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Globalization and Firms:The Challenge for Theory

J. Peter Neary

University of Oxford and CEPR

Chaire Theorie Economique et Organisation SocialeCollege de France, Paris

March 6, 2013

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 1 / 39

Introduction

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional Form

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 2 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Growing empirical evidence: large firms matter for trade

1st wave of micro data (1995-): Exporting firms are exceptional:

Larger, more productive

2nd wave: Even within exporters, large firms dominate:

Distribution of exporters is bimodalThe firms that matter (for most questions) are different: larger,multi-product, multi-destination

[Bernard et al. (JEP 2007), Mayer and Ottaviano (2007)]

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 3 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Growing empirical evidence: large firms matter for trade

1st wave of micro data (1995-): Exporting firms are exceptional:

Larger, more productive

2nd wave: Even within exporters, large firms dominate:

Distribution of exporters is bimodalThe firms that matter (for most questions) are different: larger,multi-product, multi-destination

[Bernard et al. (JEP 2007), Mayer and Ottaviano (2007)]

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 3 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Growing empirical evidence: large firms matter for trade

1st wave of micro data (1995-): Exporting firms are exceptional:

Larger, more productive

2nd wave: Even within exporters, large firms dominate:

Distribution of exporters is bimodalThe firms that matter (for most questions) are different: larger,multi-product, multi-destination

[Bernard et al. (JEP 2007), Mayer and Ottaviano (2007)]

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 3 / 39

Introduction

U.S. Evidence

Bernard et al. (JEP 2007):• Data on U.S. exporting firms 2000• By # of products & export destinationsBy # of products & export destinations

8Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 4 / 39

Introduction

U.S. Evidence

Bernard et al. (JEP 2007):• Data on U.S. exporting firms 2000• By # of products & export destinations

5+ products:

By # of products & export destinations

25 9% f fi25.9% of firms

7Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 5 / 39

Introduction

U.S. Evidence

Bernard et al. (JEP 2007):• Data on U.S. exporting firms 2000• By # of products & export destinations

5+ products:

By # of products & export destinations

25 9% f fi25.9% of firms

98.0% of export value

6Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 6 / 39

Introduction

U.S. Evidence

Bernard et al. (JEP 2007):• Data on U.S. exporting firms 2000• By # of products & export destinations

5+ products:

By # of products & export destinations

25 9% f fi25.9% of firms

98.0% of export value

83.3% of employment

5Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 7 / 39

Introduction

U.S. Evidence

Bernard et al. (JEP 2007):• Data on U.S. exporting firms 2000• By # of products & export destinations

5+ products:

By # of products & export destinations

25 9% f fi& 5+ dests.:

25.9% of firms

11.9% of firms

98.0% of export value

92.2% of export value

83.3% of employment

68.8% of employment

4Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 8 / 39

Introduction

U.S. Evidence

Bernard et al. (JEP 2007):• Data on U.S. exporting firms 2000• By # of products & export destinations1 product

5+ products:

By # of products & export destinations

25 9% f fi

40.4% of firms

1 product, 1 destination only:

& 5+ dests.:25.9% of firms

11.9% of firms

98.0% of export value

0.20% of export value

7.0% of employment

92.2% of export value

83.3% of employment

68.8% of employment

4Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 9 / 39

Introduction

Similarly in France

what I call the ‘second wave’ of micro data on firms and trade. The first wave,

from the mid-1990s onwards, showed that exporting firms are exceptional,

larger and more productive than average. More recent datasets in the second

wave have provided more disaggregated information on the activities of firms,

and have highlighted the degree of heterogeneity even within exporters.

Table 1 summarises some aspects of the distribution of manufacturing

exports for the US and France, adapted from Bernard et al. (2007) and Mayer

and Ottaviano (2007). Looking at the breakdowns by number of products sold

and number of foreign markets served, two features stand out. First is that

the distribution of firms is bimodal, with 40.4 per cent of US firms (29.6 per

cent of French firms) exporting only one product to only one market, while

11.9 per cent (23.3 per cent) export five or more products to five or more

markets. Second, the latter firms account for by far the bulk of the value of

exports, 92.2 per cent (87.3 per cent), so the distribution of export sales is

highly concentrated in the top exporters. If we ignore the number of destina-

tions and simply focus on the firms that export five or more products, we

find that they account for 25.9 per cent of US firms (34.3 per cent of French

firms) but an overwhelming 98.0 per cent (90.8 per cent) of exports. Bearing

in mind that non-exporting firms are excluded, these data suggest that the

largest exporting firms are different in kind from the majority. I am not the

first to draw attention to these features of the data. In particular, the work of

Xavier Gabaix (2005) on ‘granularity’, recently extended to international trade

by di Giovanni and Levchenko (2009), has also highlighted the importance of

large firms for aggregate behaviour. However, in their formal modelling those

authors stick with the assumption of monopolistic competition between firms.

They allow for large firms in one sense by assuming that the distribution of

firm productivities is Pareto with a high value for the dispersion parameter,

but nevertheless they continue to assume that all firms are infinitesimal in

scale. I want to go further: to try and put the grains into granularity.

