global pharmaceutical perspective
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Daniel VIALVicepresidente
IMS Europe
Milano - 21 settembre 2007
Global Pharmaceutical Perspective
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20072
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%Total world market
Growth over previous year
Bill
ion
s U
S $
In billions USD1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total World market 334 362 387 427 498 559 601 643
% Constant US $ growth 14.5 11.7 11.8 10.6 10.4 8.0 6.8 7.0
Source: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis International, Feb 2007
% c
on
stan
t U
S $
gro
wth
Global pharmaceutical sales643 billions US$ in 06
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20073
2006: market dynamic is different accordingto the region
Source: IMS Health - Global Pharma Forecasts, March 2007
Size:$ 27.5 bn
% Growth: 12.9%
Size: $ 182 bn
% Growth: 4.8%
Size: $ 57 bn
% Growth: -0.7%
Size: $ 52 bn
% Growth: 9.8%
Size: $ 290 bn
% Growth: 8%
North America
Europe
Japan
Asia/Africa/Australia
Latin America
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20074
* : Constant dollarSource : IMS Health – MIDAS – Retail market
+4%
France
26.3 bn $
+2.3%
Italy
15.3 bn $+0.5%
Germany
28.5 bn $
+ 6.3%
Spain
11.9 bn $
+3.1%
UK
16.3 bn $
+2.6%Top 5 Europe
98.3 bn $
2006: within the region, market dynamic is different according to the country
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20075
Contribution to growthEmerging market contribute to 27% of the total growth
46
29
13
8
4
50
16
27
8
-1
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
US
Europe
Emerging markets
Rest of the world
J apan
% CONTRIBUTION
Source: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis International, Feb 2007
2001+25.5 Billions US $
2006+42.4 Billions US $
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20076
Number of Global BlockbustersFor the first time, “specialist driven” drugs represent half of the blockbusters
Num
ber
of
Blo
ckb
ust
ers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2002 2004 2006
Specialist driven
Primary care driven
25%
75%
44
105
49%
51%
Source: IMS Health, MIDAS, MAT Dec 2006, Market Insights Team research
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20077
Protection status in 5 key markets
Source: IMS Health, MIDAS, New Market Segmentation, RX only, MAT Dec 2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total 5markets
US Italy France Germany UK
% M
ark
et
Sh
are
US
$
In-Patent Off-Patent Generics Other
14
-22
12
11
15
-28
17
14
9
6
4
-9
-15
16
7
10
11
-22
-2
11
13
-20
12
7
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20078
Italian retail market: reimbursable drugs Since the 2nd semester 06, a regular decrease of the growth for the units and a negative growth in value*
- 10,0
- 5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
1H20
06
2H20
06
1H20
07
% g
row
th
% vs previous (Units) % vs. previous (Values)
-9%
- 3.4%
2.7%4.7%
5.9%
10.3%
*: in public price
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 20079
Italian retail market: reimbursable drugsIn units, the reimbursable market is becoming flat
Units
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 200710
Italian retail market: reimbursable drugsIn value*, the reimbursable market is declining
In €
*: in public priceTop 5 Europe: + 2% (1st 07 vs 1st 06)
-9%
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 200711
Italian pharma R&D Growth of pharma R&D investment is higher than the restof the industry during the last 6 years
R&D investment - in million €
+ 18.9%
+ 24.7%
8,4
8,6
8,8
9
9,2
9,4
9,6
9,8
10
10,2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
% of pharma investment on total industry
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 200712
Italian pharma R&D% of workers in the R&D
Rate of workers in pharma R&D is much more higher than in the industry
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pharma Total Industry
In % of total employees
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 200713
Source : IMS Health – R&D Focus
R&D : drugs in active development
Belgium: 401 - Poland : 155
1659
Germany
750
Italy
1217
France
2871
UK
465
Spain
Il Futuro Dell'Industria Farmaceutica - 21 settembre 200714
• Italy will be the 6th country in term of drugs’ consumption (in value)
• China will be the 7st country in term of drugs’ consumption (in value)
• Turkey, South Korea and India will be closed to Top 10
Source: IMS Health -IMS Market Prognosis 2002-2010
1 USA
2 JAPON
3 ALLEMAGNE
4 FRANCE
5 ITALIE
6 UK
7 ESPAGNE
8 CANADA
9 BRESIL
10 CHINE
1 USA
2 JAPON
3 FRANCE
4 ALLEMAGNE
5 UK
6 ITALIE
7 CHINE
8 CANADA
9 ESPAGNE
10 BRESIL
10 countries:
+80% of drugs’ consumption
(in value)
Top 10 market rankings to 2010 China just behind the old Europe
2002 2010
Daniel VIAL
Vicepresidente
IMS Europedvial@fr.imshealth.com
Thank you very much for your attention ….
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