global trends in online learning the big picture, threats , opportunities and change

Global Trends in Online Learning the Big Picture, Threats, Opportunities and Change

Next Generation Learning Conference 2014Dalarna, 20 March 2014

Gard TitlestadSecretary General

International Council For Open and Distance Education, ICDE

• The leading global membership organization for open, distance and online education

• An NGO official partner of UNESCO, and shares that agency’s key aim – the attainment of quality education for all

• ICDE believes that in pursuing education as a universal right, the needs of the learner must be central.

• Members in all regions of the world

25 Years SupportFrom Norway

What do we want to achieve?Re-imaging Higher Education: Taking a Broader View of Diversity

Professor Ellen HazelkornVice President of Research and Enterprise, and Dean of the Graduate

Research SchoolHigher Education Policy Research Unit (HEPRU)

Dublin Institute of Technology5th Global Meeting of Associations (GMA V), Manchester, April 2013

A World-Class Higher Education System

• Coherent portfolio of horizontally diverse and distinctive high performing, complementary and actively engaged institutions:

• Providing a breadth of educational, research and student experiences which offer the widest chance to the broadest number of students; ;

• Working collaboratively to maximize capacity beyond individual institutional capability.

• Developing knowledge and skills that citizens need to contribute to society throughout their lives, while attracting international talent;

• Graduates able to succeed in the labour market, fuel and sustain personal, social and economic development, and underpin civil society;

• Operating successfully in the global market, international in perspective and responsive to change.

Professor Ellen Hazelkorn

From Elite to Universal Participation

Elite0-15%

Mass16-50%

Universal Over 50%

Functions of higher education

Shaping mind and character of ruling class; preparation for elite roles

Transmission of skills; preparation for broader range of technical elite roles

Adaptation of "whole population" to rapid social and technological change

Curriculum and forms of instruction

Highly structured in terms of academic conceptions of knowledge

Modular, flexible and semi-structured sequence of courses

Boundaries and sequences break down; distinctions between learning and life break down

Institutional characteristics

Homogeneous with high and common standards; small residential communities; clear and impermeable boundaries

Comprehensive with more diverse standards; "cities of intellect" – mixed residential & commuting; boundaries fuzzy and permeable.

Great diversity with no common model; aggregates of people enrolled but...many rarely on campus; boundaries weak or non-existent.

Research and knowledge transfer

Pursuit of understanding of fundamental principles focused on "pure disciplines" and arising from curiosity, with no (direct or immediate) commercial benefits.

Pursuit of understanding of principles in order to solve practical problems of the modern world, rather than to acquire knowledge for knowledge’s sake.

Research is democratised, co-produced with and responsive to wider society, with an emphasis on impact and benefit.

(Hazelkorn, 2011 – Adapted from Brennan, 2004 and Trow, 1973, 1974, 2006; Gibbons et al, 1994)

The BIG picture

The BIG Picture• Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over

the world

IndiaSweden

Russia

South America

The US

AfricaAustralia

China

The BIG picture

• The growth in higher education is massive

20442030

320

4002007 - 2030

Mill. students

EU/OECD projections the need for HEby 2030: 400 mill.

The BIG picture

• The changes in higher education is dramatic

The BIG picture• MOOC took the world (?) with storm, peaked, and opened up

for massive innovation in education

Coursera ”Learning Hubs”

Where?

Numbers per March 2014

http://openeducationeuropa.eu/en/european_scoreboard_moocs

Numbers per March2014

2013 (ECAR)

Who take MOOC ? 2013 (ECAR)

Paul Stacey, Associate Director of Global Learning, Creative Commons, Oktober 2013

MOOC or MOC

• ”LORD knows there’s a lot of bad news in the world today to get you down, but there is one big thing happening that leaves me incredibly hopeful about the future, and that is the budding revolution in global online higher education. Nothing has more potential to lift more people out of poverty — by providing them an affordable education to get a job or improve in the job they have. Nothing has more potential to unlock a billion more brains to solve the world’s biggest problems.”

Thomas Friedman, columnist and author

Karl AbererPierre Dillenbourg

http://moocs.epfl.ch/eu-mooc-summit

Mind to MOOCsOverview, reflections and brainstorming in whitening water

Think tank 20 October 2013, Open Universitty of China, Beijing, China

To be reported to the ICDE Standing Conference of Presidents meeting and Policy Forum

Excerpts from ICDE Mind to MOOCs reportA few of the issues and recommendations Equity. • Consider this initiative as an opportunity to rethink our role as universities and take

up MOOCs. . • Integrate open MOOCs in our respective institutions• National, regional and transnational cooperation is a great opportunity in developing

MOOC and MOOC-alike concepts. Diversity. • Undertake contextualized strategies when implementing MOOCs • Be aware of cultural and language aspects → anglo-centric core, colonialism • OER and OCW as the basis for MOOC will ease contextual, cultural and language

adaptationInnovation and Quality. • Improve and innovate on pedagogical aspects: methodologies, content formats,

assessment. • Provide learning analytics as a tool for improving the courses. Connect the learning

process and research for new knowledge and improvements.• Promote research about MOOCs. • Keep moving towards quality. Beyond quantity of MOOCs and users, the focus on

quality is essential for sustainability.

