foresight for developing countries and economies in transition
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UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
1
Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition
UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting Technology Foresight – Present and Future
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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The New Global Setting
Increased financial, trade and investment flows Rapid and accelerating technological progress; electronics,
ICTs, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells, nanotechnologies
New international regulations and standards, trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights
New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage Global value chains and production networks emerge in all
types of industries managed by multinational companies and global buyers
Companies and governments in developing countries are even more affected by changes on global setting
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Capacity & resources deficiencies in developing countries
Lack of conducive integrated policy and institutional framework
Under-developed technology and innovation promotion capabilities
Short-term thinking and reactive mode action System linkage failures and poor coordination Disconnection of application of new technologies from socio-
economic problems Scientific institutions with strong and inflexible disciplinary
focus Low technology and innovation intensity in industry Lack of funding for technology acquisition and diffusion Lack of human capital and increasing human resources crisis
(brain drain, demography) Absence of adequate equipment and infrastructure
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Response to emerging challenges and opportunities
Redefining policies compatible with global industrial interconnections– Where innovation and technology up-grading are key for
competitiveness and sustainable development
Connecting national industries to global value chains– Need of global positioning of national industries
• Through comparing performance and drivers– Up-grading industrial capabilities
Enhancing industrial governance
Promoting foresight culture and application of foresight methodologies
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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National economy boundary
Domestic industrial cluster
Global customers
Large-scale, multi-outlet retailers Small-scale retailers
Global buyers
Buyer and export agents
Local customers Large-scale or multi-plant manufacturers
Small-scale manufacturers
Small-scale suppliers
Global industrial interconnections
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Global industries
Industrial Clusters
Connecting national industry to global value chains
Systems
Su
pp
ort S
yste
ms
Support
Governance system
Framework conditions
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Global Links
Linking, liberating and learning
FDI and domestic capability building
Import of capital goods
Trade performance
Capabilities
Human Capital
Technology and innovation
Modern infrastructure
Enabling business environment
Regulatory framework
Credit ranking
Infrastructure
Cost of doing business
Cost of production
Governance
Industrial governance
Economic transformation index
Corporate social responsibility
Economic freedom
Performance Performance
GDP per capitaGDP per capita
Competitive industrial Competitive industrial performanceperformance
PovertyPoverty
EnvironmentEnvironment
Gender developmentGender development
Trade diversificationTrade diversification
Global Positioning of National Industries
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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DriversDriversCountry positionCountry position
FirstQuartile
Second Quartile
ThirdQuartile
Last Quartile
Performance Performance XX
Business EnvironmentBusiness Environment XX
Technology and Technology and InnovationInnovation
XX
Global linkagesGlobal linkages XX
Governance Governance XX
Comparing Performance/Drivers
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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0
25
50
75
100
Performance BusinessEnvironment
Technology andInnovation
Global Linkages Governance
Up-grading Industrial Capabilities
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Industrial Governance
GOVERNMENT
Guides the overall strategy process and focuses on strategic tasks and policy issues
PRIVATE SECTOR
Identify and assess challenges and opportunities and organize collective responses
SUPPORT SYSTEM
Analyze trends
Support clusters
Strengthen capabilities and global links
REGIONS
Promote and Support the development of local clusters
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Promotion of a foresight culture and application of the foresight methodology
Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process
Introducing a forward-looking attitude Provoking a creative and motivating decision making
environment Stimulating a participative approach Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus around shared visions Linking technology acquisition and diffusion to wider socio-
economic issues
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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What is foresight? B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved
in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits”
L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life”
The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight has to prepare us for a variety of "futures"
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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What for Technology Foresight in developing countries and economies in transition?
Improve Improve decision makingdecision making
Guide Guide technology choicestechnology choices
Generate Generate alternative trajectoriesalternative trajectories for future development for future development
Enhance Enhance learninglearning and improve preparedness for and improve preparedness for emergenciesemergencies
Motivate Motivate changechange
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise
Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as:
– Government– Industry– Academy - natural & social scientists– Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media, banks, schools,
the general public, etc.
