global urban sanitation system hotspots: mass markets for disruptive onsite wastewater treatment
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Global urban sanitation system hotspots: massmarkets for disruptive onsite wastewater treatment
technologies? An European perspective
Eckhard Störmer, Christian Binz, Bernhard Truffer
Eawag (CH) and Z_punkt (D)
The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
ToC– problem sketch: limitations of the
dominant design for the new markets– the FTA approach: Technology
Roadmapping for disruptive technologies– the results
• mass markets• new technologies• market actors and new business concepts
– conclusions
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Problem sketch
Limitations of the successful sanitation solution of the OECD countries
• high amount of water needed• high investment costs• low flexibility for growing or shrinking settlements
cMass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Problem sketchi.e. a radical shift in the paradigms of urban water management systemsHow can a mass market for onsite wastewater treatment be developed?
Bel.
Cyp.
Yemen
Oman Saudi Arabia U. A. E.
Qatar
Iran Iraq Syria
Jordan Israel
Leb. China
Mongolia
Afghanistan
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka Maldives
Nepal Bhu.
Myanmar (Burma) Bang.
Andaman Islands (India)
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Brunei
Philippines
Taiwan
Cambodia
Vietnam
Laos
Papua New Guinea
New Zealand
Fiji New Caledonia
Solomon Islands
Kiribati
Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia
Guam (USA)
Japan
N. Korea
S. Korea
Kuril Islands
Wrangel Island
Aleutian Islands (USA)
New Siberian Islands
Severnaya Zemlya
Novaya Zemlya
Franz Josef Land Svalbard (Nor.)
Jan Mayen (Nor.) Banks Island
Victoria Island Baffin Island
Ellesmere Island
Island of Newfoundland
Kuwait Canary Islands (Sp.)
Sao Tome & Principe
Singapore Eq. Guinea
Faroe Is. (Den.)
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Ukraine Moldova
Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan
Yugo.
Mac.
Slov. Cro.
Bos.
Slovak.
Eritrea
Tajikistan
Galapagos Islands (Ecuador)
Mauritius
Seychelles
60°
Leb.
1. Where are potential mass markets?• low sewer connection rates today• high city growth• water scarcity
2. What solutions are feasible?• various technical concepts with source separation and recycling• incl. organizational concepts
3. Who are the relevant industry partners?• Role and opportunities of
• European small WWTP producers• transnational water industry • further related industry
Inte
rna
tio
nal
ity
(ma
rket
ou
tre
ach
)
core competence (increasing technological complexity)
Global
Europe
only Germany
ponds septic tanks, pumps, other components
wastewater treatment solutions water recycling systems
group 1
group 2
group 3
4. How can you get there?• R&D on technical components• strategies on going international • awareness building of experts and users
Hot
spo
t-A
naly
sis
Opt
ion
Va
riatio
n-A
naly
sis
Act
or-
Ana
lysi
sT
echn
olog
y-R
oadm
appi
ng
FTA approach: Innovation System Analysis with Technology Roadmapping
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Results1: potential mass markets
South Atlantic Ocean South Pacific Ocean
North Pacific Ocean
North Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean
North Pacific Ocean
United States of America
U.S.A.
Canada
Mexico
Brazil
U. S. A.
French Polynesia (Fr.)
Argentina Uruguay
Paraguay
Chile
Bolivia
Peru
Ecuador
Colombia
Venezuela French Guiana (Fr.)
Suriname Guyana
The Bahamas
Cuba Dominican Republic
Panama Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Honduras Guatemala El Salvador
Trinidad and Tobago
Jam. Haiti Puerto Rico (US)
Greenland (Den.)
Iceland
Madagascar
South Africa Lesotho
Swaziland
Mozambique
Tanzania
Botswana Namibia Zimbabwe
Angola
Zaire
Zambia
Malawi
Burundi
Kenya Rwanda
Uganda
Congo
Gabon
Somalia
Ethiopia
Sudan
Djibouti
Belize
Egypt Libya
Chad
Niger
Algeria
Mali
Tunisia
Nigeria
Cameroon C. A. R.
Benin
Togo Ghana
Burkina Faso Barbados
Dominica
Côte D’Ivoire
Liberia
Sierra Leone
Guinea Guinea-Bissau
Senegal The Gambia
Mauritania
Western Sahara (Mor.)
