george dehne, vision 20:20

Vision 20/20Presentation to

The New American Colleges & Universities

ByGeorge Dehne

PresidentGDA Integrated Services

The freshman of 2020 is a first grader today.

“The likelihood that something will happen can be plausibly estimated by how often it occurred in the past.”

Thomas Bayes, 1760

High School Drop Outs

High school graduation rate had fallen steadily from 82.9% in 1980

to 77.5% in 2000, the latest statistics available. In 2005, the graduation rate was… • 69% African-Americans • 72% Hispanic• 80% Whites

In 2008, 1.23 million public high-school students failed to graduate with a diploma...

…6,829 lost per day.

Enrollment Shifts

At some point, probably just after 2020, minority students will outnumber whites on college campuses for the first time.

From 2007 to 2016, the population of college students ages

18 to 24 will increase by 11%

25 to 34 will increase by 27%

Adult Learners

• 20% growth between 1990 and 2007 in the total number of working adults who participated in adult-education courses

• 18% growth projected between 2007 and 2016 in the number of adult learners

U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics

Who Attends College

Percentage attending college by household income:

91% highest-income group (more than $100,000)

78% middle-income families ($50,001 to $100,000)

52% lowest-income families ($20,000 or less)

National Center for Education Statistics

Willingness to Pay

“Perhaps more serious for middle-tier colleges, studies show that higher-income families are less likely to pay a premium for a second-tier or lower college.”

Chronicle of Higher Education

Undergraduate Degree Completion

Complete a bachelor’s degree within 6 years:59% White 47% Hispanics41% African-Americans 39% American Indian

U.S. ranks 15th of 29 nations in college completion

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

International Students

Global demand for international higher education will grow from 2.17 million students in 2005 to 3.72 million in 2025.

Represents growth of 71% in 20 years,

Or compound growth of 2.7% per year.

International Students

49% of international students are from five nations of origin—India, China, South Korea, Japan, and Canada…

…or a total of 308,000.

97,452, or 32% are attending American universities as undergraduates,

165,582, or 54% were graduate students.

Why College?

“Only 39 percent of the jobs in the 10 fastest-growing occupations through 2016 will require a college degree.”

Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Top-Paying Jobs That Don't Require a Degree Air traffic controller $102,030Storage and distribution manager $66,600Transportation manager $66,600Police and detectives supervisor $64,430Non-retail sales manager $59,300Forest fire fighting and prevention supervisor $58,920Municipal fire fighting and prevention supervisor $58,902Real estate broker $58,720Elevator installers and repairer $58,710Sales representative $58,580Dental hygienist $58,350Radiation therapist $57,700Nuclear medicine technologist $56,450Child support, missing persons and unemployment insurance

fraud investigator $53,900Criminal investigators and special agent $53,990Immigration and Customs inspector $53,990Police detective $53,990Police identification and records officer $53,990Commercial pilot $53,870Talent director $52,840

Reality

Most of the higher-paying, career-oriented jobs increasingly require a college degree as a means of entry or advancement.

Projection

But impatience over how slowly colleges are changing is perhaps higher than ever as well.

Working in Off-Campus Jobs

50% of students at community colleges expect to work more than 20 hours per week.

26% of students at private four-year institutions expect to work more than 20 hours per week.

17% of students at public four-year institutions expect to work more than 20 hours per week.

Noel-Levitz

For Profits

By 2020 for-profit colleges will be educating 15% of all college students…

…compared with the 7% that they educate now.

Career College Association

For Profits

• 37% of students at for-profit colleges are minorities.

• 50% are the first generation in their families to attend college.

• More than 50% of dependent career-college students report household income of less than $40,000.

• More than 75% of the students are employed.

• Roughly 30% of operating budget goes to marketing.

Growth in Master’s Degrees

Between 2007 and 2018 the number of master's degrees is projected to …

– increase 28 percent overall; – increase 23 percent for men; and – increase 31 percent for women.

Nearly twice as many master’s degrees were awarded in 2008 than in 1980.

Master’s in Management

7 of 10 one-year full-time MBA programs had 21% increase in applications over 2008.

2 of 3 flexible MBA programs had a 14% increase in applications over 2008.