An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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The context of the Foresight processThe context of the Foresight process
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Inclusion of Foresight in policy-making process
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Classes of Foresight methods
CriteriaCriteria MethodsMethods
1. Methods based on eliciting expert knowledge to develop long term strategies
− Delphi method
− Experts panels
− Brainstorming
− Mindmapping
− Scenario analysis workshops
− SWOT analysis
2. Quantitative methods that make use of statistics and other data
− Trend extrapolation
− Simulation modelling
− Cross impact analysis
− System dynamics
3. Methods to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies
− Critical/ key technologies
− Relevance trees
− Morphological analysis
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Overview of some Overview of some common methods common methods (Loveridge, 1996)(Loveridge, 1996)
Combinations
of methods
Expertise•
Creativity
InteractionAlignment
Panels ConferencesImpactmatrix
La prospective
Sciencefiction
Brainstorming
Scenario
writing
Essays
DelphiWorkshops
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Status of foresightStatus of foresight
Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name
Content focus– Priority setting– Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address
future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities
Structural focus (increasing tendency)– Reorienting Science & Innovation system– Demonstrating vitality of S & I system– Bringing new actors into the strategic debate– Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around
problems
Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously– All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels
Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Context of move to open innovationContext of move to open innovation
Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy
Concept of innovation ecosystem
Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision
Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies– Also an industrial policy based upon fostering clusters,
platforms and supply chains– Key driver of development is linkage between local capabilities
and effective demand
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Four generations of Four generations of ForesightForesightFIRST
GENERATION
Technology forecasts
SECOND GENERATION
Technology and markets
THIRDGENERATION
Technology, markets and the social dimension
FOURTHGENERATION
Distributed Role in Innovation System
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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UNIDO Initiative on UNIDO Initiative on Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Development objectives
Contribute to enhancing the Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitivenessindustrial competitiveness and expand and expand trading potentialtrading potential
Foster Foster economic, environmental and social benefitseconomic, environmental and social benefits at at national and regional levelsnational and regional levels
Definition of Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmesinnovation policies and R&D programmes
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Components
Awareness building and foresight cultureAwareness building and foresight culture
National and Regional / Supra-national capabilitiesNational and Regional / Supra-national capabilities
Regional and International coordination – Regional and International coordination – Partnerships promotionPartnerships promotion
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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UNIDO support
International Conferences and workshops on International Conferences and workshops on best practices best practices and methodologiesand methodologies (national, supra-national and corporate) (national, supra-national and corporate)
Promoting Promoting industry participationindustry participation
Task force of experts Task force of experts and methodology development for and methodology development for preparation and during foresight exercisespreparation and during foresight exercises
Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and countriesand countries
Cooperation in the Cooperation in the post-foresight processpost-foresight process
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Tools and methodologies
Book on International Practices on Technology ForesightBook on International Practices on Technology Foresight
UNIDO Manual on Technology ForesightUNIDO Manual on Technology Foresight
Web page: Web page: www.unido.org/foresightwww.unido.org/foresight
CD-ROM collectionCD-ROM collection
Delphi on-lineDelphi on-line
TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Regional or Supra-national dimension
Foresight as a tool for Foresight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmesplurinational R&D programmes
Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networkingmulti-country networking
Reduce costs by sharing Reduce costs by sharing common activitiescommon activities
Awareness of global and Awareness of global and regional trendsregional trends
Joint vision and solutions for Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problemscross-border problems
Concentration of Concentration of plurinational production chainsplurinational production chains
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Foresight Exercise for Production Chains
ProductsProducts Production processesProduction processes
MarketsMarkets
Identification of:
Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries
Required cooperation for technology up-grading
Identification of:
Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries
Required cooperation for technology up-grading
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach:
Participation of different countries
Plurinational
Complex production chains
Multisectorial
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Examples of UNIDO foresight exercises
• Multi-countryMulti-country level level • National levelNational level• SubSub--national level national level • Company levelCompany level
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities
Some issues have to be examined on higher than national level or international cooperation is required
• Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-7)
• Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7)