TABLE 1Distribution of Manufacturing Exports by Number of Products and Markets

Number of US 2000 France 2003

Products Markets

% Share ofExportingFirms

% Share ofValue ofExports

% Share ofExportingFirms

% Shareof Valueof Exports

1 1 40.4 0.2 29.6 0.75+ 5+ 11.9 92.2 23.3 87.35+ 1+ 25.9 98.0 34.3 90.8

Notes:Data are extracted from Bernard et al. (2007, Table 4), and Mayer and Ottaviano (2007, Table A1). Productsare defined as 10-digit Harmonised System categories.

2009 The AuthorJournal compilation Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2009

TWO AND A HALF THEORIES OF TRADE 3

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 10 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Large firms important in other ways too:

They grow just as quickly as small ones

Conventional view that small firms grow faster . . .. . . suffers from a statistical illusion

[Berthou-Vicard (2013)]

They are older

They do more R&D

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 11 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Large firms important in other ways too:

They grow just as quickly as small ones

Conventional view that small firms grow faster . . .. . . suffers from a statistical illusion

[Berthou-Vicard (2013)]

They are older

They do more R&D

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 11 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Large firms important in other ways too:

They grow just as quickly as small ones

Conventional view that small firms grow faster . . .. . . suffers from a statistical illusion

[Berthou-Vicard (2013)]

They are older

They do more R&D

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 11 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Large firms important in other ways too:

They grow just as quickly as small ones

Conventional view that small firms grow faster . . .. . . suffers from a statistical illusion

[Berthou-Vicard (2013)]

They are older

They do more R&D

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 11 / 39

Introduction

Motivation

Large firms important in other ways too:

They grow just as quickly as small ones

Conventional view that small firms grow faster . . .. . . suffers from a statistical illusion

[Berthou-Vicard (2013)]

They are older

They do more R&D

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 11 / 39

Introduction

So much for facts, what about theory?!

Mainstream model of firms in international trade:[Krugman (1980)-Melitz (2003)]

Strong assumptions about functional form

Market structure is monopolistic competition

. . . embedded in general equilibrium

Assumes rapid entry and exit

So: No “superstar” firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 12 / 39

Introduction

So much for facts, what about theory?!

Mainstream model of firms in international trade:[Krugman (1980)-Melitz (2003)]

Strong assumptions about functional form

Market structure is monopolistic competition

. . . embedded in general equilibrium

Assumes rapid entry and exit

So: No “superstar” firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 12 / 39

Introduction

So much for facts, what about theory?!

Mainstream model of firms in international trade:[Krugman (1980)-Melitz (2003)]

Strong assumptions about functional form

Market structure is monopolistic competition

. . . embedded in general equilibrium

Assumes rapid entry and exit

So: No “superstar” firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 12 / 39

Introduction

So much for facts, what about theory?!

Mainstream model of firms in international trade:[Krugman (1980)-Melitz (2003)]

Strong assumptions about functional form

Market structure is monopolistic competition

. . . embedded in general equilibrium

Assumes rapid entry and exit

So: No “superstar” firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 12 / 39

Introduction

So much for facts, what about theory?!

Mainstream model of firms in international trade:[Krugman (1980)-Melitz (2003)]

Strong assumptions about functional form

Market structure is monopolistic competition

. . . embedded in general equilibrium

Assumes rapid entry and exit

So: No “superstar” firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 12 / 39

Introduction

So much for facts, what about theory?!

Mainstream model of firms in international trade:[Krugman (1980)-Melitz (2003)]

Strong assumptions about functional form

Market structure is monopolistic competition

. . . embedded in general equilibrium

Assumes rapid entry and exit

So: No “superstar” firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 12 / 39

Introduction

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional Form

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 13 / 39

Functional Form

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional FormFrom General Demands to CESA Firm’s-Eye View of DemandCES and Super-ConvexityThe Demand ManifoldThe Pollak Demand FamilyGlobalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 14 / 39

Functional Form From General Demands to CES

From General Demands to CES

How to specify demands in monopolistic competition?

In principle: No restrictions [Chamberlin (1933)]

Key feature: Firms take not price but demand function as givenBut: Hard to get results or extend to general equilibrium

Breakthrough came with a specific tractable form: CES[Dixit-Stiglitz (1977)]

U =

[∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di]1/θ

, ux(i) = x(i)θ, 0 < θ < 1 (1)

⇔ x(i) = α[λp(i)]−1

1−θ (2)

Partial and general equilibrium linked cleanly by λEasy to work with theoretically, especially with symmetric goodsEasy to work with empirically: iso-elastic demand functionsBUT: Very special ...

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 15 / 39

Functional Form From General Demands to CES

From General Demands to CES

How to specify demands in monopolistic competition?

In principle: No restrictions [Chamberlin (1933)]

Key feature: Firms take not price but demand function as givenBut: Hard to get results or extend to general equilibrium

Breakthrough came with a specific tractable form: CES[Dixit-Stiglitz (1977)]

U =

[∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di]1/θ

, ux(i) = x(i)θ, 0 < θ < 1 (1)

⇔ x(i) = α[λp(i)]−1

1−θ (2)

Partial and general equilibrium linked cleanly by λEasy to work with theoretically, especially with symmetric goodsEasy to work with empirically: iso-elastic demand functionsBUT: Very special ...

