game rules rule #1: –the number of objects left in the bowl at the end of every 10 seconds will...

Game Rules

• Rule #1: – The number of objects left in the bowl at

the end of every 10 seconds will double. (max: 14)

• Rule #2: – The object of the game is for the players to

acquire as many objects as possible.

• Rule #3:– Players cannot communicate with each

other

Dollar Auction

• I will auction off a dollar in class today

• Rules: – Both the highest bidder and the

previous highest bidder have to pay their bids

International trends• In 1971, Italy’s population - 54

million• Bangladesh had 66 million people in

a smaller area (size of Wisconsin)

• In 2000, Italy’s population stabilized at 57 million

• Bangladesh population doubled to 132 million, and still growing

International trends• Italians now among world’s wealthiest &

best educated.• Bangladeshi children are mostly underfed,

unemployment is high, and literacy rate is low (65 percent are illiterate).

• Bangladeshis emigrants not welcome in India (also overcrowded). ~ ½ size of U.S., almost 4x number of people

• Why don’t Bangladeshis, like Italians, stop self-destructive overpopulation?

Defining Social Dilemmas

• Social Dilemma:– A situation in which individuals profit

from selfishness unless everyone chooses the selfish alternative, in which case everyone loses.

– Individuals must choose between maximizing their personal outcomes and maximizing their group’s outcomes

Bonnie and Clyde Arrested!

• Bonnie and Clyde have been arrested for suspected bank robbery, but the police has little evidence

• The police offered them immunity from prosecution for a confession

• If both stay silent then both get a short sentence on a minor charge

• If both blame other then both receive a moderate sentence

• If only one blames the other then that criminal goes free and the remaining criminal gets a long sentence

Keep silent (Coop)

Blame other (Defect)

Keep silent(Coop)

Blame other(Defect)

1 year

1 year

ClydeClyde

20 Years

20 YearsLife

Parole

Life

Parole

Prisoner’s Dilemma

BonnieBonnie

• This a social dilemma—there is no perfect choice.

• The best outcome occurs if both individuals cooperate and remain quiet.

• But the best individual outcome comes from confessing.

• Many social dilemmas pit individual against group interests.

What’s the Dilemma?Cooperate? Compete?

Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of

the Commons• Garrett Hardin (1968) noted common pastures in New England were often overgrazed.

• Each individual who shared a common pasture faced a dilemma:– Adding another animal could help him/her.– However, if everyone did this, the common pasture would be quickly ruined.

Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of

the Commons•Replenishing Resource

Management Dilemma: a situation in which group members share a renewable resource that will:– Continue to produce benefits if group

members don’t over-harvest, but – Each person profits from harvesting as

much as possible.

If students kept pool in top quarter,

points replenished

rapidly (1 every 6 sec)

2424

1818

1212

00

66

If they took points too fast, replenishment slowed

00

2424

1818

1212

66

Down to 12 sec in second

quarter

18 sec in third quarter

24 sec in 4th quarter

When last point taken,

the game was over

U.S. U.S. populatiopopulation as % of n as % of

world world totaltotal

U.S. U.S. energy energy

use as % use as % of world of world

totaltotal

“Goals” of Social Dilemmas

1. Gain immediate satisfaction

2. Defending ourselves and others

3. Reproduction

1. Gaining Immediate Satisfaction

• Social trapSocial trap situation where individuals or groups are drawn towards immediate rewards that later prove to have unpleasant or lethal consequences

1. Gaining immediate satisfaction

• How can we change the consequences of short-sighted behavior?

• Change the timing of rewards & punishments1. Use alternative technologies to change long-

term negative consequences2. Move future negative consequences into

present3. Add immediate punishments for undesirable

behavior4. Reinforce more desirable alternatives

Will any one strategy work?

