from an extractive to a beneficiation economy: the vital role of water parliamentary round table...
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From an Extractive to a Beneficiation Economy: The Vital Role of Water
Parliamentary Round Table DiscussionCape Town
30 March 2010
© AR Turton, 2010.
Prof. Anthony TurtonDirector: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd
Vice President: International Water Resource Associationbronwyn@speakersinc.co.za
www.anthonyturton.com
World Water Scarcity 1990
Water scarcity is related to population growth as much as it is related to environmental factors
World Water Scarcity 2020
Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both pass into extreme stress because of population growth
World Water Scarcity 2050
Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo as extremely stressed systems
World Water Scarcity 2070
At this stage the most economically active portion of Southern Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa
The Externalization of Costs Model
Value
Time
Dev Cost
Revenue
V1
V2
Profit
Mine Closure
T1
Remediation Cost
Magnitude at Closure
T2
Externalized Costs
© Adler et al., 2007
Balance Sheet Items
Off-Balance Sheet Items
Our national economic growth has been driven by an externalized cost model and this
can no longer be sustained
Changing Economic Paradigms
Value
Time
Externalized Cost Economic Model:
Apartheid State
New Economic Model:
Developmental State?
Human CapacityEnergy CapacityWater Capacity
We need considerable Thought Leadership and the
support of the Private Sector, Government and the Trades
Union to make this transition.
Opening the debate on the possible role of Social
Entrepreneurship – a fusion of capitalism (with a a small “c”) and
socialism (with a small “s”).
Fact # 2: Acid rain causes pollen tube deformation in maize by mobilizing aluminium and thus threatens our
national food security. (Google “aluminium toxicity maize” for more info).
Fact # 1: Our coal deposits coincide with our best agricultural land and this means our energy addiction to coal is destroying our
national agricultural capacity because of AMD.
N
500 km
Maputo
Orange-Senqu
Limpopo
Incomati
Key
Episodic river
Shared river basin
© P.J. Ashton
Quality Problems in Shared Basins
G
RG
G
G = Groundwater contamination - fluoride and/or nitrate
T
T = Acidic atmospheric deposits
AU
E
EAA
A
MU
AAMU
ASM
U MAU
A E S M R UA
A
UE
EU
MA
U
A
E
U = Urban / industrial effluent – pathogens + nutrients + organics
M = Metals (mining)
R = Radioactivity
S = Salinity
E = Excessive sediment
A = Agricultural chemicals
Surface strata
Dolomites
Ore-bearing strata
Eastern Basin
Central Basin
Western BasinDyke Dyke
Safety drive
Workings
Vertical Shaft
Acid Mine Drainage in Gauteng
The volume of the mine void under the Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume of
Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss – with new thinking and political will this can become a major
source of New Water
Reverse Osmosis is a robust technology that has been proven in eMalahleni
Having this as strategic storage enables new Dam Operating Rules to be applied with national
benefits
Years
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
20
40
80
60
Wat
er D
eman
d (1
09 m3 y
r1 )(bi
llion
m³/
yr¹)
Highest water use estimate
Lowest water use estimate
Total surface + groundwater resources (accessible with new technology)
Total surface resources (existing technology)
Q x F = Y Q = volume of water available
at national level at a high assurance of
supply
Y = volume of water needed at national level at a high assurance
of supply to sustain the economy
F = Flux value of water
Flux value of water = 1.7
38 x 1.7 = 64.6
Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (2008:19)
38 x .8 = 30.4
This is our problem
Water in rivers and dams known as the Resource
Reticulated potable water
needed to sustain socioeconomic
activities
Waste water draining the
economy known as the Return Flow
Rainfall (natural) and Return Flow (engineered) component of the Resource
Hydrological & Ecological System
Strategic Storage System
Municipal Potable Water System
Municipal Waste Water System
National Government Jurisdiction Local Government Jurisdiction
As water demand exceeds the natural supply of rainfall, the majority of the national resource will start to become dependent on urban runoff – hence the need to prioritize return flow management (sewage, AMD,
industrial effluent).
Recycling will become the hydrological foundation of our national economy and
future growth will depend on this.
Water is a Flux
Thank You
Water is a Flux
This is the solution for
Economic Growth
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