future of voice - welcome to the workshop

Welcome to the Future of Voice Workshop

8th October 2013Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.commail@martingeddes.com

Introduction

Voice is hot! But telephony is not....

Two years ago Predicting “peak telephony” Risk of voice over-supply OTT = threat WebRTC = “What?” Voice-in-apps as concept CEBP VoLTE = problems foreseen RCS = dead BYOD Skype, Facebook, G Voice

Now Volume & value declines Risk of voice under-demand OTT = partner / opportunity WebRTC = real, growing APIs & cloud telephony Hypervoice VoLTE = problems real RCS = undead BYOX Instagram, Snapchat, Kik

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Oct 2013

Source: Finnish regulator

Note: fixed calls getting shorter, mobile longer

Vodafone OpCos

Change in usage/sub Q2'12 vs Q2'13

Call Mins SMS

Germany 20% -9%UK -3% -7%Netherlands

3% -40%

Turkey 11% 15%Romania 3% 26%Spain 29% -27%Greece -4% -13%Portugal 3% 5%India3 7% 31%Egypt -2% -41%

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Where do you stand?

Short and brutal

Does traditional telephony have a future?

Long and fruitful

Questions

Who are you? What is your purpose in being here?

Are there any “burning issues” you have? Do you have any questions you want

answered today? Why do you locate yourself in that place?

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

What’s happening?

What Dean Bubley is working on.... WebRTC

Research reports & updates Vendor & operator private workshops; “Where’s the money?” Speaking engagements, webinars & white papers

Trends in legacy voice & SMS Video – where’s it going to fit? Telecom vendor value chain & dynamics

“Why did Oracle buy Acme?”, “Is open-source a big deal?” Telco/OTT, Telco-OTT & Telco vs. OTT WiFi & small cells Policy management & charging; MBB business models Regulatory – spectrum, Net Neutrality, Internet governance

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

What Martin Geddes is working on.... Cloud (voice) connectivity “supply chain management”

Retail broadband business model (esp. OTT partnership) Wholesale service delivery chain (e.g. IPX) Carrier-neutral cloud platforms, performance & hazard analysis

QoE measurement and cost management Multi-point network probing (“fMRI scans for networks”) Telco “lifestyle changes” – to lower cost/raise QoE “Collapsing complexity” in OSS/BSS

Regulatory – “fitness-for-purpose” Changing basis of broadband regulation away from “peak speeds” Network neutrality

Whacky obscure mathematical future network stuff Contention Management, RINA

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

What’s goingon for you?

Questions

What's moving: faster than you anticipated?

slower than your expectations?

What’s easier or harder? What’s surprised you?

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

What’s next?

Where are we? What’s the landscape?

1. Background trends What’s new & what’s real?

2. Hypervoice

3. WebRTC

4. “Other stuff”

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

What’s new in voice, video & messaging?

Oct 2013

Dull Shiny

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Lot of important stuff occurring, but....

Tariffs & plans

Regulation

HD Voice

Outsourcing

BYOD

Enterprise UC

SIP trunking

Cable voice

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Sexy, shiny stuff!

WebRTC

Hypervoice

Telco-OTT

New revenue

New apps

Cloud / APIs

NFV / SDN

Video

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Fragmentation of voice (& video) models

Standalone calls

Non-call comms

Embedded app/web

calls

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Neuroscience explains reluctance to change

Predictable irrationality

Endowment effect Optimism bias Confirmation bias Defence of belief systems

Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Get in touch

We can help you prepare for a world where voice is a feature, not a service. Find out more

Oct 2013

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.comtwitter.com/disruptivedeanwww.disruptive-analysis.comNewsletter

mail@martingeddes.comTwitter.com/martingeddeswww.martingeddes.comNewsletter

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013