framework for development of technology roadmaps...

FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF

TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS IN

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Presenter: Dr Petrus Letaba

Senior Specialist: STI Measurements and Evaluation

National Advisory Council on Innovation

08 March 2018

Presentation Outline

Conceptual Framework2

Innovation Dynamics3

Technology Roadmaps in South Africa4

Technology Roadmapping & TRMs1

Technology Roadmapping and Technology Roadmaps

• A long-range tool for technology-to-market planning within a multi-stakeholder planning environment: Inventors, Researchers, Entrepreneurs, Suppliers, OEMs, Customers,

Government, etc.

Technology Roadmaps (TRMs) serve both roles of strategy planning and implementation.

• Technology roadmaps exist in different formats and have diverse purposes (Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2001)

• Other technology future planning and assessment tools such as foresighting and forecasting exist: • time horizon strongly affects methodological appropriateness and

extrapolative approaches are usually suitable only for shorter terms (Porter, 2004)

Strategic Role of Technology Roadmaps

Technology Roadmapping

Multi-layered visual display of future direction for: Market (M)

Products (P)

Technology (T)

Research (RD)

Time dimension on horizontal axis

Roadmap determines resources required

Source: EIRMA (1997)

Technology Roadmapping and Strategy (Contd.)

Source: Phaal & Muller , 2009

Technology Roadmapping and Strategy (Contd.)

Level of TRM Maturity

Source: Kappel , 2001

Purpose and Format of Technology Roadmaps (Contd.)

Source: Karlsson & Dawidson (2003)

• TRM research field is relatively new but constantly evolving through the three generations (Letaba, Pretorius & Pretorius, 2015): 1st Generation TRM – a product-technology roadmapping approach

concerned with continuous product-technology platformTypically based on a single root technology (Tierney, Hermina & Walsh, 2013) Incremental innovation

2nd Generation TRM – forecasting the development and commercialisation of a new or emerging technology (Walsh, 2004) It is therefore called Emerging Technology Roadmap Analysis of life cycle difference between emerging and existing root technology for a

potential transition (Tierney, Hermina & Walsh, 2013)

3rd Generation TRM – roadmapping of converging or competing multiple root technologies (Kamtsiou et al., 2014)No predetermined architecturally stable product-process platforms (Tierney, Hermina &

Walsh, 2013)Communication is important to navigate through a network of complementary products

and technologies

Knowledge Evolution of TRM Research Field

Technology Roadmapping Process

IEA Technology Roadmapping Process

Source: IEA , 2014

Technology Roadmapping Process

T-Plus Fast Start Technology Roadmapping Process

Source: Phaal, Farrukh & Probert (2000)

Conceptual Framework

• A complex system has emergent properties at a system level and isadaptive to changes in its local environment

• They have adaptive and dynamic behaviour that maintains a stableequilibrium state of autonomous parts through resistance andresilience (co-evolutionarity, self-modification, self-reproduction,multiple alternative attractors, phase changes, unpredictability, etc.)

• Transition management of a complex innovation system takes placeat multilevel (niche innovations, sociotechnical landscape andsociotechnical regimes)

• Transition management involves changes on sociotechnical systemsfrom established paradigm to a new one = innovation managementbased on both technological and social innovation

Transition Management and Complex Systems Theories

• Technology leapfrogging assumes skipping of industrialisationtrajectories followed by developed countries and to leapfrog directlyinto a new innovation regime as part of new capacity addition

• In order to achieve leapfrogging, the following conditions need to bemet: i) a shift towards new sustainable production approaches, ii) anaction from the outset, iii) technology transfer from developedeconomies, iv) strengthening of the incentive regime and v)international assistance (Perkins, 2003)

• Leapfrogging can enable developing countries to be significantinnovative role players on established global markets, but also on thenew markets created by the shifting innovation landscape

Technology Leapfrogging

• Incorporates key TM phases on horizontal axis (predevelopment, take-off, upscaling & stabilisation)

• Transition is a shift from a dominant sociotechnical regime to a new-one

• High uncertainty during a predevelopment phase

• Incorporates complex system properties

Proposed TRM Format for Complex Innovation Systems/ Developing Countries

- Customisation of a generic TRM process Nothing wrong with

TRM techniques (Walsh 2004) Blind application

of these techniques

- TM & complex systems theory

Proposed Technology Roadmapping Process for DCs

Innovation Dynamics

• Proposition 1: the main innovation priority for TRMs in developingcountries is technological capability development

• Proposition 2: the main innovation priority for TRMs of private sectorcompanies in developing countries is technology development andmarket integration

• Proposition 3: external networks of partners are valuable sources ofcompetitive advantage for innovation programmes that are part ofTRMs in developing countries

