fuzzy criteria for evaluation of water resources systems ...(el-baroudi and simonovic, 2004-download...

Fuzzy Criteria for Evaluation of Water Resources Systems Performance

Slobodan P. SimonovicProfessor and Research Chair

Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringInstitute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

The University of Western Ontario

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

2January 2006

Banda Aceh - before

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

3January 2006

Banda Aceh - after

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

4January 2006

New Orleans before

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

5January 2006

New Orleans after

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

6January 2006

New Orleans - flood

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

7January 2006

New Orleans –dike failure

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

8January 2006

New Orleans – dike failure

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

9January 2006

Katrina help

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

10January 2006

Presentation outline

ChallengesWater resources systems performance

Change of paradigmNew performance measures

A case studyLondon flood protection

Conclusions

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

11January 2006

Challenges

How to reduce the risk to water systems and in the same time obtain the social, environmental and economic benefits from the watershed areas under threat.How to improve our knowledge base

Prediction of hazardous eventsAssessment of risk and vulnerabilityIntegrated use of structural and non-structural protection measuresEnhancement of preparedness

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

12January 2006

Risk definition

Load and resistance conceptLoad l

a variable reflecting the behaviors of the system under certain external conditions of stress or loading

Resistance ra variable that describes the capacity of the system to overcome an external load

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

13January 2006

Risk definition

Failure or an incident

l > r

Safety or reliability

l ≤ r

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

14January 2006

Risk definition

Set of performance measuresRisk/reliability (how often?)Vulnerability (how much?)Resiliency (how long to recover?)Robustness (how able to adopt?)

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

15January 2006

Risk management confusion

Inadequate distinction between three fundamental concepts of risk

Objective risk (real, physical)Subjective risk (degree of belief)Perceived risk (individual’s feeling of fear)

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

16January 2006

Changing paradigm

Probabilistic world

0

1

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

17January 2006

Changing paradigm

Probabilistic world

0

1

Fuzzy world

1

0

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

18January 2006

Changing paradigm

Fuzzy world

1

0

µ - membership function

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

19January 2006

Fuzzy membership shapes

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

20January 2006

New performance measures

New fuzzy measures for system performance evaluation (El-Baroudi and Simonovic, 2004-download from www.slobodansimonovic.com )

Combined fuzzy reliability-vulnerabilityFuzzy robustnessFuzzy resiliency

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

21January 2006

New fuzzy performance measures

Failure

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

22January 2006

New fuzzy performance measuresFuzzy membership function of an acceptable level of performance

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

23January 2006

New fuzzy performance measuresFuzzy membership function of a system state

m or Θ

Fuzz

y m

embe

rshi

p va

lue

1

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

24January 2006

Fuzzy reliability and vulnerability

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

25January 2006

Fuzzy reliability and vulnerability

S,LS,L

S

WOACM =

WA

The compatibility measure

• provides information about system reliability and vulnerability• measure of proximity (overlap)

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

26January 2006

Fuzzy reliability and vulnerability

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

27January 2006

Fuzzy robustness measure

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

28January 2006

Fuzzy resiliency measure

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

29January 2006

Fuzzy resiliency measure

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

30January 2006

London flood protection case study

Use of fuzzy performance measuresSpatial extension of the concept

Calculation of measures at every point in spaceDevelopment of fuzzy performance maps

City of London flood protection

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

31January 2006

London flood protection case study

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

32January 2006

London flood protection case study

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

33January 2006

London flood protection case study

S.P. Simonovic

Flood Risk Management Workshop

34January 2006

Conclusions

Water resources systems are vulnerable to variety of hazardsMain challenge – diversity of uncertainty sourcesProbabilistic approach fails in case of human error, subjectivity, lack of history, etc.A fuzzy system reliability analysis offers an alternative approach