConveyance
RiverConveyance
Engineered FloodStorage
Reduce CoastalEnergy
9 Individual DamageAvoidance
Catchment-WideStorage
RuralConveyance
MorphologicalCoastal Protection
10 Pre-eventMeasures
Land Use Planningand Management
RiverConveyance
Engineered FloodStorage
11 Engineered FloodStorage
Engineered FloodStorage
RuralInfiltration
Real-time EventManagement
12 Land Use Planningand Management
Real-time EventManagement
Manage UrbanRunoff
Pre-eventMeasures
13 Manage UrbanRunoff
Pre-eventMeasures
Flood WaterTransfer
Individual DamageAvoidance
14 Flood WaterTransfer
RuralConveyance
CoastalDefences
RiverConveyance
15 Catchment-WideStorage
RuralInfiltration
Realign CoastalDefences
RuralInfiltration
16 RuralConveyance
Individual DamageAvoidance
MorphologicalCoastal Protection
Manage UrbanRunoff
17 RuralInfiltration
Manage UrbanRunoff
Reduce CoastalEnergy
Flood WaterTransfer
18 Flood WaterTransfer
Coastal DefenceAbandonment
Legend
Colourcode
Interpretation
Major reduction in flood risk ( S < 0.7)Marked reduction in flood risk (0.7 < S < 0.9)Minor reduction in flood risk (0.9 < S < 1.0)Ineffective ( S = 1)Likely to Increase flood risk ( S > 1.0)
• Structural: Important, but need to rethink Coastal Defences
• Non-structural: We can manage down flood & erosion losses
How much will it cost – are responses affordable?
• The cost of implementing engineering- based structural
approach alone to achieve the indicative standard of defence
in the 2080s is ~ £52 billion
• The cost of using structural defences as part of an integrated
portfolio of structural and non-structural responses is ~ £22
billion
Delivering the message
• First level – Briefing notes for elected officials
• Second level – Technical reports, papers and book
• Third level – Working documents and project record
• Fourth level – Video game for practitioners and students
Flood Ranger Video Game
Final Messages
• Future flood and coastal erosion risks are likely to increase due to climate, economic, social and planning drivers if we go on as we are.
• We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by our actions on global emissions and governance.
• There are feasible and sustainable responses that can hold risk at present day levels affordably - if implemented through Integrated Flood Risk Management.
• But we must act now in developing new policies to allow non-structural measures to be effective in time.
Closing Statement
Have confidence: UK Foresight proves it is possible to develop a long-term vision for IFRM.
Politicians will listen and act provided that your messages are clear and are properly supported by the best science and engineering analyses available.
Further Information
Flood Foresight:
www.foresight.gov.uk
• Follow links for flood and coastal defence
UK Research Consortium on Flood Risk Management:
www.floodrisk.org.uk
Over to the Break-out Groups!
Colin ThorneUniversity of Nottingham
colin.thorne@nottingham.ac.uk
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