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 15 / 39

Functional Form From General Demands to CES

From General Demands to CES

How to specify demands in monopolistic competition?

In principle: No restrictions [Chamberlin (1933)]

Key feature: Firms take not price but demand function as givenBut: Hard to get results or extend to general equilibrium

Breakthrough came with a specific tractable form: CES[Dixit-Stiglitz (1977)]

U =

[∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di]1/θ

, ux(i) = x(i)θ, 0 < θ < 1 (1)

⇔ x(i) = α[λp(i)]−1

1−θ (2)

Partial and general equilibrium linked cleanly by λEasy to work with theoretically, especially with symmetric goodsEasy to work with empirically: iso-elastic demand functionsBUT: Very special ...

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 15 / 39

Functional Form From General Demands to CES

From General Demands to CES

How to specify demands in monopolistic competition?

In principle: No restrictions [Chamberlin (1933)]

Key feature: Firms take not price but demand function as givenBut: Hard to get results or extend to general equilibrium

Breakthrough came with a specific tractable form: CES[Dixit-Stiglitz (1977)]

U =

[∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di]1/θ

, ux(i) = x(i)θ, 0 < θ < 1 (1)

⇔ x(i) = α[λp(i)]−1

1−θ (2)

Partial and general equilibrium linked cleanly by λEasy to work with theoretically, especially with symmetric goodsEasy to work with empirically: iso-elastic demand functionsBUT: Very special ...

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 15 / 39

Functional Form From General Demands to CES

From General Demands to CES

How to specify demands in monopolistic competition?

In principle: No restrictions [Chamberlin (1933)]

Key feature: Firms take not price but demand function as givenBut: Hard to get results or extend to general equilibrium

Breakthrough came with a specific tractable form: CES[Dixit-Stiglitz (1977)]

U =

[∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di]1/θ

, ux(i) = x(i)θ, 0 < θ < 1 (1)

⇔ x(i) = α[λp(i)]−1

1−θ (2)

Partial and general equilibrium linked cleanly by λEasy to work with theoretically, especially with symmetric goodsEasy to work with empirically: iso-elastic demand functions

BUT: Very special ...

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 15 / 39

Functional Form From General Demands to CES

From General Demands to CES

How to specify demands in monopolistic competition?

In principle: No restrictions [Chamberlin (1933)]

Key feature: Firms take not price but demand function as givenBut: Hard to get results or extend to general equilibrium

Breakthrough came with a specific tractable form: CES[Dixit-Stiglitz (1977)]

U =

[∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di]1/θ

, ux(i) = x(i)θ, 0 < θ < 1 (1)

⇔ x(i) = α[λp(i)]−1

1−θ (2)

Partial and general equilibrium linked cleanly by λEasy to work with theoretically, especially with symmetric goodsEasy to work with empirically: iso-elastic demand functionsBUT: Very special ...

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 15 / 39

Functional Form A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

Perceived inverse demand function:p = p(x) p′ < 0

Firm cares about:

1 Slope/Elasticity:

ε(x) ≡ − p(x)xp′(x) > 0

2 Curvature/Convexity:

ρ(x) ≡ −xp′′(x)p′(x)

4

4

3

2

11

0-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Alternative measures of slope and curvature . . .Skip

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 16 / 39

Functional Form A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

Perceived inverse demand function:p = p(x) p′ < 0

Firm cares about:

1 Slope/Elasticity:

ε(x) ≡ − p(x)xp′(x) > 0

2 Curvature/Convexity:

ρ(x) ≡ −xp′′(x)p′(x)

4

4

3

2

11

0-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Alternative measures of slope and curvature . . .Skip

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 16 / 39

Functional Form A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

Perceived inverse demand function:p = p(x) p′ < 0

Firm cares about:

1 Slope/Elasticity:

ε(x) ≡ − p(x)xp′(x) > 0

2 Curvature/Convexity:

ρ(x) ≡ −xp′′(x)p′(x)

4

4

3

2

11

0-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Alternative measures of slope and curvature . . .Skip

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 16 / 39

Functional Form A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

Perceived inverse demand function:p = p(x) p′ < 0

Firm cares about:

1 Slope/Elasticity:

ε(x) ≡ − p(x)xp′(x) > 0

2 Curvature/Convexity:

ρ(x) ≡ −xp′′(x)p′(x)

4

4

3

2

11

0-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Alternative measures of slope and curvature . . .Skip

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 16 / 39

Functional Form A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

The Admissible Region

For a monopoly firm:

First-order condition:p+ xp′ = c ≥ 0 ⇒ ε ≥ 1

Second-order condition:2p′ + xp′′ < 0 ⇒ ρ < 2

Both less stringent in oligopolyDetails

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 17 / 39

Functional Form A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

The Admissible Region

For a monopoly firm:

First-order condition:p+ xp′ = c ≥ 0 ⇒ ε ≥ 1

Second-order condition:2p′ + xp′′ < 0 ⇒ ρ < 2

Both less stringent in oligopolyDetails

4.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 17 / 39

Functional Form A Firm’s-Eye View of Demand

The Admissible Region

For a monopoly firm:

First-order condition:p+ xp′ = c ≥ 0 ⇒ ε ≥ 1

Second-order condition:2p′ + xp′′ < 0 ⇒ ρ < 2

Both less stringent in oligopolyDetails

4.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 17 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