Morocco
Finland Norway
Sweden Estonia Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Bulgaria
Turkey Greece
Czech.
Hung.
Italy Albania
Portugal
France
Spain
Aus. Switz.
United Kingdom
Ireland Den.
Germany Neth. Bel.
Cyp.
Yemen
Oman Saudi Arabia U. A. E.
Qatar
Iran Iraq Syria
Jordan Israel
Leb. China
Mongolia
Russia
Afghanistan
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka Maldives
Nepal Bhu.
Myanmar (Burma) Bang.
Andaman Islands (India)
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Brunei
Philippines
Taiwan
Cambodia
Vietnam
Laos
Australia
Papua New Guinea
New Zealand
Fiji New Caledonia
Solomon Islands
Kiribati
Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia
Guam (USA)
Japan
N. Korea
S. Korea
Kuril Islands
Wrangel Island
Aleutian Islands (USA)
New Siberian Islands
Severnaya Zemlya
Novaya Zemlya
Franz Josef Land Svalbard (Nor.)
Jan Mayen (Nor.) Banks Island
Victoria Island Baffin Island
Ellesmere Island
Island of Newfoundland
Kuwait Canary Islands (Sp.)
Sao Tome & Principe
Singapore Eq. Guinea
Faroe Is. (Den.)
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Ukraine Moldova
Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan
Yugo.
Mac.
Slov. Cro.
Bos.
Slovak.
Eritrea
Tajikistan
Hawaiian Islands
Galapagos Islands (Ecuador)
Mauritius
Seychelles
60°
No Name Growth EutrophicationWater scarcityFloods Earthquakes Sewerage connectionA Eutrophication in industrialized countriesA-I Huge eutrophication 0 ++ 0 + 0 --A-II Huge eutrophication and water scarcity 0 ++ + + 0 --A-III Huge eutrophication, water scarcity and earthquakes 0 ++ + 0 + --B Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerageB Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerage -- 0 0 + 0 -C Developing countries with medium to high sewerage coverageC-I Eutrophication, vulnerability and urban growth (no water scarcity) + + 0 0 + 0C-II Water scarcity, scattered fast frowing cities and vulnerability (no eutrophication) + 0 + 0 + 0C-III Vulnerability, water scarcity and eutrophication (no fast city growth) 0 + + 0 ++ 0C-IV Strong water scarcity, fast growing cities and eutrophication (no vulnerability) + + ++ 0 0 0D Developing countries with poor sewerage connection rates and urban growthD-I Poor, but fast growing cities (with water scarcity) ++ + + + 0 ++D-II High water scarcity and fast growing cities + 0 ++ 0 + +D-III Dynamically developing regions with many infrastructure challenges ++ + + ++ ++ +
Key driver
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Results1: focus on „entry“ markets
Bel.
Cyp.
Yemen
Oman Saudi Arabia U. A. E.
Qatar
Iran Iraq Syria
Jordan Israel
Leb. China
Mongolia
Russia
Afghanistan
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka Maldives
Nepal Bhu.
Myanmar (Burma) Bang.
Andaman Islands (India)
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Brunei
Philippines
Taiwan
Cambodia
Vietnam
Laos
Australia
Papua New Guinea
New Zealand
Fiji New Caledonia
Solomon Islands
Kiribati
Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia
Guam (USA)
Japan
N. Korea
S. Korea
Kuril Islands
Wrangel Island
Aleutian Islands (USA)
New Siberian Islands
Severnaya Zemlya
Novaya Zemlya
Franz Josef Land Svalbard (Nor.)
Jan Mayen (Nor.) Banks Island
Victoria Island Baffin Island
Ellesmere Island
Island of Newfoundland
Kuwait Canary Islands (Sp.)
Sao Tome & Principe
Singapore Eq. Guinea
Faroe Is. (Den.)
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Ukraine Moldova
Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan
Yugo.
Mac.
Slov. Cro.
Bos.
Slovak.
