gecafs-decision support systems
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GECAFS-DecisionSupport Systems
DSS
Questions, SCIENCE OutputsHypotheses
Science-based Toolkit
Society Policy Makers Data,Processes
Questions,Needs
Policies, Decision,Decisions Processes
DSS
DSS
Questions, SCIENCE OutputsHypotheses
Science-based Toolkit
DSS
Society Policy Makers Data,Processes
Questions,Needs
Policies, Decision,Decisions Processes
DSS
Questions, SCIENCE OutputsHypotheses
Science-based Toolkit
Society Policy Makers Data,Processes
Questions,Needs
Policies, Decision,Decisions Processes
DSS
Questions, SCIENCE OutputsHypotheses
Science-based Toolkit
Society Policy Makers Data,Processes
Questions,Needs
Policies, Decision,Decisions Processes
DSS
Initial Ideas/Designs for Decision Support Systems: QnD in the GECAFS project
Greg KikerAgricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.
P.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL 32611-0570
Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291Email: gkiker@ufl.edu
QnD Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
• QnD is a configurable decision support/scenario exploration program
• Currently we are working to combine QnD results with more available commercial MCDA software
• QnD + MCDA should allow both exploration of time-based, “tactical” management versus more policy-oriented, “strategic” trade-off analysis
• QnD™ – “Questions and Decisions™” or “Quick n Dirty”
• A fully integrated Graphic User Interface (GUI) with a flexible model engine
• One model - Many ecosystems– Java code / XML inputs / Open Source code
– “Uses Mainstream Technology”
• Java-based deployment in web browsers
• “Fast Deployment” (weeks/months)
• Spatial simulation with GIS linkage
• Multiple time steps
• Multiple maps/graphs/files for output variables
QnD Model: What is it?
subComponent
subProcess
“Simulation Engine” “Game View” User/Player’s point of contact
Communicates information
“Widgets”: Maps, Charts, Warning Lights, Text, Sliders, Icons, Buttons
User choices – management settings, simulate fast or slow time step, reset
Developer’s point of contact
Creates information
Objects: Components, Processes and Data
Calculation for selected time step
QnD Model: Main Sections
subComponent
subProcess
“Simulation Engine”
“Game View” Actors
QnD Java Source Code
GameDriver.java ModelCreator.java
PrimaryGameFrame.java
Players: Interact mostly with the game view.
• Explore management responses, adaptive opportunities, trade-offs for different scenarios.
• Provide reality checks
• Have some interest in the engine structure in their area of interest
• Provide ideas and directions for further iterations
Developers: Interact mostly with the engine.
• Design and implement engine/game view through XML files.
• Provide formal calibration/validations
• Implement ideas and directions of Players
• Have some interest in the model code
Coders: Interact mostly with the QnD source code.
• Develop java code to expand engine and game view utility
• Create new programming code for ideas from Players and Developers…
QnD: How Do You Use It?
• We have developed a Development ↔ Iteration methodology
• Exploring management/policy options under various scenarios– Explore management reactions/strategies– Teaching/Classroom/Learning sessions– Use expert opinion, “other” model results/relationships
• Use as a traditional model– Integrate field-measured results– Create predictions under various conditions
• Talk about the system, goals, desires
• Explore current management options
• Gather initial maps/data
• Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities
Genesis Session
Prototype QnD Game View and Simulation Engine
• Rough estimate of components, processes and data
• Simple information
• Deployed in limited circulation for calibration/reality checks
Iterative Sessions 1…n
• Refine goals, objectives• Explore current and possible management options• Calibrate/Validate engine performance• Revise Game View for relevant management information • Make changes concerning management options, relevant information and socio-economic factors
Deployed QnD Model
• Player/Developer reviewed components, processes and data
• More relevant information
• Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities
QnD: Development Methodology
2. ASSIMILATING:What can we do?
What are the themes whichConstitute potential areas
For improvement or transformation?
4. ACCOMMMODATING:What does it mean?
How do we use our modelsystem to establish debateamongst stakeholders, to
decide what is feasible, andto achieve the change?
1. DIVERGING:What is there?
Build as rich a picture as possible of the problem
situation, through conversation.
3. CONVERGING:What is important?
What system of human activitiesdo we need to design to achievethe transformation we believe
could lead to improvement of the situation?
Abstract world Real world
Soft systems considerations represented in terms of Kolb’s Knowledge Forms (after Bawden et al., 1984).
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