future health care

Peter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

ca-global.org

Future Health Care...largely unseen, but on

the radar !

cochrane.org.uk

Wednesday, 14 March 12

Context, context! My kingdom for Context!

Richard The Third Act 5, scene 4, 7–10

With apologies to William Shakespear

The rules of the game have changed...

Healthcare worldwide is struggling to cope...in the future it will be much worse...

S o l u t i o n s w i l l b e technology driven and come from the home and local facilitues...

...only the timing is the issue...

A recent example...a family member is now suffering this and can’t speak...

The NHS supplied this...

But I thought we could do a lot better with an i P a d a n d a F r e e App...and I was right!

We will be the last generation to know so little about our health and the state of our bodies...

Home testing, diagnosis and treatment wi l l (have to ?) grow...

Much of it will be built in . . . sub l imina l . . .and those who elect to opt out or ignore the data, and warning signs / fail to take action will die early...

Technology has moved t h e c e n t r e o f gravity...and it won’t s t o p . . . i t w i l l o n l y accelerate...and we have to do much better than just hanging on...

And there is no going back...

This is the new norm, the new stability...

The Red Queen hypothesis, Alice in Wonderland: Lewis Carroll

“It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place”

Networks of people and things have changed the way we see our w o r l d , t h i n k a n d act...with social nets and distributed working now centre stage...

Users now call the shots, with creativity, problem solving and innovation moving to the edge...

Old people, systems, lawyers,managers, companies, societies, governments . . .a re finding it hard to cope, and even harder to change...

The only human that likes change...

...and even they cry and s c r eam t houghou t t h e process !

“…can be almost impossible, and it is generally far easier to build a new one”

Changing an established company !

Niccolò Machiavelli 1469 - 1527

This is what you have

This is what you haveThis is what you need

But giant leaps are risky!

Exciting - and very definitely dangerous !!

A n d y e t s o m e companies seem to get it right !

How do they do it?

By understanding...

What is available

What it can do now

What it will do in future

By understanding a n d s a t i s f y i n g markets

Make it easyMake it simpleMake it obviousMake it convenient

Solve a problemSatisfy a need

Deliver value

By understanding & s a t i s f y i n g customers...

...which is now quite a span !!

Timing !

Has to be spot on

During the reformation ever yth ing became stove-piped... initially t h i s b rough t huge benefit, but it is now a major inhibitor...

...there is only science...

We really do have to start taking a much wider perspective to see what must be done, when and by what mechanisms...nothing is disconnected anymore; the ecology, economy, technology and all of life on this planet shares a mutual dependency...

So what is the big future opportunity !

The world of atoms and bits is coming together...

Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models...

Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges won’t cure this problem..

We have to stop doing things like this and find planet (and p e o p l e ) f r i e n d l y alternatives...

Underu sed v i deo conference is a sign of the lack of network b a n d w i d t h a n d connectivity...

...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology !

Tele-operations in the NHS c i rc a 1992...

And 20 years on it is still seen as on the leading edge...

People are always the ultimate road block to our progress... the biggest risk to success...and now we are far slower to change than our technology...

Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society...

So, whats on, and just over the horizon ?

It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution

Nano Bio

IT + AI

It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution

This is where all the real action is going to be

Nano Bio

IT + AI

Moving on from bulk materials and the d e s t r u c t i o n o f resources...

. . . 3 D p r i n t i n g i s g o i n g mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office

and home

It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize complex s t ruc tures , and

integrated components...

In the extreme it will change everything...

...and we have to think in terms of shipping designs and not

goods...

For those who don’t see how 3D printers will change the way we live...

...how about a printed jaw and other body parts...scaffolding for bone growth and repair where cure is impossible

T i s s u e I n j e c t i o n Molding..

Trachea 2002

Vertrebal Disc 2002

Cranofacial Implants2003

Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities...

Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...

We can afford to have a gene decode @ $600 & 0.5day...

...and within 5 years it will be $10 and 10min...

Nano - s en so r s a nd decoding the genome will change medicine and care...

...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...

All the science we need to make a tri-c o r d e r i s n o w available...

...all that is left is the e n g i n e e r i n g o f a product...

Scanadu - NASA Research Park Moffett Field CA

This all leads to an e x p e c t a t i o n o f technology assisted personal survival...

Total Body Scan -bio samples to

storage

Continual Monitoring

Injury or IllHealth

Repair and Regeneration

And perhaps a little fine tuning!

But there is much much more rapidly approaching!

We can now manipulate individual atoms and program cell by cell...

And our machines are designing machines...

Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...mutating matter....

Really interesting exper iences this year so far!

A new breed, and a new model operating at the edge...

A global network of home bio-labs is now producing useful results and contributing to the professional world...

...the happened before in the 1940 - 2010 with electronics, hi-fi, radio, computers , software , apps...

And what of the connected world and mainstream ?

For most professionalsthe amount of data and info is doubling in less than 2 years !

They can’t cope, but the patients can...

A solution is coming from the direction of a game show out of the USA - Jeopardy...

This application of AI is really powerful and will soon be available via The Cloud...

Life and death decisions are a fact of life...

To say the least this p o s e s s o m e v e r y serious issues...

And this is only the beginning of a whole n e w l i n e o f s e l f generating technology...

The world is no longer simple, linear and well behaved....it never has been...but now it really shows...

The complexities of Mother Nature have now been compounded by those we have engineered!

Outcomes are very often counterintuitive and small things can often have very big consequences...

Stress and mental illness amongst the professional classes is becoming an epidemic!

We are not going to get any smarter and the situation can only get worse !

We need help and there is only one direction to look !

We need a different perspective and new ways of thinking...

Computer modelling, scenario testing, risk assessment, decision support...

And there is so much more...

• Social nets use GPS to go real

• Machine to machine + robotics

• Telepresence for maintenance

• Logistics and RFID + tracking

• Vehicle and people tracking

• Appliance and device tracking

• Dynamic energy management

• Interactive books & newspapers

• Interactive media

• The death of radio, TV, print +++

New e c o n om i e s fuelled by data and meta-data

Where you are ?Where you have been ?Where you are likely to be going to ?Who you have met ?Who you are going to meet ?Who you call ?Who calls you ?Who you TXT - IM - Link ?All your contactsAll your urlsAll you passwordsWhat you are doing now ?What have you done in the past ?What games you play ?What apps you use ?What music you listen to...?What you watch...?What you read...?++++++++++

Big government & big companies ‘think big centralized solutions’...

...and the almost always fail...complexity kills !

But local small scale system almost always do a far better job...

Tagging for life

Chunky technology

PrettyJewelry

Limited information

Cradleto Grave

Chips and tags on and in everythingincluding goods, animals & people

Challenges - My Big 3 !

Artificial Intelligence

Bio/Nano Sensors

Manufactured Parts

Life will be governed by our da ta , bu t our survival will be decided by our MetaData...

Thank You

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk

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