• Impact of EU-Accession to Agro-food and Automotive industries (2003)
• Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6)
• Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7)
• Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9)
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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REGIONAL LATIN AMERICAREGIONAL LATIN AMERICA
THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF
THE FISHERY INDUSTRYTHE FISHERY INDUSTRY
South American Pacific Coast South American Pacific Coast
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Fishery Productive Chain
Marine
Fresh water
Aquaculture
RESOURCES
Intermediate and final agricultural goods
Industrial intermediate goods
Production services
INDUSTRIAL INPUTS
Capital goods
Infrastructure
Factory ships
Seine
Small scale
EXTRACTION
Aquaculture
Canned
Frozen
Cured
PROCESSING
Concentrated
Hydrolysed
Meals and crude oils
HUMAN CONSUMPTION
NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION
Semi-refined oils
Balanced food
Refined oils
Animal feed
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Regional Situation
National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets
Strengh and weakness of the environment
Regional Panel
National DiagnosticsNational Diagnostics
National Foresight Studies
Regional Panel and Report
Critical Technologies
Tools of Action
Decision Making Processes
National Panels Consultations
Methodology
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific costPacific cost
Main resultsMain results
1) Agreements on 1) Agreements on regional cooperationregional cooperation for for improving productivity and competitivenessimproving productivity and competitiveness
2) Definition of 2) Definition of regional R&D programmesregional R&D programmes
3) Application of 3) Application of up-graded technologiesup-graded technologies
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific costPacific cost
Recommendations for follow up programmesRecommendations for follow up programmes
- Definition of a Definition of a regional policyregional policy
- Technology up-grading and investment promotion for Technology up-grading and investment promotion for
re-conversion and modernizationre-conversion and modernization
- Creation of new Creation of new regional centerregional center for capability building and for capability building and technology watch/road mappingtechnology watch/road mapping
- - Establishing a Establishing a quality mark of originquality mark of origin for the fish products of for the fish products of the regionthe region
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Future of the Food Industry in Eastern EuropeFuture of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe
Project:Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia
Contract no.:Contract no.: 43005 FutureFood6
European Commission – 6th Framework
Starting date:Starting date: 01 February 2007
Duration:Duration: 2 years
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Future of the Food Industry in Eastern EuropeFuture of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe
The immediate goal:The immediate goal: to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern
European countries to reach international standards to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by
developing an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality.
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Future of the Food Industry in Eastern EuropeFuture of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe
Project strategy:
1. Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups2. A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3. Interviews with specialists.4. A survey on key technologies5. Future vision building exercise6. Technology road mapping
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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OPTIUNIDOWIIW
Czech RepublicTC AS CR
Slovakia
BIC Group
FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG)
Committee of high-level national policy-makers
Croatia
NWMC
Romania
UEFISCSU
Bulgaria
ARC Fund
Hungary
IEHAS
B
C D Knowledge institutions on food industry from every
participating country
Project Team
Future of the Food Industry in Eastern EuropeFuture of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe
UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch
UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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WP1 Kick off meeting
WP2 Future scenarios
WP3 Key technologies survey guidelines
WP4 Key Technologies survey analysis
WP5 Future Visions
WP6 Road Mapping
WP7 Policy Recommendations
WP8 Final Conference
WP
10
Pro
ject
coo
rdin
atio
n a
nd
man
age
me
nt
WP
9 D
isse
min
atio
n a
ctiv
itie
s
Work plan
flowchart
Future of the Food Industry in Eastern EuropeFuture of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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National foresight programmes
• Chile - Identify strategic economic and technology sectors
• Brazil - Production chains: textiles, plastics, wood, construction
• Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends: food biotechnology, energy and transportation and logistics
• Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF exercise
• Ukraine – Establish the institutional framework and capability
• Romania - National STI Strategy
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Sub-national foresight
Specific problems of regions, individual subnational bodies of large countries
• Foresight Programme for Irkutsk – Russian Federation
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Corporate Foresight
Technology Fairs of the Future
Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Future UNIDO efforts
Support companies in developing countries and economies in transition to set up foresight capabilities
Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework.
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in CEE/NIS
Regional Initiative on Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in Technology Foresight in CEE/NISCEE/NIS- Capacity Building- Capacity Building
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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IMPLEMENTATIONIMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEE/NIS TF INITIATIVEOF THE CEE/NIS TF INITIATIVE AWARENESS
BUILDING EVENTS TRAINING STUDIES COORDINATION
AND PARTNERSHIPS
2001
INTERNET LIFE
- REGIONAL CONFERENCE - Experts Group Meet.