CES Demands

In general, both ε and ρ vary withsales

Exception: CES/iso-elastic case:

p = βx−1/σ

⇒ ε = σ, ρ = σ+1σ > 1

⇒ ε = 1ρ−1

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Cobb-Douglas: ε = 1, ρ = 2; just on boundary of both FOC and SOC

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 18 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

CES Demands

In general, both ε and ρ vary withsales

Exception: CES/iso-elastic case:

p = βx−1/σ

⇒ ε = σ, ρ = σ+1σ > 1

⇒ ε = 1ρ−1

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Cobb-Douglas: ε = 1, ρ = 2; just on boundary of both FOC and SOC

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 18 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

CES Demands

In general, both ε and ρ vary withsales

Exception: CES/iso-elastic case:

p = βx−1/σ

⇒ ε = σ, ρ = σ+1σ > 1

⇒ ε = 1ρ−1

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Cobb-Douglas: ε = 1, ρ = 2; just on boundary of both FOC and SOC

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 18 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity

[Mrazova-Neary (2011)]

Definition :

p(x) is superconvex IFF log[p(x)] isconvex in log(x)

⇔ p(x) more convex than a CESdemand function with the sameelasticity

SCSuper-

4.0 Convex

A B

3.0 SubConvex

A B

2.0

C

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 19 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity

[Mrazova-Neary (2011)]

Definition :

p(x) is superconvex IFF log[p(x)] isconvex in log(x)

⇔ p(x) more convex than a CESdemand function with the sameelasticity

SCSuper-

4.0 Convex

A B

3.0 SubConvex

A B

2.0

C

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 19 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity

[Mrazova-Neary (2011)]

Definition :

p(x) is superconvex IFF log[p(x)] isconvex in log(x)

⇔ p(x) more convex than a CESdemand function with the sameelasticity

SCSuper-

4.0 Convex

A B

3.0 SubConvex

A B

2.0

C

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 19 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity and Sales

p(x) superconvex:⇔ ε increasing in sales: εx ≥ 0.

εx = εx

[ρ− ε+1

ε

]= ε

x

[ρ− ρCES

]1 ε decreases with sales to left2 ε is independent of sales only

along CES/SC locus3 ε increases with sales to right

Which is most plausible?

εx < 0: “Marshall’s 2nd Law of Demand”!

Marshall (1920), Krugman (1979)Linear/Quadratic, LES/Stone-Geary, CARA, etc.

The comparative-statics analogue of a phase diagram:

Arrows indicate direction as sales rise

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 20 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity and Sales

p(x) superconvex:⇔ ε increasing in sales: εx ≥ 0.

εx = εx

[ρ− ε+1

ε

]= ε

x

[ρ− ρCES

]

1 ε decreases with sales to left2 ε is independent of sales only

along CES/SC locus3 ε increases with sales to right

Which is most plausible?

εx < 0: “Marshall’s 2nd Law of Demand”!

Marshall (1920), Krugman (1979)Linear/Quadratic, LES/Stone-Geary, CARA, etc.

The comparative-statics analogue of a phase diagram:

Arrows indicate direction as sales rise

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 20 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity and Sales

p(x) superconvex:⇔ ε increasing in sales: εx ≥ 0.

εx = εx

[ρ− ε+1

ε

]= ε

x

[ρ− ρCES

]1 ε decreases with sales to left2 ε is independent of sales only

along CES/SC locus3 ε increases with sales to right

4.0

SC

4.0

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Which is most plausible?

εx < 0: “Marshall’s 2nd Law of Demand”!

Marshall (1920), Krugman (1979)Linear/Quadratic, LES/Stone-Geary, CARA, etc.

The comparative-statics analogue of a phase diagram:

Arrows indicate direction as sales rise

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 20 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity and Sales

p(x) superconvex:⇔ ε increasing in sales: εx ≥ 0.

εx = εx

[ρ− ε+1

ε

]= ε

x

[ρ− ρCES

]1 ε decreases with sales to left2 ε is independent of sales only

along CES/SC locus3 ε increases with sales to right

4.0

SC

4.0

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Which is most plausible?

εx < 0: “Marshall’s 2nd Law of Demand”!

Marshall (1920), Krugman (1979)Linear/Quadratic, LES/Stone-Geary, CARA, etc.

The comparative-statics analogue of a phase diagram:

Arrows indicate direction as sales rise

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 20 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity and Sales

p(x) superconvex:⇔ ε increasing in sales: εx ≥ 0.

εx = εx

[ρ− ε+1

ε

]= ε

x

[ρ− ρCES

]1 ε decreases with sales to left2 ε is independent of sales only

along CES/SC locus3 ε increases with sales to right

4.0

SC

4.0

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Which is most plausible?

εx < 0: “Marshall’s 2nd Law of Demand”!

Marshall (1920), Krugman (1979)Linear/Quadratic, LES/Stone-Geary, CARA, etc.

The comparative-statics analogue of a phase diagram:

Arrows indicate direction as sales rise

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 20 / 39

Functional Form CES and Super-Convexity

Super-Convexity and Sales

p(x) superconvex:⇔ ε increasing in sales: εx ≥ 0.