Eritrea
Tajikistan
Hawaiian Islands
Galapagos Islands (Ecuador)
Mauritius
Seychelles
60°
No Name Growth EutrophicationWater scarcityFloods Earthquakes Sewerage connectionA Eutrophication in industrialized countriesA-I Huge eutrophication 0 ++ 0 + 0 --A-II Huge eutrophication and water scarcity 0 ++ + + 0 --A-III Huge eutrophication, water scarcity and earthquakes 0 ++ + 0 + --B Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerageB Shrinking population in regions with well established centralized sewerage -- 0 0 + 0 -C Developing countries with medium to high sewerage coverageC-I Eutrophication, vulnerability and urban growth (no water scarcity) + + 0 0 + 0C-II Water scarcity, scattered fast frowing cities and vulnerability (no eutrophication) + 0 + 0 + 0C-III Vulnerability, water scarcity and eutrophication (no fast city growth) 0 + + 0 ++ 0C-IV Strong water scarcity, fast growing cities and eutrophication (no vulnerability) + + ++ 0 0 0D Developing countries with poor sewerage connection rates and urban growthD-I Poor, but fast growing cities (with water scarcity) ++ + + + 0 ++D-II High water scarcity and fast growing cities + 0 ++ 0 + +D-III Dynamically developing regions with many infrastructure challenges ++ + + ++ ++ +
Water scarcity
City growth
Mediumto lowsewerage
Leb.
Regions with water scarcity andfast growing cities no “poor” countries
Technological challengeswater saving systems
new dwellings, huge appartment blocksno low cost solutions
Examples for entrymarkets 2020:
Warum dieses Marktsegment?• ‚fairer‘ Wettbewerb mit zentral• Schwellenländer mit Dynamik• Neue Märkte für Sie• Wassersparen als Kerntreiber• Denken in neuer Gebäude- kategorie
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Single family houseSmall appartment house
Large appartmenthouse
Hotel„No-frills“ or water intensive
Office building
Australia Post Headquarter (with decent bw recycling)Source: http://www.triqua.eu/triqua/fs3_site.nsf/htmlViewDocuments/69A6881A6987EE4AC12573D0003E86E2
Results1: entry market segments
2nd step 2nd step
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Inte
rnat
ion
alit
y(m
arke
to
utr
each
)
core competence (increasing technological complexity)
Global
Europe
only Germany
ponds septic tanks, pumps, other components
wastewater treatment solutions water recycling systems
group 1
group 2
group 3
Results2: actor setting
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Core ideaOST 1water saving without loss of comfort
OST 2Production of recycling water for irrigation
OST 3very low net water demand by high recycling ratio
Net water consumption (L/p/d) 30-80 30-80 < 30
Water saving devices state of the art water saving devices
state of the art water saving devices
cutting edge water saving devices
Number of wastewater piping system 1 2 separate piping systems for black- and greywater
2 separate piping systems for black- and greywater
Treatment reactors one combined wastewater treatment reactor with high effluent quality
•Blackwater reactor: anaerobia MBR•Greywater reactor
•Blackwater reactor: anaerobia MBR•Greywater reactor•water recycling at source (shower)•Point of use drinking water treatment
Type of water reuse inhouse toilet flushing inhouse toilet flushing, external irrigation of agricultural areas
Reuse inhouse in drinking water quality for washing-machine, shower and toilet
Energy recovery None, optionally with heat Primary plus heat Primary plus heat
Management system central control of operation with remote control, maintenance on demand
Contracting of water treatment services. Remote control of operation and maintenance on demand
Property management cares for inhouse water infrastructure accompanied by specialized water technology service
Results3: technology variants of next generation
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
OST 1 OST 2 OST 3
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
• Business services are important add on
Water saving technology
common development needs
Enhancement in water desinfection
Development in sensor technologies and remote control
Managementsystems• o&m concepts • finance and ownership concepts remote control and maintenance
Businessmodel – Contracting
caretaker principle
Energy recyclingHeat recovery
Anaerobial MBR + biogas production
1 liter toilet
Recycling shower (Point of Use-Recycling)
Membran technique
UV-treatment
chemical additives
Basics for theoperation ofOST fleets
Basics forwater recyclingwith OST
additional„features“
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies
Conclusions– The next generation of OST seems to be far
away, but first steps are already taken– Technologies are nice, but do not work without
service concepts – Shift in the self-conception of producers is needed
– New mass markets seem to be too risky for German producers – they risk to loose their international dominance
– Technology Roadmapping with additional Innovation System Analysis has the potential to uncover the logic of a system change
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