• Proposition 4: timing of the innovation landscape’s window ofopportunity is important for technology roadmapping in developingcountries in order to create the innovation competitive advantage

• Proposition 5: novel innovation pathways are likely to result fromtechnology roadmap innovation programmes that make use ofbiotechnology, nanotechnology and environmental technologies

Deduced Analytical Propositions (Innovation Dynamics)

• Carbon nanotubes (nanotechnology): several energy applications (e.g.electrical transmission lines, batteries and fuel cells)

• A workshop held at the Bartlett School of Architecture, UniversityCollege London: A New Model for Sustainability and the BuiltEnvironment Using Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, InformationTechnology, and Cognitive Science with Living Technology (Armstrong,2009)

• Novel Solar Energy Applications (making use of nanotechnology)

• Biotechnology and built environment

• Smart houses, factories, cities, etc.

Novel Innovation Pathways in Built Environment

Technology Roadmaps in Developing Countries

• Proposition 6: third generation TRMs are dominant in developing countries

• Proposition 7: private sector TRMs in developing countries are geared moretowards technology leapfrogging in relation to the public sector TRMs

• Proposition 8: in developing transition-based TRMs for developing countriesthere should be a balance between involvement of stakeholders from dominantproduct-technology platform and those who seek new modes of innovation

• Proposition 9: scenario planning is an appropriate technique to use forselection of technologies and products that are part of TRMs in developingcountries

• Proposition 10: monitoring and update of technology roadmaps are criticallyimportant for transition-based roadmaps in developing countries and suchfunction should be championed by the owners of the roadmap

Deduced Analytical Propositions (TRM in Developing Countries)

Phase 1: Preliminary Activities

• Satisfy essential conditions: Situation analysis of the roadmappingorganisation or the beneficiary organisation is important to understandingthe current or potential organisational capabilities versus that of theincumbents and to assess the window of opportunity within theinnovation landscape (proposition 4).

• Provide leadership and sponsorship: Proposition 3 provides arecommendation for the involvement of the external network of partners(innovation landscape, dominant innovation regime and niche innovators).Proposition 8 suggests that there should be a balance between aninvolvement of stakeholders from a dominant product-technologyplatform and those who seek new modes of innovation.

Step-by-Step Technology Roadmapping Process for Developing Countries

Phase 1: Preliminary Activities (Contd.)

• Define scope and boundaries for the technology roadmap: the scope ofthe roadmap should include a relatively longer time line, which is typically20 – 25 years for the transition-based technology roadmaps, although theprivate sector organisations might seek to leapfrog through a relativelyshorter time period (proposition 7). The latter is preferred for thetransition-based third generation technology roadmaps (proposition 6).

Step-by-Step Technology Roadmapping Process for Developing Countries (Contd.)

Phase 2: Technology Roadmap Development

• Identify the products that will be the focus of the roadmap: Scenarioplanning can also be useful on this step (proposition 9).

• Identify the critical system requirements and their targets: the blue-ocean strategic management tools such as the strategy canvas can help inidentifying the critical system requirements and their targets for the nicheinnovations.

• Specify the major technology areas: in identifying the technology areas,the emerging technologies on areas such as biotechnology,nanotechnology and environmental technologies are ideal for the novelinnovation pathways (proposition 5)

Step-by-Step Technology Roadmapping Process for Developing Countries (Contd.)

Phase 2: Technology Roadmap Development (Contd.)

• Identify technology alternatives and their time lines: a set of scenariosneed to be developed based on technology drivers and their valuation aswell as the associated assumptions (proposition 9)

• Recommend the technology alternatives that should be pursued: theselection of technology alternatives should take into account theorganisation’s objectives, transition objectives and a cost-benefit tradeoff.

• Create the technology roadmap report: the proposed transition-basedtechnology roadmap format is recommended for a high-level visualisationof the roadmap.

Step-by-Step Technology Roadmapping Process for Developing Countries (Contd.)

Phase 3: Follow-up Activities

• Critique and validate the roadmap: fine-tuning of the technologyroadmap assumptions through consultation of the stakeholders, eventhose who are entrenched on a dominant product technology platform.

• Develop an implementation plan: there should be a high degree offlexibility to adapt to the changes in innovation landscape and for thepossible response by the incumbents (learning by doing).

• Review and update the roadmap: Proposition 10 mentions the need forinvolvement of roadmapping owners for its monitoring and update.

Step-by-Step Technology Roadmapping Process for Developing Countries (Contd.)

Thank You

Dr Petrus Letaba

Petrus.Letaba@dst.gov.za

27 12 844 0951