Rise of the Specialized Master’s Degree

A shifting employment market may mean the best jobs would require specialized training

and

A realization in university circles that master’s programs could be wildly profitable.

Online

In 2008, nearly 25% of college students in the United States—some 4 million—took an online course.

2 out of 3 were from the college in which they were enrolled.

In 2007-2008, more than 2 out of 3 school districts had at least one student who was taking an online course.

Sloan Consortium

Online Learning

Projection

Colleges that have resisted putting some of their courses online will almost certainly have to expand their online programs quickly.

Technology

In 2000, there were 2.6 million broadband households in the US, one out of every 40 homes.

Now there are 80 million or two-thirds of the population.

Starting from zero, digital video recorders reached 31 million homes.

HDTV reached 51 million in this decade.

Mobile phones subscriptions are now 270 million, out of 307 million U.S. adults.

Speculations on TechnologyCourses will be delivered via mobile devices:

Public PrivateVery likely 25% 9%Likely 38% 45%Somewhat likely 29% 33%Not likely 7% 13%

Virtual simulations will complement equipment-based labs:

Public PrivateVery likely 33% 36%Likely 49% 32%Somewhat likely 15% 22%Not likely 3% 11%

Collaborative Spaces

Creating collaborative, creative spaces across the campus for students, faculty and staff to gather:

Public Private

High priority 44% 56%

Medium priority 36% 37%

Low priority 19% 7%

BundlingBundling is the notion that students could cobble

together a curriculum that includes courses designed and delivered by a variety of different institutions—including for-profit ones.

Projection

The logic of digital technology will compel institutions to specialize and collaborate, find economies of scale and avoid duplications.

Projection

25 years from now, technology might allow students to learn 24/7…

and go to a college building only once or twice a week.

The Good News

"The socialization of human beings requires them to be in physical contact for at least X number of hours per week."

Futurist Joel Barker

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Increase student engagement

Personalization instruction

Prepares students for world of work

Develop collaboration / teamwork

Develop critical thinking / problem solving

Develop stronger communication skills

Educators Speak Up about Perceived Benefits of Using Mobile Devices for Instruction

Teachers Principals

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Teaching aidesReading, writing, math software

Online curriculumGame-based environments

Real-time dataHigher-order thinking software

Podcasts or videoOnline textbooks

AnimationsSimulationsVirtual labs

Should we prepare our aspiring teachers to use the same technologies being used in the classroom

today or for a future vision?

Teachers Aspiring

iPad• The iPad has the potential to fundamentally change

how students attend college.

• Students hope that devices like the iPad will reduce the number of textbooks needed by students.

• Students also hope the iPad will make other common academic necessities available all in one place—PDF files, PowerPoint presentations, online components like Blackboard.

The Digital TextbookAllow students to do the following:• Personalize the book with electronic highlights

and notes• Take quizzes and tests on their own• Include links to real-time data or the expertise

of an online tutor• Link to PowerPoint presentations of class

lectures• Explore concepts through games or simulations• Watch video clips about topics they are

studying

The Five Shifts1. Age cohorts to individual learners

2. Textbooks to digital content

3. Sequential to adaptive

4. Annual tests to instant feedback

5. Institutions to networks

Old New

Faculty: lecture Faculty: projects

Faculty responsible for content, media, assessment

Faculty work as part of instructional team

Faculty role = actor Faculty role = director

Student role = empty vessel Student role = knowledge creator

Semster/tri-mester/quarter Varying time for learning modules

Set enrollments Continuous

Institutions act independently Institutions act with partners

Degrees based on credit hours Based on competency exams

Information transfer via classrooms Info transfer anytime, anywhere

Libraries: stacks Libraries: Starbucks

Going Green

In the United States alone, buildings account for:

72% of electricity consumption

39% of energy use

38% of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions

40% of raw materials use

30% of waste output

14% of potable water consumption

U.S. Green Building Council

Marketing

2009 consumers spend 34% of their media time online:

• As a result, digital marketing spending has gone from $6.2 billion in 1999 to $25.6 billion or 12% of all marketing spending.

• But marketers still spend most of their energy and dollars on TV, newspapers and radio.

THANK YOU!

George Dehne

President

GDA Integrated Services

george@dehne.com