MODULE 1
Budapest
METHODOS and TOOLS
CORE GROUP
2002
WEB PAGE
Kiev
Conference
- Manuals - CD ROM
EU ACCESSION IMPACT Automotive Agro-food
NATIONAL FOCAL POINTS
2003
e-MEDIA
TF Summit
2003 Budapest
- MODULE 1 Turkey - MODULE 2 Prague
BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS
2004/07
e-POLICY
TF Summit
2007 Budapest
- MODULE 1 Gebze, Turkey - MODULE 2 Prague - MODULE 3 Budapest - MODULE 4 Bratislava
PRODUCTION CHAINS
- REGIONAL R&D PROGRAMS - REGIONAL VIRTUAL CENTRE
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fp fp1
fp2
fpIMU
fp
fp
TFTraining
TFStudies
Steering Committee
Managing board
Regional Regional Virtual Virtual Center Center (RVC)(RVC)
Service UnitUNIDO
TFSummit
TFMethods
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TRAINING PROGRAMMETRAINING PROGRAMME
Module 1Module 1: Training on : Training on Organizing ForesightOrganizing Foresight programmes – TUSSIDE/TUBITAK, Gebze, Turkeyprogrammes – TUSSIDE/TUBITAK, Gebze, Turkey
Module 2Module 2: Training on TF : Training on TF MethodologiesMethodologies – – Technology Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech RepublicTechnology Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic
Module 3Module 3: Seminar on Technology Foresight for : Seminar on Technology Foresight for Decision-MakersDecision-Makers – IE HAS/IPTS, Budapest, – IE HAS/IPTS, Budapest, HungaryHungary
Module 4Module 4: Training on : Training on Corporate ForesightCorporate Foresight – BIC – BIC Group, Bratislava, SlovakiaGroup, Bratislava, Slovakia
Module 5Module 5: Training of : Training of TrainersTrainers - ITPS- ITPS
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GLOBAL FORUM EVENTSGLOBAL FORUM EVENTS
2007 Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, 2007 Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, HungaryHungary
2008 Technology Fair of the Future – Izmir, 2008 Technology Fair of the Future – Izmir, TurkeyTurkey
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Technology Foresight Summit 2007Highlight: Water Productivity
27-29 September 2007 Budapest, Hungary
organized in cooperation with
Ministry of Economy and Transport of the Republic of Hungary
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TF Summit-2007
Immediate objectives:Immediate objectives: To organize a regular summitTo organize a regular summit To address a selected highlight area through To address a selected highlight area through
undertaking regional and cross-regional discussionsundertaking regional and cross-regional discussions To interact on the results of TF exercisesTo interact on the results of TF exercises
Expected outputs:Expected outputs: Strengthened and sustained awarenessStrengthened and sustained awareness Recommendation for high-level decision-makersRecommendation for high-level decision-makers Encouragement of TF programmesEncouragement of TF programmes Application of results of FT studies for selected Application of results of FT studies for selected
Highlighted AreasHighlighted Areas Identification of relevant problems in the regionsIdentification of relevant problems in the regions
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Components of the TF Summit-2007
Special emphasisSpecial emphasis on water productivity addressing on water productivity addressing industry related technologies: protection of water industry related technologies: protection of water resources and key technologies for zero discharge resources and key technologies for zero discharge
through:through:
1.1. Water Productivity SymposiumWater Productivity Symposium
2.2. Water Technology Fair of the FutureWater Technology Fair of the Future
3.3. Ministerial Round TableMinisterial Round Table
4.4. Technology Foresight thematic panelsTechnology Foresight thematic panels
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme
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2008 Technology Fair of the Future
ESBAS-Aegean Free Zone
Izmir, Turkey, May 2008
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Objectives of the Technology Fair: 1. to offer participating enterprises and
technology institutes the opportunity to present new ideas, designs, concepts, future products and markets as well as foresight visions in their fields of specialization.
2. offer participants a platform to forge partnerships, linkages, strategic alliances and joint ventures for improved access to markets
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www.unido.org/foresightwww.unido.org/foresight
Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da FonsecaDr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca
Pilar Rodriguez-RuizPilar Rodriguez-Ruiz
INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCHBRANCH
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