Command-and Command-and ControlControl

Type of Type of InterventionIntervention

Market-basedMarket-based

VoluntaristVoluntarist

Motive Motive ActivatedActivated

FearFear Loss of Loss of educational educational benefits for benefits for

families families having too having too

many many childrenchildren

ExampleExample

GreedGreed

Tax rebates Tax rebates for for

consumers consumers who who

purchase purchase solar heating solar heating

panelspanels

Organization Organization appeals for appeals for people to people to

write write Congress in Congress in support of support of wilderness wilderness

preservationpreservationSocial Social

ResponsibilityResponsibility

2. Defending ourselves and others

• Defensive behavior in response to group conflict often has unintended negative consequences

Research Study: Threats• Participants could win/lose $$ by

making “truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes

• Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent

• Most $$ by cooperating on direct route

The Trucking Game

ACMEStart

ACMEDestination

BOLTDestination

BOLT Start

• Each company has indirect route

• A shared one lane short route

• Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route

ACMEStart

The Trucking Game

• Each company has indirect route

• A shared one lane short route

• Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route

Start A DestinationA

DestinationB

ACMEDestination

BOLTDestination

BOLT Start

ACMEStart

The Trucking Game

• Each company has indirect route

• A shared one lane short route

• Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route

Start A DestinationA

DestinationB

ACMEDestination

BOLTDestination

BOLT Start

Research Study: Threats• Participants could win/lose $$ by making

“truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes

• Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent

• Most $$ by cooperating on direct route• Opponent’s strategy:

– Punitive deterrent severe punishment if blocked

– Nonpunitive deterrent mild punishment, switched back to cooperative

– Turn-the-other-cheek no punishment ever

Ave

rage

Pay

off

Ear

ned

Ave

rage

Pay

off

Ear

ned 12

1st 2nd 3rd 4th

10

8

6

4

2

0

15 trial blocks

Non-punitive deterrentNon-punitive deterrent

Punitive deterrentPunitive deterrent

Turn-the-other-cheekTurn-the-other-cheek

The punitive strategypunitive strategy started out successfully, but over time it made the opponent angry and elicited

costly counter-attacks

Non-punitive Non-punitive deterrentdeterrent is similar to

“Tit-for-Tat” - rewards

cooperation, punishes defection

2. Defending ourselves and others

• Complex thinking in leaders goes down as conflict goes up

• Likelihood of failing at social dilemmas increases

The Dollar Game

• A game in which a group bids for a dollar, but in which second bidder also has to pay.

• Bidders begin seeking easy reward, but end up desperately trying to avoid loss.

• Bids sometimes go as high as $20(Teger, 1980)

• Real world example? – U.S. / U.S.S.R. arms race

The Dollar Game• 1947 - U.S. Sen. Edward

Johnson - “God almighty in his infinite wisdom dropped the A-bomb in our lap”

• 1948 - General Carl Spatz - predicted nukes would lead to “lasting peace”

• 1949 - Russians also blessed with the A-bomb

• 1952 - Americans developed more powerful H-bomb, Russians followed shortly

• 1950s- U.S. military concerned Russians had more nukes, feverishly built B-52 bombers

• 1961 - Americans 600 nuke bombers

Russians 190

• 1964 - Americans 800 ICBMs

Russians 200

• 1969- Americans – 4200 nukes

Russians - 1300

All the other dots All the other dots represent represent

firepower of firepower of world’s nuclear world’s nuclear

weapons by 1981weapons by 1981

Center dot Center dot represents represents

total total firepower of firepower of

all bombs all bombs dropped dropped

during WWIIduring WWIIincluding including

Nagasaki and Nagasaki and HiroshimaHiroshima

Defending ourselves and others

• What can we do to interrupt these dilemma spirals?

• One strategy = GRITGRIT (Graduated and Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension-reduction)– Publicly challenge the opponent to

match your de-escalations. – Used successfully by Kennedy on Kruschev, and Gorbachev on Reagan.

3. Reproduction

• According to natural selection, the implicit goal is to get more stuff in order to further reproductive ends – (e.g., more kids, kids that survive longer)

• The outcome of this goal may be the root of all major problems facing us today

• “No technical solution can rescue us from the misery of overpopulation. Freedom to breed will bring ruin to all.” – Garrett Hardin

What is the biggest problem facing the world?

OverpopulationOverpopulation

Dwindling Natural Resources Dwindling Natural Resources

Economic ProblemsEconomic Problems

Political and Military ConflictPolitical and Military Conflict

SOCIAL SOCIAL DILEMMASDILEMMAS

Human population

of world (Billions)

6

YEAR

0

5

4

3

2

1

1850 1900 1950 20001800

State of the World

Pop: 132 millionPop: 132 million

What can we do?

1. Recognize social dilemmas2. Resist ineffective interventions (e.g.,

punitive deterrent, turn-other-cheek)3. Education and population control4. Change salient goals (esp. away from

immediate satisfaction)5. Put tradition in its place6. Recognize there are no simple

solutions