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Global Presentation 25/11/2005 1
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 2
EPIA and its membersTop 10 worldwide – 9 EPIA members
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 3
EPIA and its membersEPIA members 83% of announced world cell and module production in 2005
Source: EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 4
EPIA has 3 objectives:1. To become the most credible reference point for the most credible reference point for
the European PV Industry stakeholdersthe European PV Industry stakeholders. EPIA will provide accurate information, statistics and feedback to both its members and the wider audience.
2. To help shape the development of new PV marketsthe development of new PV markets both in Europe and export community. 3. To take the lead in positioning the photovoltaic the lead in positioning the photovoltaic industryindustry within the European political environment and supporting the member state association in their local objectives.
Objectives
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Yea
rly
Inst
alle
d M
Wp
DE EU without DESource: IEA PVPS
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 6
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sh
ipm
en
ts in
MW
p
Germany Spain Italy Switzerland
Portugal Greece France Rest of Europe
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sh
ipm
en
ts in
MW
p
Germany Spain Italy Switzerland
Portugal Greece France Rest of Europe
Market growth strategyMarket growth strategy
Europe until 2010Europe until 2010
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 7
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Sh
ipm
en
ts in
MW
p
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
ROW
USA
Germany
Japan
Source: (1998-2003) PV News & Strategies Unlimited; (2004) Solarbuzz
1.1. Market development Market development Historical Market Growth by Region (MW)
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Sh
ipm
en
ts in
MW
p
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ROW
USA
Germany
Japan
Source: EPIA World Market Analysis
1.1. Market development Market development and Future and Future Market Growth by Region (MW)
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Ma
rke
t S
ize
in M
Wp
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid
18 % p.a.
63 % p.a.40 % p.a.40 % p.a.
1.1. Market development Market development World PV Market Size andApplication Segmentation
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 10
30 % p.a.
25 % p.a.
10 Mrd€(20 Mrd€)
80 Mrd€(160 Mrd€)
250 Mrd€(500 Mrd€)
1. Market development PV market increase and necessary investments in production equipment
300 GW/Year@ 2030
Production equipment investment [€/W]
1,5 ... 2 1 ... 1,5 0,7 ... 1
Investments per year [bio€]
0,5 ... 1
2 ... 6
10 ... 30
Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 11
1. Market development
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 12
Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH
Photovoltaics
Utility peak power
Bulk power 0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
€/kWh
900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh
1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh
2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 13
24h-Energy Profile
0:00
6:00
12:0
0
18:0
0
24:0
0
Ele
ctr
ica
l En
erg
y [
arb
. un
its
]
Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff
Electricity supplied by Utility
Fed-InEnergy
Solar Energy
Energy consumption of building
Electricity supplied by Utility
2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Correlation between Daily PV Power Production and Energy Consumption of an Office Building in Spain
Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 14
Spot market price
PV power output
Source:
2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Spot Market Prices in Correlation with PV Electricity Generation in Germany
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 15
2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Regional PV-Generation per installed kWp
Source: European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 16
Source: European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre
2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Price of solar electricity for individual user of a small PV system (<5 kWp)
• system costs: 6 eur/Wp• capital investment payback time: 20 years• interest rate: 4%• inflation: 2%• yearly maintenance costs 1% of the investment• mounting at an optimum angle
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 17
Source:
2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Price Experience Curve for PV Modules
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000
MWp accumulated
€/W
p M
od
ulp
reis
0,1
1
10
1 10 100 1000 10000
GWp accumulated
€/W
p M
od
ule
Pri
ce
500 MWp/a2002
3500 MWp/a2010
33 GWp/a2020
300 GWp/a2030
Experiencefactor
15%
18%
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 18
Source: Solarbuzz
2.2. CompetitivenessCompetitiveness Solar Module Market Prices
4.50
4.70
4.90
5.10
5.30
5.50
5.70
5.90
6.10
6.30
6.50
USA in US$/Wp
Europe in Euro €/Wp
Silicon Shortage!
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 19
3.3. Technology evolutionTechnology evolution National and EU Commission R&D budgets for PV from 1998 to 2004
Source: Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, PVPS, Sept. 1999 to 20051 EU includes AUT, DEU, DNK, FRA, GBR, ITA, NLD, PRT, SWE2 EU plus NOR and CHE
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
EU¹ (R&D)Europe² (R&D)DEU (R&D)JPN/METI (R&D)USA (R&D)USD to EUR Fluctuation (Base 50 MUSD=46.90 MEUR in 1998)EU Commission (R&D)
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 20
0 5 10 15 20 25
0
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 25
0
1
2
3
2020+
2010+
Module Efficiency [%]
2000+c-Si
TF
a-Si-pin/pin
a-Si/µc-Si
II-VI
dye a-Si-pinII-VI
r
r
mc
mc
Cz
Cz
Mod
ule
Pric
e / W
p [r
el.
units
]
3.3. Technology evolutionTechnology evolution
Source: @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 21
4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsGeneral considerations for a future technology
• double digit and stable growth
• high volume → economy of scale
• competitive profit making to the industry sectors
• global industry
PV solar electricity is a high potential candidate !
Need for local industry-political actions
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 22
4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsInfluence of Feed-in tariff on an annual PV installation in Germany (MW)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
New Feed-in LawNew Feed-in Law
Source: @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH and EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005
Feed-in Law
Feed-in Law
100,000-Rooftopprogram KfW
100,000-Rooftopprogram KfW
1,000-Rooftopprogram
(2.500x3kW)
1,000-Rooftopprogram
(2.500x3kW)
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 23
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Others
Belgium
Denmark
Portugal
Finland
Sweden
Greece
Great Britain
Austria
France
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Italy
Spain
Holland
Germany
On-grid
Off-grid
4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsTotal installed capacity in Europe in 2004 (MWp)
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 24
4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsGermany vs Rest of Europe in 2004 (MWp)
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 25
Advantages :• Focus of customers will be on product quality and
performance of the systems for a long period of time • Investors confidence secured (attractive
rate of return for investors)• Does not a burden on public funds • No Bureacratic constraints• Appropriate Tool to stimulate Industrial Investment
4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsThe most effective support programme
Feed-in tariff Feed-in tariff
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 26
4.4. Support ProgramsSupport ProgramsMarket Potential until 2010 (2015)assuming a quick Introduction of anEU-wide Feed-in Tariff System
Source: @ RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH and EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005
Global Presentation 25/11/2005 27
GPSC – invited PV Industry Associations and next steps
SEIA - The Solar Energy Industries Association
CanSIA -Canadian Solar Industries Association
EPIA – European Photovoltaic Industry Association
TPIA - Taiwan PV Industry Association
BCSE - Australian Business Council for Sustainable Energy
JPEA – The Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association
Creia- Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association
NZPVA - New Zealand Photovoltaic Association
KPDO - Korean Photovoltaics Development Organization
GPSC06 June 200506 June 2005 Barcelona
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