geoshaft pilot space weather service david rodgers, karen ford and keith ryden, qinetiq,...
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GEOSHAFT Pilot Space Weather Service
David Rodgers, Karen Ford and Keith Ryden, QinetiQ, Farnborough, UK
SW Week 2005: ESTEC, Noordwijk
Internal dielectric charging (IDC) ranks highly among environmental hazards to geostationary satellites.
Aim is to provide space radiation threat information for use in real-time planning and post-event anomaly analysis.
Intended Products:
– Running 24hr averages of >2MeV electron flux
– Charging currents through the shielding around sensitive equipment
– Maximum electric field in sensitive componentsDelivery:
– Hazard levels on html and alerts by e-mail
– User control of alert levels, shielding and material properties
GEOSHAFT Objectives1
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GEOSHAFT User Needs
One external user (New Skies) participated in UR phase
Trial version of service was used to generate UR feedback
Main requirements:• Anomaly diagnostic information
• Short-term forecasting, up to 24-hours
• Clear information delivery
• Easily accessible using common software
• Robust against data errors and outages
• Quality flag
• User customisability
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4GEOSHAFT Service evaluationWeb ‘hits’ ~ 5/day (excluding search engines)
New Skies and Paradigm participated in evaluation
Cost of anomalies
• engineering time dealing with space weather anomalies (of order £20-40k)– New Skies - 1½ months of engineer effort per year for the 5 spacecraft– Paradigm - 3 months of engineer effort per year for fleet
• disruption to service: – New Skies - < 6 or 7 mins not serious, but >10-15 mins a problem
• documentation for insurance (typically 2%/year premium)
Value of existing GEOSHAFT to users (~ zero)
• New Skies – no internal charging anomalies
• Paradigm – mature fleet, no new anomalies, interest in longer-term forecasts for operations
• No value in having European space weather capability per se
• Nevertheless an improved service would have value
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5GEOSHAFT Business planBased on an improved service
Market
• ~ 320 geostationary satellites, ~ 60 systems, 6 multiple European systems
Costs £
Funding models
• Subscription £5k/u/yr
• Public service £77k over 3 years
Comparisons
• NOAA SEC, NASA’s ‘SpaceWeather.com’, IPS in Australia, BAS SatRisk and IRF Lund are non-subscription, also SPENVIS currently.
• Satellite Users Interference Reduction Group ~ $15k/u/yr
Set-up Recur. Data Business Market. Total
In-house 35k 16k 0 .5k /u/yr 12k 99.5k
Hosted 31k 16k 0 .5k /u/yr 6k 101.5k
Joint 33k 10k 0 .25k/u/yr 6k 80.25k
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GEOSHAFT Prospective improvements• Without changes the existing service is too limited
• New requirements– Local time mapping– Multiple satellites visible at once– Easier customisation of shielding, no fields– Automated anomaly comparisons
• Being part of global service makes sense financially and practically for users
• New Data sources– Higher spectral resolution for better internal charging calculations feasible– More GEO monitors would improve predictions and local time mapping– Extension to MEO
• New, sophisticated detectors on GSTB/Galileo • Galileo creates a major new user• Europe could become the principal provider of MEO spacecraft hazard
information.
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