εx = εx

[ρ− ε+1

ε

]= ε

x

[ρ− ρCES

]1 ε decreases with sales to left2 ε is independent of sales only

along CES/SC locus3 ε increases with sales to right

4.0

SC

4.0

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Which is most plausible?

εx < 0: “Marshall’s 2nd Law of Demand”!

Marshall (1920), Krugman (1979)Linear/Quadratic, LES/Stone-Geary, CARA, etc.

The comparative-statics analogue of a phase diagram:

Arrows indicate direction as sales risePeter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 20 / 39

Functional Form The Demand Manifold

The Demand Manifold

For most demand functions:

ε(x) and ρ(x) can be solvedfor ε = E(ρ) ≡ ε [x(ρ)]

The “Demand Manifold”

Special cases:

CES: Collapses to a pointLinear: Collapses to a line

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

When is the Demand Manifold invariant to shocks?

p = p(x, φ) ⇒ ε = ε(x, φ), ρ = ρ(x, φ) ⇒ E(ρ, φ) = ε [X(ρ, φ), φ]

E is independent of φ in CES and linear cases. Does this generalize?

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 21 / 39

Functional Form The Demand Manifold

The Demand Manifold

For most demand functions:

ε(x) and ρ(x) can be solvedfor ε = E(ρ) ≡ ε [x(ρ)]The “Demand Manifold”

Special cases:

CES: Collapses to a pointLinear: Collapses to a line

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

When is the Demand Manifold invariant to shocks?

p = p(x, φ) ⇒ ε = ε(x, φ), ρ = ρ(x, φ) ⇒ E(ρ, φ) = ε [X(ρ, φ), φ]

E is independent of φ in CES and linear cases. Does this generalize?

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 21 / 39

Functional Form The Demand Manifold

The Demand Manifold

For most demand functions:

ε(x) and ρ(x) can be solvedfor ε = E(ρ) ≡ ε [x(ρ)]The “Demand Manifold”

Special cases:

CES: Collapses to a pointLinear: Collapses to a line

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

When is the Demand Manifold invariant to shocks?

p = p(x, φ) ⇒ ε = ε(x, φ), ρ = ρ(x, φ) ⇒ E(ρ, φ) = ε [X(ρ, φ), φ]

E is independent of φ in CES and linear cases. Does this generalize?

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 21 / 39

Functional Form The Demand Manifold

The Demand Manifold

For most demand functions:

ε(x) and ρ(x) can be solvedfor ε = E(ρ) ≡ ε [x(ρ)]The “Demand Manifold”

Special cases:

CES: Collapses to a pointLinear: Collapses to a line

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

When is the Demand Manifold invariant to shocks?

p = p(x, φ) ⇒ ε = ε(x, φ), ρ = ρ(x, φ) ⇒ E(ρ, φ) = ε [X(ρ, φ), φ]

E is independent of φ in CES and linear cases. Does this generalize?

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 21 / 39

Functional Form The Demand Manifold

The Demand Manifold

For most demand functions:

ε(x) and ρ(x) can be solvedfor ε = E(ρ) ≡ ε [x(ρ)]The “Demand Manifold”

Special cases:

CES: Collapses to a pointLinear: Collapses to a line

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

When is the Demand Manifold invariant to shocks?

p = p(x, φ) ⇒ ε = ε(x, φ), ρ = ρ(x, φ) ⇒ E(ρ, φ) = ε [X(ρ, φ), φ]

E is independent of φ in CES and linear cases. Does this generalize?

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 21 / 39

Functional Form The Demand Manifold

The Demand Manifold

For most demand functions:

ε(x) and ρ(x) can be solvedfor ε = E(ρ) ≡ ε [x(ρ)]The “Demand Manifold”

Special cases:

CES: Collapses to a pointLinear: Collapses to a line

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

When is the Demand Manifold invariant to shocks?

p = p(x, φ) ⇒ ε = ε(x, φ), ρ = ρ(x, φ) ⇒ E(ρ, φ) = ε [X(ρ, φ), φ]

E is independent of φ in CES and linear cases. Does this generalize?

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 21 / 39

Functional Form The Demand Manifold

The Demand Manifold

For most demand functions:

ε(x) and ρ(x) can be solvedfor ε = E(ρ) ≡ ε [x(ρ)]The “Demand Manifold”

Special cases:

CES: Collapses to a pointLinear: Collapses to a line

4.0

CES4.0

3.0

2.0Cobb-Douglas

1 0

Cobb Douglas

1.0

0.0-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

When is the Demand Manifold invariant to shocks?

p = p(x, φ) ⇒ ε = ε(x, φ), ρ = ρ(x, φ) ⇒ E(ρ, φ) = ε [X(ρ, φ), φ]

E is independent of φ in CES and linear cases. Does this generalize?

