future internet towards 2020 a systemic change perspective hans schaffers aalto university school of...
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Future Internet Towards 2020 A Systemic Change Perspective
Hans Schaffers
Aalto University School of Economics , Centre of Knowledge and Innovation Research (CKIR)E-mail: hans.schaffers@aalto.fi
2nd FIA Roadmap Workshop 25.06.2012
The FIA Research Roadmap was built around four key questions1. What is changing (society,
technology)
2. What is the vision, what are the impacts
3. What are the challenges and gaps
4. What are the solutions and research needs
Takes wider view than technology, addresses socio-economic-business challenges
Covers FI research but also the research approaches and the innovation process
Limited involvement of communities and dialogue
How will the Roadmap be used, by whom, for what impact
Roadmapping opportunities and limitations Tool originally used in business
and research environments Management of research and
innovation Aims for planning of research
and technology development Not a forecast or prediction Links research, technologies and
objectives Does not explicitly address
systemic linkages Useful as a tool for establishing
dialogue, helps achieving consensus and stimulates debate in planning environment Source: Bmaps
Foresight and roadmapping
Strategic management of research, technology, innovation
Awareness, anticipating and preparing for futures and changes
Innovation capabilities and conditions Looking also at alternative futures and
scenarios Addresses complex systems and systemic
linkages; facilitating systems innovation Based on dialogue, participation;
supporting the actors Tools: scenarios, systems science,
dialogues and debates, Delphi surveys Roadmap as visualisation of foresight
exercise outcome
The Internet “ecosystem”
The Internet ecosystem comprises a variety of actors and communities that develop the Internet, make it work, and using it
• Technologists, engineers, architects, creatives, standards organisations• Global and local organisations e.g. managing addressing (ICANN)• Operators, vendors, developers• Internet users and co-creators• Policy and decision makers
The Internet ecosystem embodies and integrates interlinked developments
• Technological change • Business and industry change• Policy and regulatory change• Societal change and transformation
The ecosystemic nature of the Internet requires a different approach to preparing for alternative futures than roadmapping Source: ISOC
Internet ecosystem visualisations demonstrate different viewpoints
Infrastructure
Industry
Network
Social
Internet ecosystem and systemic change
Technological interplay, disruptive change
Technological interplay, disruptive change
Using and shaping the Internet
Using and shaping the Internet
Industry change, value networks, business models
Industry change, value networks, business models
Policy development, legal/regulatory change
Policy development, legal/regulatory change
Network technologies and architecturesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment
Network technologies and architecturesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment
Access regulationPrivacy, securityIdentityNet neutralityCompetition
Access regulationPrivacy, securityIdentityNet neutralityCompetition
Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks
Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks
Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions
Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions
Macro Socio-Technical Landscape
Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation
Standards opennessInternet value networks
Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet
Green Internet
Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation
Standards opennessInternet value networks
Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet
Green Internet
Drivers of systemic change: macro changes, niche developments, resolving of tussles …
Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions
Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions
Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks
Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks
Network technologiesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment
Network technologiesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment
Access regulationMarket regulation, competitionPrivacy, security, identityNet neutrality
Access regulationMarket regulation, competitionPrivacy, security, identityNet neutrality
For socio-economic tussles: see SESERV projectNiches and disruptive
technologiesExisting regimes vs drivers of change
Socio-technical debates and Internet futures
Short term Medium term Long term
Societal change and users
Industry and business models
Policy, regulatory development
Technological change
Research and innovation
Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation
Standards opennessInternet value networks
Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet
Green Internet
Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation
Standards opennessInternet value networks
Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet
Green Internet
1) Future Internet and smart cities
FIREBALL White Paper (2012)
Intel Industry clusters and
sectors
SmartHousing Districts
i-University
i-Science Parks and Incubators
i-Transporthubs
Intel CBDSmart
Port district
Developing towards a smarter city requires “systemic change”
An innovation roadmap is a tool for creating consensus and understanding about potential futures and about pathways towards these futures
Understanding smart city dynamic development as “systemic change” requires understanding of interplays and co-evolution regarding technology developments, human behaviours, policies and strategies
Living Labs, policy experiments may act as “niches” where opportunities are provided for limited scale innovation and learning (introduction, use, evaluation, modification -> wider scale adoption
Technologies for smart(er) cities
Technology area Main developments in relation to smart cities
Cloud computing Urban clouds reducing IT costs and providing platforms for small business applications and e-servicesVirtualization of physical spacesStandardisation of platforms and applications for smart cities
Real-world user interfaces, RFID
IoT sensor networks in combination with Web 2.0, social media, crowdsourcing providing opportunities for collective intelligenceUrban IoT platforms offering common framework for ambient sensor networks
Semantic web, Linked data, Ontologies
Open Data from various sources offer opportunities for advanced intelligence e.g. Detect patterns, generate alerts, visualize information, predict trendsSemantic Web enhances opportunity to merge different categories of dataEnables content and context fusion, immersive multi-sensory environments, location based context aware contentEnhanced opportunities for user involvement and user generate content
Smart city strategies implementation prospects and hurdlesStrengths Opportunities• Cultural heritage, attractiveness •Development strategies, planning• Broadband network deployment•Major development initiatives
• Competitiveness of local clusters• Exploiting service innovation opportunities towards new business• Opportunities for local ICT sectors and entrepreneurship•Introducing participatory city planning
Weaknesses Threats• Top down orientation to planning•Lacking attention to concrete needs of citizens and SMEs• Digital gaps• Lacking orientation on entrepreneurship•Weak policy and funding instruments• Impact and benefits measurement
• Economic crisis, lack of resources• Vulnerable business models for sustainability of public sector initiatives• Low level of private investment in R&D and innovation• Weak institutional environments for technology and innovation
Smart cities challenges for next years
Networks of Future Internet testbed facilities and living labs within and across smart cities and regions may become the backbone of European innovation ecologies and value networks – Horizon 2020
Capabilities and resources, including experiment facilities , user oriented methodologies, service offerings and collaboration models enabling access and use of facilities and services should evolve
Smart Cities are environments to experiment technologies and applications, however the potential for business creation and entrepreneurship should be stimulated (e.g. DAIR, Canada)
Open innovation and citizen empowerment requires finding new balances between top-down steering and bottom-up initiative
Assessment of the impact and benefits of “smarter cities” in terms of value created for citizens. There is a lack of evidence showing impact, how can we achieve and measure the impact and value added of smart city initiatives?
Final remarks
FIA Roadmap may adopt more explicitly a systemic innovation and change perspective
Addressing systemic issues of technology systems as socio-technical systems, including adoption bottlenecks
FIA Roadmap may focus more in-depth on specific issues or “subsystems”
It may turn into a more or less permanent foresight activity, building upon a community representing diverse interests regarding the future Internet
It might be a joint undertaking supported by various projects and programmes
Selected references
Benkler, Y (2006) The Wealth of Networks -> battle over institutional ecology of the Internet, legal and regulatory debates
Könöllä, T. (2007) Innovation Roadmap: Exploring Alternative Futures of Industrial Renewal -> applies transition concept to roadmapping
Geels, F. (2006) Major systems change through stepwise reconfiguration -> and other literature on “transition management”
FIA Roadmap (2011) ISOC (2010) The Internet Ecosystem FIREBALL White Paper (2012) www.fireball4smartcities.eu IFTF (2011) A Planet of Civic Laboratories SAFECITY project (FI PPP) SESERV project -> tussles. FIA Book 2011, 2012 have cases Oxford Internet Institute (2010), Towards a Future Internet
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