The BIG picture• Online, Distance (ODL) and on Campus Learning are

converging => Blended

BlendedODLCampus

• And as a result – an even more diverse higher education landscape……

The BIG picture

• Three streams work in parallel:

– Online becomes mature – and Internet/mobile: freedom from distance, mobile broadband: freedom from location

– New methodologies, content and pedagogy – new opportunities for student supportive teaching

– New knowledge about the brain and learning, new knowledge in neurosciences

• Big science lights the way to an understanding of how the world's most complex machine gives rise to our thoughts and emotions

The BIG picture• We are in the beginning (of the beginning) – example: mobile

technology

We are in the beginning of the beginning

State of Broadband Report 2013 www.broadbandcommission.org

African Undersea Cables

nov. 2013

http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/

We are in the beginning of the

beginning

The Governments moves…..

Ref. Yang Zhijian, president Open University of China, ICDE world Conference, Tianjin, China October 2013

The Governments moves…..

http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/kd/dep/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/utvalg-om-hoyere-utdanningstilbud-pa-net.html?id=732679

• The Norwegian MOOC Commission was appointed by Royal Decree on 21 June 2013.

• One subreport delivered by 13 December 2013.

• Final report, green paper, expected in June 2014.

• A white paper on structures and financial regulations foreseen in 2015.

Wide definition

http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/kd/dep/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/utvalg-om-hoyere-utdanningstilbud-pa-net.html?id=732679

The Commission’s recommendations

• Ch. 6.2 Innovative education science and quality development– research-based knowledge, learning analytics– Incentives– skills for faculty and staff– assess skills developed through MOOCs without exams and credits

• Ch. 6.3 Infrastructure for MOOCs and other digital learning• Ch. 6.4 Skills needed by business and the labour market• Ch. 6.5 MOOCs as part of the Norwegian degree system:

accreditation and recognition of MOOCs• Ch. 6.6 Student fees and the free principle in higher education• Ch. 6.7 Educational support• Ch. 6.8 Financing higher educationhttp://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/kd/dep/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/utvalg-om-hoyere-utdanningstilbud-pa-net.html?id=732679

The CONCRETE example

January 2014

The BIG trends

Openknowledge

Societal needs

Technology

Students needs and

expectations

OERCost

Trends, within the framwork of globalisation and internationalisation

HE needs – 1 U a week

Demographics

Globalisation

Enabling economic growth

Access

Open Access

eInfrrastructureseScience

Automation

Robots Sensors

2020 – 80% connectedInternet of things Open Research

Open Data

Open Innovation

US quadruppling

Southern Europe….

Developing economies

ICT Habitus

Flexibility

Employability

Lifelong

Disruptive Innovations

The BIG change?

Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment

37% of Danish jobs classified with high probability for being phased out

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

The future of jobs; The onrushing wave

Technology and jobs; Coming to an office near youhttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready

http://www.kraka.org/artikler/computere_og_udskiftning_af_jobfunktioner

http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/rifbriefs/22.htm

The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?About 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk.http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314

The BIGGER opportunities

”For the first time in human history we have the tools to enable everyone to attain all the education they desire.”

(Wiley, Green, & Soares, 2012)

Dramatically bringing down the cost of education with OER: How open education resources unlock the door to free

learning.

From the UNESCO OER Declaration

• Foster awareness and use of OER• Encourage the development and adaptation of

OER in a variety of languages and cultural contexts• Encourage the open licensing of educational

materials produced with public funds.ICDE work shouder to shoulder with UNESCO and other stakeholders to have this implementet

OER and Open and Distance Learning can increase the impact of

investments in knowledge

OER &ODL

Open Access – open scienceResearch based OERResearch based teaching

Innovation in education – open innovationInnovate the learning system – flip the classroomKnowledge supply for innovation

High quality educationResearch based educationResource based educationOpen education

The next years

• Open, distance, online and eLearning – enables:

• Equal, easy and affordable access• Quality Higher education• Better learning outcome• Student success

• And the threats? The other way around…..

The small TEXT

MOOC in an international perspective: New global agenda for innovation

in higher education • 1) Government should provide a holistic, favourable framework for open and online

learning and in line with the values of UNESCO. Incentives should be established for wanted direction. Dialogue with stakeholders, in particular HEI. Specific goals to be set. OER in line with the UNESCO declaration a part of the framework.

• 2) Support and facilitation of Leadership for change to a more open and online education. Competencies to be build.

• 3) Incentives and support for faculty and teachers change processes, competencies and working environment to achieve a more open and online education.

• 4) Framework and methodologies that put the learner in the centre. • 5) Cooperation across institutions, and countries on content and platforms for a more

open and online education, hereunder MOOC. • 6) Interoperability between solutions.• 7) Common global outlook, statistics and understanding of fundamental concepts• 8) Concrete goals and plans for research and innovation within the field, well anchored

at the institutions concerned..

Dr Qian Tang, Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO (8/11/2013).It is necessary to repeat the confirmation of fundamental principles:

• Education is– A fundamental human rights– A public good– A basis for man's attainment of peace, sustainable development, gender

equality and responsible global citizenship– A key factor in reducing inequality and poverty.

• And further: Imperative for Education for post 2015 agenda must be:– Equitable access to education for all and at all levels– Quality of education and learning– Fairness– Gender equality– Lifelong learning

Thank you!titlestad@icde.org

www.icde.org