fred schmude stormwatch manager impactweather, inc. fschmude@impactweather.com fred specializes in...

Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com

Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

2012 Spring Weather OutlookMay Update

ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.

Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com

Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

2012 Spring Weather OutlookMay Update

Spring Weather Outlook for 2012

•Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño risks and effects)

•Review of spring tornado and high wind reports

•Review of the April temperature & precipitation pattern

• May weekly and monthly forecast (find the most vulnerable severe risk areas) May, June and July projected flow pattern & T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas)

•Summer outlook, including a brief tropical outlook

•Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring

•Tropics Sneak Preview

Warming WaterDeveloping El Niño?

PDO Cold Phase Colder

Water

SmallNegative

IOD

Current(-0.1C)

El Niño

La Niña

~+1.3C...Moderate El Niño

El Niño

La Niña

Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development

Upper air outflow enhance upper-level

wind shear

Effects of Warming Water in Eastern Tropical Pacific

Forecast ENSO Trends•Initiation of EL Niño by early summer

•Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013

•Likely to be moderate in intensity at about (+1.0 to +1.4C)

REVIEWTornadoes, Temperature, Rainfall and Flow Pattern from January thru May 1, 2012

Avera

ge Tr

end

2005

-201

1

Current #

Average

Projected Precipitation Outlook for Apr-Jun, 2012

ElevatedSevere Risk

Area

BESTCHANCE

Mean Storm Track

2011

2008

Projection~1500

Proj

ectio

nCurrent

MUCH ABOVE

NORMAL!+8 to +16F

ABOVENORMAL!+3 to +6F

Projected Temperature Outlook for April, 2012

WARMER

WARMER

North America April Temperature Anomalies

WETWET

WETWET

WET

DRY DRY

DRY

WET

WET

WETWET

WET

WET

WET

DRIER

DRIER

DRIER

DRIER

Projected Precipitation Outlook for April, 2012

Lower Pressure

Lower Pressure

HigherPressure

HigherPressure

HigherPressure

April Mean Flow Pattern

April Mean Flow Pattern/Temp Overlay

FORECAST

+4 to +8F

-3 to -6F

Mostly

Dry

Mostly

Dry

Mostly

Dry

Weather Trends for May 8th-14th, 2012

STORMY

UNSETTLED

NearNorma

l

NearNorma

l

NearNorma

l

+2 to +4F

+3 to +6F

-2 to -4F

HEAVY RAIN&

FLOODING RISK

-1 to -3F

NearNorma

l

UNSETTLED

UNSETTLED

Mostly

Dry

Weather Trends for May 15th-21st, 2012

Warmer

ThanNorma

lWarm

er Than

Normal

Warmer

ThanNorma

l

Cooler Than

Normal

Cooler Than

Normal

NearNorma

l

STORMY

UNSETTLED

Mostly

Dry

Mostly

Dry

Mostly

Dry

Warm

er Than

Normal

NearNorma

l

Projected Temperature Outlook for May, 2012

Projected Precipitation Outlook for May, 2012

H

H

HH

L

LL

L

Mean Storm

Track

WARMER

WARMER

COOLER

Enhanced SevereWeather Risk

Projected Flow Pattern For May-July, 2012

Projected Temperature Outlook for May-Jul, 2012

Enhanced SevereWeather Risk

Projected Precipitation Outlook for May-Jul, 2012

Projected Temperature Outlook for July-Sept, 2012

Projected Precipitation Outlook for July-Sept, 2012

El Niño

COOLER WATER

•Monitor for Home Grown Storm Gulf/ W Car.Tropics

“Sneak Peek” For 2012

Higher WesterlyWind Shear Likely“Negative Factor”

“Another Negative Factor”

•Risk will be lower than normal for a TC strike•However, some very memorable TCs have occurred during +ENSO events •Preliminary estimates call for 10-5-2

Abnormally Dry (yellow)Moderate Drought (tan)

Severe Drought (red)

Exceptional Drought (dark red)

DROUGHT

DROUGHT

DROUGHT

WET SOIL

• Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7• Seasonal outlook forecasting• Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification• Offshore/marine forecasting year-round• Customized weather websites• Direct consultation with a meteorologist• Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan ConsultingWebinar Questions:

fschmude@impactweather.comMore information(877) 792-3220

sales@impactweather.com