global inflation
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1
Global inflation
Hans TimmerHans Timmer
GDLN June 4, 2008GDLN June 4, 2008
2
Inflation in high-income countries percentage change, 5-yr moving average, GDP weighted
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: World Bank
3
Inflation in developing countries percentage change, 5-yr moving average, median
0
4
8
12
16
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: World Bank
4
Percentage of developing countries with double-digit inflationpercentage in all developing countries
0
20
40
60
80
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: World Bank
5
Inflation in developing countries percentage change, 5-yr moving average, median
0
4
8
12
16
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
2
4
6
8
Source: World Bank
LMIC median inflation
LMIC real GDP growth (right)
6
Inflation in developing countries percentage change, 5-yr moving average, median
0
4
8
12
16
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
2
4
6
8
Source: World Bank
LMIC median inflation
LMIC real GDP growth (right)
7
Inflation in Asian developing countries
percentage change, 5-yr moving average, median
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: World Bank
8
Percentage of Asian developing countries with double-digit inflationpercentage in all Asian developing countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: World Bank
9
Real GDP growth, 1980 to 2010percentage change
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: World Bank
Developing countries
High-income countries
10
Global IP and metals pricespercentage change, year over year
-10
-5
0
5
10
1991M1 1993M1 1995M1 1997M1 1999M1 2001M1 2003M1 2005M1 2007M1
-75
-25
25
75
Source: World Bank
Global IP
Metal Price (right)
11
Global IP and GDPannual global growth in deviation of period average (%)
-6
-3
0
3
6
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
Source: World Bank
Global IP
Global GDP (right)
12
Metals and oil use Percent of global GDP
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: World bank
Metals
13
Metals and oil use Percent of global GDP
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
Source: World bank
Metals (left)
Oil (right)
14
Commodity price inflation and domestic inflation Percentage change, median of all developing countries
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: World Bank
Commodity price inflation (left axis)
15
Commodity price inflation and domestic inflation Percentage change, median of all developing countries
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: World Bank
Commodity price inflation (left axis)
Domestic inflation (GDP deflator, right axis)
16
0
30
60
90
120
Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07
World crude oil price U.S.$ per barrel
Jun 05-Jan. 07
17
World Oil Production Growth million barrels per day
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
FSU Other OPEC total demand
18
Internationally traded food prices Indices, 2000=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000M1 2002M1 2004M1 2006M1 2008M1
Source: World Bank
Nominal US dollars
Real, i.e. relative to developing countries’ CPI
19
Prices of imported and domestic food percentage change in local currencies since January 2006
0
25
50
75
100
Source: World Bank
Regional price of imported food
Domestic food price
20
Grain Prices index 2005=100
0
100
200
300
2005 2006 2007 2008
Wheat Rice Maize
21
East Asia grain demand (w/China) rolling 5 yr growth rate
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000
Feed
Total consumption
22
India grain & feed demand rolling 5 yr growth rate
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
1970 1980 1990 2000
Feed
Total consumption
23
Rising inflation
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008
CPI, Median developing countries, percent change year-over-year
Source: World Bank, GEM database
24
Global inflation
Hans TimmerHans Timmer
GDLN June 4, 2008GDLN June 4, 2008
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