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 21 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0

1 01.0

SPT

= ∞

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0

1 01.0

SPT

= ∞= 3

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0

1 01.0

SPT

= ∞= 0= 3

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0= 0.8

1 0= 0.5

1.0

SPT

= ∞= 0= 3

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadratic

θ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0= 0.8

1 0

= 1.33

= 0.51.0

SPT

= 1.5 = ∞= 0= 3

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadratic

θ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0= 0.8

1 0

= 1.33

= 0.51.0

SPT

= 1.5 = 2 = ∞= 0= 3

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0= 0.8

1 0

= 1.33

= 0.51.0

SPT

= 1.5 = 2 = 3 = ∞= 0= 3

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 22 / 39

Functional Form The Pollak Demand Family

The Pollak Demand Family

x = γ + αp1

θ−1 , (x− γ)(1− θ) > 0

ε = 2−θ1−θ

θ → −∞: CARA

θ ∈ (−∞, 1): “Translated CES”:

θ ∈ (−∞, 0): TCES-I

θ = 0: Stone-Geary LES

θ ∈ (0, 1): TCES-II

θ ∈ (1,∞): “GeneralizedQuadratic”:

θ ∈ (1, 2): Sub-Quadraticθ = 2: Quadraticθ ∈ (2,∞): Super-Quadratic

4.0

SM

4.0

3.0SC

2.0= 0.8

1 0

= 1.33

= 0.51.0

SPT

= 1.5 = 2 = 3 = ∞= 0= 3

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

SPT

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 23 / 39

Functional Form Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Monopolistic competition

General equilibriumPollak Preferences

Gains from globalization:[Rise in number of countries k]

U =

[1− (ε− 1)2

ε2 (2− ρ)

]k

= 1/ε in CES case

Sufficient condition for U > 0:ρ < ε+1

ε i.e., subconvexity.

Welfare can fall if preferences are sufficiently superconvex

Diversity rises a lot, but prices increase

Welfare rises by more for lower ε and ρ

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 24 / 39

Functional Form Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Monopolistic competition

General equilibriumPollak Preferences

Gains from globalization:[Rise in number of countries k]

U =

[1− (ε− 1)2

ε2 (2− ρ)

]k

= 1/ε in CES case

Sufficient condition for U > 0:ρ < ε+1

ε i.e., subconvexity.

Welfare can fall if preferences are sufficiently superconvex

Diversity rises a lot, but prices increase

Welfare rises by more for lower ε and ρ

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 24 / 39

Functional Form Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Monopolistic competition

General equilibriumPollak Preferences

Gains from globalization:[Rise in number of countries k]

U =

[1− (ε− 1)2

ε2 (2− ρ)

]k

= 1/ε in CES case

Sufficient condition for U > 0:ρ < ε+1

ε i.e., subconvexity.

Welfare can fall if preferences are sufficiently superconvex

Diversity rises a lot, but prices increase

Welfare rises by more for lower ε and ρ

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 24 / 39

Functional Form Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Monopolistic competition

General equilibriumPollak Preferences

Gains from globalization:[Rise in number of countries k]

U =

[1− (ε− 1)2

ε2 (2− ρ)

]k

= 1/ε in CES case

Sufficient condition for U > 0:ρ < ε+1

ε i.e., subconvexity.

4.0

4.00ˆ U

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

Welfare can fall if preferences are sufficiently superconvex

Diversity rises a lot, but prices increase

Welfare rises by more for lower ε and ρ

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 24 / 39

Functional Form Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Monopolistic competition

General equilibriumPollak Preferences

Gains from globalization:[Rise in number of countries k]

U =

[1− (ε− 1)2

ε2 (2− ρ)

]k

= 1/ε in CES case

Sufficient condition for U > 0:ρ < ε+1

ε i.e., subconvexity.

4.0

4.00ˆ U

3.0

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

Welfare can fall if preferences are sufficiently superconvex

Diversity rises a lot, but prices increase

Welfare rises by more for lower ε and ρPeter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 24 / 39

Functional Form Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Globalization and Welfare with Pollak Preferences

Monopolistic competition

General equilibriumPollak Preferences

Gains from globalization:[Rise in number of countries k]

U =

[1− (ε− 1)2

ε2 (2− ρ)

]k

= 1/ε in CES case

Sufficient condition for U > 0:ρ < ε+1

ε i.e., subconvexity.

4.0

4.00ˆ UkU ˆ5.0ˆ

3.0 kU ˆ8.0ˆ

2.0

1 01.0

0.0-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

Welfare can fall if preferences are sufficiently superconvex

Diversity rises a lot, but prices increase

Welfare rises by more for lower ε and ρPeter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 24 / 39

Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional Form

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 25 / 39

Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

Monopolistic Competition

“New” trade theory borrowed from half of IO only

IO (Industrial Organization): Partial equilibrium onlyTrade: Oligopoly squeezed out by monopolistic competition

Monopolistic competition more plausible than perfect competition . . .

Differentiated productsIncreasing returnsSo: successful in explaining intra-industry trade

. . . but not much!

Firms are infinitesimalNo strategic behaviour

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 26 / 39

Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

Monopolistic Competition

“New” trade theory borrowed from half of IO only

IO (Industrial Organization): Partial equilibrium onlyTrade: Oligopoly squeezed out by monopolistic competition

Monopolistic competition more plausible than perfect competition . . .

Differentiated productsIncreasing returnsSo: successful in explaining intra-industry trade

. . . but not much!

