global grain and feed ingredient outlook · global food demand •large population countries and...
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GLOBAL GRAIN AND FEED INGREDIENT OUTLOOK
MARCH 2012
MIKE WOOLVERTON
AGRIMARKETS INTERNATIONAL
mike_woolverton@hotmail.com
Outside Influences • Unrest in Middle East
• European Debt Crisis
• Oil Price/Value of dollar
• Global Economy
US DOLLAR INDEX vs EURO INDEX
ALL WORLD GRAINS, MMT
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012
Supply
Demand
End Stocks
GLOBAL SUPPLY OF MAJOR GRAINS, DAYS, 2012 projected
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
WHEAT SOYBEANS RICE FEEDGRAINS
CORN
WHEAT
SOYBEANS
RICE
FEED GRAINS
CORN
PERCENT OF WORLD PRODUCTION EXPORTED, 2012 projected
0 10 20 30 40
SOYBEANS
SB MEAL
WHEAT
CORN
COARSE GRAIN
RICE
PERCENT
PERCENT
PRICE INDICES, GRAIN AND FEED INGREDIENTS, 2006 TO 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FEED GRAINS
SOYBEANS
SB MEAL
WHEAT
WORLD CORN PRODUCTION, USAGE AND END STOCKS, MMT, 2008-2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
PRODUCTION
USAGE
END STOCKS
Oil and CORN, Monthly Prices Compared, $/brl. and $/bu.
ETHANOL PRICE, US, $/Gal.
CROP AREA PLANTED, US, Mil. A.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CORN
SOYBEANS
WHEAT
WORLD SOYBEANS, MMT, 2006-2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
PRODUCTION
EXPORTS
CHINESE IMPORTS
USAGE
SOYBEAN EXPORTS AND IMPORTERS, PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL, 2012 projected
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EXPORTS IMPORTS
BRAZIL
US
ARGENTINA
CHINA
EU-27
MEXICO
JAPAN
CHINESE SOYBEAN IMPORTS COMPARED, 2005-2006
% of Total
CHINA
EU-27
OTHER
CHINESE SOYBEAN IMPORTS COMPARED, 2011-2012 Projected
% of Total
CHINA
EU-27
OTHER
SOYBEAN PRICE, WEEKLY, $/bu.
WORLD SOYBEAN MEAL, PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS, 2006-2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
PRODUCTION
EXPORTS
EU-27 IMPORTS
SOYBEAN MEAL, Weekly Prices, $/ton
FEED WHEAT MONTHLY PRICE, $/bu.
Factors to Watch Near Term
• South American Crop Harvests
• U.S. Area Planted
• Winter Crop Damage in Eastern Europe and FSU
• Disruptions in Global Trade
Long Term Prospects
• Developed Countries - Slow Growth
• Developing Countries - Moderate Growth
• Growing Demand for Animal Protein
• Demand for Grain and Oilseeds will Pressure Available Supplies – Prices High
• Ag Producers and Processors will Prosper
GOLD, WEEKLY PRICE, $/ton
COPPER PRICE, WEEKLY, $/ton
Global Food Demand • Large population countries and regions are
growing faster than the world average. (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, S.S. Africa, Middle East, etc.)
• Need to Feed:
7 billion people in 2012
8 billion people in 2030
9 billion people in 2050
• Have to produce 30 - 50% more food by 2050
Source: United Nations
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