Firms are infinitesimalNo strategic behaviour

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 26 / 39

Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

Monopolistic Competition

“New” trade theory borrowed from half of IO only

IO (Industrial Organization): Partial equilibrium onlyTrade: Oligopoly squeezed out by monopolistic competition

Monopolistic competition more plausible than perfect competition . . .

Differentiated productsIncreasing returnsSo: successful in explaining intra-industry trade

. . . but not much!

Firms are infinitesimalNo strategic behaviour

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 26 / 39

Free Entry

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional Form

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 27 / 39

Free Entry

Free Entry

Standard trade models assume instantaneous entry and exit

Entry and exit are much less important in the short runFrench firms adjusted along intensive margin in the crisis

[Bricongne, Fontagne, Gaulier and Taglioni (JIE 2012)]

U.S. firms adjust more along extensive margin the longer the timehorizon

[Bernard et al. (2007)]

Entry and exit are much less important for large firmsMelitz model assumes that probability of “death” is independent offirm size or productivityBut: very successful firms are typically older

Entry and exit are much less important for value of exports than forthe number of firms

Even with free entry, “natural oligopoly” may prevail if fixed costs canbe chosen endogenously[Dasgupta-Stiglitz (EJ 1980), Gabszewicz-Thisse (JET 1980), Shaked-Sutton (Em

1983)]

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 28 / 39

Free Entry

Free Entry

Standard trade models assume instantaneous entry and exitEntry and exit are much less important in the short run

French firms adjusted along intensive margin in the crisis[Bricongne, Fontagne, Gaulier and Taglioni (JIE 2012)]

U.S. firms adjust more along extensive margin the longer the timehorizon

[Bernard et al. (2007)]

Entry and exit are much less important for large firmsMelitz model assumes that probability of “death” is independent offirm size or productivityBut: very successful firms are typically older

Entry and exit are much less important for value of exports than forthe number of firms

Even with free entry, “natural oligopoly” may prevail if fixed costs canbe chosen endogenously[Dasgupta-Stiglitz (EJ 1980), Gabszewicz-Thisse (JET 1980), Shaked-Sutton (Em

1983)]

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 28 / 39

Free Entry

Free Entry

Standard trade models assume instantaneous entry and exitEntry and exit are much less important in the short run

French firms adjusted along intensive margin in the crisis[Bricongne, Fontagne, Gaulier and Taglioni (JIE 2012)]

U.S. firms adjust more along extensive margin the longer the timehorizon

[Bernard et al. (2007)]

Entry and exit are much less important for large firmsMelitz model assumes that probability of “death” is independent offirm size or productivityBut: very successful firms are typically older

Entry and exit are much less important for value of exports than forthe number of firms

Even with free entry, “natural oligopoly” may prevail if fixed costs canbe chosen endogenously[Dasgupta-Stiglitz (EJ 1980), Gabszewicz-Thisse (JET 1980), Shaked-Sutton (Em

1983)]

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 28 / 39

Free Entry

Free Entry

Standard trade models assume instantaneous entry and exitEntry and exit are much less important in the short run

French firms adjusted along intensive margin in the crisis[Bricongne, Fontagne, Gaulier and Taglioni (JIE 2012)]

U.S. firms adjust more along extensive margin the longer the timehorizon

[Bernard et al. (2007)]

Entry and exit are much less important for large firmsMelitz model assumes that probability of “death” is independent offirm size or productivityBut: very successful firms are typically older

Entry and exit are much less important for value of exports than forthe number of firms

Even with free entry, “natural oligopoly” may prevail if fixed costs canbe chosen endogenously[Dasgupta-Stiglitz (EJ 1980), Gabszewicz-Thisse (JET 1980), Shaked-Sutton (Em

1983)]

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 28 / 39

Free Entry

Free-Entry Cournot: Market Size and Firm Numbers

1

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

n

s

Cournot Competition: Equilibrium n as a Function of Market Size

Real

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 29 / 39

Free Entry

Free-Entry Cournot with Integer Firms

1

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

n

s

Cournot Competition: Equilibrium n as a Function of Market Size

Real

Integer

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 30 / 39

Free Entry

Natural Oligopoly: Market Size and Firm Numbers

1

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

n

s

Equilibrium Real n as a Function of Market Size

h=0.0

h=0.2

h=0.4

h=0.6

h=0.8

h=1.0

h=1.2

h=1.4

h=1.6

h=1.8

h=2.0

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 31 / 39

Free Entry

Natural Oligopoly with Integer Firms

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

n

s

Equilibrium Integer n as a Function of Market Size

h=0.0

h=0.2

h=0.4

h=0.6

h=0.8

h=1.0

h=1.2

h=1.4

h=1.6

h=1.8

h=2.0

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 32 / 39

General Equilibrium

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional Form

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 33 / 39

General Equilibrium

General Equilibrium

Core questions in trade are general equilibrium

In the sense of requiring interactions between goods and factor markets

Theoretical barriers to putting “OLigopoly” into “GE”: “GOLE”

Do large firms affect wages? national income? the price level?

Resolution: View firms as “large in the small, small in the large”[Hart (QJE, 1982), Neary (JEEA 2003)]

Like monopolistic competition but more firms in each sector

U =

∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di ⇔ x(i) = x[λp(i)] (3)

Application: Cross-border mergers [Neary (REStud 2007)]

Mergers may be for strategic or synergistic reasonsIn partial equilibrium, strategic mergers must lower consumer surplusIn GE, they can raise welfare if resources are reallocated to moreefficient firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 34 / 39

General Equilibrium

General Equilibrium

Core questions in trade are general equilibrium

In the sense of requiring interactions between goods and factor markets

Theoretical barriers to putting “OLigopoly” into “GE”: “GOLE”

Do large firms affect wages? national income? the price level?

Resolution: View firms as “large in the small, small in the large”[Hart (QJE, 1982), Neary (JEEA 2003)]

Like monopolistic competition but more firms in each sector

U =

∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di ⇔ x(i) = x[λp(i)] (3)

Application: Cross-border mergers [Neary (REStud 2007)]

Mergers may be for strategic or synergistic reasonsIn partial equilibrium, strategic mergers must lower consumer surplusIn GE, they can raise welfare if resources are reallocated to moreefficient firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 34 / 39

General Equilibrium

General Equilibrium

Core questions in trade are general equilibrium

In the sense of requiring interactions between goods and factor markets

Theoretical barriers to putting “OLigopoly” into “GE”: “GOLE”

Do large firms affect wages? national income? the price level?

Resolution: View firms as “large in the small, small in the large”[Hart (QJE, 1982), Neary (JEEA 2003)]

Like monopolistic competition but more firms in each sector

U =

∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di ⇔ x(i) = x[λp(i)] (3)

Application: Cross-border mergers [Neary (REStud 2007)]

Mergers may be for strategic or synergistic reasonsIn partial equilibrium, strategic mergers must lower consumer surplusIn GE, they can raise welfare if resources are reallocated to moreefficient firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 34 / 39

General Equilibrium

General Equilibrium

Core questions in trade are general equilibrium

In the sense of requiring interactions between goods and factor markets

Theoretical barriers to putting “OLigopoly” into “GE”: “GOLE”

Do large firms affect wages? national income? the price level?

Resolution: View firms as “large in the small, small in the large”[Hart (QJE, 1982), Neary (JEEA 2003)]

Like monopolistic competition but more firms in each sector

U =

∫i∈Ω

ux(i)di ⇔ x(i) = x[λp(i)] (3)

Application: Cross-border mergers [Neary (REStud 2007)]

Mergers may be for strategic or synergistic reasonsIn partial equilibrium, strategic mergers must lower consumer surplusIn GE, they can raise welfare if resources are reallocated to moreefficient firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 34 / 39

Superstar Firms

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional Form

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 35 / 39

Superstar Firms

Superstar Firms

Evidence suggests large firms are different in more than just scale

Bimodality in the data suggests a modelling strategy:

Oligopoly of multi-product firm . . .. . . plus a monopolistically competitive fringe

Technically: Each large firm produces a finite measure of goodsAll products are differentiated and of measure zeroFits with recent work on multi-product firms in trade

[Eckel and Neary (REStud 2010), Bernard et al. (QJE 2011)]

Some progress to date:

“David and Goliath”: Neary (WE 2009), Shimomura and Thisse (RJE

2012), Parenti (2012)

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 36 / 39

Superstar Firms

Superstar Firms

Evidence suggests large firms are different in more than just scale

Bimodality in the data suggests a modelling strategy:

Oligopoly of multi-product firm . . .. . . plus a monopolistically competitive fringe

Technically: Each large firm produces a finite measure of goodsAll products are differentiated and of measure zeroFits with recent work on multi-product firms in trade

[Eckel and Neary (REStud 2010), Bernard et al. (QJE 2011)]

Some progress to date:

“David and Goliath”: Neary (WE 2009), Shimomura and Thisse (RJE

2012), Parenti (2012)

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 36 / 39

Conclusion

Outline of the Talk

1 Introduction

2 Functional Form

3 Monopolistic Competition versus Oligopoly

4 Free Entry

5 General Equilibrium

6 Superstar Firms

7 Conclusion

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 37 / 39

Conclusion

The Best Model for a Globalized World?

Not one but many

Plausible, falsifiable, simple (but not too much so!)

Some desirable features:

Not too reliant on special functional formsRecognise strategic behaviour by large firmsAllow for general equilibrium. . . and for free entry, at least by small firmsAllow for superstar firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 38 / 39

Conclusion

The Best Model for a Globalized World?

Not one but many

Plausible, falsifiable, simple (but not too much so!)

Some desirable features:

Not too reliant on special functional formsRecognise strategic behaviour by large firmsAllow for general equilibrium. . . and for free entry, at least by small firmsAllow for superstar firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 38 / 39

Conclusion

The Best Model for a Globalized World?

Not one but many

Plausible, falsifiable, simple (but not too much so!)

Some desirable features:

Not too reliant on special functional formsRecognise strategic behaviour by large firmsAllow for general equilibrium. . . and for free entry, at least by small firmsAllow for superstar firms

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 38 / 39

Conclusion

Thanks and Acknowledgements

Thank you for listening. Comments welcome!

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s

Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), ERC grant agreement no. 295669. The contents reflect only the authors’

views and not the views of the ERC or the European Commission, and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be

made of the information contained therein.

Peter Neary (Oxford) Globalization and Firms March 6, 2013 39 / 39

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